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Gun mixing (TMHorizon+BitBrain) vs DrussGT: clean negative, no dodge disruption

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4 arms x 7 runs vs real DrussGT. mix alternates the two guns 476 times/7 runs
(liveness OK) but our bullets are no more varied (power sd / aim-offset sd flat)
and DrussGT's dodge quality is unchanged (miss/tick mix-pat +0.03, p=0.66; MDE
3.8%). mix wins 24/49 = the 49% baseline; the user's 6/10 has P=0.353 at 49%.
New tools/ab/ab_dodge_analyze.py splits the validated per-shot dodge instrument
by arm and adds gun-switch/power/bearing liveness; fixtures committed.
This commit is contained in:
Davide Cappellini
2026-09-24 23:05:12 +02:00
parent d93ce444c0
commit 32a5e72fac
5 changed files with 1272 additions and 0 deletions
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common_libs/tests/fixtures/gun_mix_dodge_results.json
Vendored
+486
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@@ -0,0 +1,486 @@
{
"arms": {
"bb": {
"ci": {
"lat_ctrl_abs": [
51.342068468176116,
52.805805223688346
],
"lat_fixed_abs": [
53.391673798672606,
54.727408738794885
],
"miss_per_tick": [
4.593774088337814,
4.716995057710113
]
},
"dodge": {
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"lat_ctrl_abs": 52.06310968098528,
"lat_disp_per_tick": 3.595491225896298,
"lat_fixed_abs": 54.02567072842506,
"miss": 118.60437036023144,
"miss_per_tick": 4.657664761142575
},
"guns": {
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},
"runs_with": 7,
"switches": 0
},
"rounds": 49,
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"shots": 5483,
"variation": {
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"-45": 1,
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"-30": 6,
"-25": 345,
"-20": 443,
"-15": 529,
"-10": 607,
"-5": 610,
"0": 662,
"5": 577,
"10": 486,
"15": 442,
"20": 482,
"25": 282,
"30": 5,
"40": 1,
"50": 1
},
"aimoff_iqr": 22.82389184815574,
"aimoff_mean": -0.6759743337347359,
"aimoff_sd": 14.329539671665751,
"power_distinct": 647,
"power_hist": {
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"0.52": 22,
"0.56": 22,
"0.6": 22,
"0.62": 24,
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"1.0": 3212,
"2.0": 22
},
"power_iqr": 0.5,
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"power_sd": 0.2477421650874806,
"range_mean": 473.40395357200674
}
},
"mix": {
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53.05168240489434
],
"lat_fixed_abs": [
53.751035608179855,
55.02334273976535
],
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4.756884860165204
]
},
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"lat_fixed_abs": 54.393824082815996,
"miss": 117.92160657194027,
"miss_per_tick": 4.671767229918404
},
"guns": {
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"TMHorizon": 275
},
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"switches": 476
},
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"shots": 5518,
"variation": {
"aimoff_hist": {
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"-20": 478,
"-15": 524,
"-10": 594,
"-5": 609,
"0": 642,
"5": 581,
"10": 521,
"15": 478,
"20": 521,
"25": 248,
"30": 29
},
"aimoff_iqr": 23.19629241229177,
"aimoff_mean": -0.19128061717982736,
"aimoff_sd": 14.302914943275754,
"power_distinct": 651,
"power_hist": {
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"0.7": 23,
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},
"power_iqr": 0.5,
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"power_sd": 0.2636852717444021,
"range_mean": 469.1328637380008
}
},
"pat": {
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],
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],
"miss_per_tick": [
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]
},
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"range_mean": 469.974151732332
}
},
"tmh": {
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],
"lat_fixed_abs": [
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],
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]
},
"dodge": {
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"lat_fixed_abs": 54.584278804670376,
"miss": 121.61307223099864,
"miss_per_tick": 4.736555181980398
},
"guns": {
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},
"runs_with": 7,
"switches": 0
},
"rounds": 49,
"runs": 7,
"shots": 5417,
"variation": {
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},
"aimoff_iqr": 23.130255387415104,
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"power_distinct": 594,
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},
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"power_mean": 0.8281302012183867,
"power_sd": 0.25254388017875856,
"range_mean": 479.94567493925
}
}
},
"commit": "f91e12196537c6c1e64353160e8885445e3e222b",
"contrasts": {
"bb-pat": {
"hit": {
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"perm_p": 0.02767258957180309,
"pooled": -0.007837589858024865,
"strat": -0.007832565743913025,
"strat_perm_p": 0.02825517040489368
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},
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},
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}
}
},
"rounds": 7,
"runs": 7
}