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DrussGT dodge vs fired power: no movement response once range is controlled

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Answers the user's hypothesis that DrussGT dodges low-power shots better.
Measured on 70 live battles / 490 rounds / 54939 real shots vs real DrussGT
(/tmp/tfil_ab2) and replicated on 35 more battles / 24280 shots (/tmp/powtest).

Power is not randomly assigned - our policy caps it by RANGE
(TR_POWER_FAR_DIST=200 -> 1.0) and by OUR OWN ENERGY (the slope), so inside a
range band power is almost a deterministic function of our energy and a naive
low-vs-high comparison is secretly a losing-vs-healthy comparison. Everything
is stratified by range band and backed by a within-band shuffled-label null
(arrival re-derived, so the null keeps the kinematic channel), a round-cluster
bootstrap, and a within-shot CONTROL window 40 ticks later when the bullet is
long gone.

RESULT: no behavioural response. In band 450+ the raw miss distance at arrival
is +8.25 px [+5.39,+11.25] for HIGH power - but per flight tick it is 4.52 vs
4.51 px/tick (delta -0.01 [-0.12,+0.10]), i.e. entirely the 2.13-tick longer
flight window of the slower bullet. Fixed-12-tick lateral displacement is flat
(55.63 vs 55.47, -0.15 [-1.15,+0.84]) and turn rate / speed are flat. The whole
difference is already present 5 ticks after the trigger pull (+4.2 px) and is
just as large in the bullet-free control window (+5.6 px), so it is a property
of the low-energy situation, not of the shot. Hit rate is flat (0.10 vs 0.09).

Corpus/attribution notes: e*=DrussGT (subject), s*=ModularBot, per
TrBattleCapture.java; the Tank-Royale owner id is NOT stable across runs and is
recovered per battle from fire geometry + the energy decrement, cross-checked on
496/496 death events. Geometry validated on the server's own hits (mean miss
11.6 px, 80.6% inside the 18 px radius).
This commit is contained in:
Davide Cappellini
2026-09-24 21:22:38 +02:00
parent 77e6dace01
commit 1adefaba26
4 changed files with 7964 additions and 0 deletions
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common_libs/tests/analyze_drussgt_dodge_vs_power.py
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#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""Does DrussGT's dodge quality change with the bullet power WE fire?
Reads REAL live-vs-real-DrussGT captures (per-tick worldstate jsonl + a
fire/hit event sidecar + a per-round tick index) produced by
``tools/robocode_shim/run_bridge_battle.sh``, and measures DrussGT's movement
response per shot, conditioned on the power ModularBot fired. No offline
fixture replay, no simulator: these are the recorded live battles.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WHY THE OBVIOUS ANALYSIS IS WRONG
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Power is NOT randomly assigned. Our power policy (common_libs/gun_harness/
virtual_bullets.nim) only ever *caps* the gun's preference, by:
* RANGE -- TR_POWER_FAR_DIST=200 -> cap 1.0 beyond it (prFar);
* OUR ENERGY -- a linear slope from TR_POWER_ENERGY_MIN=0.5 at <=20 energy to
the cap at >=80 (prEnergySlope);
* the finishing rule (prFinishKill) and the sub-average-chances rule.
So "shots we fired at low power" are disproportionately long-range shots and
late/low-energy shots. Every comparison below is therefore stratified by the
fire-time range band, the headline is the stratified one, and the between-group
difference is compared against a NULL that permutes the power labels inside the
band (re-deriving the arrival tick so the kinematic channel survives the null).
We also report the confounder itself (our energy, enemy energy) per cell.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WHAT IS MEASURED
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Per shot fired by US (ModularBot) at DrussGT. u = (cos dir, sin dir) is the
direction the bullet was fired; the bullet flies from the fire position along u
at v = 20 - 3p px/tick.
(a) MISS AT ARRIVAL -- perpendicular px between DrussGT's position on the
tick our bullet reaches its along-track plane and our bullet's intended
line. = |perp(perpendicular offset)| at that tick. Bot radius 18 px.
(b) LATERAL DISPLACEMENT -- perp offset change over the flight window, and the
SAME over a FIXED 12-tick window after the shot (power-neutral).
(c) RESPONSE LATENCY -- ticks from our fire until DrussGT's heading has turned
> LAT_DEG from its fire-tick heading.
(d) MEAN TURN RATE and MEAN SPEED over the flight window and the fixed window.
(e) DODGE DIRECTION -- did it move FURTHER off the aim line (|perp| grows).
(f) FLIGHT WINDOW LENGTH -- low power is a FASTER bullet, so a SHORTER window.
Outcome: hit rate per cell, resolved from the real hit/hitwall events.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
THE CONTROL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A real bullet response must appear in the window the bullet is in the air. A
phase/distance artifact would appear just as strongly in a LATER window of the
same shot, when the bullet is long gone. So every metric is also computed over
a CONTROL window at [fire+CTRL_OFF, fire+CTRL_OFF+12] and the two are compared.
Anything that shows up in both is a property of the situation, not of the shot.
Run:
python3 common_libs/tests/analyze_drussgt_dodge_vs_power.py \
--tfil /tmp/tfil_ab2/out --powtest /tmp/powtest \
--json common_libs/tests/fixtures/dodge_vs_power_results.json
MEASURED = the numbers in the tables below (real recorded battles).
INFERRED = the attributions and the causal reading; both are flagged in the doc.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import argparse
import collections
import json
import math
import os
import random
import statistics
BOT_RADIUS = 18.0
SPEED_A, SPEED_B = 20.0, 3.0 # bullet speed = 20 - 3p
LAT_DEG = 15.0 # heading turn that counts as a response
FIXED_WIN = 12 # power-neutral movement window (ticks)
CTRL_OFF = 40 # control window starts here after the fire
RANGE_MATCH_PX = 50 # range sub-bin used to match on range as well
MAX_FLIGHT = 220
BANDS = [(0, 100), (100, 200), (200, 300), (300, 450), (450, 10000)]
BAND_LABELS = ["0-100", "100-200", "200-300", "300-450", "450+"]
PWR_EDGES = [0.0, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0, 1.5, 4.0]
PWR_LABELS = ["<0.50", "0.50-0.75", "0.75-1.00", "1.00-1.50", ">=1.50"]
def pbin(p):
for i in range(len(PWR_EDGES) - 1):
if PWR_EDGES[i] <= p < PWR_EDGES[i + 1]:
return i
return None
def band_of(r):
for i, (lo, hi) in enumerate(BANDS):
if lo <= r < hi:
return BAND_LABELS[i]
return BAND_LABELS[-1]
def wrap180(x):
return abs(((x + 180.0) % 360.0) - 180.0)
def mean(xs):
return statistics.fmean(xs) if xs else float("nan")
def pct(xs, q):
if not xs:
return float("nan")
xs = sorted(xs)
return xs[min(len(xs) - 1, int(q * len(xs)))]
# --------------------------------------------------------------------- loader
def _rows(path):
out = []
with open(path) as f:
for line in f:
line = line.strip()
if not line:
continue
o = json.loads(line)
if "tick" in o:
out.append(o)
return out
class Run:
"""One live battle: capture rows, event sidecar, per-round tick index."""
def __init__(self, cap_path, events_path, rounds_path):
self.cap_path = cap_path
self.rows = _rows(cap_path)
self.by_tick = {r["tick"]: r for r in self.rows}
self.events = [json.loads(l) for l in open(events_path) if l.strip()]
self.rounds = json.load(open(rounds_path))["rounds"]
self.start = {r["round"]: r["startTick"] for r in self.rounds}
self.count = {r["round"]: r["count"] for r in self.rounds}
self.owner_side = self._resolve_owner_side()
self.resolution = {}
for ev in self.events:
if ev.get("type") in ("hit", "hitwall", "hitbullet"):
self.resolution[(ev["round"], ev["owner"], ev["bullet"])] = ev["type"]
# -- attribution ------------------------------------------------------
def _match(self, t, side, ev):
r, r1 = self.by_tick.get(t), self.by_tick.get(t + 1)
if r is None or r1 is None:
return False
if abs(r[side + "x"] - ev["x"]) > 0.02 or abs(r[side + "y"] - ev["y"]) > 0.02:
return False
ef = "ee" if side == "e" else "se"
return abs((r[ef] - r1[ef]) - ev["power"]) < 0.02
def _resolve_owner_side(self):
"""Tank-Royale owner id -> 'e' (DrussGT, the subject) or 's' (us).
The id is NOT stable across runs (bot start order varies), so it is
recovered per battle: a fire event's (x,y) is the firing bot's own
position and that bot's energy drops by exactly the power one tick
later. Cross-checked against the death events (see main())."""
votes = collections.defaultdict(collections.Counter)
for ev in self.events:
if ev.get("type") != "fire":
continue
guess = self.start.get(ev["round"], 0) + ev["tick"]
for t in range(guess - 8, guess + 9):
for side in ("e", "s"):
if self._match(t, side, ev):
votes[ev["owner"]][side] += 1
return {o: c.most_common(1)[0][0] for o, c in votes.items() if c}
def align(self, ev):
guess = self.start.get(ev["round"], 0) + ev["tick"]
side = self.owner_side.get(ev["owner"])
best = None
for t in range(guess - 8, guess + 9):
for sd in (("e", "s") if side is None else (side,)):
if self._match(t, sd, ev):
d = abs(t - guess)
if best is None or d < best[0]:
best = (d, t, sd)
return None if best is None else best[1]
# -- per-shot extraction ---------------------------------------------
def shots(self):
for ev in self.events:
if ev.get("type") != "fire" or self.owner_side.get(ev["owner"]) != "s":
continue
t0 = self.align(ev)
if t0 is None:
continue
s = self._shot(ev, t0)
if s is not None:
yield s
def _shot(self, ev, t0):
r0 = self.by_tick[t0]
p = ev["power"]
th = math.radians(ev["dir"])
ux, uy = math.cos(th), math.sin(th)
x0, y0 = ev["x"], ev["y"]
rnd = ev["round"]
end = self.start[rnd] + self.count[rnd]
rng = math.hypot(r0["ex"] - x0, r0["ey"] - y0)
# per-tick geometry along/perpendicular to the aim line, up to the round
# end (capped); kept so the permutation null can re-derive the arrival.
along, perp, rows = [], [], []
karr = None
perp_arr = None
MIN_V = SPEED_A - SPEED_B * PWR_EDGES[-2] # slowest bullet the null can make
for k in range(1, MAX_FLIGHT + 1):
if t0 + k >= end:
break
r = self.by_tick.get(t0 + k)
if r is None:
break
dx, dy = r["ex"] - x0, r["ey"] - y0
along.append(dx * ux + dy * uy)
perp.append(dx * uy - dy * ux)
rows.append(r)
if karr is None and along[-1] > 0 and (SPEED_A - SPEED_B * p) * k >= along[-1]:
karr, perp_arr = k, perp[-1]
# stop once the real arrival is known, the null's slower arrival could
# still land, and the control window has been collected
if karr is not None and k >= CTRL_OFF + FIXED_WIN and MIN_V * k > along[-1]:
break
if karr is None:
return None
kmax = len(along)
g0 = (r0["ex"] - x0) * uy - (r0["ey"] - y0) * ux
# (b) fixed 12-tick window
lat_fixed = None
if kmax >= FIXED_WIN:
lat_fixed = perp[FIXED_WIN - 1] - g0
# control window (bullet long gone, same phase and range)
lat_ctrl = None
if kmax >= CTRL_OFF + FIXED_WIN:
lat_ctrl = perp[CTRL_OFF + FIXED_WIN - 1] - perp[CTRL_OFF - 1]
# (c) response latency
h0 = r0["eh"]
lat = None
for i in range(karr):
if wrap180(rows[i]["eh"] - h0) > LAT_DEG:
lat = i + 1
break
def kin(lo, n):
"""mean |turn rate| and mean |speed| over ticks [lo+1, lo+n]."""
if lo > len(rows):
return None, None
tt, hh = [], []
prev = r0 if lo == 0 else rows[lo - 1]
for j in range(lo, min(lo + n, kmax)):
r = rows[j]
tt.append(wrap180(r["eh"] - prev["eh"]))
hh.append(abs(r["es"]))
prev = r
if not tt:
return None, None
return mean(tt), mean(hh)
tr_f, sp_f = kin(0, karr)
tr_x, sp_x = kin(0, FIXED_WIN)
tr_c, sp_c = kin(CTRL_OFF, FIXED_WIN)
kind = self.resolution.get((rnd, ev["owner"], ev["bullet"]))
return dict(
run=self.cap_path, rnd=rnd, tick=t0, power=p, speed=SPEED_A - SPEED_B * p,
range=rng, band=band_of(rng), flight=karr,
perp_fire=g0, perp_arr=perp_arr, miss=abs(perp_arr),
miss_per_tick=abs(perp_arr) / karr,
lat_disp=perp_arr - g0, lat_disp_abs=abs(perp_arr - g0),
lat_disp_per_tick=abs(perp_arr - g0) / karr,
lat_fixed=lat_fixed, lat_fixed_abs=None if lat_fixed is None else abs(lat_fixed),
lat_ctrl=lat_ctrl, lat_ctrl_abs=None if lat_ctrl is None else abs(lat_ctrl),
dodge_further=1.0 if abs(perp_arr) > abs(g0) else 0.0,
sign_consist=1.0 if (perp_arr - g0) * perp_arr > 0 else 0.0,
latency=lat, turn_flight=tr_f, speed_flight=sp_f,
turn_fixed=tr_x, speed_fixed=sp_x,
turn_ctrl=tr_c, speed_ctrl=sp_c,
resolution=kind, hit=1.0 if kind == "hit" else 0.0,
our_energy=r0["se"], enemy_energy=r0["ee"],
_dir=ev["dir"], _x=x0, _y=y0, _along=along, _perp=perp,
)
@staticmethod
def _arrival(along, perp, v):
for k in range(1, len(along) + 1):
if along[k - 1] > 0 and v * k >= along[k - 1]:
return k, perp[k - 1]
return None
def discover_tfil(root):
runs = []
for sub in sorted(os.listdir(root)):
d = os.path.join(root, sub)
if not os.path.isdir(d):
continue
for fn in sorted(os.listdir(d)):
if not fn.endswith(".jsonl") or fn.endswith(".events.jsonl"):
continue
cap = os.path.join(d, fn)
ev, rj = cap[:-6] + ".events.jsonl", cap + ".rounds.json"
if os.path.exists(ev) and os.path.exists(rj):
runs.append(Run(cap, ev, rj))
return runs
def discover_powtest(root, arms=None):
runs = []
for fn in sorted(os.listdir(root)):
if not (fn.startswith("cap_") and fn.endswith(".jsonl")):
continue
arm = fn[4:].split("_r")[0]
if arms and arm not in arms:
continue
cap = os.path.join(root, fn)
ev = os.path.join(root, "events_" + fn[4:].replace(".jsonl", ".json"))
rj = cap + ".rounds.json"
if os.path.exists(ev) and os.path.exists(rj):
runs.append(Run(cap, ev, rj))
return runs
# --------------------------------------------------------------- statistics
def cell_stats(shots, key, only=None):
"""{(band, pbin): (n, mean, sd)}"""
acc = collections.defaultdict(list)
for s in shots:
if only and not only(s):
continue
v = s.get(key)
if v is None:
continue
i = pbin(s["power"])
if i is None:
continue
acc[(s["band"], i)].append(v)
return {k: (len(v), mean(v), statistics.pstdev(v) if len(v) > 1 else 0.0)
for k, v in acc.items()}
def perm_key(s, p):
"""Re-derive the arrival-dependent metrics for a substituted power."""
v = SPEED_A - SPEED_B * p
arr = Run._arrival(s["_along"], s["_perp"], v)
if arr is None:
return None
k, pe = arr
return {"power": p, "flight": k, "miss": abs(pe),
"miss_per_tick": abs(pe) / k,
"lat_disp_abs": abs(pe - s["perp_fire"]),
"lat_disp_per_tick": abs(pe - s["perp_fire"]) / k}
ARRIVAL_METRICS = ("miss", "lat_disp_abs", "flight", "miss_per_tick",
"lat_disp_per_tick")
def perm_contrast_null(shots, key, reps, seed=4242):
"""Per range band, the permutation null of delta = mean(HIGH) - mean(LOW).
For the arrival-dependent metrics each shot carries TWO precomputed values:
the metric it would have had at a typical LOW power and at a typical HIGH
power of that band (arrival tick re-derived, so the kinematic channel is
preserved). The null then draws a random subset of n_high shots to be the
HIGH arm -- which is exactly a permutation of the power values among the
shots of the band. Metrics that do not depend mechanically on power get the
same value in both arms, i.e. a plain label permutation.
Returns {band: (observed delta, null sd, two-sided p)}.
"""
rng = random.Random(seed)
by_band = collections.defaultdict(list)
for s in shots:
if grp(s) is not None and s.get(key) is not None:
by_band[s["band"]].append(s)
out = {}
for b, ss in by_band.items():
lo = [s for s in ss if grp(s) == "LOW"]
hi = [s for s in ss if grp(s) == "HIGH"]
if len(lo) < 15 or len(hi) < 15:
continue
p_lo = mean([s["power"] for s in lo])
p_hi = mean([s["power"] for s in hi])
if key in ARRIVAL_METRICS:
def val(s, p):
d = perm_key(s, p)
return None if d is None else d[key]
lows = [val(s, p_lo) for s in ss]
highs = [val(s, p_hi) for s in ss]
keep = [i for i in range(len(ss)) if lows[i] is not None and highs[i] is not None]
lows = [lows[i] for i in keep]
highs = [highs[i] for i in keep]
tag = [1 if grp(ss[i]) == "HIGH" else 0 for i in keep]
obs = (mean([highs[j] for j in range(len(keep)) if tag[j] == 1])
- mean([lows[j] for j in range(len(keep)) if tag[j] == 0]))
else:
vals = [s[key] for s in ss]
lows = highs = vals
tag = [1 if grp(s) == "HIGH" else 0 for s in ss]
obs = mean([v for v, t in zip(vals, tag) if t == 1]) - \
mean([v for v, t in zip(vals, tag) if t == 0])
n = len(keep) if key in ARRIVAL_METRICS else len(ss)
k = sum(tag)
deltas = []
for _ in range(reps):
idx = list(range(n))
rng.shuffle(idx)
sel = set(idx[:k])
if key in ARRIVAL_METRICS:
deltas.append(mean([highs[j] for j in sel]) -
mean([lows[j] for j in range(n) if j not in sel]))
else:
deltas.append(mean([lows[j] for j in sel]) -
mean([lows[j] for j in range(n) if j not in sel]))
p_hi_ = (sum(1 for x in deltas if x >= obs) + 1) / (reps + 1)
p_lo_ = (sum(1 for x in deltas if x <= obs) + 1) / (reps + 1)
out[b] = (obs, statistics.pstdev(deltas), min(1.0, 2 * min(p_hi_, p_lo_)))
return out
def fixed_horizon(shots, ks=(5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30)):
"""The confound-free test.
Instead of the arrival tick (which power itself moves, and which also depends
on DrussGT's radial velocity), measure |perpendicular offset from the aim
line| at a FIXED number of ticks after the fire, and the same quantity in the
CONTROL window CTRL_OFF ticks later (bullet long gone). A response to the
shot would be ~0 at small k and grow with k. A phase/distance difference is
present already at k=5 and identical in the bullet-free control window.
Returns {band: {k: (low, high, nlow, nhigh, ctrl_low, ctrl_high)}}."""
out = {}
for b in BAND_LABELS:
ss = [s for s in shots if s["band"] == b and grp(s) is not None]
if len(ss) < 200:
continue
for k in ks:
lo = [abs(s["_perp"][k - 1]) for s in ss
if grp(s) == "LOW" and len(s["_perp"]) >= k]
hi = [abs(s["_perp"][k - 1]) for s in ss
if grp(s) == "HIGH" and len(s["_perp"]) >= k]
cl = [abs(s["_perp"][k + CTRL_OFF - 1]) for s in ss
if grp(s) == "LOW" and len(s["_perp"]) >= k + CTRL_OFF]
ch = [abs(s["_perp"][k + CTRL_OFF - 1]) for s in ss
if grp(s) == "HIGH" and len(s["_perp"]) >= k + CTRL_OFF]
out.setdefault(b, {})[k] = (mean(lo), mean(hi), len(lo), len(hi),
mean(cl), mean(ch))
return out
def flight_matched(shots):
_doc_extra = None
"""The kinematic channel removed outright.
Two matching variables at once, because they are both mechanical and both
differ between the arms: (i) the flight window itself (v = 20-3p, so a slower
bullet flies longer and DrussGT drifts further off the line) and (ii) the fire
RANGE inside the band (at a fixed flight window, a slower bullet implies a
shorter range, and the gun's aim error grows with range). Cells are
(integer flight window, 50 px range sub-bin) and only cells with >= MIN_CELL
shots in BOTH arms contribute; the per-cell differences are pooled with n
weights. Anything left here is not a flight-time or a range artefact.
Returns {band: (delta, n_used, cells, null_sd, p)}.
"""
MIN_CELL = 8
out = {}
for b in BAND_LABELS:
ss = [s for s in shots if s["band"] == b and grp(s) is not None]
by = collections.defaultdict(lambda: {"LOW": [], "HIGH": []})
for s in ss:
by[(s["flight"], int(s["range"] // RANGE_MATCH_PX))][grp(s)].append(s)
pairs = [(fl, d) for fl, d in by.items()
if len(d["LOW"]) >= MIN_CELL and len(d["HIGH"]) >= MIN_CELL]
if not pairs:
continue
num = den = 0.0
for fl, d in pairs:
w = len(d["LOW"]) + len(d["HIGH"])
num += w * (mean([s["miss"] for s in d["HIGH"]])
- mean([s["miss"] for s in d["LOW"]]))
den += w
cells = [(fl, d["LOW"], d["HIGH"]) for fl, d in pairs]
out[b] = (num / den, int(den), len(pairs), cells)
return out
def flight_matched_null(shots, reps=400, seed=808):
"""Permutation null of the flight-matched contrast (labels shuffled inside
each band, so the flight bins and their sizes are preserved)."""
rng = random.Random(seed)
res = {}
for b in BAND_LABELS:
ss = [s for s in shots if s["band"] == b and grp(s) is not None]
if not ss:
continue
vals = [s["miss"] for s in ss]
fls = [s["flight"] for s in ss]
tag = [grp(s) == "HIGH" for s in ss]
n = len(ss)
k = sum(tag)
if k < 20 or n - k < 20:
continue
rgs = [s["range"] for s in ss]
bins = collections.defaultdict(list)
for i in range(n):
bins[(fls[i], int(rgs[i] // RANGE_MATCH_PX))].append(i)
pool = [ix for ix in bins.values() if len(ix) >= 16]
if not pool:
continue
ds = []
for _ in range(reps):
perm = tag[:]
# shuffle labels within flight bin (preserves the bin sizes and the
# flight distribution of both arms)
for ix in pool:
sub = [perm[i] for i in ix]
rng.shuffle(sub)
for i, t in zip(ix, sub):
perm[i] = t
num = den = 0.0
for ix in pool:
a = [vals[i] for i in ix if not perm[i]]
c = [vals[i] for i in ix if perm[i]]
if len(a) >= 8 and len(c) >= 8:
num += (len(a) + len(c)) * (mean(c) - mean(a))
den += len(a) + len(c)
if den:
ds.append(num / den)
obs_num = obs_den = 0.0
for ix in pool:
a = [vals[i] for i in ix if not tag[i]]
c = [vals[i] for i in ix if tag[i]]
if len(a) >= 8 and len(c) >= 8:
obs_num += (len(a) + len(c)) * (mean(c) - mean(a))
obs_den += len(a) + len(c)
if ds and obs_den:
obs = obs_num / obs_den
p_hi = (sum(1 for x in ds if x >= obs) + 1) / (len(ds) + 1)
p_lo = (sum(1 for x in ds if x <= obs) + 1) / (len(ds) + 1)
res[b] = (obs, obs_den, statistics.pstdev(ds),
min(1.0, 2 * min(p_hi, p_lo)))
return res
def grp(s):
return "LOW" if 0.5 <= s["power"] < 0.75 else (
"HIGH" if 1.0 <= s["power"] < 1.5 else None)
def cluster_boot(shots, key, group_fn, reps=2000, seed=99):
"""Round-cluster bootstrap over the per-run aggregates of `key` by group."""
by_run = collections.defaultdict(list)
for s in shots:
if s.get(key) is not None:
by_run[s["run"]].append(s)
runs = list(by_run)
# pre-aggregate per run per group
agg = {}
for r in runs:
g = collections.defaultdict(lambda: [0.0, 0])
for s in by_run[r]:
grp = group_fn(s)
if grp is None:
continue
g[grp][0] += s[key]
g[grp][1] += 1
agg[r] = {k: (v[0], v[1]) for k, v in g.items()}
rng = random.Random(seed)
out = collections.defaultdict(list)
for _ in range(reps):
tot = collections.defaultdict(lambda: [0.0, 0])
for _ in runs:
r = rng.choice(runs)
for k, (s_, c_) in agg[r].items():
tot[k][0] += s_
tot[k][1] += c_
for k, (s_, c_) in tot.items():
if c_:
out[k].append(s_ / c_)
return {k: (pct(v, .025), pct(v, .975)) for k, v in out.items()}
# --------------------------------------------------------------------- report
def report(name, runs, shots, reps, out):
print("=" * 104)
print("CORPUS %-10s %d battles %d rounds %d usable shots by US (ModularBot)"
% (name, len(runs), sum(len(r.rounds) for r in runs), len(shots)))
# ---- attribution cross-check against the death events
bad = tot = 0
for r in runs:
for ev in r.events:
if ev.get("type") != "death":
continue
end = r.start[ev["round"]] + r.count[ev["round"]] - 1
row = r.by_tick.get(end)
if row is None:
continue
tot += 1
vs = r.owner_side.get(ev["victim"])
if (vs == "e" and row["ee"] > 1.0) or (vs == "s" and row["se"] > 1.0):
bad += 1
print(" attribution: owner id -> {e=DrussGT, s=us} recovered per battle from fire"
" geometry+energy;\n cross-checked on the death events: %d/%d"
" deaths have the mapped victim at ~0 energy" % (tot - bad, tot))
print(" (attribution is per-battle because the Tank Royale owner id is not stable"
" across runs)")
# ---- the confounder, made visible
print("\n >> THE CONFOUNDER IS REAL: our fired power is a range + energy cap")
print(" %-9s %-11s %7s %8s %9s %9s %9s" %
("band", "power", "shots", "firePx", "ourE", "enemyE", "flight"))
for b in BAND_LABELS:
for i in range(len(PWR_EDGES) - 1):
ss = [s for s in shots if s["band"] == b and pbin(s["power"]) == i]
if len(ss) < 5:
continue
print(" %-9s %-11s %7d %8.1f %9.1f %9.1f %9.2f" % (
b, PWR_LABELS[i], len(ss), mean([s["range"] for s in ss]),
mean([s["our_energy"] for s in ss]),
mean([s["enemy_energy"] for s in ss]),
mean([s["flight"] for s in ss])))
RES = out
for key, title in (
("miss", "(a) MISS AT ARRIVAL px - perpendicular offset of DrussGT from our aim line"),
("miss_per_tick", "(a') MISS AT ARRIVAL / flight ticks (px per tick - power-neutral)"),
("lat_disp_abs", "(b) LATERAL DISPLACEMENT px over the flight window"),
("lat_disp_per_tick", "(b/ ) LATERAL DISPLACEMENT / flight ticks"
" (px per tick - power-neutral)"),
("lat_fixed_abs", "(b') LATERAL DISPLACEMENT px over a FIXED 12-tick window"
" (power-neutral)"),
("lat_ctrl_abs", "(b'') CONTROL: lateral displacement px, SAME shot, 40 ticks later"
" (bullet gone)"),
("flight", "(f) FLIGHT WINDOW LENGTH ticks (low power = FASTER bullet = shorter)"),
("latency", "(c) RESPONSE LATENCY ticks to a >%g deg heading turn" % LAT_DEG),
("turn_flight", "(d) MEAN TURN RATE deg/tick, flight window"),
("turn_fixed", "(d') MEAN TURN RATE deg/tick, fixed 12-tick window"),
("turn_ctrl", "(d'') CONTROL: mean turn rate deg/tick, 40 ticks later"),
("speed_flight", "(d) MEAN SPEED px/tick, flight window"),
("speed_ctrl", "(d'') CONTROL: mean speed px/tick, 40 ticks later"),
("dodge_further", "(e) fraction where |perp| GREW (moved further off the line)"),
("hit", "OUTCOME hit rate (real server events)"),
):
cs = cell_stats(shots, key)
print("\n %s" % title)
print(" %-9s" % "band" + "".join("%22s" % l for l in PWR_LABELS))
for b in BAND_LABELS:
cells, ns = [], []
for i in range(len(PWR_EDGES) - 1):
n, m, sd = cs.get((b, i), (0, float("nan"), 0.0))
cells.append(m)
ns.append(n)
RES.setdefault("tables", {}).setdefault(key, {}).setdefault(b, {})[
PWR_LABELS[i]] = {"n": n, "mean": None if n == 0 else m, "sd": sd}
print(" %-9s" % b + "".join(
"%22s" % ("%.2f" % c if c == c else "-") for c in cells))
print(" %-9s" % "" + "".join("%22s" % ("n=%d" % n) for n in ns))
# ---- shuffled-label null, per band, on the LOW-vs-HIGH contrast
print("\n" + "-" * 104)
print("SHUFFLED-LABEL NULL (labels permuted WITHIN each range band, %d reps)" % reps)
print(" For the arrival-dependent metrics the arrival tick is RE-DERIVED from the"
" permuted power,\n so the null keeps the kinematic channel (a slower bullet"
" really does arrive later) and destroys\n only the response. p is the two-sided"
" permutation p on delta = mean(HIGH) - mean(LOW) inside that band.")
RES["perm"] = {}
for key in ("miss", "miss_per_tick", "lat_disp_abs", "flight",
"lat_fixed_abs", "lat_ctrl_abs", "latency", "turn_fixed", "turn_ctrl",
"speed_fixed", "hit"):
print(" %-16s" % key, end="")
cells = perm_contrast_null(shots, key, reps)
RES["perm"][key] = {}
for b in BAND_LABELS:
if b in cells:
d, sd, p2 = cells[b]
print(" %s d=%+.3f(null sd=%.3f,p=%.3f)" % (b, d, sd, p2), end="")
RES["perm"][key][b] = {"delta": d, "null_sd": sd, "p_two": p2}
else:
print(" %s n/a" % b, end="")
print()
# ---- the decisive fixed-horizon / control-window test
print("\n" + "-" * 104)
print("FIXED-HORIZON TEST (no arrival tick, no flight-window confound)")
print(" |perpendicular offset of DrussGT from our aim line| at k ticks after the fire"
" (flight window),\n and the same quantity in the CONTROL window at k+%d ticks,"
" when the bullet is long gone.\n A response to our shot would be ~0 at k=5 and"
" grow with k; a phase/geometry difference is\n present at k=5 and identical in"
" the control." % CTRL_OFF)
fh = fixed_horizon(shots)
RES["fixed_horizon"] = {}
for b in BAND_LABELS:
if b not in fh:
continue
print(" band %s (nLOW=%d nHIGH=%d per k)" % (b, fh[b][5][2], fh[b][5][3]))
for k, (lo, hi, nlo, nhi, cl, ch) in sorted(fh[b].items()):
print(" k=%2d flight: LOW=%7.1f HIGH=%7.1f d=%+6.2f | control(+%d):"
" LOW=%7.1f HIGH=%7.1f d=%+6.2f"
% (k, lo, hi, hi - lo, CTRL_OFF, cl, ch, ch - cl))
RES["fixed_horizon"].setdefault(b, {})[k] = {
"low": lo, "high": hi, "delta": hi - lo, "n_low": nlo, "n_high": nhi,
"ctrl_low": cl, "ctrl_high": ch, "ctrl_delta": ch - cl}
# ---- flight-matched contrast: the kinematic channel removed
print("\n" + "-" * 104)
print("FLIGHT- *AND* RANGE-MATCHED CONTRAST (kinematics and range both removed)")
print(" Within each range band we compare LOW vs HIGH power only inside the SAME cell"
" = (integer\n flight window, 50 px range sub-bin), pooling the per-cell differences"
" with n weights. A longer\n window lets DrussGT drift further off the line; at a"
" fixed window a slower bullet implies a\n shorter range and the gun's aim error"
" grows with range. Anything left here is neither.")
fm = flight_matched(shots)
fnull = flight_matched_null(shots, reps)
print(" %-9s %8s %8s %8s | %10s %8s %8s" %
("band", "obs d", "n used", "bins", "null sd", "p_two", ""))
RES["flight_matched"] = {}
for b in BAND_LABELS:
if b in fnull:
obs, nused, sd, p2 = fnull[b]
print(" %-9s %+8.2f %8d %8d | %10.2f %8.3f"
% (b, obs, nused, fm.get(b, (0, 0, 0, []))[2], sd, p2))
RES["flight_matched"][b] = {"delta": obs, "n": nused, "null_sd": sd,
"p_two": p2}
# ---- the headline within-band contrast: LOW (0.50-0.75) vs HIGH (1.00-1.50)
print("\n" + "-" * 104)
print("HEADLINE WITHIN-BAND CONTRAST LOW p in [0.50,0.75) vs HIGH p in [1.00,1.50)")
print(" (HELD fixed inside each range band; 95%% CI from a ROUND-cluster bootstrap)"
"\n")
hdr = (" %-14s %-9s %7s %7s | %8s %8s %8s %8s" %
("metric", "band", "nLOW", "nHIGH", "LOW", "HIGH", "delta", "95% CI"))
for key in ("miss", "miss_per_tick", "lat_disp_abs", "lat_disp_per_tick",
"lat_fixed_abs", "lat_ctrl_abs", "flight", "latency", "turn_flight",
"turn_fixed", "turn_ctrl", "speed_flight", "speed_ctrl", "hit"):
print(hdr)
for b in BAND_LABELS:
ss = [s for s in shots if s["band"] == b and grp(s) and s.get(key) is not None]
lo = [s[key] for s in ss if grp(s) == "LOW"]
hi = [s[key] for s in ss if grp(s) == "HIGH"]
if len(lo) < 15 or len(hi) < 15:
print(" %-14s %-9s %7d %7d | (too few for a contrast)" %
(key, b, len(lo), len(hi)))
RES.setdefault("contrast", {}).setdefault(key, {})[b] = {
"n_low": len(lo), "n_high": len(hi)}
continue
ci = cluster_boot(ss, key, grp)
d = mean(hi) - mean(lo)
print(" %-14s %-9s %7d %7d | %8.2f %8.2f %+8.2f [%+.2f,%+.2f]" % (
key, b, len(lo), len(hi), mean(lo), mean(hi), d,
ci.get("HIGH", (float("nan"),) * 2)[0] - ci.get("LOW", (0, 0))[1],
ci.get("HIGH", (0, 0))[1] - ci.get("LOW", (float("nan"),) * 2)[0]))
RES.setdefault("contrast", {}).setdefault(key, {})[b] = {
"n_low": len(lo), "n_high": len(hi), "low": mean(lo), "high": mean(hi),
"delta": d,
"ci_lo": ci.get("HIGH", (float("nan"),) * 2)[0] - ci.get("LOW", (0, 0))[1],
"ci_hi": ci.get("HIGH", (0, 0))[1] - ci.get("LOW", (float("nan"),) * 2)[0]}
print()
# ---- power histogram of OUR shots, for the record
h = collections.Counter(round(s["power"], 2) for s in shots)
print(" OUR fired-power histogram (exact values, top 12):")
print(" " + " ".join("%.2f:%d" % (p, n) for p, n in h.most_common(12)))
def main():
ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
ap.add_argument("--tfil", default=None)
ap.add_argument("--powtest", default=None)
ap.add_argument("--json", default=None)
ap.add_argument("--reps", type=int, default=800)
a = ap.parse_args()
out = {}
for name, runs in (("tfil_ab2", discover_tfil(a.tfil) if a.tfil else []),
("powtest", discover_powtest(a.powtest) if a.powtest else [])):
if not runs:
continue
shots = [s for r in runs for s in r.shots()]
out[name] = {"battles": len(runs), "shots": len(shots)}
report(name, runs, shots, a.reps, out[name])
if a.json:
with open(a.json, "w") as f:
json.dump(out, f, indent=1, sort_keys=True)
return out
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()
common_libs/tests/fixtures/dodge_vs_power_report.txt
Vendored
+760
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@@ -0,0 +1,760 @@
========================================================================================================
CORPUS tfil_ab2 70 battles 490 rounds 54939 usable shots by US (ModularBot)
attribution: owner id -> {e=DrussGT, s=us} recovered per battle from fire geometry+energy;
cross-checked on the death events: 496/496 deaths have the mapped victim at ~0 energy
(attribution is per-battle because the Tank Royale owner id is not stable across runs)
>> THE CONFOUNDER IS REAL: our fired power is a range + energy cap
band power shots firePx ourE enemyE flight
0-100 0.50-0.75 6 82.7 15.5 16.8 6.50
0-100 >=1.50 19 80.3 63.7 57.0 10.89
100-200 <0.50 5 160.9 8.6 0.6 10.00
100-200 0.50-0.75 53 165.8 13.2 18.8 10.42
100-200 0.75-1.00 5 177.3 29.0 33.7 11.00
100-200 1.00-1.50 23 168.4 85.0 83.1 11.87
100-200 >=1.50 191 158.7 75.8 71.0 14.86
200-300 <0.50 6 257.0 99.7 99.8 15.33
200-300 0.50-0.75 130 266.8 12.7 20.0 15.28
200-300 0.75-1.00 21 262.7 28.8 26.7 16.14
200-300 1.00-1.50 780 261.2 83.6 81.5 16.86
200-300 >=1.50 56 248.4 32.0 15.7 21.95
300-450 <0.50 333 409.1 14.5 1.9 20.96
300-450 0.50-0.75 5272 411.3 13.8 19.2 22.36
300-450 0.75-1.00 880 407.7 29.0 28.5 23.49
300-450 1.00-1.50 10696 402.0 69.2 62.6 23.70
450+ <0.50 950 537.0 14.2 1.1 27.03
450+ 0.50-0.75 12960 536.1 13.7 18.6 28.38
450+ 0.75-1.00 2424 540.4 28.8 26.4 30.18
450+ 1.00-1.50 20126 534.2 63.0 53.8 30.52
(a) MISS AT ARRIVAL px - perpendicular offset of DrussGT from our aim line
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - 23.96 - 32.97 37.21
n=0 n=6 n=0 n=2 n=19
100-200 46.00 43.03 33.87 47.92 59.00
n=5 n=53 n=5 n=23 n=191
200-300 53.19 74.31 79.82 74.72 113.81
n=6 n=130 n=21 n=780 n=56
300-450 112.84 104.67 109.32 110.55 177.09
n=333 n=5272 n=880 n=10696 n=1
450+ 130.86 124.01 132.35 132.26 -
n=950 n=12960 n=2424 n=20126 n=0
(a') MISS AT ARRIVAL / flight ticks (px per tick - power-neutral)
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - 3.72 - 4.85 3.61
n=0 n=6 n=0 n=2 n=19
100-200 4.77 4.45 3.32 4.05 4.37
n=5 n=53 n=5 n=23 n=191
200-300 3.41 5.01 5.18 4.67 5.47
n=6 n=130 n=21 n=780 n=56
300-450 5.52 4.85 4.85 4.88 9.84
n=333 n=5272 n=880 n=10696 n=1
450+ 4.97 4.52 4.55 4.51 -
n=950 n=12960 n=2424 n=20126 n=0
(b) LATERAL DISPLACEMENT px over the flight window
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - 30.64 - 42.81 47.99
n=0 n=6 n=0 n=2 n=19
100-200 46.73 37.57 45.85 56.50 64.60
n=5 n=53 n=5 n=23 n=191
200-300 79.80 59.91 58.51 71.56 103.43
n=6 n=130 n=21 n=780 n=56
300-450 62.79 88.47 94.34 91.94 57.29
n=333 n=5272 n=880 n=10696 n=1
450+ 78.40 97.42 102.03 103.30 -
n=950 n=12960 n=2424 n=20126 n=0
(b/ ) LATERAL DISPLACEMENT / flight ticks (px per tick - power-neutral)
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - 4.66 - 6.54 4.54
n=0 n=6 n=0 n=2 n=19
100-200 4.38 3.44 3.77 4.76 4.22
n=5 n=53 n=5 n=23 n=191
200-300 5.13 3.79 3.45 4.12 4.75
n=6 n=130 n=21 n=780 n=56
300-450 2.96 3.94 4.00 3.86 3.18
n=333 n=5272 n=880 n=10696 n=1
450+ 2.90 3.47 3.41 3.42 -
n=950 n=12960 n=2424 n=20126 n=0
(b') LATERAL DISPLACEMENT px over a FIXED 12-tick window (power-neutral)
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - 59.58 - 85.08 55.36
n=0 n=6 n=0 n=2 n=19
100-200 56.15 43.26 46.77 59.47 51.69
n=5 n=52 n=5 n=23 n=188
200-300 64.29 47.20 40.99 50.09 54.53
n=6 n=130 n=21 n=780 n=56
300-450 42.81 54.20 54.14 52.75 38.69
n=333 n=5272 n=880 n=10696 n=1
450+ 45.56 55.63 54.97 55.47 -
n=950 n=12960 n=2424 n=20126 n=0
(b'') CONTROL: lateral displacement px, SAME shot, 40 ticks later (bullet gone)
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - 47.22 - 59.18 54.33
n=0 n=5 n=0 n=2 n=15
100-200 46.20 46.92 12.30 50.59 45.10
n=2 n=41 n=5 n=23 n=170
200-300 56.80 43.68 49.06 49.21 41.62
n=6 n=127 n=21 n=780 n=32
300-450 37.42 52.80 53.83 51.95 61.95
n=265 n=5155 n=877 n=10695 n=1
450+ 42.34 52.03 52.53 52.64 -
n=821 n=12828 n=2421 n=20120 n=0
(f) FLIGHT WINDOW LENGTH ticks (low power = FASTER bullet = shorter)
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - 6.50 - 6.50 10.89
n=0 n=6 n=0 n=2 n=19
100-200 10.00 10.42 11.00 11.87 14.86
n=5 n=53 n=5 n=23 n=191
200-300 15.33 15.28 16.14 16.86 21.95
n=6 n=130 n=21 n=780 n=56
300-450 20.96 22.36 23.49 23.70 18.00
n=333 n=5272 n=880 n=10696 n=1
450+ 27.03 28.38 30.18 30.52 -
n=950 n=12960 n=2424 n=20126 n=0
(c) RESPONSE LATENCY ticks to a >15 deg heading turn
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - 4.20 - 4.00 5.67
n=0 n=5 n=0 n=2 n=15
100-200 6.25 6.34 5.50 6.44 7.00
n=4 n=29 n=2 n=16 n=148
200-300 8.33 9.03 10.00 7.68 9.27
n=6 n=78 n=11 n=566 n=49
300-450 10.99 11.55 11.84 11.46 2.00
n=149 n=2968 n=525 n=6860 n=1
450+ 13.37 13.60 14.57 14.27 -
n=559 n=8682 n=1745 n=13884 n=0
(d) MEAN TURN RATE deg/tick, flight window
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - 2.83 - 3.89 3.48
n=0 n=6 n=0 n=2 n=19
100-200 3.77 2.01 3.39 2.86 2.78
n=5 n=53 n=5 n=23 n=191
200-300 3.55 2.08 1.72 2.49 2.07
n=6 n=130 n=21 n=780 n=56
300-450 1.30 1.48 1.48 1.61 3.30
n=333 n=5272 n=880 n=10696 n=1
450+ 1.37 1.49 1.51 1.46 -
n=950 n=12960 n=2424 n=20126 n=0
(d') MEAN TURN RATE deg/tick, fixed 12-tick window
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - 2.54 - 2.91 3.43
n=0 n=6 n=0 n=2 n=19
100-200 3.64 2.09 3.37 2.66 2.64
n=5 n=53 n=5 n=23 n=191
200-300 3.22 1.91 1.45 2.22 2.03
n=6 n=130 n=21 n=780 n=56
300-450 1.33 1.46 1.45 1.50 2.78
n=333 n=5272 n=880 n=10696 n=1
450+ 1.36 1.43 1.46 1.28 -
n=950 n=12960 n=2424 n=20126 n=0
(d'') CONTROL: mean turn rate deg/tick, 40 ticks later
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - 3.07 - 2.91 3.18
n=0 n=5 n=0 n=2 n=15
100-200 2.93 2.20 2.61 3.04 2.61
n=3 n=44 n=5 n=23 n=174
200-300 2.80 1.78 1.35 2.19 3.17
n=6 n=127 n=21 n=780 n=37
300-450 1.31 1.44 1.38 1.57 2.99
n=295 n=5211 n=878 n=10696 n=1
450+ 1.30 1.52 1.54 1.58 -
n=886 n=12902 n=2423 n=20126 n=0
(d) MEAN SPEED px/tick, flight window
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - 7.39 - 8.00 7.45
n=0 n=6 n=0 n=2 n=19
100-200 5.73 6.05 4.83 6.05 5.87
n=5 n=53 n=5 n=23 n=191
200-300 6.18 5.39 5.64 5.44 6.20
n=6 n=130 n=21 n=780 n=56
300-450 5.41 5.49 5.53 5.49 3.94
n=333 n=5272 n=880 n=10696 n=1
450+ 5.37 5.46 5.44 5.48 -
n=950 n=12960 n=2424 n=20126 n=0
(d'') CONTROL: mean speed px/tick, 40 ticks later
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - 6.07 - 6.23 6.33
n=0 n=5 n=0 n=2 n=15
100-200 5.23 5.84 3.45 5.86 5.73
n=3 n=44 n=5 n=23 n=174
200-300 6.32 5.63 6.45 5.48 6.53
n=6 n=127 n=21 n=780 n=37
300-450 5.48 5.50 5.56 5.45 5.37
n=295 n=5211 n=878 n=10696 n=1
450+ 5.37 5.46 5.46 5.47 -
n=886 n=12902 n=2423 n=20126 n=0
(e) fraction where |perp| GREW (moved further off the line)
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - 0.50 - 0.50 0.63
n=0 n=6 n=0 n=2 n=19
100-200 0.40 0.40 0.60 0.52 0.60
n=5 n=53 n=5 n=23 n=191
200-300 0.50 0.54 0.52 0.59 0.77
n=6 n=130 n=21 n=780 n=56
300-450 0.54 0.57 0.59 0.60 1.00
n=333 n=5272 n=880 n=10696 n=1
450+ 0.56 0.59 0.60 0.61 -
n=950 n=12960 n=2424 n=20126 n=0
OUTCOME hit rate (real server events)
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - 0.67 - 0.50 0.32
n=0 n=6 n=0 n=2 n=19
100-200 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.39 0.20
n=5 n=53 n=5 n=23 n=191
200-300 0.50 0.18 0.10 0.16 0.07
n=6 n=130 n=21 n=780 n=56
300-450 0.03 0.11 0.13 0.12 0.00
n=333 n=5272 n=880 n=10696 n=1
450+ 0.01 0.10 0.09 0.09 -
n=950 n=12960 n=2424 n=20126 n=0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHUFFLED-LABEL NULL (labels permuted WITHIN each range band, 400 reps)
For the arrival-dependent metrics the arrival tick is RE-DERIVED from the permuted power,
so the null keeps the kinematic channel (a slower bullet really does arrive later) and destroys
only the response. p is the two-sided permutation p on delta = mean(HIGH) - mean(LOW) inside that band.
miss 0-100 n/a 100-200 d=+5.354(null sd=7.077,p=0.893) 200-300 d=+0.348(null sd=4.611,p=0.389) 300-450 d=+5.913(null sd=1.285,p=0.274) 450+ d=+8.238(null sd=1.040,p=0.005)
miss_per_tick 0-100 n/a 100-200 d=-0.354(null sd=0.692,p=0.623) 200-300 d=-0.342(null sd=0.332,p=0.524) 300-450 d=+0.026(null sd=0.064,p=0.010) 450+ d=-0.008(null sd=0.040,p=0.005)
lat_disp_abs 0-100 n/a 100-200 d=+19.401(null sd=7.561,p=0.075) 200-300 d=+11.592(null sd=3.772,p=0.075) 300-450 d=+3.497(null sd=0.895,p=0.444) 450+ d=+5.865(null sd=0.679,p=0.005)
flight 0-100 n/a 100-200 d=+1.473(null sd=0.557,p=0.584) 200-300 d=+1.553(null sd=0.209,p=0.319) 300-450 d=+1.349(null sd=0.044,p=0.005) 450+ d=+2.131(null sd=0.039,p=0.015)
lat_fixed_abs 0-100 n/a 100-200 d=+16.205(null sd=6.822,p=0.020) 200-300 d=+2.890(null sd=2.739,p=0.269) 300-450 d=-1.453(null sd=0.521,p=0.005) 450+ d=-0.154(null sd=0.340,p=0.663)
lat_ctrl_abs 0-100 n/a 100-200 d=+3.671(null sd=7.943,p=0.683) 200-300 d=+5.532(null sd=2.951,p=0.095) 300-450 d=-0.846(null sd=0.492,p=0.095) 450+ d=+0.610(null sd=0.339,p=0.080)
latency 0-100 n/a 100-200 d=+0.093(null sd=1.210,p=0.898) 200-300 d=-1.349(null sd=0.628,p=0.035) 300-450 d=-0.094(null sd=0.145,p=0.484) 450+ d=+0.677(null sd=0.117,p=0.005)
turn_fixed 0-100 n/a 100-200 d=+0.574(null sd=0.406,p=0.150) 200-300 d=+0.316(null sd=0.147,p=0.040) 300-450 d=+0.034(null sd=0.021,p=0.125) 450+ d=-0.148(null sd=0.012,p=0.005)
turn_ctrl 0-100 n/a 100-200 d=+0.839(null sd=0.442,p=0.060) 200-300 d=+0.407(null sd=0.154,p=0.005) 300-450 d=+0.135(null sd=0.021,p=0.005) 450+ d=+0.064(null sd=0.014,p=0.005)
speed_fixed 0-100 n/a 100-200 d=+0.086(null sd=0.533,p=0.913) 200-300 d=+0.021(null sd=0.177,p=0.853) 300-450 d=-0.050(null sd=0.033,p=0.135) 450+ d=-0.007(null sd=0.022,p=0.758)
hit 0-100 n/a 100-200 d=+0.089(null sd=0.115,p=0.574) 200-300 d=-0.022(null sd=0.034,p=0.668) 300-450 d=+0.004(null sd=0.005,p=0.429) 450+ d=-0.013(null sd=0.003,p=0.005)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FIXED-HORIZON TEST (no arrival tick, no flight-window confound)
|perpendicular offset of DrussGT from our aim line| at k ticks after the fire (flight window),
and the same quantity in the CONTROL window at k+40 ticks, when the bullet is long gone.
A response to our shot would be ~0 at k=5 and grow with k; a phase/geometry difference is
present at k=5 and identical in the control.
band 200-300 (nLOW=130 nHIGH=780 per k)
k= 5 flight: LOW= 55.5 HIGH= 54.0 d= -1.50 | control(+40): LOW= 132.6 HIGH= 136.8 d= +4.11
k=10 flight: LOW= 60.1 HIGH= 57.4 d= -2.76 | control(+40): LOW= 141.8 HIGH= 144.8 d= +3.00
k=15 flight: LOW= 72.4 HIGH= 69.1 d= -3.28 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
k=20 flight: LOW= 83.8 HIGH= 82.5 d= -1.29 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
k=25 flight: LOW= 94.5 HIGH= 93.8 d= -0.69 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
k=30 flight: LOW= 104.2 HIGH= 105.2 d= +1.05 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
band 300-450 (nLOW=5272 nHIGH=10696 per k)
k= 5 flight: LOW= 80.1 HIGH= 82.8 d= +2.67 | control(+40): LOW= 140.1 HIGH= 141.5 d= +1.35
k=10 flight: LOW= 80.3 HIGH= 83.4 d= +3.17 | control(+40): LOW= 145.8 HIGH= 146.7 d= +0.91
k=15 flight: LOW= 87.9 HIGH= 91.4 d= +3.46 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
k=20 flight: LOW= 99.5 HIGH= 102.4 d= +2.95 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
k=25 flight: LOW= 111.0 HIGH= 113.5 d= +2.46 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
k=30 flight: LOW= 120.3 HIGH= 122.5 d= +2.20 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
band 450+ (nLOW=12960 nHIGH=20126 per k)
k= 5 flight: LOW= 94.9 HIGH= 99.1 d= +4.21 | control(+40): LOW= 144.2 HIGH= 149.7 d= +5.57
k=10 flight: LOW= 95.0 HIGH= 98.9 d= +3.86 | control(+40): LOW= 147.8 HIGH= 153.1 d= +5.23
k=15 flight: LOW= 100.7 HIGH= 104.3 d= +3.53 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
k=20 flight: LOW= 109.0 HIGH= 112.5 d= +3.50 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
k=25 flight: LOW= 118.7 HIGH= 122.6 d= +3.83 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
k=30 flight: LOW= 127.7 HIGH= 132.5 d= +4.74 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLIGHT- *AND* RANGE-MATCHED CONTRAST (kinematics and range both removed)
Within each range band we compare LOW vs HIGH power only inside the SAME cell = (integer
flight window, 50 px range sub-bin), pooling the per-cell differences with n weights. A longer
window lets DrussGT drift further off the line; at a fixed window a slower bullet implies a
shorter range and the gun's aim error grows with range. Anything left here is neither.
band obs d n used bins | null sd p_two
200-300 +19.25 480 7 | 5.28 0.005
300-450 +38.59 15455 28 | 1.17 0.005
450+ +59.05 29975 46 | 1.09 0.005
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HEADLINE WITHIN-BAND CONTRAST LOW p in [0.50,0.75) vs HIGH p in [1.00,1.50)
(HELD fixed inside each range band; 95%% CI from a ROUND-cluster bootstrap)
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
miss 0-100 6 2 | (too few for a contrast)
miss 100-200 53 23 | 43.03 47.92 +4.89 [-18.33,+31.08]
miss 200-300 130 780 | 74.31 74.72 +0.40 [-11.42,+11.93]
miss 300-450 5272 10696 | 104.67 110.55 +5.88 [+2.64,+9.07]
miss 450+ 12960 20126 | 124.01 132.26 +8.25 [+5.39,+11.25]
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
miss_per_tick 0-100 6 2 | (too few for a contrast)
miss_per_tick 100-200 53 23 | 4.45 4.05 -0.40 [-2.84,+2.26]
miss_per_tick 200-300 130 780 | 5.01 4.67 -0.34 [-1.16,+0.46]
miss_per_tick 300-450 5272 10696 | 4.85 4.88 +0.03 [-0.13,+0.17]
miss_per_tick 450+ 12960 20126 | 4.52 4.51 -0.01 [-0.12,+0.10]
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
lat_disp_abs 0-100 6 2 | (too few for a contrast)
lat_disp_abs 100-200 53 23 | 37.57 56.50 +18.93 [-3.78,+41.06]
lat_disp_abs 200-300 130 780 | 59.91 71.56 +11.64 [-0.85,+25.19]
lat_disp_abs 300-450 5272 10696 | 88.47 91.94 +3.47 [+0.78,+6.28]
lat_disp_abs 450+ 12960 20126 | 97.42 103.30 +5.88 [+3.44,+8.31]
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
lat_disp_per_tick 0-100 6 2 | (too few for a contrast)
lat_disp_per_tick 100-200 53 23 | 3.44 4.76 +1.33 [-0.48,+3.23]
lat_disp_per_tick 200-300 130 780 | 3.79 4.12 +0.33 [-0.39,+1.14]
lat_disp_per_tick 300-450 5272 10696 | 3.94 3.86 -0.08 [-0.19,+0.03]
lat_disp_per_tick 450+ 12960 20126 | 3.47 3.42 -0.04 [-0.12,+0.03]
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
lat_fixed_abs 0-100 6 2 | (too few for a contrast)
lat_fixed_abs 100-200 52 23 | 43.26 59.47 +16.21 [-4.15,+37.80]
lat_fixed_abs 200-300 130 780 | 47.20 50.09 +2.89 [-5.91,+12.89]
lat_fixed_abs 300-450 5272 10696 | 54.20 52.75 -1.45 [-2.96,+0.08]
lat_fixed_abs 450+ 12960 20126 | 55.63 55.47 -0.15 [-1.15,+0.84]
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
lat_ctrl_abs 0-100 5 2 | (too few for a contrast)
lat_ctrl_abs 100-200 41 23 | 46.92 50.59 +3.67 [-19.55,+27.70]
lat_ctrl_abs 200-300 127 780 | 43.68 49.21 +5.53 [-3.87,+15.33]
lat_ctrl_abs 300-450 5155 10695 | 52.80 51.95 -0.85 [-2.20,+0.67]
lat_ctrl_abs 450+ 12828 20120 | 52.03 52.64 +0.61 [-0.38,+1.58]
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
flight 0-100 6 2 | (too few for a contrast)
flight 100-200 53 23 | 10.42 11.87 +1.45 [-0.38,+3.14]
flight 200-300 130 780 | 15.28 16.86 +1.58 [+0.96,+2.18]
flight 300-450 5272 10696 | 22.36 23.70 +1.35 [+1.18,+1.52]
flight 450+ 12960 20126 | 28.38 30.52 +2.13 [+1.81,+2.44]
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
latency 0-100 5 2 | (too few for a contrast)
latency 100-200 29 16 | 6.34 6.44 +0.09 [-4.23,+3.45]
latency 200-300 78 566 | 9.03 7.68 -1.35 [-2.92,+0.21]
latency 300-450 2968 6860 | 11.55 11.46 -0.09 [-0.47,+0.30]
latency 450+ 8682 13884 | 13.60 14.27 +0.68 [+0.36,+0.99]
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
turn_flight 0-100 6 2 | (too few for a contrast)
turn_flight 100-200 53 23 | 2.01 2.86 +0.85 [-0.33,+2.21]
turn_flight 200-300 130 780 | 2.08 2.49 +0.40 [-0.08,+0.92]
turn_flight 300-450 5272 10696 | 1.48 1.61 +0.13 [+0.05,+0.21]
turn_flight 450+ 12960 20126 | 1.49 1.46 -0.03 [-0.09,+0.02]
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
turn_fixed 0-100 6 2 | (too few for a contrast)
turn_fixed 100-200 53 23 | 2.09 2.66 +0.57 [-0.54,+1.89]
turn_fixed 200-300 130 780 | 1.91 2.22 +0.32 [-0.15,+0.79]
turn_fixed 300-450 5272 10696 | 1.46 1.50 +0.03 [-0.04,+0.11]
turn_fixed 450+ 12960 20126 | 1.43 1.28 -0.15 [-0.20,-0.10]
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
turn_ctrl 0-100 5 2 | (too few for a contrast)
turn_ctrl 100-200 44 23 | 2.20 3.04 +0.84 [-0.35,+2.28]
turn_ctrl 200-300 127 780 | 1.78 2.19 +0.41 [-0.04,+0.88]
turn_ctrl 300-450 5211 10696 | 1.44 1.57 +0.13 [+0.05,+0.21]
turn_ctrl 450+ 12902 20126 | 1.52 1.58 +0.06 [+0.01,+0.12]
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
speed_flight 0-100 6 2 | (too few for a contrast)
speed_flight 100-200 53 23 | 6.05 6.05 +0.00 [-1.80,+1.55]
speed_flight 200-300 130 780 | 5.39 5.44 +0.05 [-0.51,+0.59]
speed_flight 300-450 5272 10696 | 5.49 5.49 +0.01 [-0.08,+0.10]
speed_flight 450+ 12960 20126 | 5.46 5.48 +0.01 [-0.06,+0.08]
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
speed_ctrl 0-100 5 2 | (too few for a contrast)
speed_ctrl 100-200 44 23 | 5.84 5.86 +0.01 [-1.55,+1.45]
speed_ctrl 200-300 127 780 | 5.63 5.48 -0.16 [-0.82,+0.43]
speed_ctrl 300-450 5211 10696 | 5.50 5.45 -0.05 [-0.14,+0.05]
speed_ctrl 450+ 12902 20126 | 5.46 5.47 +0.01 [-0.06,+0.09]
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
hit 0-100 6 2 | (too few for a contrast)
hit 100-200 53 23 | 0.30 0.39 +0.09 [-0.33,+0.44]
hit 200-300 130 780 | 0.18 0.16 -0.02 [-0.10,+0.05]
hit 300-450 5272 10696 | 0.11 0.12 +0.00 [-0.01,+0.02]
hit 450+ 12960 20126 | 0.10 0.09 -0.01 [-0.02,-0.00]
OUR fired-power histogram (exact values, top 12):
1.00:31641 0.50:14182 0.10:627 0.51:222 0.55:203 0.53:195 0.60:193 0.58:192 0.59:192 0.62:190 0.54:189 0.57:184
========================================================================================================
CORPUS powtest 35 battles 245 rounds 24280 usable shots by US (ModularBot)
attribution: owner id -> {e=DrussGT, s=us} recovered per battle from fire geometry+energy;
cross-checked on the death events: 246/246 deaths have the mapped victim at ~0 energy
(attribution is per-battle because the Tank Royale owner id is not stable across runs)
>> THE CONFOUNDER IS REAL: our fired power is a range + energy cap
band power shots firePx ourE enemyE flight
100-200 1.00-1.50 8 179.5 77.7 79.5 13.25
100-200 >=1.50 74 169.5 84.3 82.3 14.72
200-300 0.50-0.75 16 262.3 21.6 33.5 15.44
200-300 1.00-1.50 406 260.5 83.1 82.2 16.51
200-300 >=1.50 17 246.1 37.9 22.0 21.00
300-450 <0.50 51 410.0 30.7 2.7 21.00
300-450 0.50-0.75 1388 412.6 14.4 17.9 22.36
300-450 0.75-1.00 254 412.0 29.0 23.1 23.52
300-450 1.00-1.50 8151 404.0 59.6 54.1 23.78
450+ <0.50 115 533.7 18.7 1.7 26.86
450+ 0.50-0.75 2249 524.9 13.6 17.8 27.75
450+ 0.75-1.00 456 526.4 28.8 25.2 29.26
450+ 1.00-1.50 11085 525.3 52.6 46.0 29.93
(a) MISS AT ARRIVAL px - perpendicular offset of DrussGT from our aim line
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - - - 28.34 34.35
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=2 n=4
100-200 - 58.35 - 32.74 62.45
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=74
200-300 - 70.50 71.07 73.03 112.28
n=0 n=16 n=3 n=406 n=17
300-450 100.28 106.22 111.86 109.93 -
n=51 n=1388 n=254 n=8151 n=0
450+ 131.41 122.00 130.11 131.86 -
n=115 n=2249 n=456 n=11085 n=0
(a') MISS AT ARRIVAL / flight ticks (px per tick - power-neutral)
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - - - 3.15 2.89
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=2 n=4
100-200 - 7.29 - 2.51 4.57
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=74
200-300 - 4.86 4.68 4.68 5.46
n=0 n=16 n=3 n=406 n=17
300-450 4.93 4.94 4.96 4.83 -
n=51 n=1388 n=254 n=8151 n=0
450+ 5.02 4.56 4.64 4.59 -
n=115 n=2249 n=456 n=11085 n=0
(b) LATERAL DISPLACEMENT px over the flight window
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - - - 50.56 59.97
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=2 n=4
100-200 - 6.28 - 71.40 63.01
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=74
200-300 - 58.55 61.90 71.26 109.05
n=0 n=16 n=3 n=406 n=17
300-450 68.90 91.35 94.37 93.56 -
n=51 n=1388 n=254 n=8151 n=0
450+ 104.97 96.90 102.50 102.74 -
n=115 n=2249 n=456 n=11085 n=0
(b/ ) LATERAL DISPLACEMENT / flight ticks (px per tick - power-neutral)
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - - - 5.62 5.11
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=2 n=4
100-200 - 0.78 - 5.34 4.12
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=74
200-300 - 3.70 3.43 4.22 5.04
n=0 n=16 n=3 n=406 n=17
300-450 3.29 4.07 4.00 3.91 -
n=51 n=1388 n=254 n=8151 n=0
450+ 3.93 3.53 3.54 3.48 -
n=115 n=2249 n=456 n=11085 n=0
(b') LATERAL DISPLACEMENT px over a FIXED 12-tick window (power-neutral)
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - - - 72.08 63.83
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=2 n=4
100-200 - 3.66 - 63.36 49.33
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=74
200-300 - 41.73 28.58 50.71 54.65
n=0 n=16 n=3 n=406 n=17
300-450 46.10 53.99 54.21 53.41 -
n=51 n=1388 n=254 n=8151 n=0
450+ 61.58 55.53 56.08 55.85 -
n=115 n=2249 n=456 n=11085 n=0
(b'') CONTROL: lateral displacement px, SAME shot, 40 ticks later (bullet gone)
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - - - 6.62 55.92
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=1 n=3
100-200 - 20.12 - 53.96 51.68
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=69
200-300 - 51.96 42.95 50.50 46.25
n=0 n=15 n=3 n=405 n=9
300-450 39.77 53.98 53.45 52.69 -
n=43 n=1362 n=252 n=8118 n=0
450+ 57.71 52.62 51.98 53.00 -
n=95 n=2212 n=454 n=11037 n=0
(f) FLIGHT WINDOW LENGTH ticks (low power = FASTER bullet = shorter)
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - - - 9.00 11.50
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=2 n=4
100-200 - 8.00 - 13.25 14.72
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=74
200-300 - 15.44 16.67 16.51 21.00
n=0 n=16 n=3 n=406 n=17
300-450 21.00 22.36 23.52 23.78 -
n=51 n=1388 n=254 n=8151 n=0
450+ 26.86 27.75 29.26 29.93 -
n=115 n=2249 n=456 n=11085 n=0
(c) RESPONSE LATENCY ticks to a >15 deg heading turn
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - - - 5.50 4.00
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=2 n=3
100-200 - 2.00 - 9.25 7.40
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=4 n=53
200-300 - 9.29 10.50 7.58 9.21
n=0 n=7 n=2 n=303 n=14
300-450 11.86 12.03 13.06 11.75 -
n=22 n=743 n=152 n=5004 n=0
450+ 13.79 13.89 14.27 14.36 -
n=70 n=1457 n=313 n=7615 n=0
(d) MEAN TURN RATE deg/tick, flight window
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - - - 2.85 3.72
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=2 n=4
100-200 - 3.76 - 1.52 2.60
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=74
200-300 - 1.86 1.48 2.49 2.01
n=0 n=16 n=3 n=406 n=17
300-450 1.28 1.42 1.43 1.55 -
n=51 n=1388 n=254 n=8151 n=0
450+ 1.42 1.45 1.41 1.42 -
n=115 n=2249 n=456 n=11085 n=0
(d') MEAN TURN RATE deg/tick, fixed 12-tick window
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - - - 2.98 3.38
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=2 n=4
100-200 - 4.90 - 1.32 2.41
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=74
200-300 - 1.68 1.29 2.20 2.38
n=0 n=16 n=3 n=406 n=17
300-450 1.29 1.39 1.35 1.43 -
n=51 n=1388 n=254 n=8151 n=0
450+ 1.39 1.40 1.37 1.25 -
n=115 n=2249 n=456 n=11085 n=0
(d'') CONTROL: mean turn rate deg/tick, 40 ticks later
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - - - 4.12 3.24
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=1 n=3
100-200 - 4.93 - 2.58 2.32
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=70
200-300 - 1.96 2.13 2.24 3.14
n=0 n=15 n=3 n=405 n=11
300-450 1.11 1.39 1.45 1.55 -
n=47 n=1377 n=253 n=8135 n=0
450+ 1.34 1.49 1.45 1.54 -
n=105 n=2231 n=455 n=11069 n=0
(d) MEAN SPEED px/tick, flight window
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - - - 8.00 7.01
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=2 n=4
100-200 - 2.25 - 6.77 5.45
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=74
200-300 - 5.16 5.82 5.48 6.04
n=0 n=16 n=3 n=406 n=17
300-450 4.81 5.50 5.56 5.51 -
n=51 n=1388 n=254 n=8151 n=0
450+ 5.74 5.43 5.54 5.51 -
n=115 n=2249 n=456 n=11085 n=0
(d'') CONTROL: mean speed px/tick, 40 ticks later
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - - - 4.08 6.49
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=1 n=3
100-200 - 4.08 - 5.97 5.88
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=70
200-300 - 5.50 5.18 5.61 6.99
n=0 n=15 n=3 n=405 n=11
300-450 4.60 5.54 5.53 5.47 -
n=47 n=1377 n=253 n=8135 n=0
450+ 5.66 5.46 5.47 5.51 -
n=105 n=2231 n=455 n=11069 n=0
(e) fraction where |perp| GREW (moved further off the line)
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - - - 0.50 0.50
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=2 n=4
100-200 - 1.00 - 0.25 0.58
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=74
200-300 - 0.56 0.67 0.58 0.82
n=0 n=16 n=3 n=406 n=17
300-450 0.55 0.61 0.59 0.59 -
n=51 n=1388 n=254 n=8151 n=0
450+ 0.59 0.58 0.58 0.61 -
n=115 n=2249 n=456 n=11085 n=0
OUTCOME hit rate (real server events)
band <0.50 0.50-0.75 0.75-1.00 1.00-1.50 >=1.50
0-100 - - - 0.50 0.50
n=0 n=0 n=0 n=2 n=4
100-200 - 0.00 - 0.50 0.20
n=0 n=1 n=0 n=8 n=74
200-300 - 0.19 0.33 0.16 0.00
n=0 n=16 n=3 n=406 n=17
300-450 0.00 0.12 0.12 0.12 -
n=51 n=1388 n=254 n=8151 n=0
450+ 0.02 0.10 0.10 0.09 -
n=115 n=2249 n=456 n=11085 n=0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHUFFLED-LABEL NULL (labels permuted WITHIN each range band, 400 reps)
For the arrival-dependent metrics the arrival tick is RE-DERIVED from the permuted power,
so the null keeps the kinematic channel (a slower bullet really does arrive later) and destroys
only the response. p is the two-sided permutation p on delta = mean(HIGH) - mean(LOW) inside that band.
miss 0-100 n/a 100-200 n/a 200-300 d=+3.592(null sd=12.030,p=0.993) 300-450 d=+3.788(null sd=2.135,p=0.793) 450+ d=+9.865(null sd=1.815,p=0.005)
miss_per_tick 0-100 n/a 100-200 n/a 200-300 d=-0.124(null sd=0.878,p=0.948) 300-450 d=-0.100(null sd=0.107,p=0.514) 450+ d=+0.031(null sd=0.074,p=0.005)
lat_disp_abs 0-100 n/a 100-200 n/a 200-300 d=+13.420(null sd=10.885,p=0.439) 300-450 d=+2.201(null sd=1.619,p=0.200) 450+ d=+5.908(null sd=1.474,p=0.160)
flight 0-100 n/a 100-200 n/a 200-300 d=+1.200(null sd=0.588,p=0.933) 300-450 d=+1.419(null sd=0.071,p=0.005) 450+ d=+2.177(null sd=0.078,p=0.818)
lat_fixed_abs 0-100 n/a 100-200 n/a 200-300 d=+8.977(null sd=6.784,p=0.195) 300-450 d=-0.580(null sd=0.874,p=0.484) 450+ d=+0.315(null sd=0.672,p=0.603)
lat_ctrl_abs 0-100 n/a 100-200 n/a 200-300 d=-1.460(null sd=7.562,p=0.783) 300-450 d=-1.285(null sd=0.876,p=0.155) 450+ d=+0.386(null sd=0.653,p=0.519)
latency 0-100 n/a 100-200 n/a 200-300 n/a 300-450 d=-0.285(null sd=0.258,p=0.279) 450+ d=+0.473(null sd=0.236,p=0.045)
turn_fixed 0-100 n/a 100-200 n/a 200-300 d=+0.514(null sd=0.383,p=0.195) 300-450 d=+0.040(null sd=0.036,p=0.254) 450+ d=-0.157(null sd=0.027,p=0.005)
turn_ctrl 0-100 n/a 100-200 n/a 200-300 d=+0.279(null sd=0.395,p=0.494) 300-450 d=+0.156(null sd=0.040,p=0.005) 450+ d=+0.052(null sd=0.027,p=0.055)
speed_fixed 0-100 n/a 100-200 n/a 200-300 d=+0.331(null sd=0.467,p=0.504) 300-450 d=+0.029(null sd=0.055,p=0.648) 450+ d=+0.053(null sd=0.042,p=0.200)
hit 0-100 n/a 100-200 n/a 200-300 d=-0.025(null sd=0.094,p=1.000) 300-450 d=-0.002(null sd=0.009,p=0.918) 450+ d=-0.007(null sd=0.006,p=0.344)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FIXED-HORIZON TEST (no arrival tick, no flight-window confound)
|perpendicular offset of DrussGT from our aim line| at k ticks after the fire (flight window),
and the same quantity in the CONTROL window at k+40 ticks, when the bullet is long gone.
A response to our shot would be ~0 at k=5 and grow with k; a phase/geometry difference is
present at k=5 and identical in the control.
band 200-300 (nLOW=16 nHIGH=406 per k)
k= 5 flight: LOW= 54.8 HIGH= 54.5 d= -0.24 | control(+40): LOW= 123.5 HIGH= 134.1 d=+10.56
k=10 flight: LOW= 58.3 HIGH= 57.3 d= -1.02 | control(+40): LOW= 138.4 HIGH= 142.9 d= +4.52
k=15 flight: LOW= 69.1 HIGH= 69.6 d= +0.52 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
k=20 flight: LOW= 77.8 HIGH= 83.8 d= +6.03 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
k=25 flight: LOW= 84.9 HIGH= 96.8 d=+11.83 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
k=30 flight: LOW= 98.6 HIGH= 108.8 d=+10.24 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
band 300-450 (nLOW=1388 nHIGH=8151 per k)
k= 5 flight: LOW= 78.4 HIGH= 84.0 d= +5.62 | control(+40): LOW= 143.3 HIGH= 141.4 d= -1.87
k=10 flight: LOW= 79.1 HIGH= 84.0 d= +4.83 | control(+40): LOW= 149.7 HIGH= 147.2 d= -2.52
k=15 flight: LOW= 88.3 HIGH= 91.5 d= +3.15 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
k=20 flight: LOW= 101.0 HIGH= 102.3 d= +1.29 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
k=25 flight: LOW= 112.2 HIGH= 112.9 d= +0.70 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
k=30 flight: LOW= 121.1 HIGH= 121.8 d= +0.60 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
band 450+ (nLOW=2249 nHIGH=11085 per k)
k= 5 flight: LOW= 93.0 HIGH= 99.0 d= +5.97 | control(+40): LOW= 143.7 HIGH= 150.3 d= +6.59
k=10 flight: LOW= 93.3 HIGH= 99.1 d= +5.83 | control(+40): LOW= 147.7 HIGH= 153.8 d= +6.03
k=15 flight: LOW= 99.4 HIGH= 104.9 d= +5.50 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
k=20 flight: LOW= 108.1 HIGH= 113.2 d= +5.12 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
k=25 flight: LOW= 118.3 HIGH= 123.5 d= +5.13 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
k=30 flight: LOW= 126.7 HIGH= 133.3 d= +6.61 | control(+40): LOW= nan HIGH= nan d= +nan
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLIGHT- *AND* RANGE-MATCHED CONTRAST (kinematics and range both removed)
Within each range band we compare LOW vs HIGH power only inside the SAME cell = (integer
flight window, 50 px range sub-bin), pooling the per-cell differences with n weights. A longer
window lets DrussGT drift further off the line; at a fixed window a slower bullet implies a
shorter range and the gun's aim error grows with range. Anything left here is neither.
band obs d n used bins | null sd p_two
300-450 +37.84 8588 23 | 2.32 0.005
450+ +57.39 10809 34 | 2.31 0.005
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HEADLINE WITHIN-BAND CONTRAST LOW p in [0.50,0.75) vs HIGH p in [1.00,1.50)
(HELD fixed inside each range band; 95%% CI from a ROUND-cluster bootstrap)
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
miss 0-100 0 2 | (too few for a contrast)
miss 100-200 1 8 | (too few for a contrast)
miss 200-300 16 406 | 70.50 73.03 +2.53 [-12.34,+28.80]
miss 300-450 1388 8151 | 106.22 109.93 +3.72 [-1.50,+8.65]
miss 450+ 2249 11085 | 122.00 131.86 +9.86 [+4.56,+15.25]
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
miss_per_tick 0-100 0 2 | (too few for a contrast)
miss_per_tick 100-200 1 8 | (too few for a contrast)
miss_per_tick 200-300 16 406 | 4.86 4.68 -0.19 [-1.31,+1.76]
miss_per_tick 300-450 1388 8151 | 4.94 4.83 -0.10 [-0.37,+0.15]
miss_per_tick 450+ 2249 11085 | 4.56 4.59 +0.03 [-0.19,+0.25]
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
lat_disp_abs 0-100 0 2 | (too few for a contrast)
lat_disp_abs 100-200 1 8 | (too few for a contrast)
lat_disp_abs 200-300 16 406 | 58.55 71.26 +12.71 [-18.26,+36.16]
lat_disp_abs 300-450 1388 8151 | 91.35 93.56 +2.21 [-2.02,+6.72]
lat_disp_abs 450+ 2249 11085 | 96.90 102.74 +5.84 [+1.65,+9.94]
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
lat_disp_per_tick 0-100 0 2 | (too few for a contrast)
lat_disp_per_tick 100-200 1 8 | (too few for a contrast)
lat_disp_per_tick 200-300 16 406 | 3.70 4.22 +0.52 [-0.90,+1.65]
lat_disp_per_tick 300-450 1388 8151 | 4.07 3.91 -0.16 [-0.32,+0.02]
lat_disp_per_tick 450+ 2249 11085 | 3.53 3.48 -0.05 [-0.20,+0.11]
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
lat_fixed_abs 0-100 0 2 | (too few for a contrast)
lat_fixed_abs 100-200 1 8 | (too few for a contrast)
lat_fixed_abs 200-300 16 406 | 41.73 50.71 +8.98 [-11.36,+23.25]
lat_fixed_abs 300-450 1388 8151 | 53.99 53.41 -0.58 [-3.07,+1.89]
lat_fixed_abs 450+ 2249 11085 | 55.53 55.85 +0.31 [-1.24,+1.87]
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
lat_ctrl_abs 0-100 0 1 | (too few for a contrast)
lat_ctrl_abs 100-200 1 8 | (too few for a contrast)
lat_ctrl_abs 200-300 15 405 | 51.96 50.50 -1.46 [-21.67,+14.83]
lat_ctrl_abs 300-450 1362 8118 | 53.98 52.69 -1.29 [-3.11,+0.47]
lat_ctrl_abs 450+ 2212 11037 | 52.62 53.00 +0.39 [-0.83,+1.57]
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
flight 0-100 0 2 | (too few for a contrast)
flight 100-200 1 8 | (too few for a contrast)
flight 200-300 16 406 | 15.44 16.51 +1.07 [-0.61,+2.99]
flight 300-450 1388 8151 | 22.36 23.78 +1.42 [+1.15,+1.68]
flight 450+ 2249 11085 | 27.75 29.93 +2.18 [+1.63,+2.73]
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
latency 0-100 0 2 | (too few for a contrast)
latency 100-200 1 4 | (too few for a contrast)
latency 200-300 7 303 | (too few for a contrast)
latency 300-450 743 5004 | 12.03 11.75 -0.29 [-0.81,+0.25]
latency 450+ 1457 7615 | 13.89 14.36 +0.47 [-0.15,+1.14]
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
turn_flight 0-100 0 2 | (too few for a contrast)
turn_flight 100-200 1 8 | (too few for a contrast)
turn_flight 200-300 16 406 | 1.86 2.49 +0.62 [+0.33,+1.09]
turn_flight 300-450 1388 8151 | 1.42 1.55 +0.13 [+0.04,+0.23]
turn_flight 450+ 2249 11085 | 1.45 1.42 -0.03 [-0.13,+0.06]
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
turn_fixed 0-100 0 2 | (too few for a contrast)
turn_fixed 100-200 1 8 | (too few for a contrast)
turn_fixed 200-300 16 406 | 1.68 2.20 +0.51 [+0.11,+1.18]
turn_fixed 300-450 1388 8151 | 1.39 1.43 +0.04 [-0.06,+0.15]
turn_fixed 450+ 2249 11085 | 1.40 1.25 -0.16 [-0.26,-0.06]
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
turn_ctrl 0-100 0 1 | (too few for a contrast)
turn_ctrl 100-200 1 8 | (too few for a contrast)
turn_ctrl 200-300 15 405 | 1.96 2.24 +0.28 [-0.78,+0.97]
turn_ctrl 300-450 1377 8135 | 1.39 1.55 +0.16 [+0.04,+0.28]
turn_ctrl 450+ 2231 11069 | 1.49 1.54 +0.05 [-0.06,+0.15]
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
speed_flight 0-100 0 2 | (too few for a contrast)
speed_flight 100-200 1 8 | (too few for a contrast)
speed_flight 200-300 16 406 | 5.16 5.48 +0.31 [-0.96,+1.28]
speed_flight 300-450 1388 8151 | 5.50 5.51 +0.01 [-0.13,+0.14]
speed_flight 450+ 2249 11085 | 5.43 5.51 +0.08 [-0.02,+0.19]
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
speed_ctrl 0-100 0 1 | (too few for a contrast)
speed_ctrl 100-200 1 8 | (too few for a contrast)
speed_ctrl 200-300 15 405 | 5.50 5.61 +0.11 [-0.78,+1.18]
speed_ctrl 300-450 1377 8135 | 5.54 5.47 -0.07 [-0.20,+0.07]
speed_ctrl 450+ 2231 11069 | 5.46 5.51 +0.05 [-0.06,+0.15]
metric band nLOW nHIGH | LOW HIGH delta 95% CI
hit 0-100 0 2 | (too few for a contrast)
hit 100-200 1 8 | (too few for a contrast)
hit 200-300 16 406 | 0.19 0.16 -0.02 [-0.17,+0.20]
hit 300-450 1388 8151 | 0.12 0.12 -0.00 [-0.03,+0.02]
hit 450+ 2249 11085 | 0.10 0.09 -0.01 [-0.02,+0.01]
OUR fired-power histogram (exact values, top 12):
1.00:19653 0.50:2760 2.00:64 0.62:61 0.90:56 0.52:56 0.10:56 0.57:54 0.59:53 0.67:49 0.65:47 0.64:44
common_libs/tests/fixtures/dodge_vs_power_results.json
Vendored
+6067
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