298ea6d586a5db53a2643896cbefdeafb4492091
2 Commits
| Author | SHA1 | Message | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 SirStone
|
69debbe347 |
Re-adaptation: the sliding WINDOW is a control-validated +9.3pp on late accuracy
The user's first-hand diagnosis: "once the pattern is learnt enough we hit DrussGT, but as soon as it adapts we are not fast enough to re-adapt again." The gun kept EVERY sample for the whole battle (which the user explicitly asked for), so stale evidence weighed the same as new evidence - accumulation without forgetting. TASK 1 - THE CURVE, MEASURED FIRST (prequential side accuracy, 15 rounds x 4 horizons, deciles of the eval stream): arm early% late% decay frozen (early only) 64.9 61.4 -3.5 accum (shipped) 76.4 75.3 -1.1 window N=150 84.7 84.6 -0.0 resetdrop 5pp 83.2 84.3 +1.0 **The decay IS real but modest and LOCALIZED IN THE LAST ~30% of the round** (last-third vs middle-third: frozen -7.7pp, accum -3.7, window -1.3, resetdrop -1.3). TASK 3 - WHICH FIX HELPS (late-half accuracy, shuffled control in parens): accum (shipped) 75.3 **window N=150 84.6 (51)** +9.3pp **resetdrop 5pp 84.3 (51)** +9.0pp rehearse-all (retrain, NO forgetting) 79.5 - **Sliding window: +9.3pp late (within-round), +9.7 (cross-round), +10.3 (shield).** The shuffled control stays ~50-51%, so it learns the ENEMY, not noise. - **Forgetting is the essential ingredient**: the same periodic retrain WITHOUT forgetting reaches only ~79.5%, so roughly half the gain is the retraining mechanics and half is the forgetting. - Change detection ties the window on late accuracy and gives the best decay, but at a 5pp threshold it fired 300-500 times in the offline stream - noisy. - INERTIA IS REDUNDANT WITH THE WINDOW: lower inertia helps the keep-everything model a lot (accum late 75.3 -> 83.3 at N=8) but leaves the window FLAT (84.6-84.7 at every N). Low inertia and forgetting are SUBSTITUTES, and forgetting is the robust one - `TR_TMHORIZON_NSTATES=8` is NOT the primary fix. VERDICT: SHIPPING CANDIDATE = `TR_TMHORIZON_WINDOW=150`, kept at default 0 until a live A/B confirms. HONEST CAVEATS THAT SET EXPECTATIONS: - The fixtures are OPEN-LOOP (DrussGT does not react to our bullets), so a true mid-round adaptation is NOT present; the dominant measured effect is the LEVEL gap, not the decay magnitude. The user's "it adapts" magnitude is still INFERRED. - The harness uses a STRAIGHT-LINE base while the live gun uses Pattern's prediction, and it ignores the h-tick label delay, so its absolute side accuracy (75-85%) is INFLATED: the same gun measured ~52% = chance live against DrussGT. So +9.3pp is a real ARM DELTA, not a promise that the gun now clears the ~80% accuracy wall that hits need. A live A/B must decide. Adds `measure_tm_readapt.nim` (prequential harness with the mandatory shuffled control, within-round + cross-round protocols, inertia sweep) and its captured results. test_tm_horizon 79 -> 104 (five new groups). test_tm_diag 48, test_tm_automata_diag 55, test_tm_clause_shape 66, test_rack_membership 48 pass. ModularBot compiles. .gitignore: switched from a broad `measure_*` pattern to EXPLICIT binary names. The broad rule was too blunt - it also excluded the `.txt` results file, which made `git add` refuse the whole commit twice. Sources stay tracked; binaries do not. |
||
|
SirStone
|
aed579b3af |
TM horizon: retain learning ACROSS ROUNDS, reset only when the ENEMY changes
The user's requirement: "every battle i means from round 1 to round end-battle, so retain all learning until the enemy change." What was built wiped the Tsetlin machines EVERY ROUND, in two places (`onRoundStarted` and the gun's own tick-regression self-reset), so in a 7-round battle each round started cold, trained ~360 samples and threw them away - discarding most of its one chance to do what was asked: overfit the current enemy over the whole battle. THE FIX - two kinds of state, two triggers: - **`resetRoundState` (per ROUND)**: the observation ring, pending/deferred labels, the bullet proxy, motion history, per-tick caches, `roundStartTrained`. These MUST clear every round, because bots teleport back to the starting corners between rounds - an old position would build a garbage label. (That exact class of bug shipped 36-58% wrong labels in the old gun.) - **`resetLearning` (per BATTLE / per ENEMY)**: both Tsetlin machines, `trained`, `sideCorrect/sideTotal`, all histograms, the magnitude median, `pendingDropped`, `observedTargetId`. These now SURVIVE round boundaries. Triggers for the machine wipe: `onGameStarted` (primary) plus a redundant `roundNumber <= 1` fallback in `onRoundStarted`; and a TARGET CHANGE (`targetChanged`, knob `TR_TMHORIZON_RESET_ON_TARGET` default on - a no-op in 1v1, fires on melee target switches; first acquisition never wipes). The tick-regression self-reset now clears ONLY per-round state. Still NO cross-battle persistence: grep for file I/O in the gun finds none. PROOF IT WORKS (live 2-round battle, `TR_RACK_PATTERN=off TR_RACK_TMHORIZON=both`): [tmh-reset] reason=game_start trained_was=0 [tmh-reset] reason=round1 trained_was=0 ...exactly TWO reset lines in the whole battle, both at battle start, and NONE at the round-2 boundary. And the per-round summaries: [tmh-round] trained=1249 thisRound=1249 ... sideAcc=711/1177 (60.4%) [tmh-round] trained=2226 thisRound=977 ... sideAcc=1361/2154 (63.2%) `trained` CLIMBED 1249 -> 2226 across the boundary, and side accuracy rose 60.4% -> 63.2% in round 2 (one battle - suggestive, not proof). Unit tests: `test_tm_horizon` 79 (was 54), including "trained SURVIVES the boundary", "clause states SURVIVE", "trained climbs round1->round2", "game-start wipes and all clauses end Exclude", "different enemy wipes / same enemy does not / knob-off does not", and crucially "a label CANNOT be built across a round boundary" (ringValidCount==0, ringHas(oldTick)==false, pendingCount==0) - the single most dangerous interaction of this change. Guards: test_tm_horizon 79, test_rack_membership 48, test_gun_harness 39, test_vbullet_metric 11, test_power_selection 3, test_adaptive_radar 41, test_tfil_ring_weights 24, test_power_policy 26, test_ram_decision 40, test_selector_tiebreak 19, test_tm_pattern_registration 20, test_vbullet_admit_gate 12, test_tm_diag 48, test_tm_automata_diag 55, test_tm_clause_shape 66. acceptance_offline_vs_online 12/12 VERDICT PASS. Shipped rack unchanged: DefaultRackMembership is still Pattern-only, TMHORIZON off. Residual (pre-existing, out of scope, stated): the internal base `PatternMatcherGun` has a rolling move-history buffer that is NOT cleared at round boundaries - it never was, and the SHIPPED Pattern gun carries history across rounds too. It cannot affect label correctness (labels come from `g.ring`), only base-prediction quality in a round's first ticks. |