learned movement: danger-map alignment diagnostic (corr(P(arrival bin), P(hit|bin)) = -0.342) in the gate + ledger

2026-09-26 10:45:26 +02:00
parent b4e54fc3cd
commit ee98827a62
3 changed files with 136 additions and 0 deletions
@@ -75,6 +75,47 @@ turn : -0.142, 0.000, 0.105

 cross-check with the canonical edges: log-loss(state) 4.9272, log-loss(global) 4.9739, Δ -0.0467, top-1 0.0393

+## F. is the DANGER MAP the module minimises the RIGHT one? (MEASURED)
+
+shots 54936, base hit rate 9.98%
+corr( P(arrival bin) , P(hit | arrival bin) ) over the 31 bins = -0.342
+safest bin by the histogram MASS the mover minimises: bin 1 (mass 1.9%, hit rate 14.1%)
+safest bin by the ACTUAL hit rate: bin 23 (mass 3.1%, hit rate 6.8%)
+
+| bin | P(hit) | P(arrival bin) |
+|---:|---:|---:|
+| 0 | 9.8% | 2.4% |
+| 1 | 14.1% | 1.9% |
+| 2 | 13.3% | 2.6% |
+| 3 | 10.8% | 2.3% |
+| 4 | 8.8% | 2.5% |
+| 5 | 7.8% | 2.9% |
+| 6 | 7.9% | 3.3% |
+| 7 | 8.8% | 3.5% |
+| 8 | 9.2% | 3.6% |
+| 9 | 9.1% | 3.8% |
+| 10 | 9.8% | 3.9% |
+| 11 | 11.0% | 4.0% |
+| 12 | 10.6% | 3.9% |
+| 13 | 11.1% | 4.1% |
+| 14 | 9.0% | 4.0% |
+| 15 | 9.8% | 4.6% |
+| 16 | 9.8% | 3.8% |
+| 17 | 9.2% | 3.9% |
+| 18 | 10.7% | 3.6% |
+| 19 | 8.8% | 3.5% |
+| 20 | 8.5% | 3.4% |
+| 21 | 7.9% | 3.5% |
+| 22 | 7.5% | 3.3% |
+| 23 | 6.8% | 3.1% |
+| 24 | 8.3% | 2.8% |
+| 25 | 7.2% | 2.6% |
+| 26 | 11.5% | 2.3% |
+| 27 | 13.1% | 2.2% |
+| 28 | 17.5% | 2.6% |
+| 29 | 16.2% | 2.8% |
+| 30 | 10.9% | 3.3% |
+
 ## MEASURED vs INFERRED

 * MEASURED: every number in this file, produced by the command in the