gun j121 Batch 1 outcome: onlyPattern CONFIRMED across the 15-opponent panel; pre-register Batch 2 wider-panel calibration

2026-09-26 02:58:41 +02:00
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+# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+# arms_gun_b2.txt — BATCH 2 of the GUN campaign: a WIDER-PANEL calibration of the
+# two arms that carried the only nominal positive signal in Batch 1.
+#
+# Batch 1 (docs/gun_campaign.md, 15-opponent frozen panel, 270 battles) found NO
+# arm beating the shipped `pattern` beyond the MDE, but two arms sat on the
+# positive side of damage with a flat win count:
+#     BitBrain  Δdmg +10.3 (11/15 opponents, sign test p=0.1185, sign-flip
+#               p=0.0325), Δwins +0.11 (MDE 0.35)
+#     TMHorizon Δdmg  +8.7 (11/15, p=0.1185, sign-flip p=0.0992), Δwins +0.13
+# Both damage effects are BELOW the Batch-1 MDE (~12-14 dmg/run), so rule 3 says
+# they are not detectable — they must not be called a win OR a null. Resolving
+# them needs more OPPONENTS, not more runs, so this batch re-runs exactly those
+# two arms plus the reference on tools/ab/panel_gun_b2.txt (33 opponents).
+#
+# Format:  name | ENV=value ENV=value | label
+# MOVEMENT IS PINNED (`TR_MOVEMENT=strafe`) in EVERY arm — same rationale as
+# Batch 1: a default flip may be landing from j120, and the pin makes every
+# delta a pure gun delta and satisfies the analyzer liveness rule.
+# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+# 1. REFERENCE — shipped onlyPattern rack, movement pinned.
+pattern | TR_MOVEMENT=strafe | shipped onlyPattern rack (REFERENCE)
+
+# 2. BitBrain learned-gain corrector (the arm with the largest nominal damage
+#    edge in Batch 1: +10.3 dmg/run, 11/15).
+bitbrain | TR_MOVEMENT=strafe TR_RACK_PATTERN=off TR_RACK_BITBRAIN=both TR_BITBRAIN_GAINS=1.0,1.25,1.5,2.0 TR_BITBRAIN_MEM=decay | BitBrain-only, learned gain (gains 1.0..2.0, decay)
+
+# 3. TMHorizon corrector (Batch 1: +8.7 dmg/run, +0.13 wins/run, 11/15).
+tmhorizon | TR_MOVEMENT=strafe TR_RACK_PATTERN=off TR_RACK_TMHORIZON=both | TMHorizon-only rack
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+# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+# panel_gun_b2.txt — the GUN campaign's WIDER PANEL (Batch 2, 2026-09-26).
+#
+# DO NOT ADD, REMOVE OR REORDER AN OPPONENT without starting a new batch number
+# in docs/gun_campaign.md. Batch 1 used the frozen 15-opponent
+# `panel_movement.txt`; Batch 2 widens to this 32-opponent superset because the
+# Batch-1 arms with a nominal damage edge (BitBrain +10.3, TMHorizon +8.7
+# dmg/run, 11/15 opponents) sat INSIDE the Batch-1 MDE (~12-14 dmg/run), so a
+# wider panel is required to resolve them (rule 3: an effect under the MDE is
+# not detectable, so it must not be called a win OR a null).
+#
+# Composition: the j117 32-opponent legacy roster MINUS Aurora (inert in j117:
+# a single fire in 6 battles — it cannot reveal a gun regression) PLUS SpinBot
+# (the Batch-1 spinner control, absent from the legacy roster) = 31+1 = 32.
+# Every batch-1 opponent except none is covered; 17 opponents are added.
+#
+# Format: <bot dir or name> | <style group> | <note>. `style` is INFERRED from
+# robots.json / the bot name, never decompiled, and is used ONLY to explain a
+# result, never to decide one.
+# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+/tmp/tr_bots/Aristocles | dodger | added by Batch 2 (wider roster)
+/tmp/tr_bots/Ascendant | other | Batch-1 panel member
+/tmp/tr_bots/BlitzBat | regular | Batch-1 panel member
+/tmp/tr_bots/BrokenSword | other | added by Batch 2 (wider roster)
+/tmp/tr_bots/CassiusClay | dodger | Batch-1 panel member
+/tmp/tr_bots/Cigaret | dodger | added by Batch 2 (wider roster)
+/tmp/tr_bots/CigaretBH | dodger | added by Batch 2 (wider roster)
+/tmp/tr_bots/Coriantumr | other | Batch-1 panel member
+/tmp/tr_bots/Diamond | dodger | Batch-1 panel member
+/tmp/tr_bots/DiamondHawk | other | added by Batch 2 (wider roster)
+/tmp/tr_bots/DiamondStealer | regular | Batch-1 panel member
+/tmp/tr_bots/Dookious | dodger | Batch-1 panel member
+/tmp/tr_bots/DrussGT | other | Batch-1 panel member
+/tmp/tr_bots/FloodMini | regular | added by Batch 2 (wider roster)
+/tmp/tr_bots/GresSuffurd | dodger | Batch-1 panel member
+/tmp/tr_bots/HawkOnFire | regular | Batch-1 panel member
+/tmp/tr_bots/Jen | dodger | added by Batch 2 (wider roster)
+/tmp/tr_bots/Komarious | dodger | added by Batch 2 (wider roster)
+/tmp/tr_bots/KurtWaveSurfer | dodger | added by Batch 2 (wider roster)
+/tmp/tr_bots/LightningBug | other | added by Batch 2 (wider roster)
+/tmp/tr_bots/LionWWSVMvoid | dodger | added by Batch 2 (wider roster)
+/tmp/tr_bots/Lukious | dodger | added by Batch 2 (wider roster)
+/tmp/tr_bots/PatternRobot | regular | added by Batch 2 (wider roster)
+/tmp/tr_bots/Phoenix | other | added by Batch 2 (wider roster)
+/tmp/tr_bots/RetroGirl | other | Batch-1 panel member
+/tmp/tr_bots/RougeDC | dodger | added by Batch 2 (wider roster)
+/tmp/tr_bots/Shadow | other | added by Batch 2 (wider roster)
+/tmp/tr_bots/SpinBot | spinner | added by Batch 2 (wider roster)
+/tmp/tr_bots/TripHammer | other | Batch-1 panel member
+/tmp/tr_bots/WallAvoider | regular | Batch-1 panel member
+/tmp/tr_bots/WaveSurferGF | dodger | added by Batch 2 (wider roster)
+/tmp/tr_bots/WaveSurferPG | dodger | added by Batch 2 (wider roster)
+/tmp/tr_bots/YersiniaPestis | other | Batch-1 panel member