j131 learned movement: real bullet-endpoint resolution (TR_LEARNED_REAL_EVENTS, default off) + exact-geometry Gate A/B (inversion NOT fixed; state still the constraint)
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#!/usr/bin/env python3
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"""Exact-geometry Gate A/B for the learned movement (job j131).
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Question: does labelling/resolving a wave by the REAL bullet endpoint (the
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exact origin->endpoint straight line, available live from `onHitByBullet` and
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from a bullet-vs-bullet intercept) fix the danger-map inversion that j128
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measured with the histogram label (`corr = -0.342`) and that j130 replaced with
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a suspicious live-computable proxy (`corr = +0.566`)?
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This is the SAME corpus, SAME per-shot extraction and SAME metric as
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`outcome_label_gate.py` (which job j130 used), so the three danger maps are
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computed under ONE consistent computation and are directly comparable:
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(a) histogram label danger(g) = P(arrival bin = g) (j128)
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(b) outcome proxy label danger(g) = P(hit and |g - b_our| <= w) (j130 live)
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(c) EXACT bullet line danger(g) = P(|g - b_bullet| <= w) (this job)
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`b_our` is the GF of OUR position at the nominal arrival tick; `b_bullet` is
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the GF of the bullet's own straight line (from the recorded fire direction -
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exactly the line the real endpoint would give). `w` is the body half-width as an
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angle, in bins. Both correlations use the SAME realised per-bin hit rate
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`P(hit | b_our = g)` (the j128 metric), and a second, bullet-conditioned target
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is printed as a cross-check.
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Gate B: held-out per-candidate log-loss of the EXACT (bullet-line) label,
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state-conditional vs state-free, the same measurement j130 ran for its proxy.
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Run:
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python3 common_libs/tests/exact_geometry_gate.py \
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--corpus /tmp/tfil_ab2/out \
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--report common_libs/tests/fixtures/exact_geometry_gate_report.txt
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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import argparse
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import os
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import statistics
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import sys
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sys.path.insert(0, os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)))
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import outcome_label_gate as olg # validated extraction + metric
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import analyze_drussgt_dodge_vs_power as adp
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NBINS = olg.NBINS
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def p_hist(recs, b):
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return sum(1 for r in recs if r["b_our"] == b) / len(recs)
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def p_proxy(recs, b):
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"""j130 live label: P(hit and |b - b_our| <= w)."""
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return statistics.fmean(1 if (r["hit"] >= 0.5 and abs(b - r["b_our"]) <= r["w"])
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else 0 for r in recs)
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def p_exact(recs, b):
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"""Exact bullet-line label: P(|b - b_bullet| <= w)."""
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return statistics.fmean(1 if abs(b - r["b_bullet"]) <= r["w"] else 0
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for r in recs)
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def p_exact_hit(recs, b):
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"""Exact bullet-line AND hit: P(hit and |b - b_bullet| <= w)."""
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return statistics.fmean(1 if (r["hit"] >= 0.5 and abs(b - r["b_bullet"]) <= r["w"])
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else 0 for r in recs)
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def correlations(recs):
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n = [0] * NBINS
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h = [0] * NBINS
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for r in recs:
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n[r["b_our"]] += 1
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h[r["b_our"]] += r["hit"]
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used = [b for b in range(NBINS) if n[b] > 0]
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rate_our = [h[b] / n[b] for b in used]
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nb = [0] * NBINS
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hb = [0] * NBINS
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for r in recs:
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nb[r["b_bullet"]] += 1
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hb[r["b_bullet"]] += r["hit"]
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usedb = [b for b in range(NBINS) if nb[b] > 0]
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rate_bullet = [hb[b] / nb[b] for b in usedb]
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maps = {
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"histogram (j128): P(arrival = g)": [p_hist(recs, b) for b in used],
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"outcome proxy (j130 live): P(hit & |g-b_our|<=w)": [p_proxy(recs, b) for b in used],
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"EXACT bullet line: P(|g-b_bullet|<=w)": [p_exact(recs, b) for b in used],
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"EXACT bullet line & hit: P(hit & |g-b_bullet|<=w)": [p_exact_hit(recs, b) for b in used],
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}
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out = {}
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for name, d in maps.items():
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out[name] = (statistics.correlation(d, rate_our),
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statistics.correlation([d[used.index(b)] if b in used else 0.0
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for b in usedb], rate_bullet))
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return out, used, rate_our, usedb, rate_bullet
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def run_split_exact(recs, seed, decay=128, shift=1):
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tr_b, te_b = olg.split_battles({r["battle"] for r in recs}, seed)
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tr = [r for r in recs if r["battle"] in tr_b]
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te = [r for r in recs if r["battle"] in te_b]
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edges = dict(olg.CANON)
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om = olg.OutcomeModel(decay, shift, state_free=False)
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om0 = olg.OutcomeModel(decay, shift, state_free=True)
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for r in tr:
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st = olg.code_of(r, edges)
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for g in range(NBINS):
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lab = 1 if (r["hit"] >= 0.5 and abs(g - r["b_bullet"]) <= r["w"]) else 0
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om.learn(st, g, lab)
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om0.learn(st, g, lab)
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ll_s, ll_g, hit_out = [], [], []
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for r in te:
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st = olg.code_of(r, edges)
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go = min(range(NBINS), key=lambda g: om.predict_hit(st, g))
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real = lambda g: 1 if abs(g - r["b_bullet"]) <= r["w"] else 0
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hit_out.append(real(go))
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for g in range(NBINS):
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y = 1 if (r["hit"] >= 0.5 and abs(g - r["b_bullet"]) <= r["w"]) else 0
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ll_s.append(-olg.log2(om.predict_hit(st, g)) if y
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else -olg.log2(1.0 - om.predict_hit(st, g)))
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ll_g.append(-olg.log2(om0.predict_hit(st, g)) if y
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else -olg.log2(1.0 - om0.predict_hit(st, g)))
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return dict(seed=seed,
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ll_state=statistics.fmean(ll_s),
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ll_statefree=statistics.fmean(ll_g),
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delta=statistics.fmean([a - b for a, b in zip(ll_s, ll_g)]),
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hit_out=statistics.fmean(hit_out))
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def main():
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ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
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ap.add_argument("--corpus", default="/tmp/tfil_ab2/out")
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ap.add_argument("--report", default=None)
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ap.add_argument("--seeds", type=int, default=3)
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args = ap.parse_args()
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runs = adp.discover_tfil(args.corpus)
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recs = olg.extract(runs)
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lines = []
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def out(s=""):
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print(s)
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lines.append(s)
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out("# Exact-geometry Gate A/B — learned movement (job j131)")
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out()
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out(f"corpus : {args.corpus}")
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out(f"battles : {len(runs)}")
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out(f"shots : {len(recs)}")
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out(f"base hit : {statistics.fmean(r['hit'] for r in recs)*100:.2f}%")
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out("state : vlat, dist, room, turn (module's 4 fields, canonical edges)")
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out()
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corr, used, rate_our, usedb, rate_bullet = correlations(recs)
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out("## A. danger-map alignment (ONE consistent computation)")
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out()
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out("corr( danger(g) , P(hit | b_our = g) ) [the j128 metric, = -0.342 hist]")
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out("corr( danger(g) , P(hit | b_bullet = g) ) [same danger, bullet-conditioned target]")
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out()
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out("| danger map | corr vs P(hit\\|b_our=g) | corr vs P(hit\\|b_bullet=g) |")
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out("|---|---:|---:|")
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for name, (c_our, c_bul) in corr.items():
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out(f"| {name} | {c_our:+.3f} | {c_bul:+.3f} |")
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out()
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out("Negative = minimising the danger steers INTO where the observed hits")
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out("happen (the j128 defect). The exact bullet line is the physically")
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out("correct 'would this wave hit me at g' map; if its correlation is still")
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out("negative, exact geometry does NOT fix the inversion.")
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out()
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out("| bin | P(hit\\|b_our) | P(hit\\|b_bullet) | hist danger | proxy danger | exact danger |")
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out("|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|")
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rb = {b: rate_bullet[usedb.index(b)] for b in usedb}
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for b in used:
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rb_str = f"{rb[b]*100:.1f}%" if b in rb else "—"
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out(f"| {b} | {rate_our[used.index(b)]*100:.1f}% | "
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f"{rb_str} | "
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f"{p_hist(recs, b):.3f} | {p_proxy(recs, b):.3f} | {p_exact(recs, b):.3f} |")
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out()
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per = [run_split_exact(recs, s) for s in range(args.seeds)]
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ll_s = statistics.fmean(p["ll_state"] for p in per)
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ll_g = statistics.fmean(p["ll_statefree"] for p in per)
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out("## B. state-conditional information under the EXACT bullet-line label")
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out()
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out("held-out per-candidate log-loss (bits) of the exact label, "
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"state-conditional vs state-free (same rows, same split):")
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out()
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out("| model | log-loss (bits) |")
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out("|---|---:|")
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out(f"| state-free P(label | g) | {ll_g:.4f} |")
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out(f"| state-conditional P(label | state, g) | {ll_s:.4f} |")
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out(f"| Δ (state − state-free) | {ll_s - ll_g:+.4f} |")
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out()
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neg = sum(1 for p in per if p["delta"] < 0)
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out(f"state conditioning is better in {neg}/{len(per)} splits "
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f"(negative Δ = better).")
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out()
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out("## C. open-loop decision counterfactual (VETO ONLY)")
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out()
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out("argmin_g danger with the recorded bullet line as ground truth:")
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out()
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out(f"| exact-label argmin (j131) | "
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f"{statistics.fmean(p['hit_out'] for p in per)*100:.2f}% |")
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out()
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out("## MEASURED vs INFERRED")
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out()
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out("* MEASURED: every number above, on the recorded corpus.")
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out("* INFERRED: that an offline alignment transfers live — it cannot, the")
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out(" corpus is open loop (`docs/offline_harness_trust.md`).")
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if args.report:
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os.makedirs(os.path.dirname(args.report), exist_ok=True)
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with open(args.report, "w") as f:
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f.write("\n".join(lines) + "\n")
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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main()
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