movement gate v2: pre-register the sign-flip primary test on fresh 300-battle data (before any battle)

tools/ab/arms_movement_v2.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
+# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+# arms_movement_v2.txt — GATE-V2 fresh-data confirmation of the movement
+# champion, run at the HIGHEST power of the campaign (10 runs/arm vs 5 in the
+# gate-v1 confirmation) on the FROZEN panel tools/ab/panel_movement.txt.
+#
+# Why this file exists (see docs/movement_campaign.md, "Fresh-data confirmation
+# (gate v2)", pre-registered and committed BEFORE these battles):
+#   * Gate v1 (commit ff03e81) required BOTH a pooled 95% CI excluding 0 AND the
+#     plain cross-opponent sign test at p<0.05. The CI passed; the plain sign
+#     test failed at 10/13 decisive, p=0.0923. The plain sign test is the
+#     WEAKEST of the three cross-opponent tests the analyzer prints (it discards
+#     the magnitude of each paired delta) and was underpowered at n=13.
+#   * The gate-v1 failure is NOT reinterpreted. Gate v2 is a NEW
+#     pre-registration with the sign-flip permutation test as the PRIMARY test,
+#     confirmed on FRESH, independent data.
+#
+# PRIMARY TEST (pre-committed): sign-flip permutation test on per-opponent
+# paired Δwins/run, two-sided p<0.05 AND pooled 95% CI excluding 0 AND a
+# positive point estimate. Ship the default flip ONLY if it passes.
+#
+# REFERENCE is `tfil` — every delta below is (arm − tfil), opponent by opponent.
+#
+# Format: name | ENV=value ENV=value | label
+# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+# 1. THE CHAMPION under gate-v2 confirmation — current strafe defaults.
+strafe | TR_MOVEMENT=strafe | champion — current strafe defaults (candidate to ship)
+
+# 2. THE ARM TO BEAT — the currently shipped default, explicitly selected.
+#    (The explicit `TR_MOVEMENT=tfil` also proves the override path stays
+#    reachable after any default flip.)
+tfil | TR_MOVEMENT=tfil | shipped baseline — explicit tfil override