==========================================================================================
GATE 2 - does a learned Tsetlin model SHRINK THE MISS (and turn it into hits)?
==========================================================================================
fixtures          : tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl, tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl
bits              : 53 (49 draft + 4 horizon one-hot)
TM                : 50 clauses, 64 states, s=3.0, 5 epochs, fresh per round
split             : within-round, train first 70.%, eval later portion
label             : side=sign(err); mag=|err| > train median (per round,h)
estimated hit     : |residual| < atan(18px / range)  -- ABSOLUTE IS OPTIMISTIC
bullet block      : INFERRED from self-energy drops (no gun heading recorded)
==========================================================================================

## FIXTURE tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl: 15 rounds, 20026 ticks
  round  1 (L= 1252)   nEval/h = [361, 356, 351, 346]
    h   arm       med    p90   hit%
     15 naive       4.20  11.73   30.2
     15 TM          4.54  12.06   29.9
     15 shuffled    4.61  12.88   25.8
     15 turn-only   4.24  12.18   28.8
     15 majority    4.43  12.59   27.4
     20 naive       6.41  18.49   16.0
     20 TM          6.19  18.21   19.1
     20 shuffled    6.29  18.78   19.9
     20 turn-only   6.34  19.95   23.9
     20 majority    8.42  20.37   12.4
     25 naive       8.45  26.51   12.3
     25 TM          9.14  22.74    8.3
     25 shuffled    8.79  26.66   14.2
     25 turn-only   8.54  27.24   18.2
     25 majority   12.37  28.14    7.4
     30 naive       8.91  33.37   13.3
     30 TM         11.18  29.74    6.6
     30 shuffled    9.12  34.64   11.8
     30 turn-only   9.77  34.25   13.9
     30 majority   14.50  36.56    6.4

  round  2 (L= 1416)   nEval/h = [410, 405, 400, 395]
    h   arm       med    p90   hit%
     15 naive       2.49  13.34   47.8
     15 TM          4.42  11.90   28.8
     15 shuffled    2.41  13.33   47.6
     15 turn-only   2.41  13.36   47.3
     15 majority    2.37  13.37   47.6
     20 naive       4.91  21.45   35.6
     20 TM          7.21  17.83   25.2
     20 shuffled    5.75  20.51   24.0
     20 turn-only   4.75  21.65   37.0
     20 majority    4.67  21.45   37.5
     25 naive       7.54  29.02   28.8
     25 TM          8.97  27.06   21.8
     25 shuffled    8.09  29.37   27.5
     25 turn-only   6.82  29.59   13.8
     25 majority    7.83  29.07   30.0
     30 naive      12.27  36.16   21.8
     30 TM         10.55  31.84   13.7
     30 shuffled   12.15  36.11   20.0
     30 turn-only  11.65  38.61    5.3
     30 majority   11.32  37.03    9.1

  round  3 (L=  845)   nEval/h = [239, 234, 229, 224]
    h   arm       med    p90   hit%
     15 naive       1.09  13.57   59.4
     15 TM          1.08  13.53   59.8
     15 shuffled    0.87  15.76   60.7
     15 turn-only   1.14  13.51   59.4
     15 majority    1.14  13.53   59.8
     20 naive       2.94  23.90   46.2
     20 TM          3.27  22.89   43.2
     20 shuffled    3.53  22.96   45.7
     20 turn-only   3.08  23.56   46.2
     20 majority    3.11  23.46   46.6
     25 naive       7.12  32.44   29.3
     25 TM          6.66  31.73   21.4
     25 shuffled    5.73  32.90   28.8
     25 turn-only   6.76  33.33   25.3
     25 majority    6.85  33.39   14.8
     30 naive      10.18  42.99   17.9
     30 TM         12.32  40.72   20.1
     30 shuffled   10.54  42.91   13.8
     30 turn-only   9.87  42.69   10.3
     30 majority   12.82  44.87   14.7

  round  4 (L= 1446)   nEval/h = [419, 414, 409, 404]
    h   arm       med    p90   hit%
     15 naive       4.97  11.21   23.9
     15 TM          4.77  12.28   24.3
     15 shuffled    5.70  12.72   19.8
     15 turn-only   5.21  11.09   18.9
     15 majority   15.12  24.97    1.4
     20 naive       7.53  16.45   13.5
     20 TM          6.59  16.82   12.3
     20 shuffled    6.97  16.50   13.3
     20 turn-only   7.46  16.43   11.8
     20 majority   20.42  34.48    1.0
     25 naive       9.99  23.25   10.5
     25 TM          9.03  22.95   11.7
     25 shuffled    9.06  22.07   11.7
     25 turn-only   9.27  23.93    8.3
     25 majority   10.05  23.18   10.3
     30 naive      12.60  29.60    6.9
     30 TM         11.19  29.12    8.7
     30 shuffled   13.10  30.15    8.2
     30 turn-only  11.19  32.25   10.1
     30 majority   14.26  32.58    7.4

  round  5 (L= 1893)   nEval/h = [553, 548, 543, 538]
    h   arm       med    p90   hit%
     15 naive       3.33  13.59   44.7
     15 TM          3.13  13.70   45.4
     15 shuffled    3.46  13.88   44.8
     15 turn-only   3.47  13.67   44.5
     15 majority    3.49  13.69   44.7
     20 naive       5.75  21.91   34.9
     20 TM          5.23  21.62   31.8
     20 shuffled    5.75  21.51   29.4
     20 turn-only   5.93  21.45   33.2
     20 majority    5.99  21.52   33.4
     25 naive       8.09  29.86   27.6
     25 TM          6.89  29.83   17.5
     25 shuffled    8.08  30.20   21.2
     25 turn-only   8.70  28.02   25.4
     25 majority    7.89  29.97   19.7
     30 naive      11.17  35.88   21.2
     30 TM          9.42  36.62   15.4
     30 shuffled   11.73  36.79   18.6
     30 turn-only  13.18  35.16   16.0
     30 majority   11.31  36.80   18.0

  round  6 (L= 1080)   nEval/h = [309, 304, 299, 294]
    h   arm       med    p90   hit%
     15 naive       6.66  13.01   20.7
     15 TM          6.26  12.61   17.5
     15 shuffled    6.66  12.95   20.4
     15 turn-only   6.63  13.22   21.4
     15 majority    6.59  13.06   21.0
     20 naive       9.00  20.62   12.2
     20 TM          8.75  18.74   13.2
     20 shuffled    8.33  20.37    9.5
     20 turn-only   9.09  20.19   11.5
     20 majority    9.33  20.49   10.2
     25 naive      11.36  26.48    8.0
     25 TM          9.05  23.09   11.4
     25 shuffled   11.37  24.85    7.4
     25 turn-only  11.74  26.58    8.0
     25 majority   11.79  26.69    8.7
     30 naive      14.01  32.46    6.5
     30 TM         10.03  29.06   13.6
     30 shuffled   14.62  30.36    6.5
     30 turn-only  13.43  34.41    7.8
     30 majority   16.18  33.44    9.2

  round  7 (L= 1460)   nEval/h = [424, 419, 414, 409]
    h   arm       med    p90   hit%
     15 naive       4.85  14.20   33.5
     15 TM          5.08  13.66   27.1
     15 shuffled    5.94  14.94   25.0
     15 turn-only   4.91  13.38   28.1
     15 majority    5.42  14.60   12.5
     20 naive       7.32  20.48   21.7
     20 TM          8.11  19.04   11.5
     20 shuffled    8.28  22.02   17.9
     20 turn-only   7.95  19.53   17.2
     20 majority   10.65  24.69    6.2
     25 naive      10.81  28.52   16.4
     25 TM         10.16  26.15    8.7
     25 shuffled   10.57  29.74   12.3
     25 turn-only  10.86  26.00    7.5
     25 majority   11.00  28.21   12.3
     30 naive      14.36  34.95    9.5
     30 TM         13.26  32.06    5.9
     30 shuffled   13.98  36.75    9.5
     30 turn-only  14.50  32.50    6.4
     30 majority   15.87  37.15    6.1

  round  8 (L= 1213)   nEval/h = [349, 344, 339, 334]
    h   arm       med    p90   hit%
     15 naive       3.89  15.17   37.2
     15 TM          4.06  13.55   38.7
     15 shuffled    4.09  15.10   40.4
     15 turn-only   4.05  14.61   39.3
     15 majority    5.07  15.52   14.9
     20 naive       7.39  21.18   30.5
     20 TM          6.32  21.44   32.0
     20 shuffled    7.40  21.26   33.1
     20 turn-only   6.41  21.56   25.6
     20 majority    8.84  25.31    9.9
     25 naive      10.75  26.76   28.3
     25 TM          7.12  29.72   23.9
     25 shuffled   10.58  26.34   27.4
     25 turn-only   8.72  27.68   24.8
     25 majority   10.70  26.94   29.5
     30 naive      13.98  31.31   24.9
     30 TM          6.90  32.68   20.7
     30 shuffled   13.35  32.35   23.4
     30 turn-only  10.82  33.81   21.3
     30 majority   17.49  45.34   12.0

  round  9 (L= 1759)   nEval/h = [513, 508, 503, 498]
    h   arm       med    p90   hit%
     15 naive       2.58  14.40   49.3
     15 TM          4.59  13.54   19.9
     15 shuffled    3.41  15.24   37.6
     15 turn-only   2.94  13.76   47.4
     15 majority    5.89  16.30   13.3
     20 naive       5.52  22.86   37.0
     20 TM          7.28  20.73   11.8
     20 shuffled    7.17  22.85   26.6
     20 turn-only   6.11  21.06   28.5
     20 majority    9.65  25.76   11.2
     25 naive       8.13  31.70   33.6
     25 TM         10.37  29.16    8.5
     25 shuffled   10.45  32.24   21.3
     25 turn-only   8.52  28.12    8.7
     25 majority   10.76  31.72    5.6
     30 naive       9.83  39.66   28.1
     30 TM         13.29  36.45    8.4
     30 shuffled   10.39  40.58   13.3
     30 turn-only  10.97  37.15    7.2
     30 majority   10.38  39.80   23.9

  round 10 (L= 1380)   nEval/h = [400, 395, 390, 385]
    h   arm       med    p90   hit%
     15 naive       4.01  13.67   39.5
     15 TM          4.47  13.06   27.0
     15 shuffled    4.21  14.32   38.8
     15 turn-only   4.14  13.49   39.5
     15 majority    4.02  13.67   39.5
     20 naive       7.63  20.99   22.8
     20 TM          7.74  21.04   16.7
     20 shuffled    8.15  22.26   17.0
     20 turn-only   7.65  20.85   21.3
     20 majority    7.49  20.90   24.6
     25 naive      10.69  28.86   15.4
     25 TM          9.74  28.43    8.2
     25 shuffled   11.37  29.50    9.5
     25 turn-only  10.11  28.80   18.2
     25 majority   11.51  28.58   11.8
     30 naive      13.79  35.78   11.2
     30 TM         13.76  34.64    7.0
     30 shuffled   13.11  38.65   12.2
     30 turn-only  12.85  36.31   13.2
     30 majority   14.42  36.08    9.1

  round 11 (L= 1127)   nEval/h = [324, 319, 314, 309]
    h   arm       med    p90   hit%
     15 naive       6.80  14.92   20.7
     15 TM          6.86  15.11   19.1
     15 shuffled    8.62  15.29   16.0
     15 turn-only   6.63  14.41   17.0
     15 majority   12.47  22.84    9.0
     20 naive       9.68  22.92   15.4
     20 TM          9.87  22.80   11.9
     20 shuffled    9.51  22.15   12.9
     20 turn-only   9.53  22.15   12.9
     20 majority   17.59  33.36    6.0
     25 naive      10.88  30.80   13.7
     25 TM         11.11  28.15   10.2
     25 shuffled   11.79  31.31   11.8
     25 turn-only  12.48  29.97   10.2
     25 majority   20.29  41.59    4.8
     30 naive      13.77  38.10   10.0
     30 TM         12.41  33.61    9.7
     30 shuffled   14.72  37.96    5.8
     30 turn-only  15.97  36.95    7.4
     30 majority   25.82  58.38    5.2

  round 12 (L= 1258)   nEval/h = [363, 358, 353, 348]
    h   arm       med    p90   hit%
     15 naive       2.76  13.10   47.4
     15 TM          2.72  12.78   46.8
     15 shuffled    3.16  13.33   45.7
     15 turn-only   3.04  13.28   47.1
     15 majority    2.71  13.24   47.7
     20 naive       5.47  19.38   39.4
     20 TM          4.74  19.08   39.9
     20 shuffled    5.63  19.60   37.2
     20 turn-only   5.11  19.60   39.1
     20 majority    5.33  19.74   34.9
     25 naive       8.00  26.76   32.0
     25 TM          7.08  26.69   31.2
     25 shuffled    8.05  26.79   16.4
     25 turn-only   7.93  27.51   31.2
     25 majority    8.51  26.82   19.5
     30 naive      10.11  33.73   24.1
     30 TM         10.04  32.63   14.4
     30 shuffled   12.07  34.27   12.6
     30 turn-only   9.57  34.07   25.9
     30 majority   11.13  33.93    7.2

  round 13 (L= 1330)   nEval/h = [385, 380, 375, 370]
    h   arm       med    p90   hit%
     15 naive       5.81  16.12   32.7
     15 TM          8.07  16.09   16.1
     15 shuffled    5.80  16.10   25.5
     15 turn-only   5.80  15.95   31.4
     15 majority    9.17  22.02   11.9
     20 naive       9.24  23.32   21.8
     20 TM         12.84  24.67   13.7
     20 shuffled    9.89  22.88   20.3
     20 turn-only   9.49  23.49   23.4
     20 majority   17.60  36.69    7.9
     25 naive      12.70  31.07   13.1
     25 TM         16.49  33.55    9.9
     25 shuffled   12.49  30.94   14.9
     25 turn-only  12.65  31.20   17.3
     25 majority   13.01  30.69   18.1
     30 naive      14.84  36.94   10.0
     30 TM         20.28  42.39    8.6
     30 shuffled   13.71  37.00    8.9
     30 turn-only  14.75  36.89   10.0
     30 majority   15.11  37.90   11.9

  round 14 (L= 1474)   nEval/h = [428, 423, 418, 413]
    h   arm       med    p90   hit%
     15 naive       3.33  13.96   42.5
     15 TM          5.17  11.86   23.4
     15 shuffled    3.32  13.77   40.2
     15 turn-only   3.50  13.77   41.6
     15 majority    5.72  14.64   13.3
     20 naive       6.05  21.34   29.1
     20 TM          8.08  19.45   15.6
     20 shuffled    7.38  20.70   19.1
     20 turn-only   6.62  21.14   25.5
     20 majority   10.39  23.79    6.1
     25 naive       9.48  28.59   24.2
     25 TM         11.16  26.70   11.7
     25 shuffled    9.17  29.91   14.4
     25 turn-only  10.18  28.56   20.6
     25 majority   12.09  31.19    5.5
     30 naive      12.80  37.10   20.8
     30 TM         15.48  35.95   10.2
     30 shuffled   11.50  37.21   15.7
     30 turn-only  13.69  37.37    7.3
     30 majority   26.29  55.88    6.1

  round 15 (L= 1093)   nEval/h = [313, 308, 303, 298]
    h   arm       med    p90   hit%
     15 naive       4.30  18.06   40.9
     15 TM          7.14  14.79   14.1
     15 shuffled    4.28  17.64   37.7
     15 turn-only   4.29  17.75   39.9
     15 majority    7.76  19.84    9.3
     20 naive       7.49  26.79   34.1
     20 TM          9.24  21.96   11.4
     20 shuffled    9.62  26.67   12.0
     20 turn-only   7.99  26.29   32.1
     20 majority    9.55  28.07    8.4
     25 naive      10.87  35.16   23.1
     25 TM         13.81  29.13    7.9
     25 shuffled   14.24  37.56   11.2
     25 turn-only  12.12  33.27    6.9
     25 majority   14.50  40.31    6.9
     30 naive      15.47  43.12   18.5
     30 TM         20.37  36.64    5.0
     30 shuffled   15.49  48.21    5.0
     30 turn-only  15.21  40.76   10.1
     30 majority   21.51  52.65    4.7


## PER-FIXTURE pooled (tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl)
  h  arm            N  med|err|  p90|err|    hit%   miss%
 15 naive        5790      4.26     14.10    38.3    61.7
 15 TM           5790      4.85     13.39    28.9    71.1
 15 shuffled     5790      4.48     14.50    35.0    65.0
 15 turn-only    5790      4.28     13.92    36.9    63.1
 15 majority     5790      6.16     17.34    24.5    75.5
 20 naive        5715      6.97     21.49    27.4    72.6
 20 TM           5715      7.61     20.46    20.2    79.8
 20 shuffled     5715      7.52     21.35    22.4    77.6
 20 turn-only    5715      6.96     21.36    25.8    74.2
 20 majority     5715      9.76     26.79    16.9    83.1
 25 naive        5640      9.74     29.02    21.5    78.5
 25 TM           5640      9.89     27.86    13.9    86.1
 25 shuffled     5640     10.06     29.49    16.7    83.3
 25 turn-only    5640      9.62     28.70    16.3    83.7
 25 majority     5640     11.38     30.25    13.8    86.2
 30 naive        5565     12.40     36.16    16.7    83.3
 30 TM           5565     12.75     34.51    11.0    89.0
 30 shuffled     5565     12.75     36.96    12.7    87.3
 30 turn-only    5565     12.55     36.16    11.4    88.6
 30 majority     5565     16.16     40.41    10.6    89.4

## PER-FIXTURE learnability (tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl)
  h      N   TMquad%  shufquad%  TMside%  turnSide%  majQuad%   pred[Ls Lb Rs Rb] / true[Ls Lb Rs Rb]
 15   5790     35.0       22.2     58.2       53.4      25.4   [1237 1608 898 2047 ] / [1448 1427 1471 1444 ]
 20   5715     35.3       22.3     58.9       54.3      25.3   [1273 1542 849 2051 ] / [1392 1438 1445 1440 ]
 25   5640     34.6       24.0     59.0       56.9      25.6   [1227 1558 802 2053 ] / [1368 1414 1445 1413 ]
 30   5565     35.4       23.7     61.1       57.3      26.1   [1254 1469 834 2008 ] / [1340 1361 1452 1412 ]

## FIXTURE tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl: 10 rounds, 12629 ticks
  round  1 (L=  593)   nEval/h = [163, 158, 153, 148]
    h   arm       med    p90   hit%
     15 naive       2.08  16.95   61.3
     15 TM          2.08  16.95   61.3
     15 shuffled    2.08  16.95   61.3
     15 turn-only   2.08  16.95   61.3
     15 majority    2.08  16.95   61.3
     20 naive       4.14  25.55   39.9
     20 TM          4.14  25.55   39.9
     20 shuffled    4.14  25.55   39.9
     20 turn-only   4.14  25.55   39.9
     20 majority    4.14  25.55   39.9
     25 naive       6.92  34.33   22.9
     25 TM          6.92  34.33   22.9
     25 shuffled    6.92  34.33   22.9
     25 turn-only   6.92  34.33   22.9
     25 majority    6.92  34.33   22.9
     30 naive      10.18  41.79   18.2
     30 TM         10.18  41.79   18.2
     30 shuffled   10.18  41.79   18.2
     30 turn-only  10.18  41.79   18.2
     30 majority   10.18  41.79   18.2

  round  2 (L= 1081)   nEval/h = [310, 305, 300, 295]
    h   arm       med    p90   hit%
     15 naive       2.43   9.95   45.5
     15 TM          3.47   8.70   26.8
     15 shuffled    3.70  11.81   18.4
     15 turn-only   3.33  10.22   26.8
     15 majority    2.56  10.20   43.2
     20 naive       4.96  15.77   32.5
     20 TM          4.85  12.53   21.3
     20 shuffled    6.61  16.15   12.1
     20 turn-only   4.31  15.68   15.7
     20 majority    4.92  15.89   34.1
     25 naive       8.08  23.11   26.3
     25 TM          7.10  18.45   15.7
     25 shuffled    9.77  23.46   20.7
     25 turn-only   7.21  21.58   10.7
     25 majority    8.19  22.53   26.3
     30 naive      11.82  30.98   18.6
     30 TM          8.81  24.99    9.8
     30 shuffled   13.31  30.41   12.2
     30 turn-only  12.66  28.23    8.1
     30 majority   12.13  31.22    6.4

  round  3 (L= 1237)   nEval/h = [357, 352, 347, 342]
    h   arm       med    p90   hit%
     15 naive       4.45  17.62   41.5
     15 TM          7.33  14.79   17.1
     15 shuffled    4.72  18.04   31.9
     15 turn-only   4.09  17.24   37.0
     15 majority    4.41  17.56   41.7
     20 naive       7.78  25.57   32.1
     20 TM         11.92  22.17    9.7
     20 shuffled    6.65  25.49   25.3
     20 turn-only   8.31  22.38    7.7
     20 majority    7.47  25.68   18.5
     25 naive      11.50  31.52   19.9
     25 TM         16.11  30.15    6.9
     25 shuffled    9.57  32.60   12.4
     25 turn-only  12.47  29.49    5.5
     25 majority   11.55  31.95   17.9
     30 naive      14.83  38.77   14.3
     30 TM         20.87  34.41    5.8
     30 shuffled   12.62  40.85    4.4
     30 turn-only  16.19  34.54    4.4
     30 majority   14.87  38.69   16.7

  round  4 (L= 1296)   nEval/h = [374, 369, 364, 359]
    h   arm       med    p90   hit%
     15 naive       1.72  12.89   54.8
     15 TM          3.62  14.68   27.0
     15 shuffled    1.89  13.34   53.2
     15 turn-only   1.82  13.32   54.8
     15 majority    2.27  13.67   50.8
     20 naive       3.40  21.79   42.8
     20 TM          7.10  24.36   16.5
     20 shuffled    4.30  21.63   26.6
     20 turn-only   3.99  22.50   42.0
     20 majority    4.41  21.83   17.6
     25 naive       5.26  30.32   32.1
     25 TM          9.22  34.28   13.5
     25 shuffled    6.71  29.26   18.7
     25 turn-only   6.50  30.79   12.1
     25 majority    7.14  30.87    8.2
     30 naive       6.85  38.04   23.7
     30 TM         10.38  42.47   15.3
     30 shuffled    9.07  37.28   16.4
     30 turn-only   9.16  37.81    8.1
     30 majority   10.67  38.24    6.7

  round  5 (L= 1550)   nEval/h = [450, 445, 440, 435]
    h   arm       med    p90   hit%
     15 naive       4.76  14.38   37.1
     15 TM          4.14  13.43   37.3
     15 shuffled    4.55  14.54   30.4
     15 turn-only   4.43  14.47   36.9
     15 majority    4.46  14.47   36.2
     20 naive       7.25  22.56   22.5
     20 TM          7.31  19.53   21.8
     20 shuffled    7.41  22.04   24.0
     20 turn-only   7.04  22.00   24.7
     20 majority    7.46  21.91   24.0
     25 naive       9.70  30.01   11.4
     25 TM          9.72  26.88   12.3
     25 shuffled    9.31  30.03   14.3
     25 turn-only   8.91  29.45   16.1
     25 majority    9.02  29.65   14.8
     30 naive      12.35  36.18    8.0
     30 TM         13.08  34.35    8.3
     30 shuffled   12.92  36.57    9.4
     30 turn-only  12.94  36.01   10.8
     30 majority   12.28  36.03    8.7

  round  6 (L= 1284)   nEval/h = [371, 366, 361, 356]
    h   arm       med    p90   hit%
     15 naive       4.35  13.01   29.9
     15 TM          5.08  12.79   14.3
     15 shuffled    4.87  13.70   27.8
     15 turn-only   4.02  12.81   30.2
     15 majority    4.37  13.06   29.9
     20 naive       7.35  18.96   18.9
     20 TM          9.10  20.33   11.7
     20 shuffled    7.22  19.53   17.2
     20 turn-only   7.03  18.05   11.5
     20 majority    7.50  19.88   13.4
     25 naive      11.26  25.97   10.5
     25 TM         13.50  30.78    9.4
     25 shuffled   11.57  25.86    9.7
     25 turn-only  10.66  23.85    8.3
     25 majority   11.98  26.52    9.1
     30 naive      15.01  33.20    7.9
     30 TM         15.25  36.96    7.9
     30 shuffled   16.33  38.43    6.5
     30 turn-only  13.83  32.45    5.1
     30 majority   17.70  43.79    4.8

  round  7 (L= 1364)   nEval/h = [395, 390, 385, 380]
    h   arm       med    p90   hit%
     15 naive       2.46  13.59   49.1
     15 TM          5.33  12.88   36.2
     15 shuffled    3.46  13.59   44.3
     15 turn-only   2.48  13.71   49.4
     15 majority    2.99  14.19   40.8
     20 naive       5.01  21.20   34.4
     20 TM          8.50  20.85   20.5
     20 shuffled    4.92  21.17   37.9
     20 turn-only   5.02  21.15   34.4
     20 majority    6.37  22.17   13.6
     25 naive       6.96  29.57   24.2
     25 TM         12.04  29.71   14.0
     25 shuffled    7.80  29.64   23.1
     25 turn-only   7.14  29.79   23.6
     25 majority    9.40  31.52    7.3
     30 naive      10.37  35.68   23.4
     30 TM         16.49  38.72   13.7
     30 shuffled   10.19  35.92   26.3
     30 turn-only  10.23  35.14   28.7
     30 majority   29.22  55.48    2.6

  round  8 (L= 1546)   nEval/h = [449, 444, 439, 434]
    h   arm       med    p90   hit%
     15 naive       4.25  14.89   40.1
     15 TM          5.51  16.01   31.4
     15 shuffled    5.67  16.26   19.8
     15 turn-only   4.93  15.16   27.8
     15 majority    4.26  14.81   38.1
     20 naive       7.75  23.03   33.8
     20 TM          7.73  25.17   10.8
     20 shuffled    8.06  23.16   18.7
     20 turn-only   8.72  23.35   10.4
     20 majority    7.37  23.78    7.0
     25 naive      11.52  31.02   24.4
     25 TM         11.97  33.75    8.4
     25 shuffled   12.01  34.69   13.0
     25 turn-only  10.64  30.33    8.2
     25 majority   15.26  39.26    8.4
     30 naive      14.47  39.88   17.1
     30 TM         13.82  41.47    7.1
     30 shuffled   14.29  39.96    5.3
     30 turn-only  11.86  38.32    7.1
     30 majority   17.05  47.27    6.5

  round  9 (L= 1286)   nEval/h = [371, 366, 361, 356]
    h   arm       med    p90   hit%
     15 naive       5.97  14.60   24.0
     15 TM          5.56  13.46   27.0
     15 shuffled    5.52  14.46   22.6
     15 turn-only   5.76  14.45   24.3
     15 majority    5.79  15.17   25.3
     20 naive       9.31  21.51   15.8
     20 TM          8.73  20.98   17.5
     20 shuffled    8.82  21.90   12.0
     20 turn-only   8.50  20.58   12.3
     20 majority    9.55  24.25   11.2
     25 naive      12.35  27.72   12.2
     25 TM         11.16  27.17    8.3
     25 shuffled   12.12  28.53    9.7
     25 turn-only  11.30  26.23    9.4
     25 majority   12.64  30.49    7.5
     30 naive      14.72  31.71   11.0
     30 TM         14.05  30.50    7.3
     30 shuffled   14.29  33.79   10.4
     30 turn-only  14.09  30.47    8.4
     30 majority   15.49  38.51    7.6

  round 10 (L= 1392)   nEval/h = [403, 398, 393, 388]
    h   arm       med    p90   hit%
     15 naive       4.35  15.34   39.0
     15 TM          4.67  14.34   28.8
     15 shuffled    4.45  15.19   36.7
     15 turn-only   4.38  15.33   39.2
     15 majority    4.28  15.18   39.2
     20 naive       7.44  22.49   28.9
     20 TM          8.41  21.46   20.1
     20 shuffled    7.03  22.52   21.1
     20 turn-only   7.44  22.50   28.9
     20 majority    7.39  22.83   28.1
     25 naive      11.21  30.56   20.1
     25 TM         11.67  30.44   13.5
     25 shuffled   11.22  32.18    7.9
     25 turn-only  11.23  30.50   20.1
     25 majority   11.32  30.69   16.3
     30 naive      15.74  37.20   17.8
     30 TM         14.96  37.52    8.8
     30 shuffled   15.27  40.44    5.7
     30 turn-only  15.58  37.22   16.8
     30 majority   15.53  38.23   12.6


## PER-FIXTURE pooled (tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl)
  h  arm            N  med|err|  p90|err|    hit%   miss%
 15 naive        3643      3.83     14.38    41.0    59.0
 15 TM           3643      4.71     13.67    29.3    70.7
 15 shuffled     3643      4.41     14.65    33.1    66.9
 15 turn-only    3643      3.97     14.38    37.5    62.5
 15 majority     3643      3.80     14.46    39.3    60.7
 20 naive        3593      6.50     21.96    29.5    70.5
 20 TM           3593      7.63     21.39    17.7    82.3
 20 shuffled     3593      6.61     21.88    22.7    77.3
 20 turn-only    3593      6.58     21.57    21.8    78.2
 20 majority     3593      6.73     22.48    19.2    80.8
 25 naive        3543      9.68     29.41    20.1    79.9
 25 TM           3543     10.94     29.71    11.8    88.2
 25 shuffled     3543      9.97     30.03    14.6    85.4
 25 turn-only    3543      9.83     28.62    13.3    86.7
 25 majority     3543     10.75     30.84    13.0    87.0
 30 naive        3493     12.97     36.08    15.7    84.3
 30 TM           3493     13.78     36.34     9.7    90.3
 30 shuffled     3493     13.10     37.31    11.0    89.0
 30 turn-only    3493     13.21     35.13    11.3    88.7
 30 majority     3493     15.84     40.40     8.5    91.5

## PER-FIXTURE learnability (tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl)
  h      N   TMquad%  shufquad%  TMside%  turnSide%  majQuad%   pred[Ls Lb Rs Rb] / true[Ls Lb Rs Rb]
 15   3643     35.5       24.1     61.7       52.6      26.3   [1057 1007 549 1030 ] / [959 887 906 891 ]
 20   3593     34.0       25.6     61.1       53.9      25.4   [1008 1037 537 1011 ] / [913 893 898 889 ]
 25   3543     33.7       23.4     60.9       52.8      25.6   [981 1000 564 998 ] / [860 908 870 905 ]
 30   3493     32.5       26.5     60.8       53.3      26.1   [938 1032 541 982 ] / [810 912 869 902 ]

==========================================================================================

## POOLED PRIMARY (tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot*): four-arm + floor table
  h  arm            N  med|err|  p90|err|    hit%   miss%
 15 naive        9433      4.08     14.24    39.3    60.7
 15 TM           9433      4.81     13.53    29.0    71.0
 15 shuffled     9433      4.45     14.58    34.3    65.7
 15 turn-only    9433      4.13     14.10    37.1    62.9
 15 majority     9433      5.35     16.20    30.2    69.8
 20 naive        9308      6.81     21.60    28.2    71.8
 20 TM           9308      7.61     20.85    19.2    80.8
 20 shuffled     9308      7.14     21.64    22.5    77.5
 20 turn-only    9308      6.80     21.44    24.3    75.7
 20 majority     9308      8.74     24.97    17.8    82.2
 25 naive        9183      9.71     29.13    20.9    79.1
 25 TM           9183     10.33     28.63    13.1    86.9
 25 shuffled     9183     10.03     29.67    15.9    84.1
 25 turn-only    9183      9.68     28.62    15.1    84.9
 25 majority     9183     11.16     30.48    13.5    86.5
 30 naive        9058     12.62     36.12    16.4    83.6
 30 TM           9058     13.09     35.17    10.5    89.5
 30 shuffled     9058     12.94     37.03    12.0    88.0
 30 turn-only    9058     12.76     35.80    11.4    88.6
 30 majority     9058     16.02     40.41     9.8    90.2

## DELTAS (percentage points of estimated hit fraction)
  h   d(med) TM-naive   d(p90) TM-naive   d(hit) TM-naive   d(hit) TM-turn   d(hit) shuf-naive
 15            +0.73            -0.71            -10.3            -8.1               -5.0
 20            +0.80            -0.75             -9.0            -5.1               -5.7
 25            +0.61            -0.50             -7.8            -2.0               -5.0
 30            +0.47            -0.95             -5.9            -0.9               -4.3

## POOLED learnability diagnostics (is the learner learning?)
  h      N   TMquad%  shufquad%  TMside%  turnSide%  majQuad%   pred[Ls Lb Rs Rb] / true[Ls Lb Rs Rb]
 15   9433     35.2       22.9     59.6       53.1      25.5   [2294 2615 1447 3077 ] / [2407 2314 2377 2335 ]
 20   9308     34.8       23.6     59.8       54.1      25.2   [2281 2579 1386 3062 ] / [2305 2331 2343 2329 ]
 25   9183     34.3       23.8     59.7       55.3      25.3   [2208 2558 1366 3051 ] / [2228 2322 2315 2318 ]
 30   9058     34.3       24.8     61.0       55.7      25.6   [2192 2501 1375 2990 ] / [2150 2273 2321 2314 ]

==========================================================================================
## SHUFFLED-CONTROL INTEGRITY (per round, should stay ~flat)
fixture                             round   h  TM-naive  shuf-naive  turn-naive
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         1  15      -0.3        -4.4        -1.4
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         1  20      +3.1        +3.9        +7.9
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         1  25      -4.0        +2.0        +6.0
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         1  30      -6.6        -1.4        +0.6
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         2  15     -19.0        -0.2        -0.5
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         2  20     -10.4       -11.6        +1.5
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         2  25      -7.0        -1.2       -15.0
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         2  30      -8.1        -1.8       -16.5
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         3  15      +0.4        +1.3        +0.0
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         3  20      -3.0        -0.4        +0.0
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         3  25      -7.9        -0.4        -3.9
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         3  30      +2.2        -4.0        -7.6
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         4  15      +0.5        -4.1        -5.0
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         4  20      -1.2        -0.2        -1.7
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         4  25      +1.2        +1.2        -2.2
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         4  30      +1.7        +1.2        +3.2
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         5  15      +0.7        +0.2        -0.2
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         5  20      -3.1        -5.5        -1.6
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         5  25     -10.1        -6.4        -2.2
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         5  30      -5.8        -2.6        -5.2
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         6  15      -3.2        -0.3        +0.6
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         6  20      +1.0        -2.6        -0.7
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         6  25      +3.3        -0.7        +0.0
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         6  30      +7.1        +0.0        +1.4
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         7  15      -6.4        -8.5        -5.4
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         7  20     -10.3        -3.8        -4.5
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         7  25      -7.7        -4.1        -8.9
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         7  30      -3.7        +0.0        -3.2
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         8  15      +1.4        +3.2        +2.0
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         8  20      +1.5        +2.6        -4.9
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         8  25      -4.4        -0.9        -3.5
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         8  30      -4.2        -1.5        -3.6
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         9  15     -29.4       -11.7        -1.9
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         9  20     -25.2       -10.4        -8.5
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         9  25     -25.0       -12.3       -24.9
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl         9  30     -19.7       -14.9       -20.9
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl        10  15     -12.5        -0.8        +0.0
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl        10  20      -6.1        -5.8        -1.5
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl        10  25      -7.2        -5.9        +2.8
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl        10  30      -4.2        +1.0        +2.1
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl        11  15      -1.5        -4.6        -3.7
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl        11  20      -3.4        -2.5        -2.5
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl        11  25      -3.5        -1.9        -3.5
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl        11  30      -0.3        -4.2        -2.6
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl        12  15      -0.6        -1.7        -0.3
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl        12  20      +0.6        -2.2        -0.3
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl        12  25      -0.8       -15.6        -0.8
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl        12  30      -9.8       -11.5        +1.7
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl        13  15     -16.6        -7.3        -1.3
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl        13  20      -8.2        -1.6        +1.6
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl        13  25      -3.2        +1.9        +4.3
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl        13  30      -1.4        -1.1        +0.0
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl        14  15     -19.2        -2.3        -0.9
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl        14  20     -13.5        -9.9        -3.5
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl        14  25     -12.4        -9.8        -3.6
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl        14  30     -10.7        -5.1       -13.6
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl        15  15     -26.8        -3.2        -1.0
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl        15  20     -22.7       -22.1        -1.9
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl        15  25     -15.2       -11.9       -16.2
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot.jsonl        15  30     -13.4       -13.4        -8.4
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     1  15      +0.0        +0.0        +0.0
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     1  20      +0.0        +0.0        +0.0
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     1  25      +0.0        +0.0        +0.0
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     1  30      +0.0        +0.0        +0.0
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     2  15     -18.7       -27.1       -18.7
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     2  20     -11.1       -20.3       -16.7
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     2  25     -10.7        -5.7       -15.7
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     2  30      -8.8        -6.4       -10.5
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     3  15     -24.4        -9.5        -4.5
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     3  20     -22.4        -6.8       -24.4
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     3  25     -13.0        -7.5       -14.4
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     3  30      -8.5        -9.9        -9.9
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     4  15     -27.8        -1.6        +0.0
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     4  20     -26.3       -16.3        -0.8
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     4  25     -18.7       -13.5       -20.1
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     4  30      -8.4        -7.2       -15.6
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     5  15      +0.2        -6.7        -0.2
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     5  20      -0.7        +1.6        +2.2
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     5  25      +0.9        +3.0        +4.8
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     5  30      +0.2        +1.4        +2.8
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     6  15     -15.6        -2.2        +0.3
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     6  20      -7.1        -1.6        -7.4
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     6  25      -1.1        -0.8        -2.2
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     6  30      +0.0        -1.4        -2.8
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     7  15     -12.9        -4.8        +0.3
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     7  20     -13.8        +3.6        +0.0
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     7  25     -10.1        -1.0        -0.5
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     7  30      -9.7        +2.9        +5.3
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     8  15      -8.7       -20.3       -12.2
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     8  20     -23.0       -15.1       -23.4
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     8  25     -15.9       -11.4       -16.2
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     8  30      -9.9       -11.8        -9.9
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     9  15      +3.0        -1.3        +0.3
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     9  20      +1.6        -3.8        -3.6
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     9  25      -3.9        -2.5        -2.8
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl     9  30      -3.7        -0.6        -2.5
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl    10  15     -10.2        -2.2        +0.2
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl    10  20      -8.8        -7.8        +0.0
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl    10  25      -6.6       -12.2        +0.0
tr_drussgt_vs_modularbot_shield.jsonl    10  30      -9.0       -12.1        -1.0
