TMComposites gate: per-gun confidence faithful for 3 guns; no pair composes
Adds a per-sample intrinsic-confidence field (GunPrediction.confidence, threaded through FeedbackEvent/VirtualBullet, populated by Pattern, DecayGF, KNN, GuessFactor, Tsetlin, TMHorizon) and an offline recorder + analyzer that reproduce the paper's Figure 2 per gun and its Eq-8 composite. Measured on 3 held-out tr-bridge DrussGT battles (33k ticks, ~133k samples/gun): - FAITHFUL: DecayGF (rho +0.133), KNN (+0.090), Pattern (+0.064, weak). - GuessFactor is ANTI-faithful (rho -0.067); Tsetlin c_max is useless (0.001). - No pair of guns specialises complementarily: the same gun dominates both high-confidence slices in every pair. - Eq-8 alpha-normalised confidence-weighted composite: 18.41% vs Pattern 20.45% (McNemar p=3.1e-126). Faithful-only variant 18.68%, still loses. Shuffle control passes weakly (composite > shuffle, p=4e-14) so ~0.7pp of competence is real but ~2pp short. Offline veto: design is dead. See docs/tmcomposites_gate.md.
This commit is contained in:
@@ -35,6 +35,14 @@ type
|
||||
GunPrediction* = object
|
||||
## Absolute (x, y) where the gun predicts the enemy will be.
|
||||
x*, y*: float
|
||||
confidence*: float
|
||||
## The gun's INTRINSIC, per-sample confidence in THIS prediction, on any
|
||||
## positive scale the gun likes (the TMComposites gate normalises it by
|
||||
## the sample range, Eq 7). 0.0 means "this gun has no confidence signal"
|
||||
## (every deterministic geometric gun): such a gun casts no composite
|
||||
## vote. Deliberately NOT a rolling hit-rate: that is the selector
|
||||
## mechanism already measured negative (docs/gun_rack_analysis.md).
|
||||
## See docs/tmcomposites_gate.md and common_libs/tests/measure_tmcomposites.nim.
|
||||
|
||||
FeedbackEvent* = object
|
||||
## Outcome of a resolved virtual bullet.
|
||||
@@ -45,6 +53,7 @@ type
|
||||
powerBin*: int ## index into PowerBins the bullet belongs to
|
||||
missDistance*: float ## px; < BotRadius = hit
|
||||
hit*: bool
|
||||
confidence*: float ## copied from the spawn-time GunPrediction (above)
|
||||
|
||||
proc bulletSpeed*(power: float): float {.inline.} =
|
||||
20.0 - 3.0 * power
|
||||
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user