closing j125: verify movement ship end-to-end (clean build SuccessX, full 16-test guard suite all counts match, real default+revert battles) and restructure gun/movement ledgers outcome-first

docs/movement_campaign.md

@@ -57,6 +57,35 @@ intact**; gate v2's pre-registration and results are at the bottom of this file.
 
 ---
 
+## What changed tonight (2026-09-26)
+
+* **SHIPPED:** the default 1v1 movement is now **`TR_MOVEMENT=strafe`** (flipped
+  from `tfil` at `ModularBot_garage/src/ModularBot.nim:118`, commit `3fd6db9`).
+  Gate v2 on **300 fresh battles**: Δwins/run **+0.30**, 95% CI **[+0.02, +0.58]**,
+  sign-flip permutation **p = 0.04517**; cost **−10.97 dmg/run** (CI [−19.87,
+  −2.06]) — *survive far more for slightly less output*, net-positive on the
+  server score (+0.30 wins × 50 survival − 11 damage ≈ +4/run).
+* **NOT shipped, and why:** every other arm on the frozen panel failed to beat
+  `strafe` beyond the MDE (`field_strong` / `field_off` were detectably
+  **worse**); nothing was promoted without replication. Gate **v1** was NOT
+  reinterpreted — it failed its required sign-test leg and the default was *not*
+  flipped until gate v2 passed on genuinely fresh data.
+* **Revert:** `TR_MOVEMENT=tfil` (env only, no rebuild; the bot reports
+  `TR_MOVEMENT = tfil  (source: env)`).
+* **Reproduce the key evidence (one command + the analyzer):**
+  ```sh
+  TOURNAMENT_NIMCACHE=/tmp/nc_j122 \
+  tools/ab/tournament_run.sh \
+      --arms tools/ab/arms_movement_v2.txt \
+      --panel tools/ab/panel_movement.txt \
+      --runs 10 --rounds 3 --conc 6 --wait-arena 45 \
+      --reference tfil \
+      --outdir /tmp/ab/j122_v2
+  python3 tools/ab/tournament_analyze.py /tmp/ab/j122_v2 --reference tfil
+  ```
+
+---
+
 ## Final confirmation + SHIP
 
 > **Provenance.** The ship criterion below was pre-registered and committed in