movement final: pre-register the ship criterion before the confirmation battles

docs/movement_campaign.md

@@ -1164,3 +1164,35 @@ the default flip is a separate, explicit decision and was NOT made here.
 |---|---|---:|---|---|
 | `/tmp/ab/j119_b3` | `1256357` | 270 (0 failed; 1 excluded: Ascendant/strafe r1) | strafe, tfil, fast_flip, slow_flip, wide_spread, narrow | nothing beats strafe; wide_spread +0.11 NS (p=0.55) |
 | `/tmp/ab/j119_b4` | `1256357` | 270 (0 failed, 0 excluded) | strafe, tfil, bullet_strong, field_strong, field_off, wall_tight | nothing beats strafe; field_strong and field_off detectably WORSE |
+
+---
+
+## Final confirmation + SHIP — PRE-REGISTRATION
+
+> **PRE-REGISTERED BEFORE THE BATTLES (this section is committed, and its commit
+> is the frozen binary's source, before the first battle is launched).** Session
+> `/tmp/ab/j120_final`. Arms file `tools/ab/arms_movement_final.txt`, panel
+> `tools/ab/panel_movement.txt` (frozen), **3 arms × 15 opponents × 5 runs × 3
+> rounds = 225 battles**, conc 6, `--reference tfil`.
+
+**THE PRE-REGISTERED SHIP CRITERION (fixed before fighting).** Ship the flip of
+`TR_MOVEMENT`'s default from `tfil` to `strafe` **only if**, on this frozen
+panel and this one frozen binary, `strafe` beats `tfil` head-to-head on the
+PRIMARY metric *round wins/run* with **both**:
+
+1. the **95% CI on Δwins/run excluding 0**; **and**
+2. the **cross-opponent sign test favouring `strafe`** (p < 0.05).
+
+This is stricter than the campaign's §1 rule 2 (which would let a survival win
+carry a damage-neutral arm): the ship decision requires the *win* metric itself
+to clear both bars. If it does not pass, **do not ship** — say so and stop; that
+is a fully successful outcome. This batch uses **5 runs/arm (vs 3 in every
+previous batch)** for higher power; `wide_spread` (the only positive point
+estimate from Batches 3–4, +0.11/run, NS) rides along as the single challenger.
+
+**Pre-registered prediction (before the battles):** `strafe` passes both bars
+and ships; `wide_spread` ties `strafe` (no separable win); `tfil` is not
+preferred by any primary metric. A wrong prediction is recorded as wrong.
+
+**Outcome:** pending — filled in below after the session.
+

tools/ab/arms_movement_final.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
+# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+# arms_movement_final.txt — FINAL CONFIRMATION of the movement champion, run at
+# HIGHER POWER than any previous batch (5 runs/arm vs 3), on the FROZEN panel
+# tools/ab/panel_movement.txt.
+#
+# Prior data this batch is built on (docs/movement_campaign.md §3–§5, Batches
+# 3+4 consolidated, MEASURED on the frozen panel across four independent
+# sessions, ~900 battles):
+#   * `TR_MOVEMENT=strafe` (current defaults) BEATS the shipped `tfil` on round
+#     wins in EVERY session: +0.38/+0.33 (B1), +0.58/+0.47 (B2), and 53.0% vs
+#     42.2% (B3), 52.6% vs 38.5% (B4) — all 95% CIs excluding 0, sign test
+#     favouring strafe.
+#   * It wins by SURVIVAL: incoming hit rate ~12% vs tfil's ~18%, ~50 less
+#     damage taken/run, NO detectable damage cost.
+#   * 8 further arms (reversal timing, spread/reach, heat-field strength, wall
+#     margin/curvature) were swept in Batches 3–4: NOTHING beats `strafe`.
+#     `wide_spread` is the only positive point estimate (+0.11 wins/run, NS,
+#     p=0.55, MDE 0.56) — a TIE, carried here as the single challenger.
+#
+# SHIP CRITERION (pre-registered in docs/movement_campaign.md before the
+# battles): ship only if `strafe` beats `tfil` head-to-head with the 95% CI on
+# wins/run EXCLUDING 0 AND the cross-opponent sign test FAVOURING `strafe`.
+#
+# REFERENCE is `tfil` — every delta below is (arm − tfil), opponent by opponent.
+#
+# Format: name | ENV=value ENV=value | label
+# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+# 1. THE CHAMPION under confirmation — current strafe defaults.
+strafe | TR_MOVEMENT=strafe | champion — current strafe defaults (candidate to ship)
+
+# 2. THE ARM TO BEAT — the currently shipped default, explicitly selected.
+#    (The explicit `TR_MOVEMENT=tfil` matters: it also proves the override path
+#    stays reachable after any default flip.)
+tfil | TR_MOVEMENT=tfil | shipped baseline — explicit tfil override
+
+# 3. THE ONLY CHALLENGER with a positive wins point estimate from Batches 3–4
+#    (+0.11/run, damage-neutral, not distinguishable — expected to tie).
+wide_spread | TR_MOVEMENT=strafe TR_STRAFE_SPREAD=2 TR_STRAFE_REACH=216 | Batches 3–4 positive-point challenger (±2 tiles, 216px)