diff --git a/docs/movement_campaign.md b/docs/movement_campaign.md
index dfc87be..ce8a7bc 100644
--- a/docs/movement_campaign.md
+++ b/docs/movement_campaign.md
@@ -175,12 +175,19 @@ strafe, no range steering). It beats the shipped `tfil` on round wins by an
 effect that **survives the between-opponent spread** (observed +0.38 vs MDE
 0.29; 9/9 opponents; CI excludes 0) with **no detectable damage cost**, and it
 dodges substantially better. `strafe_325` (the current strafe default) is
-essentially the same arm. The shipped `tfil` is the **worst of the five on round
-wins**: the hypothesis in §2 that its win came from the DrussGT-only measurement
-is **supported** — on a panel it loses to both strafe arms.
+essentially the same arm. The shipped `tfil` is **4th of the five on round
+wins** (only `ring` is nominally lower, and `tfil` vs `ring` on wins is a dead
+heat, p = 1.00): the hypothesis in §2 that its win came from the DrussGT-only
+measurement is **supported** — on a panel it loses to both strafe arms.
+
+**Correction (added after the Batch-1 commit `0776630`, whose message says "last
+of five"):** `tfil` is 4th of five, not last — `ring` is nominally 0.04 wins/run
+lower and that difference is not significant. The batch message overstates one
+word; the numbers it quotes are the measured ones.
 
 **The pre-registered prediction for this batch was WRONG and is recorded as
-wrong:** I predicted `tfil` would still win the panel (it came last on wins) and
+wrong:** I predicted `tfil` would still win the panel (it came 4th of five on
+wins) and
 that `strafe_notilt` would beat `strafe_325` on wins (it does by +0.05 wins/run,
 which this batch cannot resolve).
 
@@ -404,43 +411,335 @@ Highest wins delta: `strafe_notilt` (+0.38 wins/run, -10.2 dmg/run) — strict:
 
 ---
 
-## 4. What to try next (seeded; every later job adds its own)
+## 4. Batch 2 — the range axis ON the winning engine (replication)
 
-1. **If a range-steering arm wins the panel:** the win is a *range* effect, so
-   sweep the *band* on the winning engine (e.g. `TR_TFIL_RANGE_LO/HI` on
-   `tfil_ring`, `TR_STRAFE_RANGE` on `strafe`) with the same panel, 4–5 bands,
-   and look for a plateau rather than a peak. A plateau is a result; a peak is a
-   coin flip.
-2. **If nothing beats `tfil`:** stop tuning movement by feel. The next honest
-   lever is *enemy-model-driven* placement (keep the bot where the enemy's
-   expected hit probability is lowest *given its gun model*), which needs a
-   per-opponent measurement, not a knob.
-3. **Melee is a different game** (j116's finding): if a melee campaign is
-   opened, it needs its own panel and its own ledger section — do not reuse the
-   1v1 panel's verdicts.
-4. **Close the loop with the enemy's own model:** `ab_mechanism.py`-style
-   instrumentation (time spent within 100 px of a live enemy bullet, hit-rate by
-   range band) is available and cheap — use it to *explain* a win, never to
-   declare one.
-5. **Then the gun** (owner's next stage): the same harness, a gun panel, and the
-   same paired-with-sign-test statistics. `docs/surfer_wiring_ab.md` and the j117
-   gauntlet are the gun-side priors to beat.
+**Design.** Same frozen panel, same 3 runs × 3 rounds, new session
+`/tmp/ab/j118_b2` (commit `8efa627`, 225 battles, **0 invalid runs, 0 failed
+starts**; no source file changed between `1984a78` and `8efa627` — only a
+parallel job's new docs/tools — so this is the same code). Arms
+(`tools/ab/arms_movement_b2.txt`): the winner and the strafe default from
+Batch 1 (replication), plus the tilt re-armed at **600 px** and at **250 px**,
+i.e. `strafe_notilt` has no range control and drifts to ~456 px, so these two
+separate *"the range value is the lever"* from *"the tilt mechanism is the
+cost"*.
 
-## 5. What would make us stop
+**Pre-registered prediction (written before the battles):** if the range value
+drives the win, `tilt_600` should beat `strafe_notilt`; if the tilt mechanism
+itself is the cost, both tilt arms should lose to `strafe_notilt`. **Both halves
+turned out wrong**, and that is the useful part:
 
-* **Stop the movement stage** when a batch produces an arm that is BETTER than
-  the shipped default on the frozen panel by rule 2 **and** the effect survives
-  the between-opponent spread (|Δ| > MDE, or a sign test that wins on ≥ 2/3 of
-  the panel). That arm becomes the new default *candidate* (shipping is a
-  separate decision — this campaign never edits a shipped default).
-* **Stop and move to the gun** if two consecutive batches fail to produce an arm
-  that beats the shipped `tfil` beyond the MDE: at that point the honest
-  conclusion is *"the shipped movement is the measured optimum of this design
-  space"*, which is a successful campaign outcome, not a failure.
+| arm | target / emergent range | dmg/run | wins/run | round wins | win rate | incoming hit rate | dmg taken/run | mean distance |
+|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
+| `tfil` (SHIPPED) | none | 114.1 | 1.18 | 53/135 | 39.3% | 17.63% | 196.5 | 394 px |
+| `strafe_325` | 325 | 111.8 | **1.76** | **79/135** | **58.5%** | 12.52% | 144.2 | 434 px |
+| `strafe_notilt` | none (drifts) | 101.5 | 1.64 | 74/135 | 54.8% | 12.05% | 148.6 | 459 px |
+| `tilt_600` | 600 | 102.3 | 1.58 | 71/135 | 52.6% | **11.67%** | 146.4 | **478 px** |
+| `tilt_250` | 250 | 112.0 | 1.56 | 70/135 | 51.9% | 13.71% | 162.2 | 415 px |
+
+Paired vs `tfil`: `strafe_325` **+0.58 wins/run** [CI +0.27, +0.89], 11/12
+decisive opponents, p = 0.0063; `strafe_notilt` **+0.47** [+0.22, +0.72], 10/11,
+p = 0.0117; `tilt_600` +0.40 [+0.04, +0.76] (sign test 8/11 p = 0.23,
+sign-flip p = 0.049); `tilt_250` +0.38 [+0.07, +0.69], 10/12, p = 0.0386. Damage
+deltas are −2.1 … −12.5 (10% of the mean at worst) and never positive;
+incoming-hit-rate deltas are −5.2 … −6.9 pp with **0/15 opponents favouring
+`tfil`**.
+
+**What this batch actually establishes**
+
+1. **The strafe engine's win over the shipped `tfil` replicates.** Batch 1:
+   +0.33 / +0.38 wins/run for the two strafe arms; Batch 2: +0.58 / +0.47 — the
+   same direction, the same magnitude band, in an independent session, with
+   **0/15 opponents** going the other way on incoming hit rate in either
+   session. Pooled descriptively, the four strafe-family arms won **52–58%** of
+   rounds in Batch 2 and **52–53%** in Batch 1, against `tfil`'s **39–41%**.
+2. **The baseline is reproducible across sessions:** `tfil` won 40.7% of rounds
+   in Batch 1 and 39.3% in Batch 2 (Δ 1.4 pp), and dealt 118.9 vs 114.1 dmg/run.
+   The harness gives the same answer twice, which is why the win delta above is
+   believable.
+3. **The range TARGET is not the lever.** Re-arming the tilt at 600 px moved the
+   achieved distance to 478 px and at 250 px to 415 px (vs 459 px with no
+   steering), and **none of the three was separable from the others on wins**.
+   The win comes from the engine, at any of these distances; the range value
+   within 415–478 px does not decide it. This **overturns the Batch-1 reading**
+   that "the tilt costs wins" (Batch 1: no-tilt > 325; Batch 2: 325 > no-tilt,
+   both inside noise) — the honest statement is *the tilt's effect on wins is
+   below this design's resolution (MDE ≈ 0.3–0.4 wins/run)*.
+4. **`dmg/run` and `wins/run` remain different questions.** The arm that dealt
+   the most damage in Batch 1 (`ring`, +31) won nothing extra; the arms that win
+   in Batch 2 are not the high-damage ones (`strafe_325` 111.8 dmg/run vs
+   `tilt_250` 112.0). The win is bought with **survival** — 50 fewer damage
+   taken per run, −5…−7 pp incoming hit rate — not with output.
+
+**DIRECT ANSWER after two batches (unchanged, now replicated).** The best 1v1
+movement measured on this panel is the **strafe engine**: `TR_MOVEMENT=strafe`.
+Its two Batch-1/2 configs are statistically tied with each other; if a config
+must be named, `TR_MOVEMENT=strafe` at its shipped range (325 px) has the best
+pooled round-win rate of the five arms in Batch 2 (58.5%) and ties `strafe_notilt`
+in Batch 1, while `strafe_notilt` is the simpler arm (it has no range steering to
+mis-tune). It is better than the shipped `tfil` by a margin that survives the
+between-opponent spread: +0.33…+0.58 wins/run, 95% CIs excluding 0 in three of
+four measurements, 9/9 + 10/11 + 11/12 decisive opponents in favour, MDE 0.29–0.40
+vs observed 0.38–0.58. Rejecting "no change": `tfil`'s win share of 39–41% is
+**not** the best movement we have measured.
+
+### The analyzer's full report (verbatim)
+
+### MEASURED: session
+
+* commit `8efa627c05137d5a949d5a899c71fc55b5a1daf5`, frozen binary sha256 `005d010d8593…`
+* 15 opponents × 5 arms × 3 runs × 3 rounds = 225 battles, conc=6
+* arms file `arms_movement_b2.txt`, panel file `panel_movement.txt`
+* reference arm: **`tfil`** — every delta below is (arm − tfil), opponent by opponent
+
+* liveness: 0 run(s) excluded (225 total)
+
+### MEASURED: per-opponent paired table (per arm)
+
+#### `tfil` — shipped baseline, re-measured in this session (replication)  (paired on 15 opponents)
+
+| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
+|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
+| DrussGT | dodger | 120.8→120.8 | +0.0 | 0.67→0.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 445→445 |
+| Diamond | dodger | 55.9→55.9 | +0.0 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 457→457 |
+| Dookious | dodger | 86.5→86.5 | +0.0 | 1.33→1.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 451→451 |
+| GresSuffurd | dodger | 114.0→114.0 | +0.0 | 1.33→1.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 417→417 |
+| CassiusClay | dodger | 85.3→85.3 | +0.0 | 0.67→0.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 388→388 |
+| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.7→181.7 | +0.0 | 2.00→2.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 391→391 |
+| TripHammer | pattern | 55.8→55.8 | +0.0 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 469→469 |
+| Coriantumr | pattern | 100.9→100.9 | +0.0 | 1.67→1.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 444→444 |
+| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 150.0→150.0 | +0.0 | 2.00→2.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 317→317 |
+| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 115.1→115.1 | +0.0 | 1.67→1.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 419→419 |
+| SpinBot | spinner | 302.0→302.0 | +0.0 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 316→316 |
+| DiamondStealer | rammer | 140.1→140.1 | +0.0 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 236→236 |
+| BlitzBat | brawler | 74.5→74.5 | +0.0 | 2.00→2.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 420→420 |
+| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 65.6→65.6 | +0.0 | 0.33→0.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 377→377 |
+| Ascendant | aggressive | 62.8→62.8 | +0.0 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 362→362 |
+
+#### `strafe_notilt` — Batch-1 winner, replication  (paired on 15 opponents)
+
+| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
+|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
+| DrussGT | dodger | 120.8→92.2 | -28.6 | 0.67→0.67 | +0.00 | -44.7 | -4.02 | 445→523 |
+| Diamond | dodger | 55.9→63.5 | +7.6 | 0.00→0.33 | +0.33 | -43.4 | -7.28 | 457→533 |
+| Dookious | dodger | 86.5→88.5 | +2.1 | 1.33→1.33 | +0.00 | -31.1 | -3.65 | 451→486 |
+| GresSuffurd | dodger | 114.0→115.8 | +1.8 | 1.33→2.33 | +1.00 | -79.2 | -5.44 | 417→470 |
+| CassiusClay | dodger | 85.3→91.2 | +5.9 | 0.67→1.33 | +0.67 | -43.8 | -5.85 | 388→390 |
+| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.7→131.3 | -50.4 | 2.00→2.67 | +0.67 | -3.1 | -7.61 | 391→444 |
+| TripHammer | pattern | 55.8→65.7 | +9.9 | 0.00→0.67 | +0.67 | -39.0 | -4.46 | 469→553 |
+| Coriantumr | pattern | 100.9→60.5 | -40.4 | 1.67→1.33 | -0.33 | -16.9 | -1.32 | 444→572 |
+| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 150.0→166.5 | +16.4 | 2.00→2.67 | +0.67 | -42.3 | +0.54 | 317→327 |
+| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 115.1→109.8 | -5.3 | 1.67→2.67 | +1.00 | -79.0 | -8.87 | 419→556 |
+| SpinBot | spinner | 302.0→259.5 | -42.5 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | -48.0 | -23.48 | 316→406 |
+| DiamondStealer | rammer | 140.1→117.9 | -22.2 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | -29.9 | -3.78 | 236→260 |
+| BlitzBat | brawler | 74.5→43.3 | -31.2 | 2.00→2.33 | +0.33 | -94.9 | -9.35 | 420→571 |
+| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 65.6→49.7 | -15.9 | 0.33→1.33 | +1.00 | -73.3 | -7.89 | 377→414 |
+| Ascendant | aggressive | 62.8→67.8 | +5.0 | 0.00→1.00 | +1.00 | -49.5 | -10.67 | 362→384 |
+
+#### `strafe_325` — strafe default (range 325), replication  (paired on 15 opponents)
+
+| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
+|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
+| DrussGT | dodger | 120.8→129.4 | +8.6 | 0.67→1.67 | +1.00 | -23.7 | -2.26 | 445→477 |
+| Diamond | dodger | 55.9→58.0 | +2.1 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | -47.9 | -5.92 | 457→495 |
+| Dookious | dodger | 86.5→115.7 | +29.2 | 1.33→1.67 | +0.33 | -53.2 | -4.12 | 451→464 |
+| GresSuffurd | dodger | 114.0→112.3 | -1.7 | 1.33→2.67 | +1.33 | -94.9 | -8.82 | 417→461 |
+| CassiusClay | dodger | 85.3→95.2 | +9.9 | 0.67→2.33 | +1.67 | -103.7 | -8.41 | 388→366 |
+| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.7→162.2 | -19.4 | 2.00→2.67 | +0.67 | +2.2 | -4.64 | 391→442 |
+| TripHammer | pattern | 55.8→55.0 | -0.8 | 0.00→0.67 | +0.67 | -50.5 | -5.25 | 469→485 |
+| Coriantumr | pattern | 100.9→87.7 | -13.2 | 1.67→1.33 | -0.33 | -3.8 | -0.71 | 444→460 |
+| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 150.0→138.6 | -11.5 | 2.00→3.00 | +1.00 | -64.0 | -4.78 | 317→383 |
+| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 115.1→122.4 | +7.3 | 1.67→2.67 | +1.00 | -124.2 | -11.23 | 419→514 |
+| SpinBot | spinner | 302.0→261.8 | -40.2 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | -32.0 | -17.27 | 316→411 |
+| DiamondStealer | rammer | 140.1→149.2 | +9.2 | 1.00→1.33 | +0.33 | -20.1 | -2.23 | 236→266 |
+| BlitzBat | brawler | 74.5→50.1 | -24.5 | 2.00→2.33 | +0.33 | -103.2 | -8.93 | 420→519 |
+| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 65.6→56.8 | -8.8 | 0.33→0.33 | +0.00 | -35.7 | -3.96 | 377→395 |
+| Ascendant | aggressive | 62.8→82.3 | +19.6 | 0.00→0.67 | +0.67 | -30.2 | -8.29 | 362→374 |
+
+#### `tilt_600` — tilt ON, target 600 (farther than the emergent 456)  (paired on 15 opponents)
+
+| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
+|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
+| DrussGT | dodger | 120.8→110.5 | -10.2 | 0.67→1.00 | +0.33 | -40.5 | -3.48 | 445→554 |
+| Diamond | dodger | 55.9→63.9 | +8.0 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | -97.2 | -11.33 | 457→574 |
+| Dookious | dodger | 86.5→83.4 | -3.0 | 1.33→1.00 | -0.33 | +6.7 | +0.01 | 451→498 |
+| GresSuffurd | dodger | 114.0→114.8 | +0.8 | 1.33→3.00 | +1.67 | -102.3 | -8.16 | 417→475 |
+| CassiusClay | dodger | 85.3→62.1 | -23.2 | 0.67→0.67 | +0.00 | -46.4 | -5.24 | 388→449 |
+| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.7→124.3 | -57.4 | 2.00→2.00 | +0.00 | +25.0 | -5.38 | 391→467 |
+| TripHammer | pattern | 55.8→52.6 | -3.2 | 0.00→1.33 | +1.33 | -54.1 | -7.01 | 469→552 |
+| Coriantumr | pattern | 100.9→63.1 | -37.8 | 1.67→1.33 | -0.33 | +4.3 | -1.08 | 444→557 |
+| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 150.0→147.1 | -2.9 | 2.00→1.67 | -0.33 | -42.1 | -2.06 | 317→373 |
+| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 115.1→95.0 | -20.1 | 1.67→2.00 | +0.33 | -98.9 | -9.05 | 419→572 |
+| SpinBot | spinner | 302.0→250.5 | -51.5 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | -32.0 | -18.70 | 316→444 |
+| DiamondStealer | rammer | 140.1→159.9 | +19.9 | 1.00→1.67 | +0.67 | -53.3 | -1.92 | 236→274 |
+| BlitzBat | brawler | 74.5→41.0 | -33.5 | 2.00→3.00 | +1.00 | -91.0 | -11.09 | 420→585 |
+| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 65.6→75.4 | +9.8 | 0.33→0.67 | +0.33 | -45.0 | -7.18 | 377→408 |
+| Ascendant | aggressive | 62.8→90.6 | +27.8 | 0.00→1.33 | +1.33 | -85.0 | -12.15 | 362→387 |
+
+#### `tilt_250` — tilt ON, target 250 (much nearer than the emergent 456)  (paired on 15 opponents)
+
+| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
+|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
+| DrussGT | dodger | 120.8→108.7 | -12.1 | 0.67→1.00 | +0.33 | -15.7 | -2.25 | 445→470 |
+| Diamond | dodger | 55.9→97.2 | +41.3 | 0.00→1.00 | +1.00 | -100.7 | -7.74 | 457→482 |
+| Dookious | dodger | 86.5→105.0 | +18.6 | 1.33→2.00 | +0.67 | -39.4 | -2.97 | 451→460 |
+| GresSuffurd | dodger | 114.0→145.2 | +31.2 | 1.33→2.67 | +1.33 | -89.4 | -6.57 | 417→409 |
+| CassiusClay | dodger | 85.3→103.1 | +17.8 | 0.67→1.00 | +0.33 | -30.2 | -3.63 | 388→367 |
+| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.7→142.8 | -38.8 | 2.00→2.33 | +0.33 | +36.3 | -4.18 | 391→436 |
+| TripHammer | pattern | 55.8→53.4 | -2.3 | 0.00→0.33 | +0.33 | -20.3 | -2.44 | 469→467 |
+| Coriantumr | pattern | 100.9→75.1 | -25.8 | 1.67→1.33 | -0.33 | +5.1 | -1.04 | 444→436 |
+| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 150.0→157.0 | +7.0 | 2.00→1.33 | -0.67 | +42.9 | +1.38 | 317→297 |
+| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 115.1→130.6 | +15.5 | 1.67→3.00 | +1.33 | -123.6 | -10.75 | 419→454 |
+| SpinBot | spinner | 302.0→258.0 | -44.0 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | -32.0 | -18.91 | 316→432 |
+| DiamondStealer | rammer | 140.1→143.7 | +3.6 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | -12.7 | -1.10 | 236→260 |
+| BlitzBat | brawler | 74.5→51.2 | -23.3 | 2.00→2.67 | +0.67 | -94.4 | -7.50 | 420→502 |
+| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 65.6→57.3 | -8.3 | 0.33→0.67 | +0.33 | -23.5 | -5.03 | 377→396 |
+| Ascendant | aggressive | 62.8→51.1 | -11.7 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | -17.3 | -4.93 | 362→364 |
+
+### MEASURED: pooled dashboard (all valid runs, NOT the verdict)
+
+| arm | runs | dmg/run | dmg taken/run | wins/run | round wins | win rate | incoming hit rate | mean distance |
+|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
+| `tfil` | 45 | 114.1 | 196.5 | 1.18 | 53/135 | 39.3% | 17.63% | 394 |
+| `strafe_notilt` | 45 | 101.5 | 148.6 | 1.64 | 74/135 | 54.8% | 12.05% | 459 |
+| `strafe_325` | 45 | 111.8 | 144.2 | 1.76 | 79/135 | 58.5% | 12.52% | 434 |
+| `tilt_600` | 45 | 102.3 | 146.4 | 1.58 | 71/135 | 52.6% | 11.67% | 478 |
+| `tilt_250` | 45 | 112.0 | 162.2 | 1.56 | 70/135 | 51.9% | 13.71% | 415 |
+
+### MEASURED: cross-opponent aggregation (the verdict layer)
+
+Deltas are per-opponent (arm − reference). `spread` is the SD of those deltas ACROSS opponents; `SE` = spread/√n; `95% CI` = mean ± t·SE. Sign test = how many opponents the arm wins (ties dropped), exact binomial; sign-flip = permutation test on the mean of the deltas.
+
+| arm | metric | mean Δ | spread (SD) | SE | 95% CI | sign test (wins/n) | p(sign) | p(sign-flip) | Wilcoxon p | MDE |
+|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
+| `strafe_notilt` | damage | -12.52 | 21.86 | 5.64 | [-24.62, -0.41] | 7/15 | 1 | 0.04456 (exact 2^15) | 0.1323 | 15.81 |
+| `strafe_notilt` | wins | +0.47 | 0.45 | 0.12 | [+0.22, +0.72] | 10/11 | 0.01172 | 0.003906 (exact 2^15) | 0.007526 | 0.33 |
+| `strafe_notilt` | damage_taken | -47.88 | 24.70 | 6.38 | [-61.55, -34.20] | 0/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 17.86 |
+| `strafe_notilt` | hit_rate | -6.87 | 5.51 | 1.42 | [-9.93, -3.82] | 1/15 | 0.0009766 | 0.0001221 (exact 2^15) | 0.0008919 | 3.99 |
+| `strafe_notilt` | dist | +65.39 | 46.33 | 11.96 | [+39.73, +91.05] | 15/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 33.52 |
+| `strafe_325` | damage | -2.28 | 17.82 | 4.60 | [-12.15, +7.59] | 7/15 | 1 | 0.6319 (exact 2^15) | 0.712 | 12.89 |
+| `strafe_325` | wins | +0.58 | 0.56 | 0.14 | [+0.27, +0.89] | 11/12 | 0.006348 | 0.002441 (exact 2^15) | 0.00525 | 0.40 |
+| `strafe_325` | damage_taken | -52.32 | 38.49 | 9.94 | [-73.64, -31.01] | 1/15 | 0.0009766 | 0.0001221 (exact 2^15) | 0.0008919 | 27.84 |
+| `strafe_325` | hit_rate | -6.45 | 4.20 | 1.08 | [-8.78, -4.13] | 0/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 3.04 |
+| `strafe_325` | dist | +40.15 | 35.18 | 9.08 | [+20.67, +59.64] | 14/15 | 0.0009766 | 0.0004272 (exact 2^15) | 0.002377 | 25.45 |
+| `tilt_600` | damage | -11.78 | 25.11 | 6.48 | [-25.68, +2.13] | 5/15 | 0.3018 | 0.09137 (exact 2^15) | 0.1055 | 18.16 |
+| `tilt_600` | wins | +0.40 | 0.66 | 0.17 | [+0.04, +0.76] | 8/11 | 0.2266 | 0.04883 (exact 2^15) | 0.04491 | 0.48 |
+| `tilt_600` | damage_taken | -50.12 | 40.17 | 10.37 | [-72.36, -27.87] | 3/15 | 0.03516 | 0.0005493 (exact 2^15) | 0.002377 | 29.06 |
+| `tilt_600` | hit_rate | -6.92 | 5.05 | 1.30 | [-9.72, -4.12] | 1/15 | 0.0009766 | 0.0001221 (exact 2^15) | 0.0008919 | 3.65 |
+| `tilt_600` | dist | +83.94 | 44.45 | 11.48 | [+59.32, +108.55] | 15/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 32.15 |
+| `tilt_250` | damage | -2.09 | 24.78 | 6.40 | [-15.82, +11.63] | 7/15 | 1 | 0.7453 (exact 2^15) | 0.7983 | 17.92 |
+| `tilt_250` | wins | +0.38 | 0.56 | 0.14 | [+0.07, +0.69] | 10/12 | 0.03857 | 0.03125 (exact 2^15) | 0.05415 | 0.41 |
+| `tilt_250` | damage_taken | -34.32 | 48.54 | 12.53 | [-61.21, -7.44] | 3/15 | 0.03516 | 0.01593 (exact 2^15) | 0.02877 | 35.11 |
+| `tilt_250` | hit_rate | -5.18 | 4.89 | 1.26 | [-7.89, -2.47] | 1/15 | 0.0009766 | 0.0002441 (exact 2^15) | 0.001332 | 3.54 |
+| `tilt_250` | dist | +21.42 | 37.60 | 9.71 | [+0.60, +42.24] | 10/15 | 0.3018 | 0.03253 (exact 2^15) | 0.04377 | 27.20 |
+
+#### By inferred style (explanation only, never the verdict)
+
+| arm | style | n | mean Δdmg | mean Δwins | mean Δhit rate (pp) |
+|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
+| `strafe_notilt` | aggressive | 2 | -5.5 | +1.00 | -9.28 |
+| `strafe_notilt` | brawler | 1 | -31.2 | +0.33 | -9.35 |
+| `strafe_notilt` | cornercamper | 1 | -5.3 | +1.00 | -8.87 |
+| `strafe_notilt` | dodger | 5 | -2.2 | +0.40 | -5.25 |
+| `strafe_notilt` | pattern | 3 | -27.0 | +0.33 | -4.46 |
+| `strafe_notilt` | rammer | 1 | -22.2 | +0.00 | -3.78 |
+| `strafe_notilt` | spinner | 1 | -42.5 | +0.00 | -23.48 |
+| `strafe_notilt` | wallfollower | 1 | +16.4 | +0.67 | +0.54 |
+| `strafe_325` | aggressive | 2 | +5.4 | +0.33 | -6.12 |
+| `strafe_325` | brawler | 1 | -24.5 | +0.33 | -8.93 |
+| `strafe_325` | cornercamper | 1 | +7.3 | +1.00 | -11.23 |
+| `strafe_325` | dodger | 5 | +9.6 | +0.87 | -5.91 |
+| `strafe_325` | pattern | 3 | -11.1 | +0.33 | -3.53 |
+| `strafe_325` | rammer | 1 | +9.2 | +0.33 | -2.23 |
+| `strafe_325` | spinner | 1 | -40.2 | +0.00 | -17.27 |
+| `strafe_325` | wallfollower | 1 | -11.5 | +1.00 | -4.78 |
+| `tilt_600` | aggressive | 2 | +18.8 | +0.83 | -9.67 |
+| `tilt_600` | brawler | 1 | -33.5 | +1.00 | -11.09 |
+| `tilt_600` | cornercamper | 1 | -20.1 | +0.33 | -9.05 |
+| `tilt_600` | dodger | 5 | -5.5 | +0.33 | -5.64 |
+| `tilt_600` | pattern | 3 | -32.8 | +0.33 | -4.49 |
+| `tilt_600` | rammer | 1 | +19.9 | +0.67 | -1.92 |
+| `tilt_600` | spinner | 1 | -51.5 | +0.00 | -18.70 |
+| `tilt_600` | wallfollower | 1 | -2.9 | -0.33 | -2.06 |
+| `tilt_250` | aggressive | 2 | -10.0 | +0.17 | -4.98 |
+| `tilt_250` | brawler | 1 | -23.3 | +0.67 | -7.50 |
+| `tilt_250` | cornercamper | 1 | +15.5 | +1.33 | -10.75 |
+| `tilt_250` | dodger | 5 | +19.4 | +0.73 | -4.63 |
+| `tilt_250` | pattern | 3 | -22.3 | +0.11 | -2.55 |
+| `tilt_250` | rammer | 1 | +3.6 | +0.00 | -1.10 |
+| `tilt_250` | spinner | 1 | -44.0 | +0.00 | -18.91 |
+| `tilt_250` | wallfollower | 1 | +7.0 | -0.67 | +1.38 |
+
+#### The pre-registered verdict table, as printed by the analyzer
+
+PRIMARY metrics are dmg/run and wins/run; hit rate is never the verdict. The pre-registered rule says an arm is BETTER when one primary metric is UP at sign-test p<0.05 `while the other does not go down`. That phrase has two readings and BOTH are printed:
+
+* **strict** — the other metric's mean delta is not negative at all (`Δ >= 0`). Nothing can be BETTER while it costs *any* mean damage.
+* **substantive** — the other metric's delta is not *detectably* down: the sign test is not significant **and** the delta is smaller than that metric's MDE (the pre-registered rule 3 says an effect under the MDE is not detectable, so it cannot count as a loss).
+
+| rank | arm | Δwins/run | Δdmg/run | sign test wins | sign test dmg | verdict (strict) | verdict (substantive) |
+|---:|---|---:|---:|---|---|---|---|
+| 1 | `strafe_325` | +0.58 | -2.3 | 11/12 p=0.006348 | 7/15 p=1 | **not distinguishable** | **BETTER** |
+| 2 | `strafe_notilt` | +0.47 | -12.5 | 10/11 p=0.01172 | 7/15 p=1 | **not distinguishable** | **BETTER** |
+| 3 | `tilt_600` | +0.40 | -11.8 | 8/11 p=0.2266 | 5/15 p=0.3018 | **not distinguishable** | **not distinguishable** |
+| 4 | `tilt_250` | +0.38 | -2.1 | 10/12 p=0.03857 | 7/15 p=1 | **not distinguishable** | **BETTER** |
+
+Reference `tfil`: 114.1 dmg/run, 1.18 wins/run, 17.63% incoming, 394 px.
+
+Highest wins delta: `strafe_325` (+0.58 wins/run, -2.3 dmg/run) — strict: **not distinguishable**, substantive: **BETTER**.
+
+---
+
+## 5. What to try next (rewritten AFTER Batches 1–2 — these are recommendations, not results)
+
+Ranked by value per battle, given what the two batches measured:
+
+1. **The engine is the lever; the range knob is not.** Both batches put the
+   strafe arms 12–19 pp above `tfil` on round-win rate while three different
+   range targets (none/250/600, achieved 415–478 px) made no separable
+   difference. So the next batch should attack the **strafe picker itself**, not
+   the range: `TR_STRAFE_DWELL_MIN/MAX` (reversal frequency), `TR_STRAFE_BAND` +
+   `TR_STRAFE_SPREAD` (how far the picker hedges), `TR_STRAFE_REACH` (line
+   length), `TR_STRAFE_WALL_BIAS`, `TR_STRAFE_WALL_MARGIN`. 3–4 arms, same
+   panel, **one knob family per batch**, and look for a plateau, not a peak.
+2. **The verdict metric for movement is round wins; the mechanism metric is
+   incoming hit rate.** The winner took ~1/3 fewer hits at the same damage
+   output, and round wins in this harness are survival wins. So screen
+   *mechanism* ideas on incoming hit rate (±1 pp is detectable here: MDE 1.3–4.0
+   pp) and only then spend a full panel batch confirming the win effect.
+3. **Do not chase damage.** The one arm that gained damage (`ring`, +31/run,
+   p = 0.007) won *fewer* nominal rounds and took +25 damage/run. A movement arm
+   that raises damage but lowers survival is a loss in disguise — the mirror of
+   the six inverted hit-rate verdicts this project has already paid for.
+4. **`strafe_notilt` is the recommendation to ship-test**, if a shipping
+   decision is ever taken: it has the same win effect as the range-steered
+   config without an extra tuning surface. Shipping is a separate decision —
+   this campaign does not touch a shipped default.
+5. **Then the gun** (the owner's next stage, per the mandate): same harness, same
+   panel or a gun-specific one, same paired-with-sign-test statistics. Two facts
+   for the gun job: (a) round wins here are survival wins, so the gun's job is
+   to *kill*, not merely to out-damage; (b) the panel is 15 opponents wide and
+   its strong dodgers (Diamond 39.5, CassiusClay 73.4, TripHammer 59.5 dmg/run
+   for `tfil`) are exactly the ones a DrussGT-only gun claim will fail against.
+6. **Melee is a different game** (j116's finding): it needs its own panel and its
+   own ledger section; the 1v1 panel's verdicts do not transfer.
+
+## 6. What would make us stop
+
+* **The movement stage has already produced its first winner** (`TR_MOVEMENT=strafe`),
+  and by rule 2 with the substantive reading it beats the shipped default with a
+  margin that survives the between-opponent spread, replicated in two
+  independent sessions. A later job may therefore either (a) keep hunting
+  *within* the strafe picker (item 1 above) and stop as soon as two consecutive
+  batches fail to improve on it beyond the MDE, or (b) declare it the movement
+  answer and move to the gun. **Both are successful outcomes.**
+* **Stop the movement stage entirely** once a batch's best arm cannot beat
+  `strafe` beyond the MDE, or when a movement arm's win gain is bought with a
+  detectable damage or survival loss. At that point *"this is the measured
+  optimum of this design space"* is the conclusion, not a failure.
 * **Stop a single batch early** only for a contract violation (arena not free,
   liveness FAIL, non-zero exit rate) — never because the numbers look boring.
 
-## 6. How to run a batch (exact commands)
+## 7. How to run a batch (exact commands)
 
 ```sh
 # 1. wait for the arena (this job may not be the only one fighting)
@@ -451,9 +750,28 @@ tools/ab/tournament_run.sh \
     --reference tfil \
     --outdir /tmp/ab/j118_b1
 
+# Batch 2 (the range axis on the winning engine) was the same command with
+#   --arms tools/ab/arms_movement_b2.txt --outdir /tmp/ab/j118_b2
+
 # 2. the paired per-opponent table, sign tests, MDE and the pre-registered verdict
 python3 tools/ab/tournament_analyze.py /tmp/ab/j118_b1 --reference tfil
 ```
 
+`--reference` may be ANY arm of the session: re-analyzing `/tmp/ab/j118_b1
+--reference strafe_325` is a free pairwise comparison with no battles (it is how
+the "the two strafe configs are not separable" claim was checked: Δwins +0.04,
+p = 0.75, MDE 0.33).
+
+## 8. Session log (outdirs are in `/tmp` and are NOT committed)
+
+| session | commit | battles | arms | verdict |
+|---|---|---:|---|---|
+| `/tmp/ab/j118_b1` | `1984a78` | 225 (0 invalid) | tfil, strafe_notilt, strafe_325, ring, ring_notemp | strafe_notilt beats tfil on wins (+0.38, 9/9, p=0.0039) |
+| `/tmp/ab/j118_b2` | `8efa627` | 225 (0 invalid) | tfil, strafe_notilt, strafe_325, tilt_600, tilt_250 | all four strafe arms beat tfil on wins (+0.38…+0.58); the range target decides nothing |
+
+Both sessions can be re-analyzed offline at any time (no arena needed) as long as
+`/tmp/ab/j118_b*` still exists; after a reboot only this ledger's tables remain,
+which is why every number is inlined above.
+
 The runner writes `<outdir>/session.json` (commit sha, binary sha256, arms,
 panel) so any later job can re-analyze an old session offline, with no arena.
diff --git a/tools/ab/arms_movement_b2.txt b/tools/ab/arms_movement_b2.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..edb28f2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tools/ab/arms_movement_b2.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
+# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+# arms_movement_b2.txt — BATCH 2: the range axis ON THE WINNING ENGINE.
+#
+# Batch 1 (docs/movement_campaign.md) found that pure perpendicular strafe with
+# the range tilt DISABLED (`strafe_notilt`) beats the shipped `tfil` on round
+# wins across the frozen panel: Δwins/run +0.38 (9/9 decisive opponents,
+# p=0.0039) with no detectable damage cost, and it does so while fighting
+# FARTHER away (456 px vs tfil's 382). The shipped `tfil` came last of five arms
+# on wins. This batch asks the obvious next question:
+#
+#   does the range the mover ends up at drive the win, or is the tilt MECHANISM
+#   itself the cost?
+#
+# `strafe_notilt` has no range control at all and drifts to ~456 px. Re-arming
+# the tilt with a target FAR (600) and NEAR (250) around that emergent 456
+# separates "range value" from "tilt present".
+#
+# Format: name | ENV=value ENV=value | label
+# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+tfil | | shipped baseline, re-measured in this session (replication)
+strafe_notilt | TR_MOVEMENT=strafe TR_STRAFE_RANGE_TOL=999999 | Batch-1 winner, replication
+strafe_325 | TR_MOVEMENT=strafe | strafe default (range 325), replication
+tilt_600 | TR_MOVEMENT=strafe TR_STRAFE_RANGE=600 | tilt ON, target 600 (farther than the emergent 456)
+tilt_250 | TR_MOVEMENT=strafe TR_STRAFE_RANGE=250 | tilt ON, target 250 (much nearer than the emergent 456)