diff --git a/docs/movement_campaign.md b/docs/movement_campaign.md
index bc1c639..364235e 100644
--- a/docs/movement_campaign.md
+++ b/docs/movement_campaign.md
@@ -1992,6 +1992,14 @@ intervention; (ii) that the small live hit-rate gain is the same mechanism the
 offline gate measured; (iii) that the win leg is unresolvable rather than
 absent — the CI is wide on both sides.
 
+**PREDICTION RECORDED AS PARTLY WRONG.** The pre-registration predicted that
+`learned` would NOT beat `strafe` on wins (CORRECT), that its hit rate would be
+within noise of `strafe`'s (CORRECT: −1.01 pp, CI [−3.26, +1.23]), and that
+`learned` ≈ `learned_global` (CORRECT on wins, −0.02; **WRONG on the hit rate**:
+−1.31 pp, CI [−2.58, −0.05], p = 0.044 — the state conditioning does dodge
+better than the same mover without it). The prediction was right about the
+score and wrong about the mechanism.
+
 **Recommended follow-up (not done, not scheduled):** label by OUTCOME. A
 counted+decayed SBC over (state, candidate bin) labelled HIT/MISS estimates
 P(hit | state, bin) directly — the quantity the mover should minimise and the