59c5af0499086cc28fb6447fb24886f99cd669ba
40 Commits
| Author | SHA1 | Message | Date | |
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 SirStone
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59c5af0499 |
j140 fix: a pre-rename .env must not admit the disabled BitBrain net gun
TR_RACK_BITBRAIN=both is what the owner's live .env carries, and with the new ADE+SBC gun registered at id 17 under the SAME rack name that value was also landing on id 17 - so a gun that was not enabled (TR_BITBRAIN_NET unset) was admitted into the rack and its placeholder predictions were pushed into the shared VirtualTracker ring, which shifts every other gun's learning order. While the namespace is LEGACY, loadRackMembership now skips id 17's TR_RACK_BITBRAIN entirely, so that value addresses ONLY the gun it always addressed (LEADGAIN, id 16). ModularBot additionally gates admission on BitbrainNetGun.gunAdmitted(), and test_bitbrain_net pins the truth table: over 6 (rack, switch) settings there is NO configuration that admits the gun while leaving it disabled. Guards: test_env_report 25, test_rack_membership 49 (was 48; the revert one-liner now sets TR_BITBRAIN_NET=1 and one truth-table check was added), test_tm_pattern_registration 20, test_bitbrain 56, test_gun_harness 39, test_tfil_commit_env 30, test_lead_gain_registration 13, test_lead_gain_legacy 24, test_bitbrain_net 44. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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SirStone
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e9302bc9f6 |
j140 rebuild a real BitBrain gun: ADE+SBC at rack id 17, default off, and measure its scaling
The BITBRAIN name was sitting on a gun with no network in it. This is the gun
that actually runs the algorithm: an ADE layer (thresholded random projections
with ONLINE threshold adaptation) feeding the SBC head from
common_libs/bitbrain/, with the counted+decay mode available.
common_libs/guns/bitbrain_net.nim the gun
rack name BITBRAIN, rack id 17 (rack 17 -> 18 guns), both new guns default OFF
admitted by TR_RACK_BITBRAIN=both AND TR_BITBRAIN_NET=1 (the switch that also
disowns LEADGAIN's legacy TR_BITBRAIN_* aliases)
OUTPUT: a fine-grained aim CORRECTION on top of Pattern - the probability-
weighted mean of the nClasses class centres under inferProb - not a direct aim
point from the argmax. That is the shape docs/bitbrain_gate.md measured, and
Pattern is already a strong predictor, so the net's job is the signed residual.
Below TR_BITBRAIN_MINOBS the shift is exactly 0 and Pattern is returned
unchanged.
INPUT: a CONFIGURED set of FEATURE BLOCKS (TR_BITBRAIN_FEATURES=name:W), each
block's width == its resolution, laid out as a thermometer code over 0/255 slots
(so an ADE synapse 'matches' when its polarity agrees with the slot and a random
ADE fires iff its w synapses all match, rate 2^-w). Default is 52 slots over 9
blocks. NO long temporal window, per docs/state_window_gate.md: the only history
is a 12-tick ring feeding three rate/turn quantities.
Every knob env-configurable: _INPUT (width), _NCLASSES, _NADES, _WIDTHS
(clause widths), _FEATURES, _SPAN, _MODE, _DECAY_EVERY, _DECAY_SHIFT,
_MINOBS, _ADAPT_EVERY, _TARGET, _NETSEED, _NETLOG, _NET_RESET_ON_TARGET.
MEASURED SCALING (measure_bitbrain_scaling.nim, 3 recorded runs, 37412 ticks,
-d:release, one predict per power bin per tick, timed region = predicts only):
RAM 1.59 MB default (98.6% SBC tensors); linear in nClasses, QUADRATIC in
nAde, FLAT in input width; counted/bitset = 7.30x on RAM, ~1x on time.
ms/tick 2.70 default = 21% of the 13.16 ms budget; 64 classes busts it (149%),
nAde 512 uses 74%, nAde 64 uses 2%.
CAPACITY vs ACCURACY: over a 100x RAM range the offline mean |err| moves
17.254 -> 17.115 deg around Pattern's 16.964, and the sign flips along the
nClasses axis, so it is noise, not a trend. The corrector is consistently
slightly WORSE than Pattern. The ceiling is the STATE, not the classifier.
VETO-CAPABLE OFFLINE CHECK ONLY (docs/offline_harness_trust.md), never
presented as a live win.
ENGAGEMENT is proven, not assumed: test_bitbrain_net.nim (42 checks) shows 0
bytes before first use, different inputs -> different class outputs, a learn
raises SBC occupancy, bitset learn idempotent while counted learn is monotone,
threshold adaptation runs, and the global RNG is untouched.
Parity: shipped rack still onlyPattern, shipped movement still strafe. Guards:
test_env_report 25, test_rack_membership 48, test_tm_pattern_registration 20,
test_lead_gain_registration 13, test_lead_gain_legacy 24, test_bitbrain 56,
test_gun_harness 39, test_tfil_commit_env 30, test_bitbrain_net 42.
Clean archive build: [SuccessX].
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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SirStone
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7a6237ec20 |
j140 rename the lead-gain corrector: BitBrain -> LEADGAIN (+ legacy TR_BITBRAIN_* aliases)
The gun at rack id 16 learned a multiplier for Pattern's lead, separately
per range band. It was called BITBRAIN and shipped a TR_BITBRAIN_* prefix,
which is why the name read as a neural network it no longer contains.
guns/bitbrain_gun.nim -> guns/lead_gain.nim (rack id 16 UNCHANGED)
RackGunNames[16] BITBRAIN -> LEADGAIN
TR_BITBRAIN_* knobs -> TR_LEADGAIN_*
[bb] log line -> [lg]
BACKWARD COMPATIBILITY is mandatory: the live .env carries
TR_RACK_BITBRAIN=both, TR_BITBRAIN_GAINS, TR_BITBRAIN_MEM=decay and
TR_BITBRAIN_LOG=1, and those must keep behaving identically. The new ADE+SBC
gun (next commit) claims the BITBRAIN name and the TR_BITBRAIN_* prefix, so
the namespace is disambiguated by ONE deterministic switch, TR_BITBRAIN_NET
(default 0):
TR_BITBRAIN_NET unset/0 -> LEGACY: the 14 frozen legacy suffixes are aliases
for TR_LEADGAIN_*, and TR_RACK_BITBRAIN still
selects rack id 16. One [depr] line on stderr
names the new spelling of each honoured knob.
TR_BITBRAIN_NET = 1 -> the TR_BITBRAIN_* names belong to the new gun.
The legacy suffix set and the new gun's knob set are DISJOINT, so no name is
ever claimed twice; the new name always wins over its alias.
Parity: shipped rack is still onlyPattern, shipped movement is still strafe.
Guards unchanged: test_env_report 25, test_rack_membership 48,
test_tm_pattern_registration 20, test_lead_gain_registration 13 (was
test_bitbrain_registration), test_bitbrain 56, test_gun_harness 39,
test_tfil_commit_env 30. New: test_lead_gain_legacy 24.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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SirStone
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36c4334487 | bitbrain gun README: the gain warning was wrong and contradicted its own verdict section (it recommended the direction measured decisively harmful) | ||
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SirStone
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7516ca47c0 | docs: quick-recap README for bitbrain gun (inputs/outputs, knobs, verdict) | ||
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SirStone
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2a98aba91b | gun j123 Task A+B prereg: expose Pattern's TR_PATTERN_LEN/TR_PATTERN_DEPTH (default parity) and pre-register the 6-arm match-parameter sweep | ||
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SirStone
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f58d65d2e8 |
TMComposites gate: per-gun confidence faithful for 3 guns; no pair composes
Adds a per-sample intrinsic-confidence field (GunPrediction.confidence, threaded through FeedbackEvent/VirtualBullet, populated by Pattern, DecayGF, KNN, GuessFactor, Tsetlin, TMHorizon) and an offline recorder + analyzer that reproduce the paper's Figure 2 per gun and its Eq-8 composite. Measured on 3 held-out tr-bridge DrussGT battles (33k ticks, ~133k samples/gun): - FAITHFUL: DecayGF (rho +0.133), KNN (+0.090), Pattern (+0.064, weak). - GuessFactor is ANTI-faithful (rho -0.067); Tsetlin c_max is useless (0.001). - No pair of guns specialises complementarily: the same gun dominates both high-confidence slices in every pair. - Eq-8 alpha-normalised confidence-weighted composite: 18.41% vs Pattern 20.45% (McNemar p=3.1e-126). Faithful-only variant 18.68%, still loses. Shuffle control passes weakly (composite > shuffle, p=4e-14) so ~0.7pp of competence is real but ~2pp short. Offline veto: design is dead. See docs/tmcomposites_gate.md. |
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SirStone
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2747ebd323 |
BitBrain: TR_BITBRAIN_GAINS env knob (candidate set + fixed-gain degenerate)
Task A of campaign phase 2: the lead-gain candidate set is now pure env, so the live arms need no recompile. - common_libs/guns/bitbrain_gun.nim: BB_GAINS_ENV (TR_BITBRAIN_GAINS); the candidate list is parsed once at gun construction into a dynamic seq, so the hit counts/hit rates are sized to it. Unset/unparsable -> the shipped BB_CAND set [0,0.25,0.5,0.75,1.0] (byte-identical behaviour). Exactly ONE candidate degenerates to a FIXED gain applied from the first shot (learning bypassed), still gated to the long bands. parseGains clamps to [0,8], de-dupes and sorts so the argmax tie rule is unchanged. The [bb] line now prints the APPLIED gain AND the resulting angular shift, so a run's correction is auditable from stdout. - ModularBot_garage/src/env_report.nim: emit TR_BITBRAIN_GAINS (resolved candidate set) and add BB_GAINS_ENV to the known-name list. - tools/ab/arms_leadgain.txt: the 6-arm phase-2 sweep definition. |
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SirStone
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c305ef4212 |
BitBrain campaign phase 1: the missing gain sweep and BitBrain as a lead-gain corrector
Task A — the gain region Phase 0 never covered (gain < 1). Extend the prediction-quality ruler with gain 0.25/0.50/0.75 arms and a fixed causal per-band arm. Full 70-run result: the hitProxy-argmax curve is [1.00, 1.00, 1.00, 0.00, 0.00] — Pattern below 300 px, HeadOn above — worth +0.13 pp at 300-450 and +2.16 pp at 450+ (0.0767 -> 0.0984). Lead correlation is identical for every g>0 (Pearson is scale-invariant), so a shrinking gain adds no lead information; and the least-squares optimum [1,1,1,1,0.25,0.25] diverges from the hitProxy optimum because Pattern's lead errors are bimodal. Task B — rebuild guns/bitbrain_gun.nim as a lead-gain corrector: aim = LOS + gain*(patternAim - LOS), gain learned online per range band by ranking candidate gains on the hit-probability proxy (the observed lead label via tmhObservedAt), gated to range >= 300 px. ADE+SBC output removed. Offline (70 runs): Pattern below 300 px, +0.37 pp at 300-450, +1.90 pp at 450+ (hitProxy 0.0957 vs 0.0767), matching the fixed rule to within 0.27 pp at 450+ and exceeding it at 300-450. ~0.0007 ms/tick marginal (old gun ~0.114 ms/tick). Default off; rack membership, env report and guard tests (bitbrain 32, registration 13, rack 48, tm_pattern 20, env_report) unchanged and green. Ledger: docs/bitbrain_campaign.md Phase 1, including the three on-file negatives and the causal-shippability note. No live claim. |
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SirStone
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795a0e59fe |
BitBrain gun (id 16): Pattern-relative ADE+SBC aim corrector, default off
Wire the verified common_libs/bitbrain ADE+SBC library into ModularBot as a
fine-grained angular corrector on top of Pattern's prediction, the shape the
offline gate test measured (argmax readout over N correction classes).
- common_libs/guns/bitbrain_gun.nim: new gun. Input = the existing TMHorizon
53 bits (tmhBaseBits + tmhLits); output = argmax class centre over
+-TR_BITBRAIN_RANGE, applied by rotating the Pattern point around the shooter
exactly as tmhApplyShift does. Label = the +h-tick fact from TmHorizonGun's
own observation ring (never across a round). Prequential (defer + resolve).
AD layer synthesised online for our binary inputs (center=0): heuristic
cold-start thresholds + running-histogram ~1% percentile init + the library's
adaptThresholds. Memory modes perRound (default, measured best) / retained /
decay (periodic partial SBC wipe). Lazy network build + local RNG, so the
default path builds nothing and consumes no global randomness.
- tm_horizon.nim: export tmhUpdateHistory and add tmhObservedAt (label seam).
- selector.nim: register BITBRAIN at rack id 16, default rmOff, in the SAME
commit as the id and the wiring (the
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SirStone
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69debbe347 |
Re-adaptation: the sliding WINDOW is a control-validated +9.3pp on late accuracy
The user's first-hand diagnosis: "once the pattern is learnt enough we hit DrussGT, but as soon as it adapts we are not fast enough to re-adapt again." The gun kept EVERY sample for the whole battle (which the user explicitly asked for), so stale evidence weighed the same as new evidence - accumulation without forgetting. TASK 1 - THE CURVE, MEASURED FIRST (prequential side accuracy, 15 rounds x 4 horizons, deciles of the eval stream): arm early% late% decay frozen (early only) 64.9 61.4 -3.5 accum (shipped) 76.4 75.3 -1.1 window N=150 84.7 84.6 -0.0 resetdrop 5pp 83.2 84.3 +1.0 **The decay IS real but modest and LOCALIZED IN THE LAST ~30% of the round** (last-third vs middle-third: frozen -7.7pp, accum -3.7, window -1.3, resetdrop -1.3). TASK 3 - WHICH FIX HELPS (late-half accuracy, shuffled control in parens): accum (shipped) 75.3 **window N=150 84.6 (51)** +9.3pp **resetdrop 5pp 84.3 (51)** +9.0pp rehearse-all (retrain, NO forgetting) 79.5 - **Sliding window: +9.3pp late (within-round), +9.7 (cross-round), +10.3 (shield).** The shuffled control stays ~50-51%, so it learns the ENEMY, not noise. - **Forgetting is the essential ingredient**: the same periodic retrain WITHOUT forgetting reaches only ~79.5%, so roughly half the gain is the retraining mechanics and half is the forgetting. - Change detection ties the window on late accuracy and gives the best decay, but at a 5pp threshold it fired 300-500 times in the offline stream - noisy. - INERTIA IS REDUNDANT WITH THE WINDOW: lower inertia helps the keep-everything model a lot (accum late 75.3 -> 83.3 at N=8) but leaves the window FLAT (84.6-84.7 at every N). Low inertia and forgetting are SUBSTITUTES, and forgetting is the robust one - `TR_TMHORIZON_NSTATES=8` is NOT the primary fix. VERDICT: SHIPPING CANDIDATE = `TR_TMHORIZON_WINDOW=150`, kept at default 0 until a live A/B confirms. HONEST CAVEATS THAT SET EXPECTATIONS: - The fixtures are OPEN-LOOP (DrussGT does not react to our bullets), so a true mid-round adaptation is NOT present; the dominant measured effect is the LEVEL gap, not the decay magnitude. The user's "it adapts" magnitude is still INFERRED. - The harness uses a STRAIGHT-LINE base while the live gun uses Pattern's prediction, and it ignores the h-tick label delay, so its absolute side accuracy (75-85%) is INFLATED: the same gun measured ~52% = chance live against DrussGT. So +9.3pp is a real ARM DELTA, not a promise that the gun now clears the ~80% accuracy wall that hits need. A live A/B must decide. Adds `measure_tm_readapt.nim` (prequential harness with the mandatory shuffled control, within-round + cross-round protocols, inertia sweep) and its captured results. test_tm_horizon 79 -> 104 (five new groups). test_tm_diag 48, test_tm_automata_diag 55, test_tm_clause_shape 66, test_rack_membership 48 pass. ModularBot compiles. .gitignore: switched from a broad `measure_*` pattern to EXPLICIT binary names. The broad rule was too blunt - it also excluded the `.txt` results file, which made `git add` refuse the whole commit twice. Sources stay tracked; binaries do not. |
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SirStone
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aed579b3af |
TM horizon: retain learning ACROSS ROUNDS, reset only when the ENEMY changes
The user's requirement: "every battle i means from round 1 to round end-battle, so retain all learning until the enemy change." What was built wiped the Tsetlin machines EVERY ROUND, in two places (`onRoundStarted` and the gun's own tick-regression self-reset), so in a 7-round battle each round started cold, trained ~360 samples and threw them away - discarding most of its one chance to do what was asked: overfit the current enemy over the whole battle. THE FIX - two kinds of state, two triggers: - **`resetRoundState` (per ROUND)**: the observation ring, pending/deferred labels, the bullet proxy, motion history, per-tick caches, `roundStartTrained`. These MUST clear every round, because bots teleport back to the starting corners between rounds - an old position would build a garbage label. (That exact class of bug shipped 36-58% wrong labels in the old gun.) - **`resetLearning` (per BATTLE / per ENEMY)**: both Tsetlin machines, `trained`, `sideCorrect/sideTotal`, all histograms, the magnitude median, `pendingDropped`, `observedTargetId`. These now SURVIVE round boundaries. Triggers for the machine wipe: `onGameStarted` (primary) plus a redundant `roundNumber <= 1` fallback in `onRoundStarted`; and a TARGET CHANGE (`targetChanged`, knob `TR_TMHORIZON_RESET_ON_TARGET` default on - a no-op in 1v1, fires on melee target switches; first acquisition never wipes). The tick-regression self-reset now clears ONLY per-round state. Still NO cross-battle persistence: grep for file I/O in the gun finds none. PROOF IT WORKS (live 2-round battle, `TR_RACK_PATTERN=off TR_RACK_TMHORIZON=both`): [tmh-reset] reason=game_start trained_was=0 [tmh-reset] reason=round1 trained_was=0 ...exactly TWO reset lines in the whole battle, both at battle start, and NONE at the round-2 boundary. And the per-round summaries: [tmh-round] trained=1249 thisRound=1249 ... sideAcc=711/1177 (60.4%) [tmh-round] trained=2226 thisRound=977 ... sideAcc=1361/2154 (63.2%) `trained` CLIMBED 1249 -> 2226 across the boundary, and side accuracy rose 60.4% -> 63.2% in round 2 (one battle - suggestive, not proof). Unit tests: `test_tm_horizon` 79 (was 54), including "trained SURVIVES the boundary", "clause states SURVIVE", "trained climbs round1->round2", "game-start wipes and all clauses end Exclude", "different enemy wipes / same enemy does not / knob-off does not", and crucially "a label CANNOT be built across a round boundary" (ringValidCount==0, ringHas(oldTick)==false, pendingCount==0) - the single most dangerous interaction of this change. Guards: test_tm_horizon 79, test_rack_membership 48, test_gun_harness 39, test_vbullet_metric 11, test_power_selection 3, test_adaptive_radar 41, test_tfil_ring_weights 24, test_power_policy 26, test_ram_decision 40, test_selector_tiebreak 19, test_tm_pattern_registration 20, test_vbullet_admit_gate 12, test_tm_diag 48, test_tm_automata_diag 55, test_tm_clause_shape 66. acceptance_offline_vs_online 12/12 VERDICT PASS. Shipped rack unchanged: DefaultRackMembership is still Pattern-only, TMHORIZON off. Residual (pre-existing, out of scope, stated): the internal base `PatternMatcherGun` has a rolling move-history buffer that is NOT cleared at round boundaries - it never was, and the SHIPPED Pattern gun carries history across rounds too. It cannot affect label correctness (labels come from `g.ring`), only base-prediction quality in a round's first ticks. |
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SirStone
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f9f8d84671 |
TM diagnostics kit: VALIDATED (finds a known dead input), and it found a real bug
Built `common_libs/tm_diag/` as a first-class offline diagnostics kit for Tsetlin
work, BEFORE writing the new gun - because we hit two data problems tonight that no
amount of reading the TM's clauses would have revealed (a 38.8% majority answer,
and 36-58% mislabelled training samples).
WHAT IT PROVIDES
- `feature_spec.nim`: a NAMED feature container, so a learned clause prints as a
sentence (`IF near-wall AND bullet-dead-on AND turn-left(t-2) THEN class=3`)
instead of "feature 17". Includes the 49-bit draft spec from the design session
and the shipped 40-bit encoding.
- `tm_core.nim`: a compact deterministic Granmo multiclass TM with an
INTROSPECTABLE clause layout (mirrors the tm_pattern core).
- `diagnostics.nim`, six groups: (1) pre-flight DATA checks + shuffled-label
control, (2) clause introspection (readable dump, per-clause vote counts, empty
and never-fired clauses, length distribution, per-class balance), (3)
per-feature contribution with an explicit DEAD-INPUT LIST and a ranked
most-valuable list, (4) accuracy vs the majority baseline with per-class
precision/recall and pred-majority share, (5) learning curve, (6) ablation hooks
(drop a block / scramble a bit).
=== TASK 3: THE VALIDATION THAT GATES EVERYTHING - PASSED WITH NUMBERS ===
A diagnostic we never checked is worthless, so the kit was tested on a synthetic
set with a PLANTED RULE (class2 = A and B, class1 = A and not B, class0 = not A),
a deliberately IRRELEVANT block (US, 9 bits) and a PURE-NOISE bit (17).
- majority baseline 60.63% (class0); over-30% correctly flagged
- **the planted rule is recovered EXACTLY** via `necessaryLiterals`:
class0 IF NOT dist-wall<50 | class1 IF dist-wall<50 AND NOT lat DEAD-ON |
class2 IF dist-wall<50 AND lat DEAD-ON
- **DEAD-INPUT LIST = all 9 US bits AND the noise bit 17**, while the planted bits
0 and 45 are correctly NOT listed
- top contributors: bit0 w=1241.7, bit45 w=583.3, then 49.8 - a 12-25x gap, so the
relevant bits are unmistakable
- **ABLATION: drop WALLS -39.47pp, drop BULLETS -19.33pp, drop US 0.00pp**,
scramble A -42.00pp, scramble the noise bit 0.00pp
- shuffled-label control 60.40% vs majority 60.63% = -0.23pp -> no leak
So the kit reliably finds a known dead input and a known relevant one.
=== TASK 4: THE REAL READING, AND A BUG IN THE SHIPPED GUN ===
`tm_pattern` GF head, 6 DrussGT fixtures, pooled 250,745 samples:
- label balance c2 = **34.4%** (majority-heavy, flagged); accuracy **35.72%** vs
majority **34.24%** -> margin **+1.48pp**. On `tr_drussgt_vs_crazy` it is BELOW
majority (33.81% vs 37.72%, -3.92pp).
- 200 clauses: **27 empty, 45 never fired**, mean length 19.17, max 57. The
majority class is starved (class2: 22 non-empty, 18 empty, only 2 positive
fired). Class4 fires 11-24-literal clauses -> memorisation signature.
- **REPRESENTATION BUG FOUND (reported, not silently fixed):** `tmBuildBits` writes
only 38 raw bits into `var bits: array[TM_NBITS=40, uint8]` - bits 38 and 39 are
NEVER ASSIGNED, so they are always 0 and their negated literals are always 1.
The kit's `constantInputs` confirms 38/39 are constant, and **`UNUSED-38`/`39`
rank #6 and #8 in the most-valuable-inputs list** - i.e. the model's
highest-usage inputs are information-free. That is a representation bug, not a
display artefact, and it is a concrete mechanism for part of the poor learning.
DRAFT ENCODING CHECKED: the 49-bit draft is arithmetically consistent
(4+4=8 walls, 6+3=9 us, 3+5+3+3+3+3=20 motion, 5+7=12 bullets = 49). No draft
inconsistency.
Guards: test_tm_diag 48 (new), diag_synthetic 17 (new), test_gun_harness 39,
test_vbullet_metric 11, test_power_selection 3, test_adaptive_radar 41,
test_tfil_ring_weights 24, test_power_policy 26, test_ram_decision 40,
test_rack_membership 48, test_selector_tiebreak 19, test_tm_pattern_registration 20,
test_vbullet_admit_gate 12, acceptance_offline_vs_online 12/12; tm_pattern_learning
passes. The tm_pattern hook is additive and default-OFF (no behaviour change).
NOT YET INCLUDED (the automata metrics discussed for the next step): per-clause
automata settledness (distance from the flip point), clause diversity (pairwise
overlap), literal-set churn over time, and cross-clause vote disagreement. The kit
has clause-level diagnostics but not the automata-state ones.
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SirStone
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b0654d18eb |
TM verdict, settled: it loses LIVE and sits at/below its majority class - (c)
The user pushed back on "the TM can't be your best 1v1 gun", correctly, because two
decisive tests had never been run. Both are now run and they agree.
TASK 1 - THE GF HEAD vs ITS MAJORITY-CLASS BASELINE (offline, n=1,751,067):
label histogram [254286, 284578, 678879, 297055, 236269]
majority class = 2 (the CENTRE bucket) = 38.77%
RAW head accuracy = 36.69% -> margin **-2.08 pp, BELOW majority**
GATED head accuracy = 40.37% vs 38.75% majority -> +1.62 pp, BUT it predicts the
majority class on 62.4% of ticks and its minority recall is 13.6% / 12.9% - a
base-rate predictor wearing a classifier's clothes.
Shuffled control sits at its own majority (20.04% vs 20.12%), confirming chance.
**THE OLD "46% vs 20% CHANCE" FIGURE I QUOTED WAS WRONG ON TWO COUNTS:** the
baseline is 38.8%, not 20%, and the 46% predated the deferred-label fix. Against
the correct baseline the head is BELOW it.
TASK 2 - THE FIRST-EVER LIVE A/B OF THE TM GUN (7 runs x 7 rounds per arm, one
frozen binary from git archive HEAD =
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SirStone
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185a32e9eb |
Radial offset: STRUCTURALLY incapable of helping, and Pattern does not overshoot
Follow-up to
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SirStone
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9cd6e9b8ce |
Ablation: the radial TM is replaceable by a CONSTANT, and its avenue is dead on the
shipped metric The radial TM beats Linear on bmPoint, but its head never beat the majority baseline after the label bias was fixed - suggesting the win is a constant lean rather than learning. So: sweep a stateless constant short-range offset (new `common_libs/guns/radial_offset.nim`, no learning at all) against the learned TM. VERDICT (measured, offline range, seeds=3, 18 paired runs, 231 TM rounds): 1. **bmPoint - REPLACE the TM with a constant.** `RO_s0.95` (aim distance x0.95) TIES it early (9/9, p=1.0) and BEATS it overall (15/3, p=0.0075; 7.47% vs 6.89% per-run mean). A fixed -20px does the same. The head never beats its majority baseline (56.2% vs 57.2%). 2. **bmPath (the SHIPPED metric) - the radial avenue is a DEAD END.** TMRadial is a systematic LOSS there (2/16, p=0.0013); every constant is within +-0.2pp; the only real bmPath effect is the BotRadius clamp. So the radial shift cannot help the shipped configuration. 3. The per-adversary optimum DOES vary (fixed -10 for crazy, -30 for tr_crazy, scale 0.95 for three others) - but ONE GLOBAL CONSTANT still beats the adaptively-trained head, so the "fragility justifies learning" argument FAILS. THE REAL FINDING UNDERNEATH, and it generalises beyond this gun: the base linear prediction systematically OVERSHOOTS. Measured raw per-tick base radial error has mean -71 to -100 px; the enemy is NEARER than the prediction in 63-81% of shots and farther in only 4-14%, CONSISTENT ACROSS ALL SIX CAPTURES. Radial label histogram [415166,126461,120325,44694,19351] = 57.2% majority class, mean label -82.3 px, mean applied shift -37.6 px. So the net-short bias is a GENUINE property of these range-holders against a constant-velocity extrapolation (they decelerate and turn, so the true position is closer than the straight-line guess) - NOT a fixture artefact. That is worth chasing for the guns that actually ship. Caveat: bmPoint is not the shipped metric (bmPath won the real-hit-rate A/B for SELECTION), so a bmPoint win is not yet evidence of a real win. That needs a live test - and the natural target is Pattern, which is now the default and best gun. Adds radial_offset.nim + sweep_radial_offset.nim; tm_pattern.nim gains additive instrumentation only (radial label mean and applied-shift mean; no behaviour change, and test_tm_pattern_registration still passes all 20 checks). |
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SirStone
|
589a230106 |
TM radial gun: registered (default OFF) + label-bias fix that removes the bias but
retracts its own earlier learning claim === TASK 1: REGISTERED AS GUN 14, DEFAULT `off` === The radial TM gun is now a first-class rack member (`TMPATTERN`, id 14), forceable alone with `TR_RACK_TMPATTERN=both` plus every other `TR_RACK_*=off`. DEFAULT IS `off`, and the justification matters: `both` would let it compete for selection AND (because the shared VirtualTracker ring is order-sensitive) shift every other gun's learning order, so it CANNOT leave the default path unchanged. With `off` its predict and spawnBullets are additionally GATED on rack admission (the only gun wired that way), so the shipped default never spawns it at all: zero cost, zero ring perturbation. Live proof: 1-round battle with only TMPATTERN racked -> `gun 14 (TMPattern): vShots=400 selected=104 other-gun selections=0`. Default-path-unchanged proof: parity checks that the 15-gun default bestGun/ selectGun equals the old 14-gun rack RNG-draw-for-RNG-draw, that gun 14 is never selected by default, and acceptance 12/12. Cost: 0.36 ms/tick (predict 0.30 + onResult 0.05) ~= 3% of the 13.16 ms budget. Tsetlin in the same harness is 1.62 ms/tick, so the new gun is ~4.5x cheaper. === TASK 2: THE LABEL-BIAS FIX - AND A RETRACTION === Root cause confirmed: under bmPoint a SHORT radial correction resolves the virtual bullet BEFORE the base arrival tick, so the label was dropped (labelMisses). Fix: defer the label in a pending queue and flush it once the arrival tick is recorded; labels still come from the BASE arrival tick. labelMisses 4,281,695 -> 0 training samples 1,071,824 -> 5,345,847 (x5) radial head acc 48.8% -> 57.0% (shuffled control 20.0%) bmPoint hit rate 9.4/5.8% -> 9.1/5.7% (unchanged, within noise) So the fix IMPROVES LEARNING but NOT the metric. **RETRACTION OF THE PREVIOUS JOB'S CLAIM.** It reported the radial head's 48.8% against a 36.7% majority baseline and concluded "conditional learning, not a constant bias". With the bias removed, the correctly-measured majority baseline is **58.2%** - so the head at 57.0% is AT/BELOW majority. The earlier apparent conditional learning was PARTLY AN ARTEFACT OF THE BIASED SAMPLE. The bmPoint metric win is real (TMRadial > Linear early 16/2 p=0.0013, overall 18/0 p<0.0001; > shuffled 18/0 p<0.0001) but it comes from a NET-POSITIVE AVERAGE RADIAL SHIFT, not from beating a majority classifier. Recorded plainly rather than left standing. Guards: test_tm_pattern_registration 20 (new), test_tm_pattern_rack_live 4 (new), test_gun_harness 39, test_vbullet_metric 11, test_power_selection 3 (the SIGSEGV is gone - the knn_gun rewrite is now committed), test_adaptive_radar 41, test_tfil_ring_weights 24, test_power_policy 26, test_ram_decision 28, test_rack_membership 38, test_selector_tiebreak 19, test_tm_pattern_learning 3, acceptance_offline_vs_online 12/12. ModularBot compiles (release). Note: `common_libs/tests/range_guns.nim` still builds 14 offline drivers (the offline sweep constructs TmPatternGun directly and acceptance only inspects ids 0..13), so nothing breaks - but a future job wanting it in the offline rack must add a 15th driver and mirror the live admission gating. gun_stats.jsonl now emits 15 rows; downstream tooling should ignore id 14. |
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SirStone
|
4657fe715e |
wave pairing: 36-58% of GF/DecayGF/KNN learning samples were MISLABELLED
The audit inferred (from code) that GF/DecayGF/KNN pop the OLDEST wave on resolution, while under bmPath bullets leave the arena in NON-FIFO order - so an outcome could be attached to the wrong wave. It also noted that `starved=0` does NOT rule this out. Both halves are now MEASURED. MISPAIRING RATE (10 DrussGT fixtures, real VirtualTracker, 344k resolutions/gun): gun bmPath mispair label err bmPoint mispair label err GuessFactor 36.48% 19.39% 18.24% 7.62% DecayGF 36.85% 19.52% 20.57% 8.64% KNN 57.91% 27.63% 29.75% 11.58% (starved = 0 everywhere, exactly as the audit predicted) So ~1 in 5 GF/DecayGF learning samples and ~1 in 4 KNN samples carried a WRONG guess-factor bin. This is a material corruption of the learning signal. FIX: the same fireTick-keyed ring scheme `tsetlin.nim`/`tm_selector.nim` already use - `slot = (fireTick*4 + bin) mod 1024` (period 256 ticks, longer than the ~91-tick max flight), looked up by exact key. Public interfaces unchanged; added `waveResolved`/`waveMispaired` integrity counters. AFTER: mispaired = 0 and starved = 0, both metrics, all three guns. EFFECT ON HIT RATE: SMALL AND NOT SIGNIFICANT. bmPath 4000 samples/gun: GuessFactor 23.20% -> 23.02% (-0.18pp, per-run sign-flip p=0.750) DecayGF 23.80% -> 24.25% (+0.45pp, p=0.625) KNN 18.27% -> 18.80% (+0.53pp, p=0.547) bmPoint: +0.05 / +0.33 / -0.15pp, p = 1.00 / 0.50 / 0.50. Per-run ranges overlap almost completely. A bullet-level z-test is anti-conservative (bullets within a fixture share a trajectory) and its KNN p=1.9e-16 cannot be trusted given ~10 effective independent runs. PLAIN READING: this is a CORRECTNESS fix, not a measurable hit-rate win. It removes a 36-58% mislabelling of the learning signal; the point estimates move by at most ~0.5pp, within run-to-run noise. Stated plainly rather than oversold. A REGRESSION IT CAUGHT IN ITSELF (and this explains the SIGSEGV another job saw and correctly attributed to a concurrent knn_gun.nim rewrite): the first implementation put an inline `array[1024, KNNWave]` (~100KB) inside each gun, which overflowed the default 8MB stack and made `test_power_selection` SIGSEGV. Causation was proven by stashing only the three gun files (test passed), then fixed by making the rings heap-backed `seq`. Verified: `test_power_selection` 3 PASS on the default stack, and zero inline `array[1024]` remain. Guards: test_wave_pairing 17 (new, pure), test_gun_harness 39, test_vbullet_metric 11, test_power_selection 3, test_adaptive_radar 41, test_tfil_ring_weights 24, test_power_policy 26, test_ram_decision 28. ModularBot compiles. Adds audit_wave_pairing.nim and compare_pairing.nim. |
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SirStone
|
1ea72c7f14 |
TM gun round 2: base was never behind; RADIAL target beats Linear on bmPoint
=== TASK 1: MY PREMISE WAS REFUTED ===
I instructed the job to "fix the baseline" because an earlier measurement said the
TM gun's base did not iterate flight time like `LinearGun`. MEASURED: the new gun's
base is BYTE-FOR-BYTE `LinearGun` - 18/18 runs tie exactly, p=1.000, every per-run
row byte-identical. The "non-iterating baseline" belonged to the OLD `tsetlin.nim`,
not this gun. So no fix was needed, and the earlier inference should not have been
generalised to the new gun. (It did still align the zero-correction clamp to
LinearGun's exact [0, arena] range, and reports the old BotRadius-inset base was a
wash/marginally better at 34.2%/24.7%.)
=== TASK 2: THE RADIAL TARGET - A CONTROL-VALIDATED WIN, BUT ONLY ON bmPoint ===
Instead of the lateral (GF-bucket) component - which the linear lead already
captures - the TM now predicts the RADIAL component: will the enemy be nearer or
farther than the base prediction when our bullet arrives? A 5-class radial head
sharing the same 40-bit context and TM core; the readout advances/retards the aim
distance along the base bearing.
under bmPath (the SHIPPED metric): STRUCTURAL NO-OP
synthetic 8/8 exact ties, p=1.0; real 33.9%/24.1% vs Linear 34.0%/24.3%
under bmPoint: A WIN, control-validated
TMRadial 9.4% (6013/63785) / 5.8% (42079/726652)
Linear 7.2% / 4.7% overall 17/1, p=0.0001
Tsetlin 7.0% / 4.8% overall 15/3, p=0.0075
shuffled 7.0% / 3.6% early 17/1 p=0.0001; overall 18/0, p<0.0001
radial head online accuracy 48.8% vs 19.9% shuffled chance and 36.7% majority
-> it is CONDITIONAL learning, not a constant short-range bias.
Best config: TM_RADIAL_RANGE=60, TM_RAD_MARGIN=0.25, 5 classes.
CAVEAT THAT MATTERS: a win on `bmPoint` is NOT yet evidence of a real win. `bmPath`
is the shipped SELECTION metric precisely because it beat `bmPoint` on real hit
rate (7.43% vs 4.70%). But that A/B was about which gun to PICK, not about gun
QUALITY - a gun can be better in reality while scoring worse on the selection
metric. So this needs a LIVE test, and it is the decisive one.
=== TASK 3: REVERSAL TARGET - CLEAN NEGATIVE ===
The label positive rate is only 9.7% (rev=[24772,2673]) and the head's 86.8%
accuracy is BELOW the 90.3% majority baseline: it does not learn the positive
class at all. Hit-rate effect neutral (bmPath 19.5%/18.4% vs shuffled 19.1%/17.8%,
p=0.24/0.82). Dropped.
=== OVERALL ===
Not competitive on the shipped bmPath metric (gated GF 28.3%/22.2% vs Linear
34.0%/24.3%, p=0.0075). Better than Linear on bmPoint via TMRadial (+2.2pp early,
+1.1pp overall). Per-enemy reset exists; a fresh gun per round; NO cross-battle
persistence (the user's non-negotiable).
MEASURED LIMITATION: radial mode has a high labelMiss because aiming short
resolves BEFORE the base arrival tick, biasing training toward resolvable samples.
The metric win is label-independent. A deferred-label fix is the next refinement.
INFERRED: the mechanism is surfers being NEARER than the base prediction
(range-holding); a constant-short-offset ablation would separate a learned
short-range bias from genuine per-tick conditional prediction.
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SirStone
|
ca82053a11 |
TM gun: the discrete-target diagnosis was RIGHT - it learns now. Still loses to Linear.
The user's goal: a TM gun that is the best 1v1 gun, starting from scratch every
battle but quickly overfitting the current enemy. The previous attempt (knob
tuning) failed: NO configuration beat its own shuffled-feedback control, and the
TM-off ablation scored the same as TM-on, i.e. the TM's correction was
near-zero-mean noise. Diagnosis then: a Tsetlin Machine is a CLASSIFIER, and we
were asking it for an absolute aim point - a regression target. So this attempt
gave it a DISCRETE target (multi-class over guess-factor buckets) with 40
binary/bucketed motion features, and measured it against Linear, the default
Tsetlin gun, and a MANDATORY shuffled control.
THE DIAGNOSIS IS CONFIRMED - THE TM LEARNS, DECISIVELY:
online class accuracy 46.0% vs shuffled control 20.0% (2.3x chance)
raw ungated argmax 21.2%/18.6% vs shuffled 15.2%/8.3% (18/18, p<0.0001)
TMPattern > its shuffled control, overall 17/1 runs, p=0.0001
Compare the previous attempt, which could not beat shuffled feedback at all.
TMPattern also beats the default Tsetlin gun early (17/1, p=0.0001), so it is a
strictly better TM gun than the one in the rack.
BUT IT IS NOT COMPETITIVE WITH LINEAR ON REAL SURFERS:
real DrussGT, bmPath (the shipped metric), 3 seeds, pooled early/overall
Linear 34.0% (6358/18715) 24.3% (58297/239943)
TMPattern (gated) 27.9% (15514/55535) 22.0% (158658/719681)
TMPatternShuf 28.7% 19.4%
Linear > TMPattern: 15/18 early p=0.0075, 15/18 overall p=0.0075
bmPoint: neutral (7.2%/4.6% vs Linear 7.2%/4.7%)
synthetic controlled motion: matches/edges Linear (66.8%/60.6% vs 66.4%/59.6%,
shuffled 55.7%/50.1%) - the mechanism works when motion is predictable.
So: the representation fix moved this from "learns nothing" to "learns strongly
but applies its knowledge badly". INFERRED reason for the residual loss: the
linear lead is already the modal GF bucket (the label histogram is centred), so
corrective excursions away from it are net-negative. The measured deficit lives
in the BASELINE and in RANGE, not in the TM knobs - which is why further knob
tuning was never going to work.
Best config: gated hard K=5, TM_CONF_MARGIN=0.25, TM_SHRINK=0.5.
NOT TRIED (time-boxed): the binary-reversal target, and a RADIAL (range-holding)
target - the latter is the top next step.
Adds `common_libs/guns/tm_pattern.nim` (NOT registered in the rack),
`common_libs/tests/sweep_tm_pattern.nim`, and a durable writeup at
`common_libs/tests/tm_pattern_sweep_results.md`.
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SirStone
|
07f6f3af3f |
Tsetlin gun: NO configuration adapts faster than random feedback
The user's goal was "a TM gun that can learn fast and generalize better". Swept offline over the real DrussGT fixtures (no live battles) by coordinate descent, one lever at a time, with a SHUFFLED-FEEDBACK CONTROL - a TM trained on randomised targets. That control is what settles the question. Final confirmation, 4 seeds each (~74,600 first-100-tick bullets per config): config EARLY(first 100) OVERALL Shuf_w3 (RANDOM feedback) 23.9% 20.0% win3_s1.1 (best real TM found) 23.7% 20.2% Shuf_w10 (RANDOM feedback) 23.1% 20.0% win3_st100 (prior job's edit) 23.0% 20.1% win3_off (TM correction ~= 0) 22.7% 20.2% def_w10 (shipped default) 22.1% 20.3% Linear (deterministic reference) 34.0% 24.3% The best real config beats the default early (23.7% vs 22.1%, non-overlapping per-seed ranges, z=+7.34, p=2e-13) - but its own SHUFFLED control scores 23.9%, i.e. HIGHER, z=-0.91, p=0.37. Random targets do at least as well. So the early gain is not learning. Per-lever screens were flat: TM_N_CLAUSES 25/50/100/200 all 23.0% early, completely flat; TM_N_STATES 4/32/100 all ~22-23% (unstable across seeds); TM_S mildly monotonic (lower better early); TM_T flat; TM_WINDOW_SIZE 2/3/10 all within noise of each other and of the shuffled control. Two further findings: - The TM-off ablation (correction ~= 0) scores 22.7%/20.2%, essentially the same as TM-on. The TM's correction is near-zero-mean noise; the gun's one-shot internal linear baseline accounts for its accuracy. - The TM gun is 10.3 pp behind Linear early and 4.1 pp behind overall. That deficit is in the BASELINE MODEL (LinearGun iterates flight time; this gun does not), not in the TM hyper-parameters. Tuning knobs cannot close it. Conclusion: do not tune TM hyper-parameters further. Either the input representation or the prediction target is what needs to change - the shuffled control shows the TM is not extracting target information beyond its baseline. Defaults left UNCHANGED (window=10/states=32/S=1.5/T=25/clauses=50); an uncommitted prior edit (window=3/states=100) was reverted as unsupported. Hyper-parameters are now compile-time overridable (-d:TM_WINDOW_SIZE=3 etc.) so future sweeps need no gun edit. NOT MEASURED: real hit rate vs DrussGT (offline only by design). The repo's own docs/gun_rack_analysis.md 2 reports the virtual metric is a sign-unstable ranker of real hit rate, so the comparison against "Linear 10.7% real" is not direct - whether the TM is competitive live is INFERRED-unknown, not measured. Guards: test_gun_harness 39/39, test_vbullet_metric, test_power_selection, test_tsetlin_gun, test_tm_pattern_learning all green. |
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SirStone
|
57b2ac3849 |
feat(guns): scale-aware power selection (+52% damage); TM classifier gun built, measured, DISABLED
TASK 2 - power selection, a clear win. bestPower used an ABSOLUTE MinHitRate = 0.40 bar. Measured per-bin virtual rates (rolling-100 fraction) show no bin ever clears 40%, so 11 of 14 guns were stuck at bin 0 (power 1.0) even where higher bins were comparable: Linear p1.0 44% p1.5 39% p2.0 30% p3.0 29% old bin 0 -> new bin 3 Accel p1.0 44% p1.5 40% p2.0 26% p3.0 29% old bin 1 -> new bin 3 Pattern p1.0 50% p1.5 40% p2.0 27% p3.0 12% old bin 1 -> new bin 2 Replaced with a scale-aware PowerBarFrac = 0.50 (a dimensionless FRACTION of the gun's own best bin rate). 13 of 14 selections now pick heavier bullets. Real effect vs DrussGT (8 rounds x 3 runs): hit rate unchanged (7.56% -> 7.47%) but damage dealt +52% (157 -> 239 per run) and rounds end faster. Same accuracy, half the shots, half again more damage. TASK 1 - the TM pattern-classifier gun does NOT earn its slot. It was built as a mixture of experts with a corrected-Granmo TM as a multi-class gate over HeadOn/Linear/Circular/WallBounce/Accel, labelled by which expert's prediction was closest to the actual enemy position (an exact, supervised, per-shot label - no delayed credit). Offline it loses to the best of its OWN experts on essentially every fixture, and against DrussGT it cost real performance: baseline (path+relative) 7.56% real hit rate, damage 157 + power fix 7.47%, damage 239 + power fix + TM gun 5.59%, damage 133 The gun was selected on 806 ticks and fired 24 real shots at 4.2%. So the tree ships with EnableTmSelector = false: code and wiring kept intact for re-enabling, but it is not in the active rack. Worth recording from the clause dump: the gate DOES latch onto meaningful structure. On energy-threshold-turner, HeadOn's clauses key on the energy bits (the rule's own driving variable) while Circular keys on distance/velocity. So the TM is learning something real and interpretable - it simply cannot beat 'always pick the best expert'. Root cause (INFERRED): the closest-expert label is noisy because several experts are near-tied, and under the path metric the winner varies by power bin while the gate sees one shared per-tick input, so a one-vs-rest gate over a saturated 870-bit clause space has no margin to exploit. (Zero-padding the 2-frame window was tried first and saturated every clause at 256-755 included literals; alternating the two real frames fixed that.) Also factors the corrected feedback into an exported tmLearnDir and exports the encoding/TM primitives; the Tsetlin tests still reproduce the documented mean=13.8 included literals, so the refactor is behaviour-preserving. Verified: 33/33 guard checks, tsetlin tests green, metric checks green, new power-selection guard green (13/14 selections change; relative bar still picks bin 1 and not bin 3 for a [30,25,12,5]% profile), 12/12 offline==online acceptance under the shipped default. |
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SirStone
|
e2ca2fc7d8 |
fix(guns): recover the DrussGT regression with a radial-fraction range blend
The previous fix (learn the residual against a constant-velocity base) was structurally right but cost us on real wave-surfing movement: GF 108 -> 55, KNN 101 -> 74 on the classic DrussGT captures. Root cause: the linear base is a poor model for a surfer, so the residual histogram is noisier than the old total-lead histogram. FIX: blend the RANGE between a radial-only forecast and the geometric one by radialFrac (the fraction of recent per-tick motion that is radial), keeping the constant-velocity bearing. dist = radialDist + rf*(linearDist - radialDist). New VelocityTracker in common_libs/guns/lead_forecast.nim; the window default is 32 and results were identical at 16 and 40, so it is not tightly tuned. Nine candidate bases were measured and rejected WITH NUMBERS rather than by argument, which is why I trust the winner: velocity scaling 0.8 recovers DrussGT but destroys wall-bounce 241 -> 20 radial-only range excellent DrussGT, wall-bounce 241 -> 140 short-window averaged vel worse than both bases outright hard reversal/speed gates help DrussGT, lose nothing, but weaker than blend radial-fraction blend best on BOTH <- shipped Result (hits per 2000; classic-5 = classic DrussGT captures, tr-5 = the new closed-loop TR captures, synth-10 = the rest): base classic-5 GF/DGF tr-5 GF/DGF synth-10 GF/DGF current(prefix) 108 / 108 41 / 39 1302 / 1302 linear(postfix) 55 / 76 9 / 4 2702 / 2692 BLEND 171 / 100 86 / 87 2717 / 2703 Strictly better than both on classic-5 GF and on every synthetic bucket. The one figure below the old base is classic-5 DecayGF (108 -> 100, -8/2000, within noise) and that is stated plainly rather than hidden. TASK B - enemy energy in learners. KNN gains an 8th feature, enemyEnergy/100, on a FIXED [0,1] scale (not min-max) because threshold behaviour keys off absolute energy. Honest result: it is NEUTRAL on the target fixture (77 vs 77) and roughly neutral in aggregate. The base change, not the feature, moved that fixture. Tsetlin already encoded enemyEnergy and now scores 88/400 on energy-threshold-turner against Linear's 43/400 - a 2x margin, which is the 'can a TM learn a high-level pattern' question answered in gun form. TASK C - is the virtual-bullet metric itself faithful? Quantified: scoring the bullet's PATH against BotRadius instead of the single point at aim distance raises every gun by +31% (GF) to +86% (HeadOn), so the current model is PESSIMISTIC, and it RE-RANKS materially: Linear 9th -> 6th, AvgLead 7th -> 3rd, GuessFactor 4th -> 9th, DecayGF 6th -> 12th. The 12/12 offline==online acceptance still holds under the path model (verified with a temporary env hook driving both sides), so no red flag. VERDICT: do NOT switch. The point model is the standard virtual-bullet PREDICTION-ACCURACY fitness - the bullet must arrive at the predicted point at the right time - while the path model measures hypothetical hit chance against a target that never dodges, and in open-loop fixtures it over-credits directional guns (HeadOn 35% on DrussGT, 100% on constant-velocity) for exactly that reason. The models differ materially but the current one is not shown to be unfaithful FOR ITS PURPOSE. Because the metric drives gun SELECTION, this is now being A/B'd against real hit rate versus the live DrussGT boss, which is the only ground truth we have. Verified: 20 fixtures 35636/104000 (34.3%); 33 guard checks; 12/12 acceptance; tsetlin tests green; live gauntlet 5/5. |
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SirStone
|
7f706e5b14 |
fix(guns): GF family aimed at the wrong RADIUS, not the wrong angle
The entire GuessFactor family scored 0% on clean circular and wall-bounce trajectories. Two hypotheses were on the table and BOTH were wrong: - MEA range too narrow / edge clamping: REFUTED. Measured 0 clamped shots out of 837/849/957, required offsets peak at ~33 deg against MEA 28.1-46.7 deg, and the 8 in arcsin(8/bulletSpeed) is correct (it is the max robot SPEED, not the hit radius). Changing it to BotRadius=18 would have coarsened resolution for nothing. - Peak selection: REFUTED. A sweep of every constant GF value showed the ORACLE-BEST constant offset on the original gun was only 6% circular, 4% wall-bounce, 7.5% random-walk. No peak choice could have done better. The learning path was fine too: ~850-960 observations per fixture, 0 starved waves, well-populated histograms. REAL CAUSE: the GF family aimed at the FIRE-TIME distance. The virtual-bullet metric resolves a bullet at the AIM-POINT distance and scores that single point against the enemy's position on that tick, so with any radial target motion the bullet stops at the wrong radius and misses even with a perfect angle. Angle-only prediction is structurally unscoreable under this metric. FIX: give the GF family a self-consistent constant-velocity forecast as its base reference (new common_libs/guns/lead_forecast.nim, which iterates the flight time to the same fixed point circular.nim uses), so the histogram learns the RESIDUAL against that forecast and the aim point lands at the right radius. Applied to guess_factor, decay_gf and knn_gun. Same defect fixed in Linear: it did a one-shot dist/bulletSpeed extrapolation and never iterated its flight time. The oracle sweep proves the structural fix, independently of tuning: the best achievable constant GF moved 6% -> 20% (circular), 4% -> 57% (wall-bounce), 7.5% -> 49% (random-walk). MEASURED, all 15 fixtures: total 39.0% -> 44.4% (30399 -> 34654 hits). circular GF 6 -> 23, DecayGF 6 -> 21 wall-bounce GF 0 -> 60.2, DecayGF 0 -> 60.2 constant-vel GF 26 -> 100, DecayGF 26 -> 100, KNN 26 -> 100, Linear 87 -> 100 random-walk GF 0 -> 53, DecayGF 0 -> 52, Linear 24 -> 53 StraightLine GF 8 -> 77, DecayGF 8 -> 77 Non-regression: 33 guard checks pass, the range's 12/12 offline==online acceptance still PASSES, tsetlin tests green, live gauntlet 5/5. HONEST TRADE-OFF, recorded rather than hidden: on the 5 real DrussGT wave-surfing captures the GF family REGRESSES - GuessFactor 108 -> 55, DecayGF 108 -> 76, KNN 101 -> 74 hits per 2000. The linear base is a poor model for a surfer, so the residual histogram is noisier than the old total-lead histogram. Linear itself improved there (95 -> 105). The synthetic range and the live gauntlet both improved, and the structural bug is provably fixed, so this was judged worth the cost - but recovering the DrussGT regression is the next job, not something to wave away. |
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SirStone
|
89370008da |
fix(tsetlin): make the TM actually learn - saturation 714 -> 13.8 literals/clause
The gun has never contributed anything: Tsetlin.vHits was byte-for-byte equal to Linear.vHits in every measured round of every run, because its learned correction was always exactly 0. Six diagnosed defects fixed, plus one that was required to make the first one work: 1. Type I now conditions on the clause output. It previously rewarded included true literals unconditionally, omitting Granmo's (c=0, lk=1) -> toward Exclude counter-force, so true literals ratcheted toward Include forever. This was the root cause of the saturation. 2. Type II was unreachable dead code: its guard required cOut==1 AND lits[lit]==0 AND st>0 (included), but cOut==1 guarantees every included literal is 1. Its direction was wrong too - it should increment EXCLUDED false literals when the clause fires. 3. Resource allocation restored: Granmo's (T - clip(v,-T,T))/(2T) target replaces |error|/(2*RESID_MAX); TM_T was only an output normaliser. 4. Label baseline fixed - the factor-2 shrink. predX = linearX + cx, so the label was delta - cx while the learner's output IS cx, giving error = delta - 2cx and a fixed point of cx = delta/2: HALF the needed correction even with perfect feedback. TmTrace now stores linearX/linearY and training uses delta. 5. Hits no longer zero their label (a hit means |miss| < 18px, not 0). 6. The enemy-energy feature was duplicated - tmEncodeFrame passed state.selfEnergy with a stale comment claiming enemyEnergy was absent, while WorldState.enemyEnergy exists. Enemy-energy rules were literally unrepresentable. 7. REQUIRED EXTRA: tmEvalClause now implements Granmo Eq. 6 - an all-Exclude clause outputs 1 during learning and 0 during classification. Without it, fix #1 deadlocks every clause at empty. MEASURED EFFECT (energy-threshold-turner fixture, seed 1): mean included literals per active clause 714.0 -> 13.8 active clauses 100/100 -> 53/100 nonzero corrections 8/764 -> 708/764 Tsetlin virtual hits (Linear = 27/400) 27/400 -> 69/400 Divergence achieved: offline on 7/8 fixtures, and in a live gauntlet (RandomMover: Tsetlin 199/1200 vs Linear 288/1200, vDropped=vStarved=0). Tsetlin now LEARNS but is not yet competitive with Linear - the regression head is untuned, flagged as follow-up rather than claimed as a win. Also ignores compiled test harnesses that have no file extension, which the existing '**/tests/test_*' rule misses. |
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SirStone
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e53690036b |
fix(guns): speed-sensitive caches, dead stop-shot branch, exact TM trace pairing
Four guns cached a whole prediction per tick while predict() is called once per power bin, so every bin after the first (and the real fired shot, which shares lastState) reused the power-1.0 lead. Fixed by caching only the speed-INDEPENDENT derived state and recomputing the lead per requested speed: - stop_shot: also fixes prevSpeed being written before it was read, which made abs(speed) < abs(prev) permanently false and the entire stop-prediction branch unreachable (it was just Linear). - displacement: the cache key included bulletSpeed, so the guard missed on all four bins and the 15-tick window advanced ~4x/tick, making the inferred velocity ~4x too small. - averaged_lead: tick cache removed outright. pattern_matcher: split into speed-independent match+path and per-call lead. FeedbackEvent gains fireTick/powerBin (additive; only virtual_bullets constructs one) so guns can pair feedback to the exact shot instead of guessing by coordinates. tsetlin uses it: traces are now keyed exactly by (fireTick, powerBin) with a 1024-slot ring, and the 10-frame window shifts at most once per tick (it was shifting ~4-5x/tick, so isWarmedUp tripped after ~2 ticks). KNOWN INCOMPLETE: tsetlin still does not diverge from Linear in battle. The two named bugs are fixed (a 600-tick sim shows trainedShots=2141, traceMisses=0, and a fixed-input probe converges to a 9.6px correction), but the TM's clause feedback itself is broken: ~131 of 1740 literals end up included per clause, so its conjunction never fires. Sweeping TM_S, TM_N_CLAUSES and a two-branch Type-I update did not change the correction from 0. Needs a real TM fix or removal, not another bug fix. First-ever guard tests for the gun selector: common_libs/tests/ test_gun_harness.nim (14 checks, headless, no Java). There were none before, which is how six broken guns survived a full analysis cycle. Against the previous HEAD, 5 of these checks FAIL - that is the regression guard. |
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SirStone
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0cc682152d |
fix(guns): per-bin wave queues unbreak GF/DecayGF/KNN learning; fix vbullet drops
Wave queues (guess_factor, decay_gf, knn_gun): predict() stored ONE wave per tick while onResult() popped one per resolved bullet (~4/tick), so the queue drained to empty within a few dozen ticks, ~3 of every 4 resolutions returned without learning, and the survivor paired with a same-tick wave (bearingDelta ~= 0) pinning the histogram at centre. PROOF: GF.vHits == HeadOn.vHits and DecayGF.vHits == HeadOn.vHits byte-for-byte in every one of 50 rounds — the guns had degenerated to HeadOn. Now each gun keeps a per-bin FIFO with an O(1) head cursor. At most one push per (tick, bin) so the fire site's 5th predict() call is a no-op, and onResult pops the oldest wave of its OWN bin via e.bulletPower. Aiming math untouched (it was already correct: 0 deg = East, CCW+). maxBullets 2048 -> 8192: the rack spawns 52 bullets/tick so the ring wrapped every ~39 ticks while a long power-3 shot needs ~90, silently discarding unresolved bullets and biasing every measured hit rate by range. Added a droppedBullets counter so a future overflow is measurable, and wavePushes/ waveStarved counters on the three guns. After the fix: vDropped = 0 and vStarved = 0 across all 48 recorded rounds. fitnessFor is now exported, deterministic (enemies iterated in ascending id order) and shared by the selector and the stats dump, replacing a hand-rolled merge in ModularBot that never advanced its window head. Round lines gain additive keys: vDropped, vStarved. |
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SirStone
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2cc2a3bd87 |
fix(ModularBot): ram loop prevention, dead-target guards, cleaner logging
- 30-tick cooldown after ghost-stuck/timeout ram exit prevents re-entry loop - enemy_tracker.update() skips dead bots to prevent same-tick scan resurrection - TFIL graphics cleared when ramming is active movement - [config] logs: white base with green-highlighted changes only - [ram:enter] logs trigger reason and key values on false→true transition - [death] and [target-invalid] logs retained for diagnostics |
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SirStone
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651ce80620 |
feat(ModularBot): KNN gun, gunheat tracker, bullet shadows — inspired by DrussGT
New DrussGT-inspired modules: - KNNGun: K-nearest-neighbor statistical targeting using GF density peaks - GunheatTracker: dual-heat system (predicted + confirmed) for 1-2 tick lead - ShadowTracker: computes GF regions safe from in-flight bullets (enemy wave dodge) VirtualBodyTracker now integrates gunheat for earlier fire detection and shadows for safe-zone multiplier (90% reduction in danger zones). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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SirStone
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c94ba1f2fe |
feat(ModularBot): decay-GF gun (recency-weighted), 13 guns total
- Decay-GF: exponential decay on GF histogram (0.998/tick, ~350-tick half-life) - Adapts faster to mid-battle strategy changes than standard GF - Battle-tested vs WaveSurfer, Crazy, RandomMover |
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SirStone
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fbf9414375 |
feat(ModularBot): rammer movement + averaged-lead gun, 12 guns
- Ram movement: drive straight at enemy (not wired, needs selector) - Averaged-lead gun: mean of linear+circular+wall-bounce predictions - 12 guns total, battle-tested Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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SirStone
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b373d3d505 |
feat(ModularBot): displacement-vector gun, 11 guns total
- Displacement gun: average velocity over sliding window, captures drift - Complements instantaneous-velocity linear gun - Battle-tested vs Crazy, WaveSurfer, PatternMover |
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SirStone
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a87be5f99f |
feat(ModularBot): stop-shot gun, 10 guns total
- Stop-shot gun: predicts enemy deceleration stop point - Catches bots at direction reversal pauses - Battle-tested vs WaveSurfer, Crazy, RandomMover Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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SirStone
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18ff2d45b3 |
feat(ModularBot): acceleration predictor gun, 9 guns total
- Accel gun: tracks velocity+heading changes, extrapolates with acceleration - Handles speed-up, slow-down, and combined accel+turn - Battle-tested vs Crazy, RandomMover, Walls |
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SirStone
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a3b4f26b69 |
feat(ModularBot): wall-bounce gun, 8 guns total
- Wall-bounce gun: linear extrapolation with arena wall reflection - Simulates enemy tick-by-tick, bouncing off walls (billiard-ball reflection) - 4-iteration convergence on ticksToArrive like circular gun - 8 guns: head-on, linear, circular, tsetlin, guess-factor, pattern, anti-surfer, wall-bounce - Turret: #CCCCCC (silver), bullet: #EEEEEE (white) Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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SirStone
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ebe5b1b7f1 |
feat(ModularBot): anti-surfer gun + wave-surf movement module
- Anti-surfer gun: inverse GF targeting for wave-surfing enemies - Wave-surf movement: danger histogram dodge (not wired yet, needs movement selector) - 7 guns total, battle-tested Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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SirStone
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78723fce13 |
fix(GFGun): head-on prior + per-bin mea in onResult
- Cold-start bug: uniform bins[0..30]=0.1 made peakBin() always return 0 (first-wins tie), giving GF=-1 (max CW escape) before any learning. Fixed with a triangular head-on bump at bin 15 (GF=0) as the prior. - onResult now recomputes mea from FeedbackEvent.bulletPower instead of the stale first-bin mea cached by predict; correct per-power-bin GF. - Add DebugGF const (default false) with [gf-dbg] echoes in predict/onResult. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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SirStone
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1ed7797cb6 |
feat(ModularBot): 6 guns, pattern matcher, melee modules, adversarial bots
- New guns: guess-factor (GF histogram), pattern-matcher (movement tape replay) - New modules: minimum-risk melee movement, spinning melee radar - New test bots: PatternMover, RandomMover, WaveSurfer - Fixed: FeedbackEvent now carries actualX/actualY for proper GF learning - Fixed: TM gun warmup gating + directional residuals - Fixed: circular gun integrated formula + multi-bin omega cache - Fixed: oscillator wall-bounce lockout - Fixed: phantom meteor perpendicular body orientation - 6/6 battle wins across all enemy types |
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SirStone
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254c7dc997 |
feat(ModularBot): pluggable bot with 4 guns, phantom meteor movement, radar harness
- Gun harness: virtual bullet tracker, rolling fitness, auto-selector - Guns: head-on, linear (extrapolation), circular (integrated formula), tsetlin machine (learning) - Movement: phantom meteor gravity engine (danger histograms, phantom bullets, fire detection) - Radar: harness + radar_lock adapter - Color-coded modules: turret/bullet color per gun, body per movement, scan per radar - Beats Target, SpinBot, Crazy, TrackFire in 10-round battles |
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SirStone
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c9191b7afb |
fix(circular-gun): correct turn-rate calculation for multi-scan delays
Two bugs fixed: 1. Multi-tick gaps: turn rate assumed 1 tick between observations, but scans can be 5+ ticks apart. Now divides by actual tickDelta. 2. Per-power-bin state corruption: predict() called 4x per tick (per power bin). After first call, prevHeading was already updated, causing subsequent calls to compute 0° delta. Now captures oldHeading/oldTick before updating. Verified: OscillatorBot at 4°/tick captured correctly; normalization [-180°,180°] works; tickDelta=1 typical; first bin gets delta, subsequent bins see 0 (expected). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com> |