TMComposites gate: per-gun confidence faithful for 3 guns; no pair composes
Adds a per-sample intrinsic-confidence field (GunPrediction.confidence, threaded through FeedbackEvent/VirtualBullet, populated by Pattern, DecayGF, KNN, GuessFactor, Tsetlin, TMHorizon) and an offline recorder + analyzer that reproduce the paper's Figure 2 per gun and its Eq-8 composite. Measured on 3 held-out tr-bridge DrussGT battles (33k ticks, ~133k samples/gun): - FAITHFUL: DecayGF (rho +0.133), KNN (+0.090), Pattern (+0.064, weak). - GuessFactor is ANTI-faithful (rho -0.067); Tsetlin c_max is useless (0.001). - No pair of guns specialises complementarily: the same gun dominates both high-confidence slices in every pair. - Eq-8 alpha-normalised confidence-weighted composite: 18.41% vs Pattern 20.45% (McNemar p=3.1e-126). Faithful-only variant 18.68%, still loses. Shuffle control passes weakly (composite > shuffle, p=4e-14) so ~0.7pp of competence is real but ~2pp short. Offline veto: design is dead. See docs/tmcomposites_gate.md.
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@@ -141,6 +141,9 @@ proc predict*(g: var GFGun, state: WorldState, bulletSpeed: float): GunPredictio
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GunPrediction(
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x: clamp(px, BotRadius, state.arenaWidth - BotRadius),
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y: clamp(py, BotRadius, state.arenaHeight - BotRadius),
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# TMComposites Eq 4 analogue: the GF histogram is the class distribution over
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# GF bins, so the class-sum max c_max is the peak bin's accumulated weight.
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confidence: g.bins[peak],
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)
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proc onResult*(g: var GFGun, e: FeedbackEvent) =
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