Measure, for every shot ModularBot fires at the real DrussGT, the lead we
actually applied vs the lead the enemy's motion required, from the recorded
live battles (/tmp/tfil_ab2, 70 battles / 490 rounds / 54926 shots, plus a
35-battle powtest replication of a different binary).
- requiredLead from an AIM-INDEPENDENT interception solve (bullet speed vs
enemy truth), appliedLead from the server-recorded bullet bearing.
- capture = applied/required, guarded at 2px lateral lead (1.6% excluded);
headline metric is the robust proportional slope.
- validation: hits 11.6px mean miss / 80.8% inside 18px, misses 134px,
11.6x separation; 496/496 death + 70/70 owner attributions correct.
Direct answer: capture falls with RANGE (capSlp 0.401 -> 0.135, and
|err|/tolerance 1.27 -> 7.54) but is FLAT across fired POWER within a band
(450+, enemy alive: 0.154 / 0.127 / 0.127). The sub-0.5 long-range shots
(1.18% hit) are finishKill endgame shots at a near-dead DrussGT, not a
lead-capture failure. A naive linear predictor captures 0.29-0.60; we reach
46-67% of that, so the under-lead is real but capture=1.0 is unattainable
against a dodger (oracle required lead).
