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Melee vs 1v1 racks: mechanism built, but NO gun-level payoff - do not split

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The user's plan was separate melee and 1v1 racks. The mechanism is built and
committed (TR_RACK_<GUN>=both|1v1|melee|off, mode from server truth). This job
produced the missing evidence: each candidate gun forced ALONE in BOTH modes,
one frozen binary, env-only arms, exact two-sided permutation tests.

1v1 vs the real DrussGT (6 arms x 5 runs x 7 rounds):
  Pattern      10.80%  292 dmg/run   11/35 round wins
  KNN           5.58%  128            1/35
  Linear        2.99%   59            0/35
  Circular      2.89%   60            0/35
  WallBounce    2.72%   57            0/35
  GuessFactor   2.14%   38            0/35
  -> every arm differs from Pattern at p=0.0079 (the 5v5 floor). Per-gun damage
     span 7.7x. In 1v1 the gun matters ENORMOUSLY.

Melee (+DrussGT, RandomMover, WaveSurfer, OscillatorBot; enemyCount 4):
  WallBounce   25.79%  643 dmg/run    7/25
  Linear       24.88%  624            7/25
  GuessFactor  24.48%  613            4/25
  Pattern      24.39%  599            5/25
  Circular     25.88%  596            5/25
  KNN          23.87%  539            3/25
  -> NO arm beats Pattern with significance (p=0.42-0.96, fully overlapping).
     WallBounce's nominal +7.3% is p=0.42. Per-gun damage span only 1.19x.

THE FINDING: in 1v1 the gun matters enormously (7.7x spread); in melee it barely
matters (1.19x). Melee is won by movement, survival and placement, not by which
gun you carry - every candidate lands in the same ~24-26% band. So a separate
melee rack has NO gun-level payoff and DefaultRackMembership stays Pattern-only.
The mechanism remains available if it is ever wanted.

Honest caveats: the melee comparison is UNDER-POWERED at 5 runs (detecting the
~44-damage WallBounce-Pattern gap would need ~2.5-3x the runs), so "no significant
difference" is NOT "no difference"; the only candidate worth re-testing is
WallBounce in melee, and it must not be shipped on this evidence.

SHIM LIMITATION FOUND, worth recording: run_bridge_battle.sh captures with
`--subject DrussGT`, and the shim DROPS every tick once the subject dies - losing
5-20% of ModularBot's shots in melee. The campaign was re-run with
`--subject ModularBot` so ModularBot's events are complete (fires match gun_stats
realShots exactly). Any future melee evidence through this shim must do the same
or it will silently under-count.

Adds docs/melee_vs_1v1_racks.md. No repository source changed.
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Davide Cappellini
2026-09-22 08:08:43 +02:00
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# Separate melee and 1v1 racks: the mechanism is built, the payoff is NOT there
The user's plan: *"separate racks for melee and 1v1, so the bot switches from those based on the
situation, and we can put the guns we want in one or both racks."*
**The mechanism is built and committed** (`TR_RACK_<GUN>=both|1v1|melee|off`, mode from server truth
`getEnemyCount() == 1`). **The measured verdict is: do not populate it differently. Keep Pattern for
both modes.** No split has a gun-level payoff.
## 1v1 — ModularBot vs the real DrussGT (6 arms × 5 runs × 7 rounds)
| arm | real % | **damage/run** | round wins |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| **Pattern** | **10.80** | **292** | **11/35** |
| KNN | 5.58 | 128 | 1/35 |
| Linear | 2.99 | 59 | 0/35 |
| Circular | 2.89 | 60 | 0/35 |
| WallBounce | 2.72 | 57 | 0/35 |
| GuessFactor | 2.14 | 38 | 0/35 |
Every arm differs from Pattern at **p = 0.0079** (the 5v5 permutation floor). Per-gun damage span:
**7.7×**.
## Melee — +DrussGT, RandomMover, WaveSurfer, OscillatorBot (enemyCount 4)
| arm | real % | **damage/run** | round wins |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| WallBounce | 25.79 | 643 | 7/25 |
| Linear | 24.88 | 624 | 7/25 |
| GuessFactor | 24.48 | 613 | 4/25 |
| **Pattern** | 24.39 | **599** | 5/25 |
| Circular | 25.88 | 596 | 5/25 |
| KNN | 23.87 | 539 | 3/25 |
**No arm beats Pattern with significance** (p = 0.42–0.96, fully overlapping per-run ranges).
WallBounce's nominal +7.3% damage is p=0.42 — not a result. Per-gun damage span: **1.19×**.
## The finding
**In 1v1 the gun matters enormously (7.7× spread); in melee it barely matters (1.19×).** Melee is won
by movement, survival and placement, not by which gun you carry — every candidate lands in the same
~24–26% band. So a separate melee rack has no gun-level payoff, and `DefaultRackMembership` stays
Pattern-only.
Caveats, stated honestly:
- The melee comparison is **underpowered** at 5 runs: detecting the observed ~44 damage WallBounce–Pattern
gap would need ~2.5–3× the runs. **"No significant difference" is not "no difference."** If this is
ever revisited, the only candidate worth re-testing is WallBounce in melee
(`TR_RACK_PATTERN=1v1 TR_RACK_WALLBOUNCE=melee`, all else `off`) — but do not ship it on this evidence.
- **Shim limitation found:** `run_bridge_battle.sh` captures with `--subject DrussGT`, and the shim
DROPS every tick once the subject dies — losing 5–20% of ModularBot's shots in melee. The melee
campaign was re-run with `--subject ModularBot` so ModularBot's own events are complete (fires match
`gun_stats` realShots exactly). Any future melee evidence through this shim must use
`--subject ModularBot`, or it will silently under-count.