gun j121 Batch 1 outcome: onlyPattern CONFIRMED across the 15-opponent panel; pre-register Batch 2 wider-panel calibration

2026-09-26 02:58:41 +02:00
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+# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+# arms_gun_b2.txt — BATCH 2 of the GUN campaign: a WIDER-PANEL calibration of the
+# two arms that carried the only nominal positive signal in Batch 1.
+#
+# Batch 1 (docs/gun_campaign.md, 15-opponent frozen panel, 270 battles) found NO
+# arm beating the shipped `pattern` beyond the MDE, but two arms sat on the
+# positive side of damage with a flat win count:
+#     BitBrain  Δdmg +10.3 (11/15 opponents, sign test p=0.1185, sign-flip
+#               p=0.0325), Δwins +0.11 (MDE 0.35)
+#     TMHorizon Δdmg  +8.7 (11/15, p=0.1185, sign-flip p=0.0992), Δwins +0.13
+# Both damage effects are BELOW the Batch-1 MDE (~12-14 dmg/run), so rule 3 says
+# they are not detectable — they must not be called a win OR a null. Resolving
+# them needs more OPPONENTS, not more runs, so this batch re-runs exactly those
+# two arms plus the reference on tools/ab/panel_gun_b2.txt (33 opponents).
+#
+# Format:  name | ENV=value ENV=value | label
+# MOVEMENT IS PINNED (`TR_MOVEMENT=strafe`) in EVERY arm — same rationale as
+# Batch 1: a default flip may be landing from j120, and the pin makes every
+# delta a pure gun delta and satisfies the analyzer liveness rule.
+# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+# 1. REFERENCE — shipped onlyPattern rack, movement pinned.
+pattern | TR_MOVEMENT=strafe | shipped onlyPattern rack (REFERENCE)
+
+# 2. BitBrain learned-gain corrector (the arm with the largest nominal damage
+#    edge in Batch 1: +10.3 dmg/run, 11/15).
+bitbrain | TR_MOVEMENT=strafe TR_RACK_PATTERN=off TR_RACK_BITBRAIN=both TR_BITBRAIN_GAINS=1.0,1.25,1.5,2.0 TR_BITBRAIN_MEM=decay | BitBrain-only, learned gain (gains 1.0..2.0, decay)
+
+# 3. TMHorizon corrector (Batch 1: +8.7 dmg/run, +0.13 wins/run, 11/15).
+tmhorizon | TR_MOVEMENT=strafe TR_RACK_PATTERN=off TR_RACK_TMHORIZON=both | TMHorizon-only rack