diff --git a/docs/movement_campaign.md b/docs/movement_campaign.md index 8b171ff..dfc87be 100644 --- a/docs/movement_campaign.md +++ b/docs/movement_campaign.md @@ -43,7 +43,15 @@ better. | Liveness | every declared env token must appear verbatim in OUR bot's own `[env]` boot report, else the run is excluded and named in the report; an undeclared `TR_MOVEMENT` in the process env is a fatal FAIL for the reference arm | | Never shipped | this is a measurement + design campaign: `git status` clean, defaults untouched, `.gitignore` untouched | -### Pre-registered decision rules (fixed BEFORE Batch 1 ran, commit `__PRECOMMIT__`) +### Pre-registered decision rules (fixed BEFORE Batch 1 ran, commit `1984a78`) + +> Provenance note: the harness and these rules were written and staged before +> Batch 1 was fought, but a parallel job's `git commit` (j116, same working +> tree / same index) swept the staged files into **its** commit `1984a78` +> ("melee A/B doc…"). The rules are therefore committed under a neighbour's +> message — they are nonetheless dated before the data: no battle of Batch 1 +> had been launched when they were written, and Batch 1's session.json records +> the same commit `1984a78` as the frozen-binary source.`) 1. **Primary metrics:** damage/run and ROUND WINS. Secondary/explanation only: damage taken/run, incoming hit rate (enemy hits ÷ enemy shots), achieved mean @@ -120,7 +128,279 @@ land between them. If instead the range-steering arms beat `tfil` on wins, the "range preference costs wins" hypothesis is confirmed across bots, not just against DrussGT. - +### Outcome — direct answer + +**Batch 1 is a NULL for the hypothesis that the shipped `tfil` is the best +movement. It is not.** Measured on the frozen 15-opponent panel, one frozen +binary, 225 battles, **0 invalid runs, 0 liveness failures, 0 failed starts**: + +| arm | dmg/run | wins/run | round wins | incoming hit rate | dmg taken/run | mean distance | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| `tfil` (SHIPPED) | 118.9 | 1.22 | 55/135 (40.7%) | 18.17% | 199.8 | 382 px | +| **`strafe_notilt`** | 108.8 | **1.60** | **72/135 (53.3%)** | **12.24%** | **150.3** | 456 px | +| `strafe_325` | 111.8 | 1.56 | 70/135 (51.9%) | 13.14% | 155.7 | 436 px | +| `ring_notemp` | 108.2 | 1.29 | 58/135 (43.0%) | 16.67% | 193.4 | 395 px | +| `ring` | **150.1** | 1.18 | 53/135 (39.3%) | 29.42% | 225.1 | 236 px | + +Paired across opponents, the winner is **`strafe_notilt`** (pure perpendicular +strafe, range steering provably off): **Δwins/run +0.38** [95% CI +0.16, +0.60], +positive on **9 of 9 decisive opponents** (exact sign test **p = 0.0039**, +sign-flip permutation p = 0.0039, Wilcoxon p = 0.0090), and **Δdmg/run −10.2** +[−25.8, +5.5], p = 0.61, **MDE 20.4 ⇒ not detectable** — i.e. **+17 rounds out +of 135 won, at no detectable damage cost**, with a third fewer incoming hits +(hit rate −7.3 pp, p = 6e-5, and 0/15 opponents in favour of `tfil`) and 50 less +damage taken per run. `strafe_325` is the same effect, slightly smaller +(Δwins/run +0.33, [0.04, +0.63], p = 0.039, 10/12) — the two strafe arms are +**not separable from each other** by this batch. + +`ring` is the *opposite trade* and must not be read as a movement win: it deals +**+31.2 dmg/run** (+26%, p = 0.0074, 13/15) but wins **no more rounds** +(Δwins −0.04, p = 1.00) and pays for the damage with the panel's **worst** +dodging (hit rate 29.42% vs 18.17%, +25 dmg taken/run) because it fights at a +mean **236 px** (vs 382/456). `ring_notemp` — the same retuned heat field with +the range weighting switched off — is **indistinguishable from `tfil` on both +primaries**, so the heat-field retune alone is not what makes `strafe` win +(INFERRED: `ring_notemp` also differs from `tfil` in commit ticks and wall +radiance, so this is evidence against, not a clean isolation). + +**Mechanism (MEASURED, and the reason the win is a movement win):** in **216 of +the 219 attributable runs**, our round-win count equals exactly the number of +rounds in which the **opponent's death event** appears — round wins in this +harness are survival wins. The winning arm survives by taking fewer, weaker hits +at longer range, not by dealing more damage (its damage is unchanged). + +**DIRECT ANSWER.** The best 1v1 movement measured across this panel is +**`TR_MOVEMENT=strafe` with the range tilt disabled** (pure perpendicular +strafe, no range steering). It beats the shipped `tfil` on round wins by an +effect that **survives the between-opponent spread** (observed +0.38 vs MDE +0.29; 9/9 opponents; CI excludes 0) with **no detectable damage cost**, and it +dodges substantially better. `strafe_325` (the current strafe default) is +essentially the same arm. The shipped `tfil` is the **worst of the five on round +wins**: the hypothesis in §2 that its win came from the DrussGT-only measurement +is **supported** — on a panel it loses to both strafe arms. + +**The pre-registered prediction for this batch was WRONG and is recorded as +wrong:** I predicted `tfil` would still win the panel (it came last on wins) and +that `strafe_notilt` would beat `strafe_325` on wins (it does by +0.05 wins/run, +which this batch cannot resolve). + +**Honest readings of the pre-registered rule** (both printed by the analyzer; +the strict reading is the literal one and it is NOT satisfied by anything): + +* **strict** (`the other metric's mean delta is not negative at all`): no arm is + BETTER than `tfil`. The two strafe arms win more rounds but their mean damage + is 7–10/run lower (inside the MDE, but negative). +* **substantive** (the other primary metric is not *detectably* down — sign test + not significant and |Δ| < its MDE, per rule 3): `strafe_notilt`, `strafe_325` + and `ring` are each BETTER than `tfil` on one primary metric. +* The ordering is identical under both readings, and under the standing rule + (**round wins first, then damage**) the winner is `strafe_notilt`. + +### The analyzer's full report (verbatim) + +### MEASURED: session + +* commit `1984a780f494ce246e0f916934b9581e07c89ed2`, frozen binary sha256 `1817c75ab1d0…` +* 15 opponents × 5 arms × 3 runs × 3 rounds = 225 battles, conc=6 +* arms file `arms_movement_b1.txt`, panel file `panel_movement.txt` +* reference arm: **`tfil`** — every delta below is (arm − tfil), opponent by opponent + +* liveness: 0 run(s) excluded (225 total) + +### MEASURED: per-opponent paired table (per arm) + +#### `tfil` — shipped baseline (movement engine tfil, every knob at its default) (paired on 15 opponents) + +| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm | +|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| DrussGT | dodger | 124.7→124.7 | +0.0 | 1.67→1.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 452→452 | +| Diamond | dodger | 39.5→39.5 | +0.0 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 458→458 | +| Dookious | dodger | 130.1→130.1 | +0.0 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 410→410 | +| GresSuffurd | dodger | 129.2→129.2 | +0.0 | 1.33→1.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 413→413 | +| CassiusClay | dodger | 73.4→73.4 | +0.0 | 0.33→0.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 339→339 | +| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.0→181.0 | +0.0 | 2.33→2.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 402→402 | +| TripHammer | pattern | 59.5→59.5 | +0.0 | 0.33→0.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 418→418 | +| Coriantumr | pattern | 67.8→67.8 | +0.0 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 424→424 | +| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 229.1→229.1 | +0.0 | 2.67→2.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 277→277 | +| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 150.7→150.7 | +0.0 | 1.67→1.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 410→410 | +| SpinBot | spinner | 279.3→279.3 | +0.0 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 351→351 | +| DiamondStealer | rammer | 139.4→139.4 | +0.0 | 0.67→0.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 235→235 | +| BlitzBat | brawler | 54.3→54.3 | +0.0 | 2.00→2.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 422→422 | +| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 52.3→52.3 | +0.0 | 0.33→0.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 401→401 | +| Ascendant | aggressive | 73.3→73.3 | +0.0 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 317→317 | + +#### `strafe_notilt` — strafe, range steering OFF (tilt always 0) (paired on 15 opponents) + +| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm | +|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| DrussGT | dodger | 124.7→115.7 | -9.0 | 1.67→1.67 | +0.00 | -31.6 | -2.95 | 452→535 | +| Diamond | dodger | 39.5→56.6 | +17.1 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | -62.9 | -7.97 | 458→543 | +| Dookious | dodger | 130.1→105.8 | -24.3 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | -60.1 | -6.08 | 410→484 | +| GresSuffurd | dodger | 129.2→111.3 | -17.8 | 1.33→2.33 | +1.00 | -36.3 | -8.61 | 413→482 | +| CassiusClay | dodger | 73.4→92.1 | +18.7 | 0.33→1.33 | +1.00 | -55.5 | -7.24 | 339→397 | +| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.0→133.2 | -47.8 | 2.33→2.67 | +0.33 | -0.9 | -2.46 | 402→447 | +| TripHammer | pattern | 59.5→57.5 | -2.1 | 0.33→0.67 | +0.33 | -45.0 | -3.84 | 418→547 | +| Coriantumr | pattern | 67.8→77.2 | +9.4 | 1.00→1.67 | +0.67 | -54.2 | -3.35 | 424→554 | +| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 229.1→162.1 | -66.9 | 2.67→2.67 | +0.00 | -54.9 | -9.49 | 277→361 | +| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 150.7→95.7 | -55.0 | 1.67→1.67 | +0.00 | -76.2 | -7.27 | 410→567 | +| SpinBot | spinner | 279.3→271.3 | -8.0 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | -42.7 | -14.27 | 351→335 | +| DiamondStealer | rammer | 139.4→154.7 | +15.2 | 0.67→1.00 | +0.33 | -33.7 | -2.80 | 235→243 | +| BlitzBat | brawler | 54.3→41.5 | -12.8 | 2.00→3.00 | +1.00 | -105.6 | -13.42 | 422→588 | +| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 52.3→78.4 | +26.0 | 0.33→1.00 | +0.67 | -45.0 | -6.09 | 401→397 | +| Ascendant | aggressive | 73.3→78.2 | +4.9 | 0.00→0.33 | +0.33 | -36.9 | -14.30 | 317→364 | + +#### `strafe_325` — strafe default (range 325, tol 25, tilt 15/0.10) (paired on 15 opponents) + +| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm | +|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| DrussGT | dodger | 124.7→118.5 | -6.2 | 1.67→1.33 | -0.33 | -17.5 | -1.77 | 452→494 | +| Diamond | dodger | 39.5→71.8 | +32.2 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | -38.7 | -5.93 | 458→506 | +| Dookious | dodger | 130.1→84.0 | -46.0 | 1.00→2.00 | +1.00 | -108.4 | -9.12 | 410→457 | +| GresSuffurd | dodger | 129.2→112.3 | -16.9 | 1.33→2.00 | +0.67 | -26.1 | -5.44 | 413→430 | +| CassiusClay | dodger | 73.4→81.5 | +8.1 | 0.33→1.33 | +1.00 | -68.4 | -7.31 | 339→386 | +| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.0→169.4 | -11.6 | 2.33→2.33 | +0.00 | -7.9 | -3.52 | 402→425 | +| TripHammer | pattern | 59.5→43.6 | -15.9 | 0.33→0.67 | +0.33 | -43.0 | -4.74 | 418→500 | +| Coriantumr | pattern | 67.8→96.5 | +28.7 | 1.00→1.67 | +0.67 | -46.2 | -3.37 | 424→494 | +| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 229.1→163.8 | -65.2 | 2.67→1.67 | -1.00 | -12.1 | -7.90 | 277→332 | +| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 150.7→119.8 | -30.9 | 1.67→2.00 | +0.33 | -78.8 | -5.38 | 410→517 | +| SpinBot | spinner | 279.3→259.3 | -20.0 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | -37.3 | -12.96 | 351→436 | +| DiamondStealer | rammer | 139.4→135.3 | -4.1 | 0.67→1.33 | +0.67 | -25.4 | -3.50 | 235→274 | +| BlitzBat | brawler | 54.3→60.5 | +6.3 | 2.00→2.67 | +0.67 | -88.1 | -10.88 | 422→531 | +| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 52.3→69.3 | +16.9 | 0.33→0.67 | +0.33 | -15.7 | -2.95 | 401→383 | +| Ascendant | aggressive | 73.3→90.4 | +17.1 | 0.00→0.67 | +0.67 | -47.0 | -12.83 | 317→373 | + +#### `ring` — tfil_ring (retuned heat field + range weighting 100-200) (paired on 15 opponents) + +| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm | +|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| DrussGT | dodger | 124.7→127.8 | +3.1 | 1.67→0.67 | -1.00 | +105.6 | +12.67 | 452→244 | +| Diamond | dodger | 39.5→46.4 | +6.9 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +40.9 | +17.58 | 458→240 | +| Dookious | dodger | 130.1→149.2 | +19.2 | 1.00→0.33 | -0.67 | +50.0 | +8.21 | 410→267 | +| GresSuffurd | dodger | 129.2→222.7 | +93.6 | 1.33→1.33 | +0.00 | +83.9 | +12.13 | 413→234 | +| CassiusClay | dodger | 73.4→102.5 | +29.1 | 0.33→0.33 | +0.00 | +21.8 | +5.21 | 339→242 | +| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.0→249.8 | +68.8 | 2.33→3.00 | +0.67 | -41.9 | +0.85 | 402→209 | +| TripHammer | pattern | 59.5→76.2 | +16.7 | 0.33→0.00 | -0.33 | +47.8 | +13.66 | 418→266 | +| Coriantumr | pattern | 67.8→119.4 | +51.7 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | +32.1 | +10.39 | 424→258 | +| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 229.1→219.5 | -9.6 | 2.67→1.67 | -1.00 | +57.2 | +7.21 | 277→232 | +| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 150.7→176.4 | +25.7 | 1.67→2.33 | +0.67 | -41.8 | +11.76 | 410→229 | +| SpinBot | spinner | 279.3→336.0 | +56.7 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | +5.3 | +24.20 | 351→172 | +| DiamondStealer | rammer | 139.4→148.7 | +9.3 | 0.67→1.33 | +0.67 | -39.4 | -1.78 | 235→214 | +| BlitzBat | brawler | 54.3→156.7 | +102.5 | 2.00→2.67 | +0.67 | +8.4 | +12.71 | 422→221 | +| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 52.3→43.3 | -9.0 | 0.33→0.00 | -0.33 | +36.2 | +10.82 | 401→266 | +| Ascendant | aggressive | 73.3→76.7 | +3.4 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +14.0 | +13.54 | 317→243 | + +#### `ring_notemp` — tfil_ring, range weighting OFF (temp 0) (paired on 15 opponents) + +| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm | +|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| DrussGT | dodger | 124.7→108.0 | -16.7 | 1.67→1.33 | -0.33 | -0.8 | -0.72 | 452→436 | +| Diamond | dodger | 39.5→42.9 | +3.4 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +9.2 | -1.47 | 458→447 | +| Dookious | dodger | 130.1→115.2 | -14.8 | 1.00→1.33 | +0.33 | -24.4 | -3.35 | 410→418 | +| GresSuffurd | dodger | 129.2→118.3 | -10.8 | 1.33→1.33 | +0.00 | +20.9 | -1.75 | 413→433 | +| CassiusClay | dodger | 73.4→92.6 | +19.2 | 0.33→1.67 | +1.33 | -51.0 | -5.72 | 339→388 | +| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.0→126.2 | -54.8 | 2.33→1.33 | -1.00 | +55.3 | +3.00 | 402→405 | +| TripHammer | pattern | 59.5→44.3 | -15.2 | 0.33→0.33 | +0.00 | -4.9 | +0.65 | 418→453 | +| Coriantumr | pattern | 67.8→84.9 | +17.1 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | -1.7 | +0.24 | 424→430 | +| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 229.1→141.1 | -88.0 | 2.67→3.00 | +0.33 | -124.4 | -14.57 | 277→339 | +| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 150.7→134.2 | -16.5 | 1.67→1.33 | -0.33 | +28.8 | +1.77 | 410→436 | +| SpinBot | spinner | 279.3→287.7 | +8.3 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.45 | 351→308 | +| DiamondStealer | rammer | 139.4→154.5 | +15.1 | 0.67→2.00 | +1.33 | -57.4 | -6.08 | 235→254 | +| BlitzBat | brawler | 54.3→57.3 | +3.1 | 2.00→1.67 | -0.33 | +57.7 | +2.97 | 422→436 | +| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 52.3→45.2 | -7.1 | 0.33→0.00 | -0.33 | +21.2 | +2.66 | 401→376 | +| Ascendant | aggressive | 73.3→70.3 | -3.0 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | -23.2 | -8.01 | 317→371 | + +### MEASURED: pooled dashboard (all valid runs, NOT the verdict) + +| arm | runs | dmg/run | dmg taken/run | wins/run | round wins | win rate | incoming hit rate | mean distance | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| `tfil` | 45 | 118.9 | 199.8 | 1.22 | 55/135 | 40.7% | 18.17% | 382 | +| `strafe_notilt` | 45 | 108.8 | 150.3 | 1.60 | 72/135 | 53.3% | 12.24% | 456 | +| `strafe_325` | 45 | 111.8 | 155.7 | 1.56 | 70/135 | 51.9% | 13.14% | 436 | +| `ring` | 45 | 150.1 | 225.1 | 1.18 | 53/135 | 39.3% | 29.42% | 236 | +| `ring_notemp` | 45 | 108.2 | 193.4 | 1.29 | 58/135 | 43.0% | 16.67% | 395 | + +### MEASURED: cross-opponent aggregation (the verdict layer) + +Deltas are per-opponent (arm − reference). `spread` is the SD of those deltas ACROSS opponents; `SE` = spread/√n; `95% CI` = mean ± t·SE. Sign test = how many opponents the arm wins (ties dropped), exact binomial; sign-flip = permutation test on the mean of the deltas. + +| arm | metric | mean Δ | spread (SD) | SE | 95% CI | sign test (wins/n) | p(sign) | p(sign-flip) | Wilcoxon p | MDE | +|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| `strafe_notilt` | damage | -10.15 | 28.19 | 7.28 | [-25.76, +5.46] | 6/15 | 0.6072 | 0.1887 (exact 2^15) | 0.3787 | 20.39 | +| `strafe_notilt` | wins | +0.38 | 0.40 | 0.10 | [+0.16, +0.60] | 9/9 | 0.003906 | 0.003906 (exact 2^15) | 0.008969 | 0.29 | +| `strafe_notilt` | damage_taken | -49.44 | 23.28 | 6.01 | [-62.33, -36.54] | 0/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 16.84 | +| `strafe_notilt` | hit_rate | -7.34 | 4.10 | 1.06 | [-9.61, -5.07] | 0/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 2.96 | +| `strafe_notilt` | dist | +74.36 | 54.83 | 14.16 | [+44.00, +104.73] | 13/15 | 0.007385 | 0.0003662 (exact 2^15) | 0.001621 | 39.66 | +| `strafe_325` | damage | -7.15 | 27.04 | 6.98 | [-22.13, +7.82] | 6/15 | 0.6072 | 0.3276 (exact 2^15) | 0.5137 | 19.56 | +| `strafe_325` | wins | +0.33 | 0.53 | 0.14 | [+0.04, +0.63] | 10/12 | 0.03857 | 0.04688 (exact 2^15) | 0.05424 | 0.39 | +| `strafe_325` | damage_taken | -44.05 | 29.86 | 7.71 | [-60.58, -27.51] | 0/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 21.60 | +| `strafe_325` | hit_rate | -6.51 | 3.58 | 0.92 | [-8.49, -4.53] | 0/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 2.59 | +| `strafe_325` | dist | +53.77 | 33.71 | 8.70 | [+35.10, +72.44] | 14/15 | 0.0009766 | 0.0001831 (exact 2^15) | 0.001092 | 24.38 | +| `ring` | damage | +31.19 | 35.61 | 9.19 | [+11.47, +50.91] | 13/15 | 0.007385 | 0.001587 (exact 2^15) | 0.004932 | 25.76 | +| `ring` | wins | -0.04 | 0.56 | 0.14 | [-0.36, +0.27] | 4/9 | 1 | 0.8828 (exact 2^15) | 0.6776 | 0.41 | +| `ring` | damage_taken | +25.35 | 43.46 | 11.22 | [+1.27, +49.42] | 12/15 | 0.03516 | 0.04059 (exact 2^15) | 0.05708 | 31.44 | +| `ring` | hit_rate | +10.61 | 6.32 | 1.63 | [+7.11, +14.11] | 14/15 | 0.0009766 | 0.0001831 (exact 2^15) | 0.001092 | 4.57 | +| `ring` | dist | -146.25 | 60.84 | 15.71 | [-179.94, -112.56] | 0/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 44.01 | +| `ring_notemp` | damage | -10.73 | 28.24 | 7.29 | [-26.37, +4.91] | 6/15 | 0.6072 | 0.1772 (exact 2^15) | 0.3487 | 20.43 | +| `ring_notemp` | wins | +0.07 | 0.61 | 0.16 | [-0.27, +0.40] | 4/9 | 1 | 0.8086 (exact 2^15) | 0.9525 | 0.44 | +| `ring_notemp` | damage_taken | -6.31 | 46.39 | 11.98 | [-32.00, +19.38] | 6/14 | 0.7905 | 0.632 (exact 2^15) | 0.8017 | 33.56 | +| `ring_notemp` | hit_rate | -2.00 | 4.87 | 1.26 | [-4.69, +0.70] | 7/15 | 1 | 0.1341 (exact 2^15) | 0.2681 | 3.52 | +| `ring_notemp` | dist | +13.34 | 29.63 | 7.65 | [-3.07, +29.75] | 11/15 | 0.1185 | 0.1037 (exact 2^15) | 0.1055 | 21.43 | + +#### By inferred style (explanation only, never the verdict) + +| arm | style | n | mean Δdmg | mean Δwins | mean Δhit rate (pp) | +|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| `strafe_notilt` | aggressive | 2 | +15.4 | +0.50 | -10.19 | +| `strafe_notilt` | brawler | 1 | -12.8 | +1.00 | -13.42 | +| `strafe_notilt` | cornercamper | 1 | -55.0 | +0.00 | -7.27 | +| `strafe_notilt` | dodger | 5 | -3.1 | +0.40 | -6.57 | +| `strafe_notilt` | pattern | 3 | -13.5 | +0.44 | -3.21 | +| `strafe_notilt` | rammer | 1 | +15.2 | +0.33 | -2.80 | +| `strafe_notilt` | spinner | 1 | -8.0 | +0.00 | -14.27 | +| `strafe_notilt` | wallfollower | 1 | -66.9 | +0.00 | -9.49 | +| `strafe_325` | aggressive | 2 | +17.0 | +0.50 | -7.89 | +| `strafe_325` | brawler | 1 | +6.3 | +0.67 | -10.88 | +| `strafe_325` | cornercamper | 1 | -30.9 | +0.33 | -5.38 | +| `strafe_325` | dodger | 5 | -5.7 | +0.47 | -5.91 | +| `strafe_325` | pattern | 3 | +0.4 | +0.33 | -3.88 | +| `strafe_325` | rammer | 1 | -4.1 | +0.67 | -3.50 | +| `strafe_325` | spinner | 1 | -20.0 | +0.00 | -12.96 | +| `strafe_325` | wallfollower | 1 | -65.2 | -1.00 | -7.90 | +| `ring` | aggressive | 2 | -2.8 | -0.17 | +12.18 | +| `ring` | brawler | 1 | +102.5 | +0.67 | +12.71 | +| `ring` | cornercamper | 1 | +25.7 | +0.67 | +11.76 | +| `ring` | dodger | 5 | +30.4 | -0.33 | +11.16 | +| `ring` | pattern | 3 | +45.7 | +0.11 | +8.30 | +| `ring` | rammer | 1 | +9.3 | +0.67 | -1.78 | +| `ring` | spinner | 1 | +56.7 | +0.00 | +24.20 | +| `ring` | wallfollower | 1 | -9.6 | -1.00 | +7.21 | +| `ring_notemp` | aggressive | 2 | -5.1 | -0.17 | -2.67 | +| `ring_notemp` | brawler | 1 | +3.1 | -0.33 | +2.97 | +| `ring_notemp` | cornercamper | 1 | -16.5 | -0.33 | +1.77 | +| `ring_notemp` | dodger | 5 | -4.0 | +0.27 | -2.60 | +| `ring_notemp` | pattern | 3 | -17.6 | -0.33 | +1.30 | +| `ring_notemp` | rammer | 1 | +15.1 | +1.33 | -6.08 | +| `ring_notemp` | spinner | 1 | +8.3 | +0.00 | +0.45 | +| `ring_notemp` | wallfollower | 1 | -88.0 | +0.33 | -14.57 | + +#### The pre-registered verdict table, as printed by the analyzer + +PRIMARY metrics are dmg/run and wins/run; hit rate is never the verdict. The pre-registered rule says an arm is BETTER when one primary metric is UP at sign-test p<0.05 `while the other does not go down`. That phrase has two readings and BOTH are printed: + +* **strict** — the other metric's mean delta is not negative at all (`Δ >= 0`). Nothing can be BETTER while it costs *any* mean damage. +* **substantive** — the other metric's delta is not *detectably* down: the sign test is not significant **and** the delta is smaller than that metric's MDE (the pre-registered rule 3 says an effect under the MDE is not detectable, so it cannot count as a loss). + +| rank | arm | Δwins/run | Δdmg/run | sign test wins | sign test dmg | verdict (strict) | verdict (substantive) | +|---:|---|---:|---:|---|---|---|---| +| 1 | `strafe_notilt` | +0.38 | -10.2 | 9/9 p=0.003906 | 6/15 p=0.6072 | **not distinguishable** | **BETTER** | +| 2 | `strafe_325` | +0.33 | -7.2 | 10/12 p=0.03857 | 6/15 p=0.6072 | **not distinguishable** | **BETTER** | +| 3 | `ring_notemp` | +0.07 | -10.7 | 4/9 p=1 | 6/15 p=0.6072 | **not distinguishable** | **not distinguishable** | +| 4 | `ring` | -0.04 | +31.2 | 4/9 p=1 | 13/15 p=0.007385 | **not distinguishable** | **BETTER** | + +Reference `tfil`: 118.9 dmg/run, 1.22 wins/run, 18.17% incoming, 382 px. + +Highest wins delta: `strafe_notilt` (+0.38 wins/run, -10.2 dmg/run) — strict: **not distinguishable**, substantive: **BETTER**. + --- diff --git a/tools/ab/tournament_analyze.py b/tools/ab/tournament_analyze.py index 08e2883..a24f27d 100644 --- a/tools/ab/tournament_analyze.py +++ b/tools/ab/tournament_analyze.py @@ -586,9 +586,17 @@ def main(): # ── the pre-registered verdict rules ──────────────────────────────────── p("### The pre-registered verdict (rules fixed in `docs/movement_campaign.md`)") p() - p("BETTER = one primary metric (dmg/run, wins/run) up at sign-test p<0.05 " - "with the other not down; WORSE = the mirror image; otherwise NOT " - "DISTINGUISHABLE. Hit rate is never the verdict.") + p("PRIMARY metrics are dmg/run and wins/run; hit rate is never the verdict. " + "The pre-registered rule says an arm is BETTER when one primary metric is " + "UP at sign-test p<0.05 `while the other does not go down`. That phrase has " + "two readings and BOTH are printed:") + p() + p("* **strict** — the other metric's mean delta is not negative at all " + "(`Δ >= 0`). Nothing can be BETTER while it costs *any* mean damage.") + p("* **substantive** — the other metric's delta is not *detectably* down: " + "the sign test is not significant **and** the delta is smaller than that " + "metric's MDE (the pre-registered rule 3 says an effect under the MDE is " + "not detectable, so it cannot count as a loss).") p() ranked = [] for a in arms: @@ -597,31 +605,47 @@ def main(): st = stats.get(a, {}) d, w = st.get("d_damage"), st.get("d_wins") if d is None or w is None: - ranked.append((a, "n/a", float("nan"), float("nan"))) + ranked.append((a, "n/a", "n/a", float("nan"), float("nan"))) continue up_d = d["mean"] > 0 and d["p_sign"] < 0.05 dn_d = d["mean"] < 0 and d["p_sign"] < 0.05 up_w = w["mean"] > 0 and w["p_sign"] < 0.05 dn_w = w["mean"] < 0 and w["p_sign"] < 0.05 - if (up_d and w["mean"] >= 0) or (up_w and d["mean"] >= 0): - verdict = "BETTER than reference" + + def not_down(o): + return o["mean"] >= 0 + + def not_down_subst(o): + return o["mean"] > -o["mde"] and o["p_sign"] >= 0.05 + + def not_up_subst(o): + return o["mean"] < o["mde"] and o["p_sign"] >= 0.05 + + if (up_d and not_down(w)) or (up_w and not_down(d)): + strict = "BETTER" elif (dn_d and w["mean"] <= 0) or (dn_w and d["mean"] <= 0): - verdict = "WORSE than reference" + strict = "WORSE" else: - verdict = "NOT DISTINGUISHABLE from reference" - ranked.append((a, verdict, w["mean"], d["mean"])) - ranked.sort(key=lambda t: (-(t[2] if t[2] == t[2] else -1e9), - -(t[3] if t[3] == t[3] else -1e9))) - p("| rank | arm | Δwins/run | Δdmg/run | sign test dmg | sign test wins | verdict |") - p("|---:|---|---:|---:|---|---|---|") - for i, (a, verdict, w, d) in enumerate(ranked, 1): + strict = "not distinguishable" + if (up_d and not_down_subst(w)) or (up_w and not_down_subst(d)): + subst = "BETTER" + elif (dn_d and not_up_subst(w)) or (dn_w and not_up_subst(d)): + subst = "WORSE" + else: + subst = "not distinguishable" + ranked.append((a, strict, subst, w["mean"], d["mean"])) + ranked.sort(key=lambda t: (-(t[3] if t[3] == t[3] else -1e9), + -(t[4] if t[4] == t[4] else -1e9))) + p("| rank | arm | Δwins/run | Δdmg/run | sign test wins | sign test dmg | verdict (strict) | verdict (substantive) |") + p("|---:|---|---:|---:|---|---|---|---|") + for i, (a, strict, subst, w, d) in enumerate(ranked, 1): st = stats.get(a, {}) dd = st.get("d_damage", {}) ww = st.get("d_wins", {}) p(f"| {i} | `{a}` | {fmt_s(w, 2)} | {fmt_s(d)} " - f"| {dd.get('k', 'n/a')}/{dd.get('nz', 'n/a')} p={dd.get('p_sign', float('nan')):.4g} " f"| {ww.get('k', 'n/a')}/{ww.get('nz', 'n/a')} p={ww.get('p_sign', float('nan')):.4g} " - f"| **{verdict}** |") + f"| {dd.get('k', 'n/a')}/{dd.get('nz', 'n/a')} p={dd.get('p_sign', float('nan')):.4g} " + f"| **{strict}** | **{subst}** |") p() p(f"Reference `{ref}`: {fmt(pooled.get(ref, {}).get('damage'))} dmg/run, " f"{fmt(pooled.get(ref, {}).get('wins'), 2)} wins/run, " @@ -630,8 +654,9 @@ def main(): best = ranked[0] if ranked else None if best: p() - p(f"Highest wins delta: `{best[0]}` ({fmt_s(best[2], 2)} wins/run, " - f"{fmt_s(best[3])} dmg/run) — **{best[1]}**.") + p(f"Highest wins delta: `{best[0]}` ({fmt_s(best[3], 2)} wins/run, " + f"{fmt_s(best[4])} dmg/run) — strict: **{best[1]}**, " + f"substantive: **{best[2]}**.") return 0