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Gun mixing (TMHorizon+BitBrain) vs DrussGT: clean negative, no dodge disruption

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4 arms x 7 runs vs real DrussGT. mix alternates the two guns 476 times/7 runs
(liveness OK) but our bullets are no more varied (power sd / aim-offset sd flat)
and DrussGT's dodge quality is unchanged (miss/tick mix-pat +0.03, p=0.66; MDE
3.8%). mix wins 24/49 = the 49% baseline; the user's 6/10 has P=0.353 at 49%.
New tools/ab/ab_dodge_analyze.py splits the validated per-shot dodge instrument
by arm and adds gun-switch/power/bearing liveness; fixtures committed.
This commit is contained in:
Davide Cappellini
2026-09-24 23:05:12 +02:00
parent d93ce444c0
commit 32a5e72fac
5 changed files with 1272 additions and 0 deletions
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common_libs/tests/fixtures/gun_mix_ab_report.txt
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# session /tmp/ab/mix
# commit=f91e12196537c6c1e64353160e8885445e3e222b binary_sha256=54abc793b819832bf1becb366b3928f7db5c853668d18a525d63e677b7f89a73 rounds=7 runs=7 conc=5 ts=2026-09-24T22:54:59+02:00
ARM SUMMARY
arm runs dmg/run dmgtk/run wins win% shots/run hitstk/run
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
pat 7 291 213 21/49 42.9 815 95.7
tmh 7 265 211 18/49 36.7 788 94.9
bb 7 278 183 22/49 44.9 802 92.3
mix 7 267 210 24/49 49.0 804 93.6
PER-RUN (never just the mean)
pat dmg: r1=319 r2=313 r3=270 r4=318 r5=281 r6=290 r7=250
wins: r1=5/7 r2=3/7 r3=3/7 r4=4/7 r5=3/7 r6=1/7 r7=2/7
tmh dmg: r1=237 r2=309 r3=249 r4=230 r5=288 r6=268 r7=274
wins: r1=1/7 r2=4/7 r3=2/7 r4=2/7 r5=3/7 r6=2/7 r7=4/7
bb dmg: r1=230 r2=271 r3=270 r4=282 r5=289 r6=307 r7=297
wins: r1=2/7 r2=3/7 r3=4/7 r4=3/7 r5=3/7 r6=4/7 r7=3/7
mix dmg: r1=260 r2=255 r3=220 r4=293 r5=284 r6=266 r7=288
wins: r1=2/7 r2=5/7 r3=2/7 r4=3/7 r5=3/7 r6=4/7 r7=5/7
PAIRWISE PERMUTATION TEST (per-run values) + MANN-WHITNEY CROSS-CHECK
permutation: exact when C(n,na) <= 20,000,000; otherwise Monte-Carlo 1,000,000 draws, seed=0x5eed5eed, p = (cnt+1)/(B+1), se = sqrt(p(1-p)/(B+1))
metric A B diff(A-B) perm p method MC se MW p MW U
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
dmg/run pat tmh +26.284 0.0956 exact - 0.0736 10.0
round wins pat tmh +0.429 0.6638 exact - 0.5542 19.5
dmg/run pat bb +13.488 0.3450 exact - 0.4433 18.0
round wins pat bb -0.143 1.0000 exact - 0.8368 22.5
dmg/run pat mix +24.919 0.0973 exact - 0.1599 13.0
round wins pat mix -0.429 0.6795 exact - 0.6439 20.5
dmg/run tmh bb -12.796 0.3811 exact - 0.4433 18.0
round wins tmh bb -0.571 0.4079 exact - 0.3157 16.5
dmg/run tmh mix -1.365 0.9237 exact - 1.0000 24.0
round wins tmh mix -0.857 0.2879 exact - 0.2346 15.0
dmg/run bb mix +11.431 0.4103 exact - 0.3067 16.0
round wins bb mix -0.286 0.7960 exact - 0.7880 22.0
MINIMUM DETECTABLE EFFECT (two-sample, alpha=0.05 two-sided, 80% power; MDE = 2.8016*sd*sqrt(2/n))
metric n/arm sd(control) MDE(abs) MDE vs control mean
----------------------------------------------------------------
dmg/run 7 26.481 39.656 13.6% of 291.4
round wins 7 1.291 1.933 64.4% of 3.0
ROUND-LEVEL TEST (pooled rounds, Fisher exact) vs `pat` — ANTI-CONSERVATIVE: rounds cluster within runs
arm ref wins arm wins p
----------------------------------------------
tmh 21/49 18/49 0.6801
bb 21/49 22/49 1.0000
mix 21/49 24/49 0.6854
LIVENESS (arm env applied in the bot's own boot report)
pat OK (7/7 runs: no arm env; report present)
tmh OK (7/7 runs: TR_RACK_PATTERN=off TR_RACK_TMHORIZON=both applied)
bb OK (7/7 runs: TR_RACK_PATTERN=off TR_RACK_BITBRAIN=both TR_BITBRAIN_MEM=decay applied)
mix OK (7/7 runs: TR_RACK_PATTERN=off TR_RACK_TMHORIZON=both TR_RACK_BITBRAIN=both TR_BITBRAIN_MEM=decay applied)
[bb] APPLIED-SHIFT CHECK (from bot stdout; needs TR_BITBRAIN_LOG=1). A provably-zero placebo emits ZERO [bb] lines.
arm runs w/log lines min max zeros
pat 0/7 0 - - -
tmh 0/7 0 - - -
bb 0/7 0 - - -
mix 0/7 0 - - -
ROUND-WIN ATTRIBUTION (events primary; score tie-break for mutual-kill / timeout rounds)
pat wins==firstPlaces 7/7 runs OK; single-death rounds agree with score 48/48 (1 tie-broken)
tmh wins==firstPlaces 7/7 runs OK; single-death rounds agree with score 47/47 (2 tie-broken)
bb wins==firstPlaces 7/7 runs OK; single-death rounds agree with score 49/49 (0 tie-broken)
mix wins==firstPlaces 7/7 runs OK; single-death rounds agree with score 49/49 (0 tie-broken)
common_libs/tests/fixtures/gun_mix_dodge_report.txt
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====================================================================================================
PER-ARM DRUSSTGT DODGE QUALITY (session commit f91e12196, 7 runs x 7 rounds)
attribution cross-check: 199/199 deaths have the mapped victim at ~0 energy
shipped baseline vs DrussGT is ~49%% round wins; this instrument is per SHOT (~thousands/arm), not per round.
--- ARM `pat` --- 7 runs, 49 rounds, 5586 shots
OUR shooting: power mean=0.810 sd=0.262 iqr=0.500 distinct=601 | aim-offset sd=14.16 deg iqr=22.55 | fire range mean=470 px
power histogram (top): 1.00:3163 0.50:1470 0.10:116 0.65:28 0.68:27 0.55:27 0.60:25 0.71:24 0.97:23 0.51:22
aim-offset histogram (deg bucket): -30:3 -25:319 -20:440 -15:558 -10:620 -5:657 +0:671 +5:605 +10:467 +15:462 +20:470 +25:312 +30:1 +45:1
GUN SELECTION ([config] switch lines): Pattern:54 | switches=0 over 7/7 runs
--- ARM `tmh` --- 7 runs, 49 rounds, 5417 shots
OUR shooting: power mean=0.828 sd=0.253 iqr=0.500 distinct=594 | aim-offset sd=14.32 deg iqr=23.13 | fire range mean=480 px
power histogram (top): 1.00:3161 0.50:1434 0.82:25 0.78:22 0.54:22 0.57:22 0.63:21 0.81:20 0.52:20 0.74:20
aim-offset histogram (deg bucket): -35:2 -30:49 -25:291 -20:485 -15:517 -10:559 -5:625 +0:640 +5:561 +10:519 +15:442 +20:483 +25:215 +30:29
GUN SELECTION ([config] switch lines): TMHorizon:54 | switches=0 over 7/7 runs
--- ARM `bb` --- 7 runs, 49 rounds, 5483 shots
OUR shooting: power mean=0.829 sd=0.248 iqr=0.500 distinct=647 | aim-offset sd=14.33 deg iqr=22.82 | fire range mean=473 px
power histogram (top): 1.00:3212 0.50:1416 0.90:25 0.62:24 0.71:23 0.86:22 0.56:22 0.52:22 2.00:22 0.60:22
aim-offset histogram (deg bucket): -60:1 -45:1 -35:3 -30:6 -25:345 -20:443 -15:529 -10:607 -5:610 +0:662 +5:577 +10:486 +15:442 +20:482 +25:282 +30:5 +40:1 +50:1
GUN SELECTION ([config] switch lines): BitBrain:55 | switches=0 over 7/7 runs
--- ARM `mix` --- 7 runs, 49 rounds, 5518 shots
OUR shooting: power mean=0.811 sd=0.264 iqr=0.500 distinct=651 | aim-offset sd=14.30 deg iqr=23.20 | fire range mean=469 px
power histogram (top): 1.00:3074 0.50:1486 0.10:61 0.59:26 0.73:24 0.52:24 0.70:23 0.77:23 0.72:22 0.57:22
aim-offset histogram (deg bucket): -30:38 -25:255 -20:478 -15:524 -10:594 -5:609 +0:642 +5:581 +10:521 +15:478 +20:521 +25:248 +30:29
GUN SELECTION ([config] switch lines): TMHorizon:275 BitBrain:258 | switches=476 over 7/7 runs
====================================================================================================
DRUSSGT DODGE QUALITY PER ARM (mean, 95%% CI = run-cluster bootstrap)
arm shots | miss miss/tick [95%CI] | lat12 lat12 [95%CI] | lat_ctrl lat_ctrl [95%CI] | hit%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
pat 5586 | 117.0 4.64[ 4.56, 4.72] | 53.9 [ 52.5, 55.1] | 51.4 [ 50.4, 52.3] | 0.107
tmh 5417 | 121.6 4.74[ 4.68, 4.80] | 54.6 [ 53.4, 55.5] | 52.7 [ 52.1, 53.3] | 0.099
bb 5483 | 118.6 4.66[ 4.59, 4.72] | 54.0 [ 53.4, 54.7] | 52.1 [ 51.3, 52.8] | 0.099
mix 5518 | 117.9 4.67[ 4.58, 4.76] | 54.4 [ 53.8, 55.0] | 52.6 [ 52.1, 53.1] | 0.101
====================================================================================================
MINIMUM DETECTABLE EFFECT (run-cluster level, n=7/arm, alpha=0.05 two-sided, 80% power; MDE = 2.8016*sd_perrun*sqrt(2/n))
the shot counts are large but the RUNS are what set the between-arm uncertainty, so this is the honest floor
metric sd(per-run) MDE(abs) MDE vs ref mean
miss 2.437 3.650 3.1% of 117.029
miss/tick 0.118 0.176 3.8% of 4.642
lat12 1.824 2.732 5.1% of 53.898
lat_ctrl 1.372 2.055 4.0% of 51.361
hit% 0.006 0.008 0.1% of 10.705
====================================================================================================
BETWEEN-ARM CONTRASTS (exact run-cluster permutation, C(14,7)=3432)
pooled = pooled-shot difference A-B; strat = range-stratified (bands 200-300,300-450,450+, n-weighted)
a mix that poisons DrussGT should show miss/tick, lat12 and lat_ctrl LOWER (worse dodging) than the best single gun
metric A vs B pooled perm p | strat perm p
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
miss mix - tmh -3.691 0.0789 | -2.108 0.1809 [exact]
miss_per_tick mix - tmh -0.065 0.2805 | -0.080 0.1815 [exact]
lat_fixed_abs mix - tmh -0.190 0.7862 | -0.054 0.9289 [exact]
lat_ctrl_abs mix - tmh -0.101 0.7984 | -0.070 0.8584 [exact]
hit mix - tmh +0.001 0.7040 | +0.000 0.9441 [exact]
miss mix - bb -0.683 0.7408 | +0.048 0.9790 [exact]
miss_per_tick mix - bb +0.014 0.8048 | +0.003 0.9522 [exact]
lat_fixed_abs mix - bb +0.368 0.4838 | +0.443 0.3865 [exact]
lat_ctrl_abs mix - bb +0.537 0.2799 | +0.546 0.2869 [exact]
hit mix - bb +0.001 0.7291 | +0.001 0.7932 [exact]
miss tmh - pat +4.584 0.0114 | +3.625 0.0189 [exact]
miss_per_tick tmh - pat +0.095 0.1081 | +0.105 0.0673 [exact]
lat_fixed_abs tmh - pat +0.686 0.4699 | +0.631 0.4926 [exact]
lat_ctrl_abs tmh - pat +1.340 0.0498 | +1.356 0.0457 [exact]
hit tmh - pat -0.008 0.0160 | -0.006 0.0685 [exact]
miss bb - pat +1.575 0.3632 | +1.375 0.3283 [exact]
miss_per_tick bb - pat +0.016 0.7850 | +0.019 0.7373 [exact]
lat_fixed_abs bb - pat +0.127 0.8858 | +0.121 0.8905 [exact]
lat_ctrl_abs bb - pat +0.702 0.3067 | +0.738 0.2893 [exact]
hit bb - pat -0.008 0.0277 | -0.008 0.0283 [exact]
miss mix - pat +0.893 0.6242 | +1.340 0.3318 [exact]
miss_per_tick mix - pat +0.030 0.6644 | +0.020 0.7489 [exact]
lat_fixed_abs mix - pat +0.495 0.5817 | +0.562 0.5322 [exact]
lat_ctrl_abs mix - pat +1.239 0.0562 | +1.274 0.0481 [exact]
hit mix - pat -0.006 0.1296 | -0.007 0.1151 [exact]
JSON written to /tmp/ab/mix_dodge.json
common_libs/tests/fixtures/gun_mix_dodge_results.json
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{
"arms": {
"bb": {
"ci": {
"lat_ctrl_abs": [
51.342068468176116,
52.805805223688346
],
"lat_fixed_abs": [
53.391673798672606,
54.727408738794885
],
"miss_per_tick": [
4.593774088337814,
4.716995057710113
]
},
"dodge": {
"hit": 0.09921575779682655,
"lat_ctrl_abs": 52.06310968098528,
"lat_disp_per_tick": 3.595491225896298,
"lat_fixed_abs": 54.02567072842506,
"miss": 118.60437036023144,
"miss_per_tick": 4.657664761142575
},
"guns": {
"counts": {
"BitBrain": 55
},
"runs_with": 7,
"switches": 0
},
"rounds": 49,
"runs": 7,
"shots": 5483,
"variation": {
"aimoff_hist": {
"-60": 1,
"-45": 1,
"-35": 3,
"-30": 6,
"-25": 345,
"-20": 443,
"-15": 529,
"-10": 607,
"-5": 610,
"0": 662,
"5": 577,
"10": 486,
"15": 442,
"20": 482,
"25": 282,
"30": 5,
"40": 1,
"50": 1
},
"aimoff_iqr": 22.82389184815574,
"aimoff_mean": -0.6759743337347359,
"aimoff_sd": 14.329539671665751,
"power_distinct": 647,
"power_hist": {
"0.5": 1416,
"0.52": 22,
"0.56": 22,
"0.6": 22,
"0.62": 24,
"0.71": 23,
"0.86": 22,
"0.9": 25,
"1.0": 3212,
"2.0": 22
},
"power_iqr": 0.5,
"power_mean": 0.8289494984497539,
"power_sd": 0.2477421650874806,
"range_mean": 473.40395357200674
}
},
"mix": {
"ci": {
"lat_ctrl_abs": [
52.149269165916934,
53.05168240489434
],
"lat_fixed_abs": [
53.751035608179855,
55.02334273976535
],
"miss_per_tick": [
4.58467855277936,
4.756884860165204
]
},
"dodge": {
"hit": 0.10057992026096411,
"lat_ctrl_abs": 52.600241347777825,
"lat_disp_per_tick": 3.7068191081033643,
"lat_fixed_abs": 54.393824082815996,
"miss": 117.92160657194027,
"miss_per_tick": 4.671767229918404
},
"guns": {
"counts": {
"BitBrain": 258,
"TMHorizon": 275
},
"runs_with": 7,
"switches": 476
},
"rounds": 49,
"runs": 7,
"shots": 5518,
"variation": {
"aimoff_hist": {
"-30": 38,
"-25": 255,
"-20": 478,
"-15": 524,
"-10": 594,
"-5": 609,
"0": 642,
"5": 581,
"10": 521,
"15": 478,
"20": 521,
"25": 248,
"30": 29
},
"aimoff_iqr": 23.19629241229177,
"aimoff_mean": -0.19128061717982736,
"aimoff_sd": 14.302914943275754,
"power_distinct": 651,
"power_hist": {
"0.1": 61,
"0.5": 1486,
"0.52": 24,
"0.57": 22,
"0.59": 26,
"0.7": 23,
"0.72": 22,
"0.73": 24,
"0.77": 23,
"1.0": 3074
},
"power_iqr": 0.5,
"power_mean": 0.8109788329104748,
"power_sd": 0.2636852717444021,
"range_mean": 469.1328637380008
}
},
"pat": {
"ci": {
"lat_ctrl_abs": [
50.37731936384525,
52.32848907082813
],
"lat_fixed_abs": [
52.45312790721141,
55.0568598598361
],
"miss_per_tick": [
4.555371361130827,
4.715270176768353
]
},
"dodge": {
"hit": 0.10705334765485142,
"lat_ctrl_abs": 51.36125322431849,
"lat_disp_per_tick": 3.5758709102416977,
"lat_fixed_abs": 53.89836250020473,
"miss": 117.0289207480357,
"miss_per_tick": 4.641754269524353
},
"guns": {
"counts": {
"Pattern": 54
},
"runs_with": 7,
"switches": 0
},
"rounds": 49,
"runs": 7,
"shots": 5586,
"variation": {
"aimoff_hist": {
"-30": 3,
"-25": 319,
"-20": 440,
"-15": 558,
"-10": 620,
"-5": 657,
"0": 671,
"5": 605,
"10": 467,
"15": 462,
"20": 470,
"25": 312,
"30": 1,
"45": 1
},
"aimoff_iqr": 22.547808248755246,
"aimoff_mean": -0.5000302815020886,
"aimoff_sd": 14.161575308720636,
"power_distinct": 601,
"power_hist": {
"0.1": 116,
"0.5": 1470,
"0.51": 22,
"0.55": 27,
"0.6": 25,
"0.65": 28,
"0.68": 27,
"0.71": 24,
"0.97": 23,
"1.0": 3163
},
"power_iqr": 0.5,
"power_mean": 0.8101581095596133,
"power_sd": 0.26204101790031575,
"range_mean": 469.974151732332
}
},
"tmh": {
"ci": {
"lat_ctrl_abs": [
52.10724351808622,
53.26490501694674
],
"lat_fixed_abs": [
53.429352471589546,
55.53570708426935
],
"miss_per_tick": [
4.677616757831026,
4.7978133827120795
]
},
"dodge": {
"hit": 0.09913236108547166,
"lat_ctrl_abs": 52.70125777256337,
"lat_disp_per_tick": 3.632106164750479,
"lat_fixed_abs": 54.584278804670376,
"miss": 121.61307223099864,
"miss_per_tick": 4.736555181980398
},
"guns": {
"counts": {
"TMHorizon": 54
},
"runs_with": 7,
"switches": 0
},
"rounds": 49,
"runs": 7,
"shots": 5417,
"variation": {
"aimoff_hist": {
"-35": 2,
"-30": 49,
"-25": 291,
"-20": 485,
"-15": 517,
"-10": 559,
"-5": 625,
"0": 640,
"5": 561,
"10": 519,
"15": 442,
"20": 483,
"25": 215,
"30": 29
},
"aimoff_iqr": 23.130255387415104,
"aimoff_mean": -0.8124060010024183,
"aimoff_sd": 14.316286775899426,
"power_distinct": 594,
"power_hist": {
"0.5": 1434,
"0.52": 20,
"0.54": 22,
"0.57": 22,
"0.63": 21,
"0.74": 20,
"0.78": 22,
"0.81": 20,
"0.82": 25,
"1.0": 3161
},
"power_iqr": 0.5,
"power_mean": 0.8281302012183867,
"power_sd": 0.25254388017875856,
"range_mean": 479.94567493925
}
}
},
"commit": "f91e12196537c6c1e64353160e8885445e3e222b",
"contrasts": {
"bb-pat": {
"hit": {
"method": "exact",
"perm_p": 0.02767258957180309,
"pooled": -0.007837589858024865,
"strat": -0.007832565743913025,
"strat_perm_p": 0.02825517040489368
},
"lat_ctrl_abs": {
"method": "exact",
"perm_p": 0.3067288086221963,
"pooled": 0.7018564566667891,
"strat": 0.7377803893237963,
"strat_perm_p": 0.2892513836294786
},
"lat_fixed_abs": {
"method": "exact",
"perm_p": 0.8858141567142441,
"pooled": 0.12730822822030063,
"strat": 0.12122394700330835,
"strat_perm_p": 0.8904748033789688
},
"miss": {
"method": "exact",
"perm_p": 0.3632391494319837,
"pooled": 1.5754496121956834,
"strat": 1.3754074032538215,
"strat_perm_p": 0.3282842994465482
},
"miss_per_tick": {
"method": "exact",
"perm_p": 0.7850276725895718,
"pooled": 0.015910491618221556,
"strat": 0.019163315366865954,
"strat_perm_p": 0.7372560442761433
}
},
"mix-bb": {
"hit": {
"method": "exact",
"perm_p": 0.729099912612875,
"pooled": 0.0013641624641375638,
"strat": 0.0009968895263179599,
"strat_perm_p": 0.7931838042528401
},
"lat_ctrl_abs": {
"method": "exact",
"perm_p": 0.27993009030002913,
"pooled": 0.5371316667925683,
"strat": 0.5458010552403781,
"strat_perm_p": 0.2869210602971162
},
"lat_fixed_abs": {
"method": "exact",
"perm_p": 0.4838333818817361,
"pooled": 0.36815335439101204,
"strat": 0.4433817857043871,
"strat_perm_p": 0.3865423827556073
},
"miss": {
"method": "exact",
"perm_p": 0.7407515292746869,
"pooled": -0.682763788291112,
"strat": 0.048289040397066954,
"strat_perm_p": 0.9790270900087387
},
"miss_per_tick": {
"method": "exact",
"perm_p": 0.8048354209146519,
"pooled": 0.014102468775829102,
"strat": 0.003432018973777013,
"strat_perm_p": 0.9522283716865715
}
},
"mix-pat": {
"hit": {
"method": "exact",
"perm_p": 0.12962423536265658,
"pooled": -0.006473427393887302,
"strat": -0.006845548923353688,
"strat_perm_p": 0.11505971453539178
},
"lat_ctrl_abs": {
"method": "exact",
"perm_p": 0.056219050393242063,
"pooled": 1.2389881234593574,
"strat": 1.2737305776097125,
"strat_perm_p": 0.048062918729973786
},
"lat_fixed_abs": {
"method": "exact",
"perm_p": 0.5817069618409554,
"pooled": 0.4954615826113127,
"strat": 0.5615935091004379,
"strat_perm_p": 0.5321875910282552
},
"miss": {
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