# session /tmp/ab/heatshift
# commit=f58d65d2e8206cebd5b7d0a9465950dd9e6d2c28 binary_sha256=74fd010ed1ffc4bb8a8de5569f58843479e1f50164a8a3f61e9c81cef108eaef rounds=7 runs=10 conc=7 ts=2026-09-25T22:09:42+02:00

ARM SUMMARY
arm            runs  dmg/run dmgtk/run    wins   win% shots/run hitstk/run
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
old              10      287       202   35/70   50.0       783       93.5
pillaoff         10      282       232   30/70   42.9       729       95.0
tau3             10      261       299   20/70   28.6       666      106.2
tau5             10      250       294   18/70   25.7       689      105.3
tau9             10      265       231   22/70   31.4       750       99.5
tau15            10      265       185   32/70   45.7       812       89.5

PER-RUN (never just the mean)
  old            dmg:  r1=271 r2=273 r3=255 r4=270 r5=282 r6=309 r7=338 r8=305 r9=266 r10=306
                 wins: r1=3/7 r2=4/7 r3=4/7 r4=2/7 r5=2/7 r6=4/7 r7=4/7 r8=4/7 r9=3/7 r10=5/7
  pillaoff       dmg:  r1=207 r2=332 r3=263 r4=332 r5=286 r6=280 r7=244 r8=269 r9=311 r10=294
                 wins: r1=1/7 r2=5/7 r3=2/7 r4=4/7 r5=4/7 r6=3/7 r7=2/7 r8=2/7 r9=4/7 r10=3/7
  tau3           dmg:  r1=213 r2=296 r3=182 r4=285 r5=283 r6=220 r7=290 r8=304 r9=245 r10=293
                 wins: r1=1/7 r2=3/7 r3=1/7 r4=3/7 r5=3/7 r6=1/7 r7=4/7 r8=1/7 r9=2/7 r10=1/7
  tau5           dmg:  r1=272 r2=235 r3=241 r4=236 r5=281 r6=295 r7=248 r8=243 r9=218 r10=225
                 wins: r1=2/7 r2=2/7 r3=2/7 r4=1/7 r5=3/7 r6=1/7 r7=2/7 r8=2/7 r9=2/7 r10=1/7
  tau9           dmg:  r1=295 r2=283 r3=275 r4=239 r5=268 r6=258 r7=280 r8=262 r9=228 r10=266
                 wins: r1=3/7 r2=3/7 r3=2/7 r4=2/7 r5=2/7 r6=3/7 r7=2/7 r8=3/7 r9=1/7 r10=1/7
  tau15          dmg:  r1=266 r2=264 r3=258 r4=239 r5=278 r6=291 r7=230 r8=286 r9=283 r10=261
                 wins: r1=3/7 r2=4/7 r3=3/7 r4=2/7 r5=4/7 r6=4/7 r7=2/7 r8=4/7 r9=4/7 r10=2/7

PAIRWISE PERMUTATION TEST (per-run values) + MANN-WHITNEY CROSS-CHECK
permutation: exact when C(n,na) <= 20,000,000; otherwise Monte-Carlo 1,000,000 draws, seed=0x5eed5eed, p = (cnt+1)/(B+1), se = sqrt(p(1-p)/(B+1))
metric      A           B             diff(A-B)    perm p method         MC se      MW p     MW U
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
dmg/run     old         pillaoff         +5.658    0.7096 exact              -    0.8501     47.0
round wins  old         pillaoff         +0.500    0.4317 exact              -    0.3631     38.0
dmg/run     old         tau3            +26.343    0.1137 exact              -    0.3075     36.0
round wins  old         tau3             +1.500    0.0125 exact              -    0.0101     16.5
dmg/run     old         tau5            +37.893    0.0042 exact              -    0.0091     15.0
round wins  old         tau5             +1.700    0.0010 exact              -    0.0014      9.0
dmg/run     old         tau9            +22.056    0.0468 exact              -    0.1041     28.0
round wins  old         tau9             +1.300    0.0097 exact              -    0.0087     16.0
dmg/run     old         tau15           +22.039    0.0460 exact              -    0.1041     28.0
round wins  old         tau15            +0.300    0.6369 exact              -    0.5127     41.5
dmg/run     pillaoff    tau3            +20.686    0.2721 exact              -    0.4727     40.0
round wins  pillaoff    tau3             +1.000    0.1149 exact              -    0.0869     27.5
dmg/run     pillaoff    tau5            +32.236    0.0429 exact              -    0.0539     24.0
round wins  pillaoff    tau5             +1.200    0.0262 exact              -    0.0254     21.5
dmg/run     pillaoff    tau9            +16.398    0.2543 exact              -    0.1859     32.0
round wins  pillaoff    tau9             +0.800    0.1548 exact              -    0.1461     31.0
dmg/run     pillaoff    tau15           +16.382    0.2531 exact              -    0.1859     32.0
round wins  pillaoff    tau15            -0.200    0.8378 exact              -    0.7204     45.0
dmg/run     tau3        tau5            +11.550    0.4674 exact              -    0.3447     37.0
round wins  tau3        tau5             +0.200    0.8121 exact              -    0.9042     48.0
dmg/run     tau3        tau9             -4.287    0.7791 exact              -    0.5708     42.0
round wins  tau3        tau9             -0.200    0.8197 exact              -    0.6047     43.0
dmg/run     tau3        tau15            -4.304    0.7776 exact              -    0.6232     43.0
round wins  tau3        tau15            -1.200    0.0356 exact              -    0.0260     21.0
dmg/run     tau5        tau9            -15.837    0.1359 exact              -    0.1859     32.0
round wins  tau5        tau9             -0.400    0.3567 exact              -    0.2333     35.0
dmg/run     tau5        tau15           -15.854    0.1337 exact              -    0.1620     31.0
round wins  tau5        tau15            -1.400    0.0034 exact              -    0.0034     13.0
dmg/run     tau9        tau15            -0.017    0.9984 exact              -    1.0000     50.0
round wins  tau9        tau15            -1.000    0.0356 exact              -    0.0298     22.0

MINIMUM DETECTABLE EFFECT (two-sample, alpha=0.05 two-sided, 80% power; MDE = 2.8016*sd*sqrt(2/n))
metric       n/arm  sd(control)   MDE(abs)    MDE vs control mean
----------------------------------------------------------------
dmg/run         10       25.982     32.553         11.3% of 287.5
round wins      10        0.972      1.218           34.8% of 3.5

ROUND-LEVEL TEST (pooled rounds, Fisher exact) vs `old` — ANTI-CONSERVATIVE: rounds cluster within runs
arm              ref wins   arm wins        p
----------------------------------------------
pillaoff            35/70      30/70   0.4980
tau3                35/70      20/70   0.0150
tau5                35/70      18/70   0.0051
tau9                35/70      22/70   0.0386
tau15               35/70      32/70   0.7352

LIVENESS (arm env applied in the bot's own boot report)
  old            OK   (10/10 runs: TR_TFIL_PILLAR_ON=1 TR_TFIL_HEAT_TIME=0 applied)
  pillaoff       OK   (10/10 runs: no arm env; report present)
  tau3           OK   (10/10 runs: TR_TFIL_HEAT_TIME=1 TR_TFIL_HEAT_TAU=3 applied)
  tau5           OK   (10/10 runs: TR_TFIL_HEAT_TIME=1 TR_TFIL_HEAT_TAU=5 applied)
  tau9           OK   (10/10 runs: TR_TFIL_HEAT_TIME=1 TR_TFIL_HEAT_TAU=9 applied)
  tau15          OK   (10/10 runs: TR_TFIL_HEAT_TIME=1 TR_TFIL_HEAT_TAU=15 applied)

[bb] APPLIED-SHIFT CHECK (from bot stdout; needs TR_BITBRAIN_LOG=1). A provably-zero placebo emits ZERO [bb] lines.
  arm             runs w/log   lines       min       max  zeros
  old               0/10         0         -         -      -
  pillaoff          0/10         0         -         -      -
  tau3              0/10         0         -         -      -
  tau5              0/10         0         -         -      -
  tau9              0/10         0         -         -      -
  tau15             0/10         0         -         -      -

ROUND-WIN ATTRIBUTION (events primary; score tie-break for mutual-kill / timeout rounds)
  old            wins==firstPlaces 10/10 runs OK; single-death rounds agree with score 70/70 (0 tie-broken)
  pillaoff       wins==firstPlaces 10/10 runs OK; single-death rounds agree with score 70/70 (0 tie-broken)
  tau3           wins==firstPlaces 10/10 runs OK; single-death rounds agree with score 69/69 (1 tie-broken)
  tau5           wins==firstPlaces 10/10 runs OK; single-death rounds agree with score 69/69 (1 tie-broken)
  tau9           wins==firstPlaces 10/10 runs OK; single-death rounds agree with score 70/70 (0 tie-broken)
  tau15          wins==firstPlaces 10/10 runs OK; single-death rounds agree with score 69/69 (1 tie-broken)
