1 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
SirStone d85ff53d34 State-window gate: a temporal window of wave-relative states does NOT beat a single state
Re-runs the SBC coincidence premise as a cheap veto test on the 70-battle
live-vs-DrussGT corpus (/tmp/tfil_ab2).  Defines the wave-relative state
(lat/vlat/toa/room/turn, 5/7.9/10 bits at Q=2/3/4), quantises the miss offset
at the bullet's arrival into 7 bins, and sweeps window length K in
{1,4,8,16,32,48} with an interpolated suffix-backoff model under a BY-BATTLE
70/30 split (3 seeds).

Result: NO.  On the pre-fire frame the window is worse than the single
fire-tick state at every K/Q/A (e.g. K=8 costs +0.35..+0.46 bits).  On the
during-flight frame the entire apparent gain is the later decision tick, not
the window; the single state alone drops 2.70 -> 1.31 bits as K goes 1 -> 32.
The shuffle-order control confirms recency matters but the windows do not:
by Q=4/K=8 they average ~1 observation and never recur.  The single state
survives as a strong predictor (log-loss 2.346 vs 2.698 majority; bin
accuracy 0.409 vs 0.235).

Gate only: no gun, no live-win claim.
2026-09-25 08:43:36 +02:00