# session /tmp/ab/j113_bb_vs_tmh
# commit=ed25ce29ad28838eaf726137e60c036e8ed70de3 binary_sha256=0fea927b5e0e17d1f82791bb620c08f1a460c074f3d21211bddc9c75f3bf1b93 rounds=7 runs=15 conc=7 ts=2026-09-25T23:41:38+02:00

ARM SUMMARY
arm            runs  dmg/run dmgtk/run    wins   win% shots/run hitstk/run
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
pattern          15      302       238  48/105   45.7       761       99.4
bb_id            15      296       217  50/105   47.6       787       97.5
bb_learn         15      276       217  39/105   37.1       761      100.3
tmh              15      294       220  46/105   43.8       753       96.0

PER-RUN (never just the mean)
  pattern        dmg:  r1=315 r2=262 r3=299 r4=284 r5=266 r6=274 r7=300 r8=280 r9=309 r10=358 r11=273 r12=338 r13=334 r14=320 r15=321
                 wins: r1=3/7 r2=2/7 r3=5/7 r4=1/7 r5=1/7 r6=4/7 r7=5/7 r8=3/7 r9=3/7 r10=4/7 r11=3/7 r12=4/7 r13=3/7 r14=3/7 r15=4/7
  bb_id          dmg:  r1=294 r2=279 r3=320 r4=272 r5=328 r6=305 r7=338 r8=337 r9=299 r10=328 r11=281 r12=226 r13=247 r14=297 r15=292
                 wins: r1=3/7 r2=4/7 r3=4/7 r4=3/7 r5=4/7 r6=3/7 r7=4/7 r8=5/7 r9=2/7 r10=4/7 r11=3/7 r12=2/7 r13=2/7 r14=4/7 r15=3/7
  bb_learn       dmg:  r1=204 r2=297 r3=284 r4=272 r5=257 r6=296 r7=311 r8=295 r9=237 r10=238 r11=320 r12=304 r13=225 r14=260 r15=345
                 wins: r1=2/7 r2=4/7 r3=1/7 r4=2/7 r5=3/7 r6=3/7 r7=3/7 r8=3/7 r9=1/7 r10=2/7 r11=4/7 r12=4/7 r13=1/7 r14=2/7 r15=4/7
  tmh            dmg:  r1=279 r2=307 r3=258 r4=307 r5=262 r6=323 r7=267 r8=260 r9=320 r10=305 r11=318 r12=335 r13=306 r14=290 r15=267
                 wins: r1=2/7 r2=4/7 r3=3/7 r4=3/7 r5=3/7 r6=2/7 r7=2/7 r8=3/7 r9=5/7 r10=4/7 r11=4/7 r12=3/7 r13=2/7 r14=4/7 r15=2/7

PAIRWISE PERMUTATION TEST (per-run values) + MANN-WHITNEY CROSS-CHECK
permutation: exact when C(n,na) <= 20,000,000; otherwise Monte-Carlo 1,000,000 draws, seed=0x5eed5eed, p = (cnt+1)/(B+1), se = sqrt(p(1-p)/(B+1))
metric      A           B             diff(A-B)    perm p method         MC se      MW p     MW U
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
dmg/run     pattern     bb_id            +5.967    0.5968 MC/B=1,000,000  0.0005    0.7716    105.0
round wins  pattern     bb_id            -0.133    0.8647 MC/B=1,000,000  0.0003    0.8450    107.5
dmg/run     pattern     bb_learn        +25.894    0.0483 MC/B=1,000,000  0.0002    0.0620     67.0
round wins  pattern     bb_learn         +0.600    0.2197 MC/B=1,000,000  0.0004    0.1837     81.0
dmg/run     pattern     tmh              +8.448    0.4038 MC/B=1,000,000  0.0005    0.4306     93.0
round wins  pattern     tmh              +0.133    0.8671 MC/B=1,000,000  0.0003    0.6196    100.5
dmg/run     bb_id       bb_learn        +19.927    0.1386 MC/B=1,000,000  0.0003    0.1844     80.0
round wins  bb_id       bb_learn         +0.733    0.0853 MC/B=1,000,000  0.0003    0.0842     72.0
dmg/run     bb_id       tmh              +2.481    0.8174 MC/B=1,000,000  0.0004    0.7089    103.0
round wins  bb_id       tmh              +0.267    0.5574 MC/B=1,000,000  0.0005    0.4206     93.5
dmg/run     bb_learn    tmh             -17.446    0.1600 MC/B=1,000,000  0.0004    0.1585     78.0
round wins  bb_learn    tmh              -0.467    0.3019 MC/B=1,000,000  0.0005    0.3012     88.0

MINIMUM DETECTABLE EFFECT (two-sample, alpha=0.05 two-sided, 80% power; MDE = 2.8016*sd*sqrt(2/n))
metric       n/arm  sd(control)   MDE(abs)    MDE vs control mean
----------------------------------------------------------------
dmg/run         15       28.854     29.517          9.8% of 302.2
round wins      15        1.207      1.235           38.6% of 3.2

ROUND-LEVEL TEST (pooled rounds, Fisher exact) vs `pattern` — ANTI-CONSERVATIVE: rounds cluster within runs
arm              ref wins   arm wins        p
----------------------------------------------
bb_id              48/105     50/105   0.8900
bb_learn           48/105     39/105   0.2624
tmh                48/105     46/105   0.8897

LIVENESS (arm env applied in the bot's own boot report)
  pattern        OK   (15/15 runs: no arm env; report present)
  bb_id          OK   (15/15 runs: TR_RACK_PATTERN=off TR_RACK_BITBRAIN=both TR_BITBRAIN_GAINS=1.0 applied)
  bb_learn       OK   (15/15 runs: TR_RACK_PATTERN=off TR_RACK_BITBRAIN=both TR_BITBRAIN_GAINS=1.0,1.25,1.5,2.0 TR_BITBRAIN_MEM=decay applied)
  tmh            OK   (15/15 runs: TR_RACK_PATTERN=off TR_RACK_TMHORIZON=both applied)

[bb] APPLIED-SHIFT CHECK (from bot stdout; needs TR_BITBRAIN_LOG=1). A provably-zero placebo emits ZERO [bb] lines.
  arm             runs w/log   lines       min       max  zeros
  pattern           0/15         0         -         -      -
  bb_id             0/15         0         -         -      -
  bb_learn          0/15         0         -         -      -
  tmh               0/15         0         -         -      -

ROUND-WIN ATTRIBUTION (events primary; score tie-break for mutual-kill / timeout rounds)
  pattern        wins==firstPlaces 15/15 runs OK; single-death rounds agree with score 104/104 (1 tie-broken)
  bb_id          wins==firstPlaces 15/15 runs OK; single-death rounds agree with score 104/104 (1 tie-broken)
  bb_learn       wins==firstPlaces 15/15 runs OK; single-death rounds agree with score 105/105 (0 tie-broken)
  tmh            wins==firstPlaces 15/15 runs OK; single-death rounds agree with score 104/104 (1 tie-broken)
