From 78723fce1380ce8a92d6a835e0d27c9494647e7c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Davide Cappellini <signorsasso@gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 20 Sep 2026 01:05:22 +0200
Subject: [PATCH] fix(GFGun): head-on prior + per-bin mea in onResult

- Cold-start bug: uniform bins[0..30]=0.1 made peakBin() always return
  0 (first-wins tie), giving GF=-1 (max CW escape) before any learning.
  Fixed with a triangular head-on bump at bin 15 (GF=0) as the prior.
- onResult now recomputes mea from FeedbackEvent.bulletPower instead of
  the stale first-bin mea cached by predict; correct per-power-bin GF.
- Add DebugGF const (default false) with [gf-dbg] echoes in predict/onResult.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---
 common_libs/guns/guess_factor.nim | 32 +++++++++++++++++++++++--------
 1 file changed, 24 insertions(+), 8 deletions(-)

diff --git a/common_libs/guns/guess_factor.nim b/common_libs/guns/guess_factor.nim
index 43fac7d..93dee1d 100644
--- a/common_libs/guns/guess_factor.nim
+++ b/common_libs/guns/guess_factor.nim
@@ -2,18 +2,19 @@
 ## Bins: 31, ranging GF -1 (max CW escape) to +1 (max CCW escape).
 ## Learns from virtual bullet outcomes; caches wave state per-tick.
 
-import std/math
+import std/[math, strformat]
 import gun_harness/gun_interface
 
 const
-  GFBins  = 31
-  GFPrior = 0.1
+  GFBins   = 31
+  GFPrior  = 0.1
+  DebugGF* = false
 
 type
   Wave = object
     fireX, fireY: float
     fireBearing:  float  # atan2(enemyY-selfY, enemyX-selfX) at fire tick (rad)
-    mea:          float  # max escape angle (rad)
+    # mea not stored — recomputed from FeedbackEvent.bulletPower at resolution time
 
   GFGun* = object
     bins:        array[GFBins, float]
@@ -24,8 +25,12 @@ type
 
 proc initGFGun*(): GFGun =
   result.cachedTick = -1
+  # Seed with a head-on prior: triangular bump at bin 15 (GF=0).
+  # Prevents the cold-start tie-break to GF=-1 (bin 0) that poisons early fitness.
+  let center = (GFBins - 1) div 2  # = 15
   for i in 0..<GFBins:
-    result.bins[i] = GFPrior
+    let d = abs(i - center)
+    result.bins[i] = GFPrior + 0.5 / float(1 + d)
 
 proc gfToIndex(gf: float): int {.inline.} =
   clamp(int(round((gf + 1.0) * 0.5 * float(GFBins - 1))), 0, GFBins - 1)
@@ -60,15 +65,19 @@ proc predict*(g: var GFGun, state: WorldState, bulletSpeed: float): GunPredictio
       fireX:       state.selfX,
       fireY:       state.selfY,
       fireBearing: bearing,
-      mea:         mea,
     )
     g.cachedWaveStored = true
 
-  let gfAngle = bearing + indexToGF(g.peakBin()) * mea
+  let peak = g.peakBin()
+  let peakGF = indexToGF(peak)
+  let gfAngle = bearing + peakGF * mea
   # Aim from self at gfAngle, at current dist (angular targeting)
   let px = state.selfX + cos(gfAngle) * dist
   let py = state.selfY + sin(gfAngle) * dist
 
+  when DebugGF:
+    echo fmt"[gf-dbg] predict: peakGF={peakGF:.2f} peakBin={peak} mea={radToDeg(mea):.1f}° aimAngle={radToDeg(gfAngle):.1f}° waves={g.waves.len}"
+
   GunPrediction(
     x: clamp(px, BotRadius, state.arenaWidth  - BotRadius),
     y: clamp(py, BotRadius, state.arenaHeight - BotRadius),
@@ -87,6 +96,10 @@ proc onResult*(g: var GFGun, e: FeedbackEvent) =
   let w = g.waves[0]
   g.waves.delete(0)
 
+  # Recompute mea from the actual bullet power (correct per-bin, not the cached first-bin mea)
+  let speed = bulletSpeed(e.bulletPower)
+  let mea   = arcsin(clamp(8.0 / speed, -1.0, 1.0))
+
   # Compute actual bearing from fire position to where the enemy actually was
   let actualDx = e.actualX - w.fireX
   let actualDy = e.actualY - w.fireY
@@ -96,9 +109,12 @@ proc onResult*(g: var GFGun, e: FeedbackEvent) =
   while bearingDelta >  PI: bearingDelta -= 2.0*PI
   while bearingDelta < -PI: bearingDelta += 2.0*PI
 
-  let gf = if w.mea > 1e-10: clamp(bearingDelta / w.mea, -1.0, 1.0) else: 0.0
+  let gf = if mea > 1e-10: clamp(bearingDelta / mea, -1.0, 1.0) else: 0.0
   let centerIdx = gfToIndex(gf)
 
+  when DebugGF:
+    echo fmt"[gf-dbg] onResult: fireBearing={radToDeg(w.fireBearing):.1f}° actualBearing={radToDeg(actualBearing):.1f}° delta={radToDeg(bearingDelta):.1f}° MEA={radToDeg(mea):.1f}° GF={gf:.2f} peakBin={centerIdx}"
+
   # Triangular smoothing kernel over adjacent bins
   for i in 0..<GFBins:
     let dist = abs(i - centerIdx)