diff --git a/docs/movement_campaign.md b/docs/movement_campaign.md index ce8a7bc..0305b87 100644 --- a/docs/movement_campaign.md +++ b/docs/movement_campaign.md @@ -51,7 +51,7 @@ better. > ("melee A/B doc…"). The rules are therefore committed under a neighbour's > message — they are nonetheless dated before the data: no battle of Batch 1 > had been launched when they were written, and Batch 1's session.json records -> the same commit `1984a78` as the frozen-binary source.`) +> the same commit `1984a78` as the frozen-binary source. 1. **Primary metrics:** damage/run and ROUND WINS. Secondary/explanation only: damage taken/run, incoming hit rate (enemy hits ÷ enemy shots), achieved mean @@ -163,6 +163,13 @@ primaries**, so the heat-field retune alone is not what makes `strafe` win (INFERRED: `ring_notemp` also differs from `tfil` in commit ticks and wall radiance, so this is evidence against, not a clean isolation). +**The cleanest aggression isolation in the batch** is `ring` − `ring_notemp` +(same engine, same retuned heat field, only the range-weighted tile draw +differs, band 100–200): that lever alone is worth **+41.9 dmg/run** (150.1 vs +108.2), **−0.11 wins/run** (1.18 vs 1.29) and **+12.8 pp** incoming hit rate +(29.42% vs 16.67%) at 236 vs 395 px. Engaging harder converts into damage, never +into wins, and pays with hits. + **Mechanism (MEASURED, and the reason the win is a movement win):** in **216 of the 219 attributable runs**, our round-win count equals exactly the number of rounds in which the **opponent's death event** appears — round wins in this @@ -477,9 +484,11 @@ must be named, `TR_MOVEMENT=strafe` at its shipped range (325 px) has the best pooled round-win rate of the five arms in Batch 2 (58.5%) and ties `strafe_notilt` in Batch 1, while `strafe_notilt` is the simpler arm (it has no range steering to mis-tune). It is better than the shipped `tfil` by a margin that survives the -between-opponent spread: +0.33…+0.58 wins/run, 95% CIs excluding 0 in three of -four measurements, 9/9 + 10/11 + 11/12 decisive opponents in favour, MDE 0.29–0.40 -vs observed 0.38–0.58. Rejecting "no change": `tfil`'s win share of 39–41% is +between-opponent spread: +0.33…+0.58 wins/run, **all four measurements with a +95% CI excluding 0** ([+0.04,+0.63], [+0.16,+0.60], [+0.27,+0.89], [+0.22,+0.72]), +and 9/9, 10/12, 11/12 and 10/11 decisive opponents in favour, against an MDE of +0.29–0.40 — i.e. every measurement sits at or above its own detection threshold. +Rejecting "no change": `tfil`'s win share of 39–41% is **not** the best movement we have measured. ### The analyzer's full report (verbatim)