gun j123 Batch 1 outcome + Batch 2 prereg: len6 is the only arm to beat pattern on wins (15 opp), but all 5 arms are wins-positive incl. the bearing-invariant rad_offset; pre-register the 33-opponent confirmation with a structural control

2026-09-26 04:22:49 +02:00
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+# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+# arms_gun_b4.txt — PHASE 2 BATCH 2 of the GUN campaign: higher-power
+# confirmation of the Batch-1 `len6` wins signal, on the wider 33-opponent
+# panel, with the bearing-invariant `rad_offset` as a structural control.
+#
+# Format:  name | ENV=value ENV=value | label
+#
+# ONE frozen binary (tournament_run.sh builds it from `git archive HEAD`); every
+# arm below differs ONLY by its env dict. No per-arm rebuild.
+#
+# MOVEMENT IS PINNED IN EVERY ARM (`TR_MOVEMENT=strafe`) — same rationale as
+# Batch 1 (movement-default / concurrent-job hygiene + analyzer liveness rule).
+#
+# Why `rad_offset` is here: job j99 proved exactly that the radial correction
+# changes only the aim DISTANCE and leaves the BEARING untouched, so it cannot
+# move the real shot direction; its live effect was a tie (+0.28 pp, p=0.62). In
+# Batch 1 it nonetheless showed +0.42 wins/run (sign test p=0.065) — and so did
+# ALL five arms, including this structural no-op. If it repeats the nominal wins
+# gain on 33 opponents, the Batch-1 wins signal is a session-level reference
+# anomaly rather than a gun effect.
+# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+# 1. REFERENCE. The shipped `onlyPattern` rack, movement pinned, no shape env.
+pattern | TR_MOVEMENT=strafe | shipped onlyPattern rack (REFERENCE)
+
+# 2. The Batch-1 candidate: 6-tick match key (+0.49 wins/run on 15 opponents).
+len6 | TR_MOVEMENT=strafe TR_PATTERN_LEN=6 | match key = 6 ticks (Batch-1 candidate)
+
+# 3. Dose-response on the key-length axis.
+len16 | TR_MOVEMENT=strafe TR_PATTERN_LEN=16 | match key = 16 ticks
+
+# 4. STRUCTURAL POSITIVE CONTROL: bearing-invariant radial knob; cannot change
+#    the real aim direction (job j99), so a hits/wins gain here is an artifact.
+rad_offset | TR_MOVEMENT=strafe TR_PATTERN_RAD_OFFSET=-20 | structural control: aim short 20 px