From a5c893ace64be97aaf2d0b25c40969044940940c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Davide Cappellini Date: Sat, 26 Sep 2026 10:56:02 +0200 Subject: [PATCH] learned movement: record the pre-registered prediction as partly wrong (right on wins, wrong on the hit-rate mechanism) --- docs/movement_campaign.md | 8 ++++++++ 1 file changed, 8 insertions(+) diff --git a/docs/movement_campaign.md b/docs/movement_campaign.md index bc1c639..364235e 100644 --- a/docs/movement_campaign.md +++ b/docs/movement_campaign.md @@ -1992,6 +1992,14 @@ intervention; (ii) that the small live hit-rate gain is the same mechanism the offline gate measured; (iii) that the win leg is unresolvable rather than absent — the CI is wide on both sides. +**PREDICTION RECORDED AS PARTLY WRONG.** The pre-registration predicted that +`learned` would NOT beat `strafe` on wins (CORRECT), that its hit rate would be +within noise of `strafe`'s (CORRECT: −1.01 pp, CI [−3.26, +1.23]), and that +`learned` ≈ `learned_global` (CORRECT on wins, −0.02; **WRONG on the hit rate**: +−1.31 pp, CI [−2.58, −0.05], p = 0.044 — the state conditioning does dodge +better than the same mover without it). The prediction was right about the +score and wrong about the mechanism. + **Recommended follow-up (not done, not scheduled):** label by OUTCOME. A counted+decayed SBC over (state, candidate bin) labelled HIT/MISS estimates P(hit | state, bin) directly — the quantity the mover should minimise and the