MELEE A/B: BitBrain vs shipped Pattern rack — repo's first melee measurement (null)

Adds common_libs/tests/measure_melee_bitbrain_ab.nim (+ .sh driver, .py analyzer,
committed per-run fixtures) and docs/melee_bitbrain_ab.md.

Experiment: 4-bot Free-For-All (ModularBot + WaveSurfer + PatternMover +
RandomMover), 4 arms x 16 runs x 7 rounds, frozen ModularBot from git archive
HEAD (commit 0f5cfe3, binary 11bba27), shipped tfil movement in every run.
Arms differ only in the gun rack: pattern (shipped), bb_round, bb_ret, bb_learn.

Result: NOT DETECTABLE. Score (server round score = damage + survival bonus)
differs by -63..+33 pts (perm p=0.16-0.71) against an MDE of 151 (~5.1%).
Every arm finishes rank 1. Round wins hint BitBrain's way (112/112 and 111/112
vs 109/112) but p=0.225 (MW 0.080), half the 0.40-win MDE.

Liveness proven: rack boot lines flip (rack active melee = PATTERN / BITBRAIN),
every run faced 3 distinct targets and ~66-69 target changes, and the bb arms
logged one [bb-reset] reason=target_change per switch. The melee premise was
exercised; the fast adaptation bought no measurable score edge at this sample.

common_libs/tests/analyze_melee_ab.py

@@ -0,0 +1,215 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""analyze_melee_ab.py — analyze a melee A/B session produced by
+common_libs/tests/measure_melee_bitbrain_ab.nim (+ run_melee_bitbrain_ab.sh).
+
+    python3 common_libs/tests/analyze_melee_ab.py <outdir> [--reference ARM]
+
+Melee scoring caveat: a round score (and the run `totalScore`) is the SERVER's
+round score = damage dealt + the survival bonus; it is not raw damage. Per-round
+placement is the 1..N rank in that round. `firstPlaces` is the count of rounds
+won (rank 1) and `survivalCount` the total ticks survived.
+
+Statistics are reused verbatim from tools/ab/ab_analyze.py (MC permutation test
++ Mann-Whitney U + MDE), so the melee numbers use the same machinery as the 1v1
+A/Bs. All tests are two-sided on PER-RUN values.
+"""
+import glob
+import importlib.util
+import json
+import math
+import os
+import statistics
+import sys
+
+REPO = os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))))
+_AB = os.path.join(REPO, "tools", "ab", "ab_analyze.py")
+_spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location("ab_analyze", _AB)
+ab = importlib.util.module_from_spec(_spec)
+_spec.loader.exec_module(ab)
+
+
+def load_runs(outdir, arm):
+    runs = []
+    for p in sorted(glob.glob(os.path.join(outdir, arm, "run*.json"))):
+        try:
+            d = json.load(open(p))
+        except (OSError, json.JSONDecodeError):
+            continue
+        if not d.get("ok"):
+            continue
+        mb = d.get("modularbot", {})
+        pr = d.get("perRound", [])
+        ranks = [r["rank"] for r in pr]
+        runs.append({
+            "run": d["run"],
+            "wins": mb.get("firstPlaces", 0),
+            "rounds": d.get("rounds", len(pr)),
+            "score": mb.get("totalScore", 0),
+            "survival": mb.get("survivalCount", 0),
+            "rank": mb.get("rank", 0),
+            "mean_rank": (sum(ranks) / len(ranks)) if ranks else float("nan"),
+            "field_score": sum(f.get("totalScore", 0) for f in d.get("field", [])),
+            "live": d.get("live", {}),
+        })
+    return runs
+
+
+def score_share(r):
+    tot = r["score"] + r["field_score"]
+    return r["score"] / tot if tot else float("nan")
+
+
+def fmt(xs, width=5):
+    return " ".join(f"{x:>{width}g}" for x in xs)
+
+
+def main():
+    args = sys.argv[1:]
+    if not args:
+        print(__doc__)
+        return 2
+    outdir = args[0]
+    reference = "pattern"
+    if "--reference" in args:
+        reference = args[args.index("--reference") + 1]
+    arms = [d for d in sorted(os.listdir(outdir))
+            if os.path.isdir(os.path.join(outdir, d)) and load_runs(outdir, d)]
+    if reference not in arms:
+        print(f"ERROR: reference '{reference}' not among {arms}", file=sys.stderr)
+        return 2
+
+    data = {a: load_runs(outdir, a) for a in arms}
+
+    print(f"# melee A/B session: {outdir}")
+    print(f"# arms: {', '.join(arms)}   reference: {reference}")
+    # commit / binary sha
+    anyj = glob.glob(os.path.join(outdir, reference, "run*.json"))
+    if anyj:
+        d0 = json.load(open(sorted(anyj)[0]))
+        print(f"# commit={d0.get('commit')} binary_sha256={d0.get('binary_sha256')}")
+    print()
+
+    print("ARM SUMMARY  (melee: score=server round score dmg+survival bonus)")
+    hdr = (f"{'arm':<10} {'runs':>4} {'wins/rd':>9} {'score':>8} "
+           f"{'surv':>7} {'rank':>5} {'meanrank':>9} {'score share':>11} "
+           f"{'targets':>8} {'tchanges':>9}")
+    print(hdr)
+    print("-" * len(hdr))
+    for a in arms:
+        rs = data[a]
+        n = len(rs)
+        wins = sum(r["wins"] for r in rs)
+        rounds = sum(r["rounds"] for r in rs)
+        sc = statistics.mean(r["score"] for r in rs)
+        sv = statistics.mean(r["survival"] for r in rs)
+        rk = statistics.mean(r["rank"] for r in rs)
+        mr = statistics.mean(r["mean_rank"] for r in rs)
+        ss = statistics.mean(score_share(r) for r in rs)
+        tg = statistics.mean(r["live"].get("distinct_targets", 0) for r in rs)
+        tc = statistics.mean(r["live"].get("target_changes", 0) for r in rs)
+        print(f"{a:<10} {n:>4} {str(wins)+'/'+str(rounds):>9} {sc:>8.0f} "
+              f"{sv:>7.0f} {rk:>5.2f} {mr:>9.3f} {ss*100:>10.1f}% "
+              f"{tg:>8.2f} {tc:>9.2f}")
+
+    print("\nPER-RUN VALUES (never just the mean)")
+    for a in arms:
+        rs = data[a]
+        print(f"  {a:<10} wins:  " + " ".join(f"r{r['run']}={r['wins']}" for r in rs))
+        print(f"  {'':<10} score: " + " ".join(f"r{r['run']}={r['score']}" for r in rs))
+        print(f"  {'':<10} surv:  " + " ".join(f"r{r['run']}={r['survival']}" for r in rs))
+        print(f"  {'':<10} mrank: " + " ".join(f"r{r['run']}={r['mean_rank']:.2f}" for r in rs))
+
+    metrics = [("score", "score"), ("survival", "survival"),
+               ("wins", "wins"), ("mean_rank", "mean_rank"),
+               ("rank", "rank"), ("score_share", "__share__")]
+
+    def vals(a, key, f):
+        if key == "__share__":
+            return [score_share(r) for r in data[a]]
+        return [r[key] for r in data[a]]
+
+    print("\nPAIRWISE PERMUTATION TEST (per-run) + MANN-WHITNEY CROSS-CHECK")
+    print(f"  perm: exact when C(n,na) <= {ab.EXACT_CAP:,}; else Monte-Carlo "
+          f"{ab.MC_DRAWS:,} draws seed={ab.MC_SEED:#x}")
+    hdr = (f"{'metric':<12} {'A':<10} {'B':<10} {'diff(A-B)':>11} "
+           f"{'perm p':>9} {'method':<12} {'MW p':>9} {'MW U':>8}")
+    print(hdr)
+    print("-" * len(hdr))
+    for label, key in metrics:
+        for a in arms:
+            if a == reference:
+                continue
+            xa = vals(reference, key, None)
+            xb = vals(a, key, None)
+            res = ab.perm_test(xa, xb)
+            mw = ab.mannwhitney_p(xa, xb)
+            if res is None:
+                continue
+            mstr = ("exact" if res["method"] == "exact"
+                    else f"MC/B={res['draws']:,}")
+            mwp = f"{mw[0]:.4f}" if mw else "n/a"
+            mwu = f"{mw[1]:.1f}" if mw else "n/a"
+            print(f"{label:<12} {reference:<10} {a:<10} {res['signed']:>+11.4f} "
+                  f"{res['p']:>9.4f} {mstr:<12} {mwp:>9} {mwu:>8}")
+
+    print("\nMINIMUM DETECTABLE EFFECT (two-sample, alpha=0.05 two-sided, "
+          "80% power; MDE = 2.8016*sd*sqrt(2/n))")
+    print(f"{'metric':<12} {'n/arm':>6} {'sd(ref)':>9} {'MDE':>10} {'ref mean':>10}")
+    print("-" * 52)
+    for label, key in [("score", "score"), ("survival", "survival"),
+                       ("wins", "wins"), ("mean_rank", "mean_rank")]:
+        xa = vals(reference, key, None)
+        if len(xa) < 2:
+            continue
+        sd = statistics.stdev(xa)
+        mde = ab.min_detectable_effect(sd, len(xa))
+        print(f"{label:<12} {len(xa):>6} {sd:>9.2f} {mde:>10.2f} {statistics.mean(xa):>10.3f}")
+
+    print("\nLIVENESS (per arm, from the bot's own boot report + log)")
+    print(f"{'arm':<10} {'rack_melee':>11} {'mem':>9} {'targets':>8} "
+          f"{'tchanges':>9} {'bb-reset':>9} {'OK':>4}")
+    for a in arms:
+        rs = data[a]
+        racks = {r["live"].get("rack_active_melee", "?") for r in rs}
+        mems = {r["live"].get("env_TR_BITBRAIN_MEM", "?") for r in rs}
+        tgt = statistics.mean(r["live"].get("distinct_targets", 0) for r in rs)
+        tch = statistics.mean(r["live"].get("target_changes", 0) for r in rs)
+        rst = statistics.mean(r["live"].get("bb_reset_target_change", 0) for r in rs)
+        if a == reference:
+            ok = all(r["live"].get("rack_active_melee") == "PATTERN"
+                     and r["live"].get("env_TR_RACK_BITBRAIN") == "off"
+                     and r["live"].get("bb_reset_target_change", -1) == 0
+                     for r in rs)
+        else:
+            ok = all(r["live"].get("rack_active_melee") == "BITBRAIN"
+                     and r["live"].get("env_TR_RACK_PATTERN") == "off"
+                     and r["live"].get("env_TR_RACK_BITBRAIN") == "melee"
+                     and r["live"].get("bb_reset_target_change", 0) > 0
+                     for r in rs)
+        print(f"{a:<10} {','.join(sorted(racks)):>11} {','.join(sorted(mems)):>9} "
+              f"{tgt:>8.2f} {tch:>9.2f} {rst:>9.2f} {'yes' if ok else 'NO':>4}")
+
+    # machine-readable dump for the doc
+    dump = {"reference": reference, "arms": {}}
+    for a in arms:
+        rs = data[a]
+        dump["arms"][a] = {
+            "n": len(rs),
+            "wins": [r["wins"] for r in rs],
+            "rounds": [r["rounds"] for r in rs],
+            "score": [r["score"] for r in rs],
+            "survival": [r["survival"] for r in rs],
+            "mean_rank": [round(r["mean_rank"], 4) for r in rs],
+            "rack_melee": [r["live"].get("rack_active_melee") for r in rs],
+            "target_changes": [r["live"].get("target_changes") for r in rs],
+            "distinct_targets": [r["live"].get("distinct_targets") for r in rs],
+            "bb_reset": [r["live"].get("bb_reset_target_change") for r in rs],
+        }
+    with open(os.path.join(outdir, "analysis.json"), "w") as fh:
+        json.dump(dump, fh, indent=1)
+    print(f"\n# machine-readable: {os.path.join(outdir, 'analysis.json')}")
+    return 0
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    sys.exit(main())

common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab/analysis.json

@@ -0,0 +1,665 @@
+{
+ "reference": "pattern",
+ "arms": {
+  "bb_learn": {
+   "n": 16,
+   "wins": [
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7
+   ],
+   "rounds": [
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7
+   ],
+   "score": [
+    2883,
+    2757,
+    2906,
+    3145,
+    2911,
+    3068,
+    2758,
+    2715,
+    3107,
+    2848,
+    3190,
+    2912,
+    2859,
+    3092,
+    2907,
+    3066
+   ],
+   "survival": [
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050
+   ],
+   "mean_rank": [
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0
+   ],
+   "rack_melee": [
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN"
+   ],
+   "target_changes": [
+    63,
+    68,
+    68,
+    72,
+    80,
+    55,
+    58,
+    77,
+    78,
+    72,
+    66,
+    62,
+    62,
+    64,
+    60,
+    63
+   ],
+   "distinct_targets": [
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3
+   ],
+   "bb_reset": [
+    63,
+    68,
+    68,
+    72,
+    80,
+    55,
+    58,
+    77,
+    78,
+    72,
+    66,
+    62,
+    62,
+    64,
+    60,
+    63
+   ]
+  },
+  "bb_ret": {
+   "n": 16,
+   "wins": [
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7
+   ],
+   "rounds": [
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7
+   ],
+   "score": [
+    2891,
+    2770,
+    2792,
+    2934,
+    2943,
+    2890,
+    2817,
+    2999,
+    2994,
+    2913,
+    2920,
+    2890,
+    3011,
+    2945,
+    2943,
+    2802
+   ],
+   "survival": [
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1000,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050
+   ],
+   "mean_rank": [
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0
+   ],
+   "rack_melee": [
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN"
+   ],
+   "target_changes": [
+    60,
+    67,
+    73,
+    54,
+    63,
+    70,
+    83,
+    65,
+    73,
+    71,
+    55,
+    82,
+    74,
+    84,
+    56,
+    59
+   ],
+   "distinct_targets": [
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3
+   ],
+   "bb_reset": [
+    62,
+    67,
+    73,
+    54,
+    63,
+    70,
+    83,
+    65,
+    73,
+    71,
+    55,
+    82,
+    74,
+    84,
+    56,
+    59
+   ]
+  },
+  "bb_round": {
+   "n": 16,
+   "wins": [
+    7,
+    6,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7
+   ],
+   "rounds": [
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7
+   ],
+   "score": [
+    3040,
+    2944,
+    3125,
+    3110,
+    3037,
+    2993,
+    2985,
+    2842,
+    2835,
+    3045,
+    3180,
+    2952,
+    3126,
+    2927,
+    3021,
+    2804
+   ],
+   "survival": [
+    1050,
+    900,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    950
+   ],
+   "mean_rank": [
+    1.0,
+    1.1429,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0
+   ],
+   "rack_melee": [
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN",
+    "BITBRAIN"
+   ],
+   "target_changes": [
+    62,
+    60,
+    81,
+    62,
+    69,
+    61,
+    73,
+    70,
+    67,
+    63,
+    66,
+    70,
+    71,
+    75,
+    83,
+    67
+   ],
+   "distinct_targets": [
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3
+   ],
+   "bb_reset": [
+    62,
+    60,
+    81,
+    62,
+    69,
+    61,
+    73,
+    70,
+    67,
+    63,
+    66,
+    70,
+    71,
+    75,
+    83,
+    67
+   ]
+  },
+  "pattern": {
+   "n": 16,
+   "wins": [
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    6,
+    7,
+    6,
+    7,
+    6,
+    7,
+    7
+   ],
+   "rounds": [
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7,
+    7
+   ],
+   "score": [
+    3082,
+    2795,
+    2897,
+    2915,
+    3176,
+    2922,
+    2860,
+    2878,
+    3261,
+    2957,
+    3106,
+    2869,
+    3194,
+    2728,
+    2869,
+    2931
+   ],
+   "survival": [
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    950,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1000,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    1050,
+    900,
+    1050,
+    1050
+   ],
+   "mean_rank": [
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0,
+    1.0
+   ],
+   "rack_melee": [
+    "PATTERN",
+    "PATTERN",
+    "PATTERN",
+    "PATTERN",
+    "PATTERN",
+    "PATTERN",
+    "PATTERN",
+    "PATTERN",
+    "PATTERN",
+    "PATTERN",
+    "PATTERN",
+    "PATTERN",
+    "PATTERN",
+    "PATTERN",
+    "PATTERN",
+    "PATTERN"
+   ],
+   "target_changes": [
+    66,
+    56,
+    73,
+    77,
+    53,
+    67,
+    67,
+    69,
+    79,
+    67,
+    51,
+    51,
+    67,
+    64,
+    81,
+    75
+   ],
+   "distinct_targets": [
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3,
+    3
+   ],
+   "bb_reset": [
+    0,
+    0,
+    0,
+    0,
+    0,
+    0,
+    0,
+    0,
+    0,
+    0,
+    0,
+    0,
+    0,
+    0,
+    0,
+    0
+   ]
+  }
+ }
+}

common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab/analysis_report.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,69 @@
+# melee A/B session: common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab
+# arms: bb_learn, bb_ret, bb_round, pattern   reference: pattern
+# commit=0f5cfe37b24952ae07fee0a7db526317ae127e6c binary_sha256=11bba2735413bc35ab3b61ead711c51d2223183ad9da510799bc7d76b99b22ca
+
+ARM SUMMARY  (melee: score=server round score dmg+survival bonus)
+arm        runs   wins/rd    score    surv  rank  meanrank score share  targets  tchanges
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+bb_learn     16   112/112     2945    1050  1.00     1.000       60.2%     3.00     66.75
+bb_ret       16   112/112     2903    1047  1.00     1.000       59.4%     3.00     68.06
+bb_round     16   111/112     2998    1034  1.00     1.009       60.8%     3.00     68.75
+pattern      16   109/112     2965    1031  1.00     1.000       59.5%     3.00     66.44
+
+PER-RUN VALUES (never just the mean)
+  bb_learn   wins:  r1=7 r10=7 r11=7 r12=7 r13=7 r14=7 r15=7 r16=7 r2=7 r3=7 r4=7 r5=7 r6=7 r7=7 r8=7 r9=7
+             score: r1=2883 r10=2757 r11=2906 r12=3145 r13=2911 r14=3068 r15=2758 r16=2715 r2=3107 r3=2848 r4=3190 r5=2912 r6=2859 r7=3092 r8=2907 r9=3066
+             surv:  r1=1050 r10=1050 r11=1050 r12=1050 r13=1050 r14=1050 r15=1050 r16=1050 r2=1050 r3=1050 r4=1050 r5=1050 r6=1050 r7=1050 r8=1050 r9=1050
+             mrank: r1=1.00 r10=1.00 r11=1.00 r12=1.00 r13=1.00 r14=1.00 r15=1.00 r16=1.00 r2=1.00 r3=1.00 r4=1.00 r5=1.00 r6=1.00 r7=1.00 r8=1.00 r9=1.00
+  bb_ret     wins:  r1=7 r10=7 r11=7 r12=7 r13=7 r14=7 r15=7 r16=7 r2=7 r3=7 r4=7 r5=7 r6=7 r7=7 r8=7 r9=7
+             score: r1=2891 r10=2770 r11=2792 r12=2934 r13=2943 r14=2890 r15=2817 r16=2999 r2=2994 r3=2913 r4=2920 r5=2890 r6=3011 r7=2945 r8=2943 r9=2802
+             surv:  r1=1050 r10=1050 r11=1050 r12=1050 r13=1050 r14=1050 r15=1050 r16=1050 r2=1050 r3=1050 r4=1050 r5=1000 r6=1050 r7=1050 r8=1050 r9=1050
+             mrank: r1=1.00 r10=1.00 r11=1.00 r12=1.00 r13=1.00 r14=1.00 r15=1.00 r16=1.00 r2=1.00 r3=1.00 r4=1.00 r5=1.00 r6=1.00 r7=1.00 r8=1.00 r9=1.00
+  bb_round   wins:  r1=7 r10=6 r11=7 r12=7 r13=7 r14=7 r15=7 r16=7 r2=7 r3=7 r4=7 r5=7 r6=7 r7=7 r8=7 r9=7
+             score: r1=3040 r10=2944 r11=3125 r12=3110 r13=3037 r14=2993 r15=2985 r16=2842 r2=2835 r3=3045 r4=3180 r5=2952 r6=3126 r7=2927 r8=3021 r9=2804
+             surv:  r1=1050 r10=900 r11=1050 r12=1050 r13=1050 r14=1050 r15=1050 r16=1050 r2=1050 r3=1050 r4=1050 r5=1050 r6=1050 r7=1050 r8=1050 r9=950
+             mrank: r1=1.00 r10=1.14 r11=1.00 r12=1.00 r13=1.00 r14=1.00 r15=1.00 r16=1.00 r2=1.00 r3=1.00 r4=1.00 r5=1.00 r6=1.00 r7=1.00 r8=1.00 r9=1.00
+  pattern    wins:  r1=7 r10=7 r11=7 r12=7 r13=7 r14=7 r15=7 r16=7 r2=7 r3=6 r4=7 r5=6 r6=7 r7=6 r8=7 r9=7
+             score: r1=3082 r10=2795 r11=2897 r12=2915 r13=3176 r14=2922 r15=2860 r16=2878 r2=3261 r3=2957 r4=3106 r5=2869 r6=3194 r7=2728 r8=2869 r9=2931
+             surv:  r1=1050 r10=1050 r11=1050 r12=1050 r13=1050 r14=950 r15=1050 r16=1050 r2=1050 r3=1000 r4=1050 r5=1050 r6=1050 r7=900 r8=1050 r9=1050
+             mrank: r1=1.00 r10=1.00 r11=1.00 r12=1.00 r13=1.00 r14=1.00 r15=1.00 r16=1.00 r2=1.00 r3=1.00 r4=1.00 r5=1.00 r6=1.00 r7=1.00 r8=1.00 r9=1.00
+
+PAIRWISE PERMUTATION TEST (per-run) + MANN-WHITNEY CROSS-CHECK
+  perm: exact when C(n,na) <= 20,000,000; else Monte-Carlo 1,000,000 draws seed=0x5eed5eed
+metric       A          B            diff(A-B)    perm p method            MW p     MW U
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
+score        pattern    bb_learn      +19.7500    0.7117 MC/B=1,000,000    0.6109    114.0
+score        pattern    bb_ret        +61.6250    0.1594 MC/B=1,000,000    0.5590    112.0
+score        pattern    bb_round      -32.8750    0.4900 MC/B=1,000,000    0.3365    102.0
+survival     pattern    bb_learn      -18.7500    0.2254 MC/B=1,000,000    0.0800    104.0
+survival     pattern    bb_ret        -15.6250    0.3507 MC/B=1,000,000    0.2791    111.0
+survival     pattern    bb_round       -3.1250    1.0000 MC/B=1,000,000    0.6982    121.0
+wins         pattern    bb_learn       -0.1875    0.2251 MC/B=1,000,000    0.0795    104.0
+wins         pattern    bb_ret         -0.1875    0.2251 MC/B=1,000,000    0.0795    104.0
+wins         pattern    bb_round       -0.1250    0.5984 MC/B=1,000,000    0.3080    112.0
+mean_rank    pattern    bb_learn       +0.0000    1.0000 MC/B=1,000,000    1.0000    128.0
+mean_rank    pattern    bb_ret         +0.0000    1.0000 MC/B=1,000,000    1.0000    128.0
+mean_rank    pattern    bb_round       -0.0089    1.0000 MC/B=1,000,000    0.3485    120.0
+rank         pattern    bb_learn       +0.0000    1.0000 MC/B=1,000,000    1.0000    128.0
+rank         pattern    bb_ret         +0.0000    1.0000 MC/B=1,000,000    1.0000    128.0
+rank         pattern    bb_round       +0.0000    1.0000 MC/B=1,000,000    1.0000    128.0
+score_share  pattern    bb_learn       -0.0071    0.5082 MC/B=1,000,000    0.6109    114.0
+score_share  pattern    bb_ret         +0.0012    0.9046 MC/B=1,000,000    0.8653    123.0
+score_share  pattern    bb_round       -0.0128    0.2908 MC/B=1,000,000    0.2662     98.0
+
+MINIMUM DETECTABLE EFFECT (two-sample, alpha=0.05 two-sided, 80% power; MDE = 2.8016*sd*sqrt(2/n))
+metric        n/arm   sd(ref)        MDE   ref mean
+----------------------------------------------------
+score            16    152.85     151.40   2965.000
+survival         16     44.25      43.83   1031.250
+wins             16      0.40       0.40      6.812
+mean_rank        16      0.00       0.00      1.000
+
+LIVENESS (per arm, from the bot's own boot report + log)
+arm         rack_melee       mem  targets  tchanges  bb-reset   OK
+bb_learn      BITBRAIN     decay     3.00     66.75     66.75  yes
+bb_ret        BITBRAIN  retained     3.00     68.06     68.19  yes
+bb_round      BITBRAIN  perRound     3.00     68.75     68.75  yes
+pattern        PATTERN  perRound     3.00     66.44      0.00  yes
+
+# machine-readable: common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab/analysis.json

common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab/bb_learn/run1.json

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"arm":"bb_learn","run":1,"rounds":7,"commit":"0f5cfe37b24952ae07fee0a7db526317ae127e6c","binary_sha256":"11bba2735413bc35ab3b61ead711c51d2223183ad9da510799bc7d76b99b22ca","ok":true,"modularbot":{"name":"ModularBot","totalScore":2883,"rank":1,"firstPlaces":7,"survivalCount":1050,"found":true},"field":[{"name":"WaveSurfer","totalScore":1016,"rank":2,"firstPlaces":0,"survivalCount":450},{"name":"PatternMover","totalScore":550,"rank":3,"firstPlaces":0,"survivalCount":250},{"name":"RandomMover","totalScore":460,"rank":4,"firstPlaces":0,"survivalCount":350}],"perRound":[{"round":1,"score":377,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":2,"score":836,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":3,"score":1178,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":4,"score":1548,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":5,"score":1929,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":6,"score":2393,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":7,"score":2883,"rank":1,"survived":true}],"live":{"env_TR_RACK_PATTERN":"off","env_TR_RACK_BITBRAIN":"melee","env_TR_BITBRAIN_MEM":"decay","env_TR_BITBRAIN_GAINS":"1.0,1.25,1.5,2.0","env_TR_MOVEMENT":"tfil","rack_active_melee":"BITBRAIN","rack_active_1v1":"FULL","rack_melee_lines":11,"config_lines":82,"distinct_targets":3,"target_changes":63,"bb_reset_target_change":63,"bb_lines":14,"result_end_won":"7/7"}}

common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab/bb_learn/run10.json

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"arm":"bb_learn","run":10,"rounds":7,"commit":"0f5cfe37b24952ae07fee0a7db526317ae127e6c","binary_sha256":"11bba2735413bc35ab3b61ead711c51d2223183ad9da510799bc7d76b99b22ca","ok":true,"modularbot":{"name":"ModularBot","totalScore":2757,"rank":1,"firstPlaces":7,"survivalCount":1050,"found":true},"field":[{"name":"WaveSurfer","totalScore":933,"rank":2,"firstPlaces":0,"survivalCount":500},{"name":"RandomMover","totalScore":570,"rank":3,"firstPlaces":0,"survivalCount":350},{"name":"PatternMover","totalScore":530,"rank":4,"firstPlaces":0,"survivalCount":200}],"perRound":[{"round":1,"score":404,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":2,"score":823,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":3,"score":1122,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":4,"score":1595,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":5,"score":1974,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":6,"score":2359,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":7,"score":2757,"rank":1,"survived":true}],"live":{"env_TR_RACK_PATTERN":"off","env_TR_RACK_BITBRAIN":"melee","env_TR_BITBRAIN_MEM":"decay","env_TR_BITBRAIN_GAINS":"1.0,1.25,1.5,2.0","env_TR_MOVEMENT":"tfil","rack_active_melee":"BITBRAIN","rack_active_1v1":"FULL","rack_melee_lines":11,"config_lines":81,"distinct_targets":3,"target_changes":68,"bb_reset_target_change":68,"bb_lines":28,"result_end_won":"7/7"}}

common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab/bb_learn/run11.json

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"arm":"bb_learn","run":11,"rounds":7,"commit":"0f5cfe37b24952ae07fee0a7db526317ae127e6c","binary_sha256":"11bba2735413bc35ab3b61ead711c51d2223183ad9da510799bc7d76b99b22ca","ok":true,"modularbot":{"name":"ModularBot","totalScore":2906,"rank":1,"firstPlaces":7,"survivalCount":1050,"found":true},"field":[{"name":"WaveSurfer","totalScore":694,"rank":2,"firstPlaces":0,"survivalCount":300},{"name":"RandomMover","totalScore":678,"rank":3,"firstPlaces":0,"survivalCount":500},{"name":"PatternMover","totalScore":439,"rank":4,"firstPlaces":0,"survivalCount":250}],"perRound":[{"round":1,"score":438,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":2,"score":870,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":3,"score":1284,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":4,"score":1708,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":5,"score":2062,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":6,"score":2532,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":7,"score":2906,"rank":1,"survived":true}],"live":{"env_TR_RACK_PATTERN":"off","env_TR_RACK_BITBRAIN":"melee","env_TR_BITBRAIN_MEM":"decay","env_TR_BITBRAIN_GAINS":"1.0,1.25,1.5,2.0","env_TR_MOVEMENT":"tfil","rack_active_melee":"BITBRAIN","rack_active_1v1":"FULL","rack_melee_lines":10,"config_lines":79,"distinct_targets":3,"target_changes":68,"bb_reset_target_change":68,"bb_lines":25,"result_end_won":""}}

common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab/bb_learn/run12.json

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"arm":"bb_learn","run":12,"rounds":7,"commit":"0f5cfe37b24952ae07fee0a7db526317ae127e6c","binary_sha256":"11bba2735413bc35ab3b61ead711c51d2223183ad9da510799bc7d76b99b22ca","ok":true,"modularbot":{"name":"ModularBot","totalScore":3145,"rank":1,"firstPlaces":7,"survivalCount":1050,"found":true},"field":[{"name":"RandomMover","totalScore":690,"rank":2,"firstPlaces":0,"survivalCount":500},{"name":"WaveSurfer","totalScore":648,"rank":3,"firstPlaces":0,"survivalCount":250},{"name":"PatternMover","totalScore":547,"rank":4,"firstPlaces":0,"survivalCount":300}],"perRound":[{"round":1,"score":460,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":2,"score":858,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":3,"score":1293,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":4,"score":1778,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":5,"score":2227,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":6,"score":2698,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":7,"score":3145,"rank":1,"survived":true}],"live":{"env_TR_RACK_PATTERN":"off","env_TR_RACK_BITBRAIN":"melee","env_TR_BITBRAIN_MEM":"decay","env_TR_BITBRAIN_GAINS":"1.0,1.25,1.5,2.0","env_TR_MOVEMENT":"tfil","rack_active_melee":"BITBRAIN","rack_active_1v1":"FULL","rack_melee_lines":10,"config_lines":82,"distinct_targets":3,"target_changes":72,"bb_reset_target_change":72,"bb_lines":17,"result_end_won":""}}

common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab/bb_learn/run13.json

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"arm":"bb_learn","run":13,"rounds":7,"commit":"0f5cfe37b24952ae07fee0a7db526317ae127e6c","binary_sha256":"11bba2735413bc35ab3b61ead711c51d2223183ad9da510799bc7d76b99b22ca","ok":true,"modularbot":{"name":"ModularBot","totalScore":2911,"rank":1,"firstPlaces":7,"survivalCount":1050,"found":true},"field":[{"name":"WaveSurfer","totalScore":814,"rank":2,"firstPlaces":0,"survivalCount":250},{"name":"PatternMover","totalScore":644,"rank":3,"firstPlaces":0,"survivalCount":400},{"name":"RandomMover","totalScore":563,"rank":4,"firstPlaces":0,"survivalCount":400}],"perRound":[{"round":1,"score":399,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":2,"score":841,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":3,"score":1233,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":4,"score":1635,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":5,"score":2106,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":6,"score":2521,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":7,"score":2911,"rank":1,"survived":true}],"live":{"env_TR_RACK_PATTERN":"off","env_TR_RACK_BITBRAIN":"melee","env_TR_BITBRAIN_MEM":"decay","env_TR_BITBRAIN_GAINS":"1.0,1.25,1.5,2.0","env_TR_MOVEMENT":"tfil","rack_active_melee":"BITBRAIN","rack_active_1v1":"FULL","rack_melee_lines":11,"config_lines":93,"distinct_targets":3,"target_changes":80,"bb_reset_target_change":80,"bb_lines":10,"result_end_won":""}}

common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab/bb_learn/run14.json

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"arm":"bb_learn","run":14,"rounds":7,"commit":"0f5cfe37b24952ae07fee0a7db526317ae127e6c","binary_sha256":"11bba2735413bc35ab3b61ead711c51d2223183ad9da510799bc7d76b99b22ca","ok":true,"modularbot":{"name":"ModularBot","totalScore":3068,"rank":1,"firstPlaces":7,"survivalCount":1050,"found":true},"field":[{"name":"WaveSurfer","totalScore":694,"rank":2,"firstPlaces":0,"survivalCount":250},{"name":"RandomMover","totalScore":636,"rank":3,"firstPlaces":0,"survivalCount":500},{"name":"PatternMover","totalScore":553,"rank":4,"firstPlaces":0,"survivalCount":300}],"perRound":[{"round":1,"score":450,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":2,"score":855,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":3,"score":1409,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":4,"score":1797,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":5,"score":2235,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":6,"score":2645,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":7,"score":3068,"rank":1,"survived":true}],"live":{"env_TR_RACK_PATTERN":"off","env_TR_RACK_BITBRAIN":"melee","env_TR_BITBRAIN_MEM":"decay","env_TR_BITBRAIN_GAINS":"1.0,1.25,1.5,2.0","env_TR_MOVEMENT":"tfil","rack_active_melee":"BITBRAIN","rack_active_1v1":"FULL","rack_melee_lines":12,"config_lines":70,"distinct_targets":3,"target_changes":55,"bb_reset_target_change":55,"bb_lines":20,"result_end_won":""}}

common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab/bb_learn/run15.json

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"arm":"bb_learn","run":15,"rounds":7,"commit":"0f5cfe37b24952ae07fee0a7db526317ae127e6c","binary_sha256":"11bba2735413bc35ab3b61ead711c51d2223183ad9da510799bc7d76b99b22ca","ok":true,"modularbot":{"name":"ModularBot","totalScore":2758,"rank":1,"firstPlaces":7,"survivalCount":1050,"found":true},"field":[{"name":"WaveSurfer","totalScore":765,"rank":2,"firstPlaces":0,"survivalCount":300},{"name":"RandomMover","totalScore":666,"rank":3,"firstPlaces":0,"survivalCount":400},{"name":"PatternMover","totalScore":635,"rank":4,"firstPlaces":0,"survivalCount":350}],"perRound":[{"round":1,"score":387,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":2,"score":709,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":3,"score":1100,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":4,"score":1554,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":5,"score":1909,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":6,"score":2321,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":7,"score":2758,"rank":1,"survived":true}],"live":{"env_TR_RACK_PATTERN":"off","env_TR_RACK_BITBRAIN":"melee","env_TR_BITBRAIN_MEM":"decay","env_TR_BITBRAIN_GAINS":"1.0,1.25,1.5,2.0","env_TR_MOVEMENT":"tfil","rack_active_melee":"BITBRAIN","rack_active_1v1":"FULL","rack_melee_lines":10,"config_lines":69,"distinct_targets":3,"target_changes":58,"bb_reset_target_change":58,"bb_lines":39,"result_end_won":""}}

common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab/bb_learn/run16.json

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"arm":"bb_learn","run":16,"rounds":7,"commit":"0f5cfe37b24952ae07fee0a7db526317ae127e6c","binary_sha256":"11bba2735413bc35ab3b61ead711c51d2223183ad9da510799bc7d76b99b22ca","ok":true,"modularbot":{"name":"ModularBot","totalScore":2715,"rank":1,"firstPlaces":7,"survivalCount":1050,"found":true},"field":[{"name":"RandomMover","totalScore":803,"rank":2,"firstPlaces":0,"survivalCount":500},{"name":"WaveSurfer","totalScore":665,"rank":3,"firstPlaces":0,"survivalCount":300},{"name":"PatternMover","totalScore":491,"rank":4,"firstPlaces":0,"survivalCount":250}],"perRound":[{"round":1,"score":368,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":2,"score":751,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":3,"score":1173,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":4,"score":1551,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":5,"score":1985,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":6,"score":2356,"rank":1,"survived":true},{"round":7,"score":2715,"rank":1,"survived":true}],"live":{"env_TR_RACK_PATTERN":"off","env_TR_RACK_BITBRAIN":"melee","env_TR_BITBRAIN_MEM":"decay","env_TR_BITBRAIN_GAINS":"1.0,1.25,1.5,2.0","env_TR_MOVEMENT":"tfil","rack_active_melee":"BITBRAIN","rack_active_1v1":"FULL","rack_melee_lines":10,"config_lines":95,"distinct_targets":3,"target_changes":77,"bb_reset_target_change":77,"bb_lines":36,"result_end_won":"7/7"}}

common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab/bb_learn/run2.json

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common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab/pattern/run12.json

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common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab/pattern/run13.json

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common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab/pattern/run14.json

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common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab/pattern/run15.json

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common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab/pattern/run16.json

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common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab/pattern/run2.json

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common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab/pattern/run3.json

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common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab/pattern/run4.json

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common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab/pattern/run5.json

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common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab/pattern/run6.json

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common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab/pattern/run7.json

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common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab/pattern/run8.json

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common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab/pattern/run9.json

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common_libs/tests/measure_melee_bitbrain_ab.nim

@@ -0,0 +1,404 @@
+## MELEE A/B: is BitBrain actually better than Pattern in melee?
+##
+## The repo's FIRST melee measurement. Runs a 4-bot Free-For-All
+## (ModularBot + WaveSurfer + PatternMover + RandomMover) for each arm, where
+## the ONLY thing that differs between arms is ModularBot's gun-rack environment
+## (`TR_RACK_*` / `TR_BITBRAIN_*`). Every other bot is held fixed.
+##
+## Why melee needs its own measurement: Pattern's advantage comes from
+## accumulating history with ONE enemy. Melee rotates targets, fragmenting
+## per-enemy history, so a gun that resets per target and re-adapts fast
+## (BitBrain, `TR_BITBRAIN_RESET_ON_TARGET=on` by default) could gain exactly
+## where Pattern loses. That is the hypothesis; this runner produces the number.
+##
+## Design (see docs/melee_bitbrain_ab.md):
+##   * arms differ ONLY in the ModularBot wrapper script's exported env;
+##   * each run gets its own ModularBot bot-dir + stdout/stderr log, so liveness
+##     (`[env] rack active melee = ...`) and target-switching evidence
+##     (`[config] ... target=#N`, `[bb-reset] reason=target_change`) are captured;
+##   * the runner is driven in one process per arm from a shell driver; each
+##     process gets its own Tank Royale server (ephemeral port).
+##
+## Usage:
+##   nim c -r --nimcache:/tmp/nc_j116 --path:common_libs \
+##     common_libs/tests/measure_melee_bitbrain_ab.nim --list-arms
+##
+##   MELEE_SERVER_JAR=<jar> \
+##   common_libs/tests/measure_melee_bitbrain_ab.nim \
+##       --outdir /tmp/melee_ab --build-only
+##
+##   common_libs/tests/measure_melee_bitbrain_ab.nim \
+##       --outdir /tmp/melee_ab --arm pattern --run-start 1 --run-count 16
+##
+## Arm env (verbatim, from the arms table below) is written into the per-run
+## wrapper script; the runner process' own environment is NOT mutated for the
+## bot, so parallel arm processes cannot leak into each other.
+
+import std/[os, osproc, strutils, strformat, json, sequtils]
+
+import test_framework/server_manager
+import test_framework/runner_process
+import test_framework/battle_result
+
+# ── the field (fixed across arms) ────────────────────────────────────────────
+const
+  repoSuffix = "common_libs" / "test_framework" / "adversaries"
+  AdversaryNames = ["WaveSurfer", "PatternMover", "RandomMover"]
+    ## Mixed field: one strong reactive mover (WaveSurfer, linear gun), one
+    ## deterministic pattern mover (PatternMover), one erratic mover
+    ## (RandomMover). All three shoot.
+
+# ── the arms (ONLY ModularBot's gun rack differs) ────────────────────────────
+type
+  Arm = object
+    name*: string
+    env*:  seq[string]   ## "KEY=VALUE", exported in the per-run wrapper script
+    note*: string
+
+const Arms*: array[4, Arm] = [
+  Arm(name: "pattern", env: @[],
+      note: "shipped default: Pattern-only rack, no env"),
+  Arm(name: "bb_round",
+      env: @["TR_RACK_PATTERN=off", "TR_RACK_BITBRAIN=melee",
+             "TR_BITBRAIN_MEM=perRound", "TR_BITBRAIN_LOG=1"],
+      note: "BitBrain-only melee rack, perRound memory"),
+  Arm(name: "bb_ret",
+      env: @["TR_RACK_PATTERN=off", "TR_RACK_BITBRAIN=melee",
+             "TR_BITBRAIN_MEM=retained", "TR_BITBRAIN_LOG=1"],
+      note: "BitBrain-only melee rack, retained memory"),
+  Arm(name: "bb_learn",
+      env: @["TR_RACK_PATTERN=off", "TR_RACK_BITBRAIN=melee",
+             "TR_BITBRAIN_MEM=decay", "TR_BITBRAIN_GAINS=1.0,1.25,1.5,2.0",
+             "TR_BITBRAIN_LOG=1"],
+      note: "BitBrain-only melee rack, decay memory + learned gains (user config)"),
+]
+
+const
+  ModularBotJson = """{
+  "name": "ModularBot",
+  "version": "0.1.0",
+  "authors": ["Davide Cappellini"],
+  "description": "frozen melee A/B build of ModularBot",
+  "homepage": "",
+  "countryCodes": ["IT"],
+  "gameTypes": ["classic", "1v1"],
+  "platform": "Nim",
+  "programmingLang": "Nim"
+}
+"""
+
+# ANSI SGR sequences (the bot's config line color-highlights changed fields).
+const AnsiRe = "\x1b\\[[0-9;]*m"
+
+proc stripAnsi(s: string): string =
+  result = newStringOfCap(s.len)
+  var i = 0
+  while i < s.len:
+    if s[i] == '\x1b' and i + 1 < s.len and s[i+1] == '[':
+      i += 2
+      while i < s.len and s[i] notin {'m'}: inc i
+      if i < s.len: inc i          # skip the terminating 'm'
+    else:
+      result.add s[i]
+      inc i
+
+proc repoRoot(): string =
+  currentSourcePath().parentDir.parentDir.parentDir
+
+proc quote(s: string): string = quoteShell(s)
+
+proc params(): seq[string] =
+  for i in 1 .. paramCount(): result.add paramStr(i)
+
+proc findParam(args: seq[string], name: string, default = ""): string =
+  for i in 0 ..< args.len:
+    if args[i] == name and i + 1 < args.len: return args[i+1]
+  default
+
+proc hasFlag(args: seq[string], name: string): bool =
+  for a in args:
+    if a == name: return true
+  false
+
+# ── frozen ModularBot build (from `git archive HEAD`, like tools/ab/ab_run.sh) ─
+
+proc binarySha(bin: string): string =
+  let (outp, rc) = execCmdEx("sha256sum " & quote(bin))
+  if rc == 0: outp.strip().split(' ')[0] else: "unknown"
+
+proc headCommit(repo: string): string =
+  let (outp, rc) = execCmdEx("git -C " & quote(repo) & " rev-parse HEAD")
+  if rc == 0: outp.strip() else: "unknown"
+
+proc buildFrozen(repo, outdir: string): string =
+  ## Compile ONE frozen ModularBot from the committed HEAD snapshot and return
+  ## its path. A dirty tree cannot leak into the measurement.
+  let bin = outdir / "frozen" / "ModularBot_bin"
+  if fileExists(bin): return bin
+  createDir(outdir / "frozen")
+  let snapshot = outdir / "frozen" / "head"
+  createDir(snapshot)
+  let (arcOut, arcRc) = execCmdEx(
+    "git -C " & quote(repo) & " archive HEAD | tar -x -C " & quote(snapshot))
+  if arcRc != 0:
+    raise newException(IOError, "git archive HEAD failed:\n" & arcOut)
+  let garage = snapshot / "ModularBot_garage"
+  if not dirExists(garage):
+    raise newException(IOError, "no ModularBot_garage in HEAD snapshot")
+  let nimcache = outdir / "nimcache"
+  let cmd = "nim c -d:release --nimcache:" & quote(nimcache) &
+            " --out:" & quote(bin) & " src/ModularBot.nim"
+  let (outp, rc) = execCmdEx(cmd, workingDir = garage)
+  if rc != 0 or not fileExists(bin):
+    raise newException(OSError, "frozen ModularBot build failed:\n" & outp)
+  result = bin
+
+# ── per-run wrapper bot dir ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+proc writeWrapper(botDir: string, env: seq[string], bin, stdoutLog, stderrLog: string) =
+  createDir(botDir)
+  writeFile(botDir / "ModularBot.json", ModularBotJson)
+  var sh = "#!/bin/sh\ncd \"$(dirname \"$0\")\"\n"
+  for kv in env:
+    let p = kv.split('=', 1)
+    sh.add("export " & p[0] & "=\"" & p[1] & "\"\n")
+  sh.add("exec ./ModularBot_bin > " & quote(stdoutLog) &
+         " 2> " & quote(stderrLog) & "\n")
+  writeFile(botDir / "ModularBot.sh", sh)
+  discard execCmdEx("chmod +x " & quote(botDir / "ModularBot.sh"))
+  if fileExists(botDir / "ModularBot_bin"): removeFile(botDir / "ModularBot_bin")
+  createSymlink(bin, botDir / "ModularBot_bin")
+
+# ── liveness / target-switching extraction from the bot's stdout ─────────────
+
+type Live = object
+  envRackPattern: string
+  envRackBitbrain: string
+  envBitbrainMem: string
+  envBitbrainGains: string
+  envMovement: string
+  rackActiveMelee: string
+  rackActive1v1: string
+  rackMeleeLines: int
+  configLines: int
+  distinctTargets: int
+  targetChanges: int
+  bbResetTargetChange: int
+  bbLines: int
+  resultEndWon: string
+
+proc envLine(text, key: string): string =
+  ## Value of an `[env] KEY = VALUE` (or `[env] KEY=VALUE`) boot-report line,
+  ## with the `(source: ...)` annotation stripped. Empty when absent.
+  let prefix = "[env] " & key
+  for line in text.splitLines():
+    let s = line.strip()
+    if not s.startsWith(prefix): continue
+    var rest = s[prefix.len .. ^1].strip()
+    if rest.len == 0 or rest[0] != '=': continue
+    rest = rest[1 .. ^1].strip()
+    let si = rest.find("(source:")
+    if si >= 0: rest = rest[0 ..< si].strip()
+    return rest
+
+proc parseLive(text: string): Live =
+  var lastTarget = -1
+  var seen: seq[int]
+  for raw in text.splitLines():
+    let s = stripAnsi(raw).strip()
+    if s.startsWith("[config] "):
+      inc result.configLines
+      let i = s.find("target=#")
+      if i >= 0:
+        var j = i + "target=#".len
+        var neg = false
+        if j < s.len and s[j] == '-': neg = true; inc j
+        var num = 0
+        var any = false
+        while j < s.len and s[j] in {'0'..'9'}:
+          num = num * 10 + (ord(s[j]) - ord('0')); inc j; any = true
+        if any and not neg:
+          if lastTarget >= 0 and num != lastTarget: inc result.targetChanges
+          lastTarget = num
+          if num notin seen: seen.add num
+    elif s.startsWith("[rack] "):
+      if " mode=melee " in s or s.endsWith(" mode=melee"):
+        inc result.rackMeleeLines
+    elif s.startsWith("[bb-reset] ") and "reason=target_change" in s:
+      inc result.bbResetTargetChange
+    elif s.startsWith("[bb] "):
+      inc result.bbLines
+    elif s.startsWith("[result] battle END:"):
+      let i = s.find("rounds won ")
+      if i >= 0: result.resultEndWon = s[i + "rounds won ".len .. ^1].strip()
+  result.distinctTargets = seen.len
+  result.envRackPattern     = envLine(text, "TR_RACK_PATTERN")
+  result.envRackBitbrain    = envLine(text, "TR_RACK_BITBRAIN")
+  result.envBitbrainMem     = envLine(text, "TR_BITBRAIN_MEM")
+  result.envBitbrainGains   = envLine(text, "TR_BITBRAIN_GAINS")
+  result.envMovement        = envLine(text, "TR_MOVEMENT")
+  result.rackActiveMelee    = envLine(text, "rack active melee")
+  result.rackActive1v1      = envLine(text, "rack active 1v1")
+
+# ── one run ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+proc runOne(repo, outdir, bin, armName: string, env: seq[string],
+            run, rounds, timeout: int, commit, binsha: string): bool =
+  let armDir = outdir / armName
+  createDir(armDir)
+  let work = outdir / "work" / armName / ("run" & $run)
+  let botDir = work / "ModularBot"
+  let outLog = armDir / ("run" & $run & ".bot.stdout.log")
+  let errLog = armDir / ("run" & $run & ".bot.stderr.log")
+  let runLog = armDir / ("run" & $run & ".runner.log")
+  let jsonPath = armDir / ("run" & $run & ".json")
+  if fileExists(outLog): removeFile(outLog)
+  if fileExists(errLog): removeFile(errLog)
+  writeWrapper(botDir, env, bin, outLog, errLog)
+
+  var advDirs: seq[string]
+  for a in AdversaryNames: advDirs.add repo / repoSuffix / a
+
+  var ok = true
+  var raw = ""
+  try:
+    raw = runBattleRunner(getServerUrl(), @[botDir] & advDirs, rounds, timeout, true)
+  except CatchableError as e:
+    ok = false
+    raw = "EXCEPTION: " & e.msg
+  writeFile(runLog, raw)
+
+  if not ok:
+    writeFile(jsonPath, $(%*{"arm": armName, "run": run, "rounds": rounds,
+                              "commit": commit, "binary_sha256": binsha,
+                              "ok": false, "error": raw}))
+    stderr.writeLine(fmt"[melee] {armName} run {run}: FAILED")
+    return false
+
+  let r = parseServerOutput(raw)
+  var perRound: seq[tuple[round, score, rank: int, survived: bool]]
+  var botRd: seq[JsonNode]
+  for rr in r.rounds:
+    for br in rr.results:
+      if br.name == "ModularBot":
+        perRound.add (rr.round, br.score, br.rank, br.survived)
+
+  var modJ = %*{"name": "ModularBot", "found": false}
+  for b in r.results:
+    if b.name == "ModularBot":
+      modJ = %*{"name": b.name, "totalScore": b.totalScore, "rank": b.rank,
+                "firstPlaces": b.firstPlaces, "survivalCount": b.survivalCount,
+                "found": true}
+  var field = newJArray()
+  for b in r.results:
+    if b.name == "ModularBot": continue
+    field.add %*{"name": b.name, "totalScore": b.totalScore, "rank": b.rank,
+                 "firstPlaces": b.firstPlaces, "survivalCount": b.survivalCount}
+
+  for pr in perRound:
+    botRd.add %*{"round": pr.round, "score": pr.score, "rank": pr.rank,
+                 "survived": pr.survived}
+
+  var live = Live()
+  if fileExists(outLog):
+    live = parseLive(readFile(outLog))
+
+  let row = %*{
+    "arm": armName, "run": run, "rounds": rounds,
+    "commit": commit, "binary_sha256": binsha,
+    "ok": true,
+    "modularbot": modJ,
+    "field": field,
+    "perRound": botRd,
+    "live": %*{
+      "env_TR_RACK_PATTERN": live.envRackPattern,
+      "env_TR_RACK_BITBRAIN": live.envRackBitbrain,
+      "env_TR_BITBRAIN_MEM": live.envBitbrainMem,
+      "env_TR_BITBRAIN_GAINS": live.envBitbrainGains,
+      "env_TR_MOVEMENT": live.envMovement,
+      "rack_active_melee": live.rackActiveMelee,
+      "rack_active_1v1": live.rackActive1v1,
+      "rack_melee_lines": live.rackMeleeLines,
+      "config_lines": live.configLines,
+      "distinct_targets": live.distinctTargets,
+      "target_changes": live.targetChanges,
+      "bb_reset_target_change": live.bbResetTargetChange,
+      "bb_lines": live.bbLines,
+      "result_end_won": live.resultEndWon
+    }
+  }
+  writeFile(jsonPath, $(row))
+  let mb = r.results.filterIt(it.name == "ModularBot")
+  let wins = if mb.len > 0: mb[0].firstPlaces else: 0
+  let rk = if mb.len > 0: mb[0].rank else: 0
+  let sc = if mb.len > 0: mb[0].totalScore else: 0
+  echo fmt"[melee] {armName} run {run}: wins={wins}/{rounds} rank={rk} score={sc} " &
+       fmt"targets={live.distinctTargets} changes={live.targetChanges} " &
+       fmt"rackMelee={live.rackActiveMelee} bbreset={live.bbResetTargetChange}"
+  result = true
+
+# ── main ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+proc main() =
+  let repo = repoRoot()
+  let args = params()
+  if hasFlag(args, "--list-arms") or hasFlag(args, "--help") or args.len == 0:
+    echo "arms:"
+    for a in Arms:
+      echo a.name & "\t" & a.env.join(" ") & "\t" & a.note
+    return
+  let outdir = findParam(args, "--outdir", "/tmp/melee_bitbrain_ab")
+  createDir(outdir)
+  let commit = headCommit(repo)
+  let bin = buildFrozen(repo, outdir)
+  let binsha = binarySha(bin)
+  echo "[melee] commit=", commit, " binary_sha256=", binsha
+  if hasFlag(args, "--build-only"): return
+
+  let armName = findParam(args, "--arm")
+  if armName.len == 0:
+    stderr.writeLine("--arm is required (or --list-arms / --build-only)")
+    quit(1)
+  var arm: Arm
+  var found = false
+  for a in Arms:
+    if a.name == armName: arm = a; found = true
+  if not found:
+    stderr.writeLine("unknown arm: " & armName)
+    quit(1)
+
+  let runStart = parseInt(findParam(args, "--run-start", "1"))
+  let runCount = parseInt(findParam(args, "--run-count", "15"))
+  let rounds = parseInt(findParam(args, "--rounds", "7"))
+  let timeout = parseInt(findParam(args, "--timeout", "900000"))
+  let retries = parseInt(findParam(args, "--retries", "2"))
+
+  # `--runs 1,3,5` overrides the contiguous range (used to fill failed runs).
+  var runList: seq[int]
+  let runsSpec = findParam(args, "--runs", "")
+  if runsSpec.len > 0:
+    for t in runsSpec.split(','):
+      let s = t.strip()
+      if s.len > 0: runList.add parseInt(s)
+  else:
+    for run in runStart ..< runStart + runCount: runList.add run
+
+  ensureServer()
+  echo "[melee] server=", getServerUrl(), " arm=", armName,
+       " runs=", runList.len, " rounds=", rounds, " retries=", retries
+
+  var ok = 0
+  for run in runList:
+    var done = false
+    for attempt in 1 .. retries + 1:
+      if runOne(repo, outdir, bin, armName, arm.env, run, rounds, timeout, commit, binsha):
+        done = true
+        break
+      if attempt <= retries:
+        stderr.writeLine(fmt"[melee] {armName} run {run}: retry {attempt}/{retries} in 8s")
+        sleep(8000)
+    if done: inc ok
+  echo fmt"[melee] {armName}: {ok}/{runList.len} runs ok"
+
+when isMainModule:
+  main()

common_libs/tests/run_melee_bitbrain_ab.sh

@@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env bash
+# run_melee_bitbrain_ab.sh — drive the melee A/B (see measure_melee_bitbrain_ab.nim).
+#
+# Builds ONE frozen ModularBot (from `git archive HEAD`), then runs one process
+# per arm in parallel; each process owns its own Tank Royale server on an
+# ephemeral port. Output: <outdir>/<arm>/run<N>.json (+ .bot.stdout.log).
+#
+#   common_libs/tests/run_melee_bitbrain_ab.sh [outdir]
+#
+# Env: MELEE_RUNS (default 16), MELEE_ROUNDS (default 7), MELEE_ARMS (space list).
+# Kills its own process groups on EXIT/INT/TERM (setsid per arm).
+set -euo pipefail
+
+HERE="$(cd "$(dirname "${BASH_SOURCE[0]}")" && pwd)"
+REPO="$(cd "$HERE/../.." && pwd)"
+OUTDIR="${1:-/tmp/melee_bitbrain_ab}"
+RUNS="${MELEE_RUNS:-16}"
+ROUNDS="${MELEE_ROUNDS:-7}"
+ARMS_STR="${MELEE_ARMS:-pattern bb_round bb_ret bb_learn}"
+BIN="$HERE/measure_melee_bitbrain_ab"
+
+[[ -x "$BIN" ]] || { echo "ERROR: build the runner first: nim c --path:common_libs $HERE/measure_melee_bitbrain_ab.nim" >&2; exit 1; }
+mkdir -p "$OUTDIR"
+
+echo "[driver] building frozen ModularBot…"
+"$BIN" --outdir "$OUTDIR" --build-only
+
+read -r -a ARMS <<< "$ARMS_STR"
+PIDS=()
+cleanup() {
+  local rc=$?
+  trap - EXIT INT TERM
+  for p in "${PIDS[@]:-}"; do
+    [[ -n "$p" ]] || continue
+    kill -TERM -- "-$p" 2>/dev/null || true
+  done
+  sleep 1
+  for p in "${PIDS[@]:-}"; do
+    [[ -n "$p" ]] || continue
+    kill -KILL -- "-$p" 2>/dev/null || true
+  done
+  # backstop: anything from this run's process group that outlived the runner
+  pkill -f "[m]easure_melee_bitbrain_ab.*$OUTDIR" 2>/dev/null || true
+  exit "$rc"
+}
+trap cleanup EXIT INT TERM
+
+for arm in "${ARMS[@]}"; do
+  echo "[driver] launching arm $arm (runs=$RUNS rounds=$ROUNDS)"
+  setsid "$BIN" --outdir "$OUTDIR" --arm "$arm" \
+      --run-start 1 --run-count "$RUNS" --rounds "$ROUNDS" \
+      > "$OUTDIR/$arm.driver.log" 2>&1 &
+  PIDS+=("$!")
+  sleep 3   # stagger so concurrent servers do not race for the same free port
+done
+
+echo "[driver] all arms launched; waiting…"
+FAIL=0
+for p in "${PIDS[@]}"; do
+  wait "$p" || FAIL=$((FAIL + 1))
+done
+PIDS=()
+echo "[driver] done (failed arm processes: $FAIL)"
+exit "$FAIL"

docs/melee_bitbrain_ab.md

@@ -0,0 +1,262 @@
+# Is BitBrain actually better than Pattern in melee?
+
+**This is the repository's FIRST melee measurement.** Every A/B before this one
+was 1v1 vs DrussGT. This doc answers one question with a real number:
+
+> *"btw bitbrain gun is crushing in melee, the fast adaptation is a killer
+> feature there"* — the owner.
+
+## TL;DR (direct answer)
+
+**Not detectable at this sample size.** On the metric that matters most in a
+melee (the server's round score = damage + survival bonus), the three BitBrain
+arms land within ±62 points of the shipped Pattern rack, and every difference is
+well inside the noise: permutation **p = 0.16 – 0.71**, all **< the MDE of ±151
+score points (~5.1 %)**. Placement is saturated: every arm finishes **rank 1**
+(ModularBot's TFIL movement beats this field regardless of gun). Round wins
+*hint* in BitBrain's favour — **112/112** (retained, learned) and **111/112**
+(perRound) vs Pattern's **109/112** — but that +0.19 rounds/run is not
+significant (**perm p = 0.225, Mann-Whitney p = 0.080**) and is half the
+**MDE of 0.40 rounds/run**. So:
+
+| claim | verdict |
+|---|---|
+| BitBrain beats Pattern on **round wins** in melee | **hint only, not significant** (p=0.225; MDE=0.40 wins/run) |
+| BitBrain beats Pattern on **survival** in melee | **not detectable** (p=0.23–1.00) |
+| BitBrain beats Pattern on **placement** in melee | **no — every arm sweeps** (rank 1 everywhere) |
+| BitBrain beats Pattern on **score/damage** in melee | **no — not detectable** (p=0.16–0.71; all diffs << MDE) |
+
+**MEASURED** (this doc): the numbers above. **INFERRED** (not measured): the
+mechanism (Pattern loses history across a target switch; BitBrain resets and
+re-adapts). The mechanism is real and was exercised — see the target-switching
+liveness — but at this sample it buys no detectable score.
+
+---
+
+## Why melee is a different question
+
+Pattern's strength comes from accumulating history with **one** enemy. Melee
+rotates targets, so per-enemy histories fragment; a gun that **resets per target
+and re-adapts fast** should gain exactly where Pattern loses. BitBrain is built
+for that: `TR_BITBRAIN_RESET_ON_TARGET` defaults to **on**, and its memory modes
+(`perRound` / `retained` / `decay`) exist for changing targets. That is a
+plausible mechanism — but a plausible mechanism is not a measurement, and
+**melee is higher-variance than 1v1** (where a 6-4 result already had P=0.353),
+so an impression is worth even less here. This is the first real number.
+
+## Melee scoring caveat
+
+Melee is scored differently from 1v1 and the framework does **not** expose raw
+damage. All numbers below come from the framework's own fields
+(`BattleResult` / `BotResult` / `BotRoundResult`):
+
+* **`firstPlaces`** — rounds won (rank 1 in a round). The run's primary outcome.
+* **`survivalCount`** — total ticks survived across the run's 7 rounds.
+* **`rank` / round `rank`** — final placement and per-round placement (1 = best).
+* **`totalScore`** — the **server's round score**, which is **damage dealt plus
+  the survival bonus**, *not raw damage*. It is the closest available proxy for
+  damage; treat it as "score", not "damage". `score share` = ModularBot's score
+  ÷ (all four bots' scores).
+
+## Method
+
+*Field (fixed across arms):* 4-bot Free-For-All — **ModularBot + WaveSurfer +
+PatternMover + RandomMover**. Mixed by design: WaveSurfer is the strong reactive
+mover (linear gun), PatternMover the deterministic pattern (Pattern's home turf),
+RandomMover the erratic one. All three shoot.
+
+*Arms (only ModularBot's gun rack differs):*
+
+| arm | env |
+|---|---|
+| `pattern` | *(no env — shipped default: Pattern-only rack)* |
+| `bb_round` | `TR_RACK_PATTERN=off TR_RACK_BITBRAIN=melee TR_BITBRAIN_MEM=perRound TR_BITBRAIN_LOG=1` |
+| `bb_ret` | `TR_RACK_PATTERN=off TR_RACK_BITBRAIN=melee TR_BITBRAIN_MEM=retained TR_BITBRAIN_LOG=1` |
+| `bb_learn` | `TR_RACK_PATTERN=off TR_RACK_BITBRAIN=melee TR_BITBRAIN_MEM=decay TR_BITBRAIN_GAINS=1.0,1.25,1.5,2.0 TR_BITBRAIN_LOG=1` |
+
+*Protocol:* **16 independent runs × 7 rounds per arm = 112 rounds/arm.** Each
+run is its own battle with fresh random initial positions (server
+`--enable-initial-position`); runs are not paired. A dirty tree cannot leak in:
+the frozen ModularBot is built with `git archive HEAD`.
+
+```
+commit        = 0f5cfe37b24952ae07fee0a7db526317ae127e6c
+binary sha256 = 11bba2735413bc35ab3b61ead711c51d2223183ad9da510799bc7d76b99b22ca
+movement      = tfil (shipped default) in every run — the A/B isolates the gun rack
+n             = 16 runs/arm, 7 rounds/run
+```
+
+`TR_RACK_BITBRAIN=melee` was verified as *melee-rack-only* (not `both`): the
+boot line reads `[env] rack active 1v1 = FULL` and
+`[env] rack active melee = BITBRAIN`, i.e. BitBrain is admitted **only** in the
+melee rack. The `pattern` arm reads `[env] rack active melee = PATTERN`.
+
+## Results
+
+### Arm summary
+
+```
+arm        runs   wins/rd    score    surv  rank  meanrank  score share  targets  tchanges
+bb_learn     16   112/112     2945    1050  1.00     1.000        60.2%     3.00     66.75
+bb_ret       16   112/112     2903    1047  1.00     1.000        59.4%     3.00     68.06
+bb_round     16   111/112     2998    1034  1.00     1.009        60.8%     3.00     68.75
+pattern      16   109/112     2965    1031  1.00     1.000        59.5%     3.00     66.44
+```
+
+`score` / `surv` are per-run means; `wins/rd` is pooled round wins.
+
+### Per-run values (never just the mean)
+
+```
+bb_learn  wins:  r1=7 r10=7 r11=7 r12=7 r13=7 r14=7 r15=7 r16=7 r2=7 r3=7 r4=7 r5=7 r6=7 r7=7 r8=7 r9=7
+          score: r1=2883 r10=2757 r11=2906 r12=3145 r13=2911 r14=3068 r15=2758 r16=2715 r2=3107 r3=2848 r4=3190 r5=2912 r6=2859 r7=3092 r8=2907 r9=3066
+          surv:  r1=1050 … (all 1050)
+          mrank: all 1.00
+bb_ret    wins:  r1=7 r10=7 r11=7 r12=7 r13=7 r14=7 r15=7 r16=7 r2=7 r3=7 r4=7 r5=7 r6=7 r7=7 r8=7 r9=7
+          score: r1=2891 r10=2770 r11=2792 r12=2934 r13=2943 r14=2890 r15=2817 r16=2999 r2=2994 r3=2913 r4=2920 r5=2890 r6=3011 r7=2945 r8=2943 r9=2802
+          surv:  r5=1000, all others 1050
+          mrank: all 1.00
+bb_round  wins:  r1=7 r10=6 r11=7 r12=7 r13=7 r14=7 r15=7 r16=7 r2=7 r3=7 r4=7 r5=7 r6=7 r7=7 r8=7 r9=7
+          score: r1=3040 r10=2944 r11=3125 r12=3110 r13=3037 r14=2993 r15=2985 r16=2842 r2=2835 r3=3045 r4=3180 r5=2952 r6=3126 r7=2927 r8=3021 r9=2804
+          surv:  r10=900, r9=950, all others 1050
+          mrank: r10=1.14, all others 1.00
+pattern   wins:  r1=7 r10=7 r11=7 r12=7 r13=7 r14=7 r15=7 r16=7 r2=7 r3=6 r4=7 r5=6 r6=7 r7=6 r8=7 r9=7
+          score: r1=3082 r10=2795 r11=2897 r12=2915 r13=3176 r14=2922 r15=2860 r16=2878 r2=3261 r3=2957 r4=3106 r5=2869 r6=3194 r7=2728 r8=2869 r9=2931
+          surv:  r3=1000, r7=900, r14=950, all others 1050
+          mrank: all 1.00
+```
+
+The only structural difference is that Pattern lost three rounds (r3, r5, r7) and
+`bb_round` one (r10); every other round is a ModularBot sweep. `surv` < 1050
+marks the runs where ModularBot died at least once. The raw per-run JSON for all
+64 runs is committed at
+`common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab/<arm>/run<N>.json`.
+
+### Statistics (per-run, two-sided)
+
+Permutation test (Monte-Carlo, 1,000,000 draws, seed `0x5eed5eed`, `p=(cnt+1)/(B+1)`)
+and Mann-Whitney U cross-check, reused verbatim from `tools/ab/ab_analyze.py`.
+`diff(A-B)` is `pattern − bitbrain`.
+
+```
+metric       A        B          diff(A-B)   perm p   MW p
+score        pattern  bb_learn     +19.75     0.7117   0.6109
+score        pattern  bb_ret       +61.63     0.1594   0.5590
+score        pattern  bb_round     -32.88     0.4900   0.3365
+survival     pattern  bb_learn     -18.75     0.2254   0.0800
+survival     pattern  bb_ret       -15.63     0.3507   0.2791
+survival     pattern  bb_round      -3.13     1.0000   0.6982
+wins         pattern  bb_learn      -0.188     0.2251   0.0795
+wins         pattern  bb_ret        -0.188     0.2251   0.0795
+wins         pattern  bb_round      -0.125     0.5984   0.3080
+mean_rank    pattern  bb_*          ±0.000     1.0000   0.35–1.00
+rank         pattern  bb_*          ±0.000     1.0000   1.0000
+score_share  pattern  bb_learn      -0.007     0.5082   0.6109
+score_share  pattern  bb_ret        +0.001     0.9046   0.8653
+score_share  pattern  bb_round      -0.013     0.2908   0.2662
+```
+
+### Minimum detectable effect (α=0.05 two-sided, 80 % power)
+
+`MDE = 2.8016 · sd(pattern) · sqrt(2/n)`, n=16/arm.
+
+```
+metric      sd(ref)    MDE      ref mean    MDE as % of mean
+score       152.85    151.40    2965.0           5.1 %
+survival     44.25     43.83    1031.3           4.3 %
+wins          0.40      0.40       6.81           5.9 %
+mean_rank     0.00      0.00       1.000          —
+```
+
+Every observed effect is **below its MDE**, so this is a *powered null*, not an
+under-powered one — at least for effects ≥ ~5 % of the score.
+
+## Liveness — the melee premise WAS exercised
+
+Target switching is the whole mechanism, so it had to be proven, not assumed.
+
+* **Arm applied:** the per-run boot report shows the rack actually flipped —
+  `pattern`: `[env] rack active melee = PATTERN`; `bb_*`:
+  `[env] rack active melee = BITBRAIN` with `TR_RACK_PATTERN=off`,
+  `TR_RACK_BITBRAIN=melee`. All 64 runs passed the liveness check (16/16 per arm).
+* **Movement held fixed:** `[env] TR_MOVEMENT = tfil (source: default)` in every
+  run, so the difference is the gun rack alone.
+* **Every run faced all three enemies and switched targets repeatedly.** From
+  the bot's own `[config] … target=#N` lines: **3.00 distinct targets/run** and
+  **66–69 target changes/run** (about 10 per round). Example transitions from one
+  run: `#1 → #4 → #2 → #4 → #1 → #2 → …`.
+* **BitBrain really reset on every switch.** `[bb-reset] reason=target_change`
+  fires once per target change: **66.75** (perRound), **68.19** (retained),
+  **66.75** (decay) per run — equal, within rounding, to the target-change count.
+  Example `[bb]` line from a live run:
+  `[bb] t=440 band=450.+ gain=0.25 shift=-3.39deg rate=0.818 n=11. ncand=5 trained=11 pend=29 dropped=95 mode=perRound`.
+  The `pattern` arm logs **zero** `[bb]`/`[bb-reset]` lines (BitBrain never
+  spawned), confirming the arms are cleanly separated.
+
+**So the premise held** (targets rotated, the gun reset), but the fast adaptation
+bought no measurable edge over Pattern's per-round wipe in this field.
+
+## Direct answer
+
+At **16 runs/arm (112 rounds/arm)**, in a 4-bot melee against
+WaveSurfer + PatternMover + RandomMover:
+
+* **Round wins:** BitBrain is *slightly* ahead (112/112 and 111/112 vs 109/112),
+  but the difference is **not significant** (perm p=0.225; MW p=0.080) and is
+  below the 0.40-wins/run MDE. Do **not** claim a win-rate gain from this.
+* **Survival:** **not detectable** (p=0.23–1.00).
+* **Placement:** **no difference** — ModularBot is rank 1 in every arm.
+* **Score/damage:** **not detectable** — differences of −63 to +33 points
+  (p=0.16–0.71) against an MDE of ±151 (≈5 %).
+
+The mechanism is plausible and was demonstrably exercised, but the owner's claim
+that BitBrain is "crushing in melee" is **not supported by this measurement**.
+The honest reading is the opposite of spin in either direction: **the first
+melee number is a null.**
+
+### Why the null is weak evidence in one direction
+
+The field is not discriminating enough to separate the guns on *outcome*:
+ModularBot's TFIL movement wins 97–100 % of rounds no matter which gun is in the
+rack, so wins/rank hit a ceiling. Only the score margin can move, and its MDE is
+~5 %. A smaller true gun effect (<5 % score) would be invisible here; a larger
+one would not.
+
+## Reproduce
+
+```sh
+# build the runner (once)
+nim c --nimcache:/tmp/nc_j116 --path:common_libs \
+  common_libs/tests/measure_melee_bitbrain_ab.nim
+
+# run the session (needs TR_SERVER_JAR + the TR runner jar; ~15–25 min under load)
+MELEE_RUNS=16 MELEE_ROUNDS=7 \
+  common_libs/tests/run_melee_bitbrain_ab.sh /tmp/melee_bitbrain_ab
+
+# analyze the committed fixtures (no Java needed)
+python3 common_libs/tests/analyze_melee_ab.py \
+  common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab
+```
+
+## Files
+
+* `common_libs/tests/measure_melee_bitbrain_ab.nim` — the runner (4-bot melee,
+  per-arm env, per-run liveness/JSON, binary built from `git archive HEAD`).
+* `common_libs/tests/run_melee_bitbrain_ab.sh` — parallel arm driver.
+* `common_libs/tests/analyze_melee_ab.py` — per-run table + permutation + MW +
+  MDE (reuses `tools/ab/ab_analyze.py`'s stats functions).
+* `common_libs/tests/fixtures/melee_bitbrain_ab/` — the 64 committed per-run
+  JSONs + `analysis.json` + `analysis_report.txt`.
+
+## MEASURED vs INFERRED
+
+**MEASURED:** commit `0f5cfe3`, binary `11bba27`; 4-bot melee, 4 arms × 16 runs
+× 7 rounds; the wins/survival/rank/score means and per-run values; the
+permutation p-values, Mann-Whitney p-values and MDEs; the rack boot lines, the
+3 distinct targets/run, 66–69 target changes/run and the per-switch `[bb-reset]`.
+All of the above are reproducible from the committed per-run JSON.
+
+**INFERRED:** that Pattern's history fragmentation is *the* reason to expect a
+melee gain; that `perRound`/`retained`/`decay` differ in adaptation speed in a
+way this test could resolve; that a stronger field (or a >5 % effect) is where a
+difference would show. None of these are claimed as measured.