j146 TFIL: the bullet's own heat becomes tunable (TR_TFIL_BULLET_CORE/AURA, default 10/5 = today) and the field-shape A/B is pre-registered

2026-09-26 22:16:06 +02:00
parent 5dd921c26b
commit 298ea6d586
5 changed files with 164 additions and 3 deletions
@@ -3218,3 +3218,96 @@ nothing.
 **The shipped default is untouched.** `TR_MOVEMENT=strafe` remains the default
 (`ModularBot_garage/src/ModularBot.nim:129`); both new knobs default to
 off-effect, so `TR_MOVEMENT=tfil` still means today's tfil, byte-for-byte.
+
+---
+
+# Batch 7 — TFIL field shape (j146)
+
+*Pre-registered BEFORE any battle of this batch was launched. No battle of this
+batch existed when this section was written; the frozen binary for it is the
+commit that adds the two bullet-heat knobs.*
+
+## The cause this batch fixes
+
+Two consecutive tfil fixes (j144 `d2005ab` arrival + no-rev, j145 `39c90fd`
+turn-bias) improved the MECHANISM and the live outcome stayed an under-powered
+null. j145's offline gate then found the UPSTREAM cause, on the same fixture:
+
+1. **58.8% of tfil's picks have no safe set to tie-break in** — fewer than two
+   reachable tiles under `PathDangerThreshold = 10`.
+2. `TR_TFIL_CORRIDOR_HEAT = 20` is **twice** that threshold, so ONE far bullet's
+   corridor marks a wide swath unsafe by itself; j145 measured `filter broken` on
+   **59%** of picks.
+3. In tfil **the bullet's own heat is inert**: `BulletCore = 10.0` /
+   `BulletAura = 5.0` were Nim `const`s, and 10 is exactly the threshold, so a
+   bullet is never dangerous on its own and the corridor carries all the weight.
+
+The SHAPE was already measured — but on **strafe**, in j119 batch 4, where the
+engine and the field differ. `field_strong` (corridor 20, wall 30/10, i.e. exactly
+what tfil ships) was **-0.29 wins/run, p=0.039**; `field_off` was **-0.47
+wins/run, p=0.0063**; the reference strafe shape — bullet core 20 / aura 10,
+corridor 10, wall 15 / radiance 5 — was the champion. **Both extremes lose and
+the middle wins, and tfil has never been run on the middle shape.**
+
+## The treatment (Task A)
+
+`BulletCore` / `BulletAura` in `the_floor_is_lava.nim` go from `const` to
+env-overridable `var`s, the exact pattern j119/j134 already used for
+`CorridorHeat` / `WallHotness` / `WallRadiance`:
+
+| knob | default | meaning |
+|---|---|---|
+| `TR_TFIL_BULLET_CORE` | `10.0` (= today's `const`) | lava per bullet-overlapping tile |
+| `TR_TFIL_BULLET_AURA` | `5.0` (= today's `const`) | lava for the bullet's aura ring |
+
+**Default-off-effect**: the defaults are today's `const`s, so the default path is
+byte-for-byte unchanged and the golden in `test_tfil_commit_env.nim` is not
+regenerated.
+
+## Arms (frozen, all `TR_MOVEMENT=tfil`, j144 ON in every arm)
+
+j144's recommended `.env` (`TR_TFIL_COMMIT_ARRIVAL=1 TR_TFIL_NOREV_SPEED=4`) is
+ON in **every** arm, so the shape is isolated **on top of the current best tfil**.
+The virtual pillar is OFF (shipped 0/0) in every arm. Columns are
+corridor / wall hotness / wall radiance / bullet core / bullet aura.
+
+| # | arm | shape | what it isolates |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| 1 | `shape_shipped` | 20/30/10/10/5 | **the reference** — today's field, on j144 |
+| 2 | `shape_middle` | 10/15/5/20/10 | the shape strafe won on |
+| 3 | `shape_corr10` | 10/30/10/10/5 | "corridor alone was the problem" |
+| 4 | `shape_bullets` | 20/30/10/20/10 | "bullets made dangerous themselves" |
+| 5 | `shape_nofield` | 0/0/0/20/10 | the "field off" control strafe measured as WORSE |
+
+`shape_nofield` is here so a `shape_middle` win cannot be a FALSE WINNER: it
+separates "the middle shape is right" from "any less lava is right". Note that
+`TR_TFIL_WALL_HOTNESS=0` is what zeroes the wall (radiance 0 would paint a FLAT
+field over the whole arena — the opposite of "no walls"). The enemy body/aura
+heat (`EnemyCore 40` / `EnemyAura 10`) is a `const` with no knob and is present in
+every arm; "field off" therefore means no **corridor/wall** field.
+
+Panel: the FROZEN 15-opponent `tools/ab/panel_movement.txt`. Harness:
+`tools/ab/tournament_run.sh` + `tournament_analyze.py`. Arms file
+`tools/ab/arms_tfil_shape.txt`.
+
+## Pre-registered prediction and decision rule
+
+* **Prediction.** `shape_middle` > `shape_shipped` on damage/run and round wins
+  (it is the shape strafe measured as best, and it is the only arm that both
+  halves the corridor AND makes the bullet itself dangerous, which is what
+  should restore a real safe set). `shape_corr10` and `shape_bullets` should
+  each move part of the way. `shape_nofield` should be the WEAKEST arm, matching
+  strafe's `field_off` — if `shape_nofield` ties `shape_middle` on the primary
+  metrics, the win is "less lava", not "this shape", and that is recorded as a
+  wrong prediction.
+* **Mechanism, not verdict.** The **offline `filter broken` rate and the mean
+  safe-candidate count** are the mechanism. The **incoming hit rate** is the
+  live mechanism. The **verdict is damage/run and round wins** under the
+  campaign's pre-registered rule 2: the cross-opponent sign test p < 0.05 on one
+  primary metric with the other not down, with SD/SE/95% CI/MDE reported.
+* **If nothing separates**, the verdict is *not distinguishable* and the shape is
+  **not changed**. The pre-registered bar is not re-interpreted afterwards.
+* **A null does NOT retract j144's mechanism result** and does not change the
+  shipped `TR_MOVEMENT=strafe` default.
+
+*(results appended below after the battles)*