Adds a per-sample intrinsic-confidence field (GunPrediction.confidence,
threaded through FeedbackEvent/VirtualBullet, populated by Pattern, DecayGF,
KNN, GuessFactor, Tsetlin, TMHorizon) and an offline recorder + analyzer that
reproduce the paper's Figure 2 per gun and its Eq-8 composite.
Measured on 3 held-out tr-bridge DrussGT battles (33k ticks, ~133k samples/gun):
- FAITHFUL: DecayGF (rho +0.133), KNN (+0.090), Pattern (+0.064, weak).
- GuessFactor is ANTI-faithful (rho -0.067); Tsetlin c_max is useless (0.001).
- No pair of guns specialises complementarily: the same gun dominates both
high-confidence slices in every pair.
- Eq-8 alpha-normalised confidence-weighted composite: 18.41% vs Pattern
20.45% (McNemar p=3.1e-126). Faithful-only variant 18.68%, still loses.
Shuffle control passes weakly (composite > shuffle, p=4e-14) so ~0.7pp of
competence is real but ~2pp short. Offline veto: design is dead.
See docs/tmcomposites_gate.md.
