# Movement campaign — ledger

**Goal (owner's mandate, 2026-09-26 overnight):** find the *best 1v1 movement*
by measurement, then do the same for the gun. This file is the campaign's
single source of truth: every later job **appends** a `## Batch N` section and
never edits an earlier one (a wrong earlier number gets a correction line, not
a rewrite).

**Owner's words:** *"I want you to do all tests and checks with the goal to have
the best 1vs1 movement. You have all night, you can change every parameter.
Continue until you found an amazing movement. When found do the same over for a
gun."*

---

## 0. The one caveat this campaign exists to close

Everything measured about movement before this campaign is **DrussGT-only**:
`docs/surfer_wiring_ab.md`, the j107 range drift, the j113 BitBrain movement
notes. The standing lesson of the night is that a one-opponent result is not a
result:

> an arm can take fewer hits **and** win fewer rounds (j107 / `strafe`): the
> verdict lives in **damage/run + ROUND WINS**, and hit rate is only ever an
> explanation.

So from here on **the unit of evidence is the number of opponents**, not the
number of runs: the same arm must win on *many* opponents before it is called
better.

---

## 1. Protocol (how every batch must be run)

| Element | Rule |
|---|---|
| Subject | ONE frozen binary, built from `git archive HEAD` (`tools/ab/tournament_run.sh` does this; the commit sha and binary sha256 are recorded in `session.json`) |
| Arms | env dicts only — **no per-arm rebuild, ever**; the arm file is a committed file, not a shell history |
| Panel | the **frozen** panel `tools/ab/panel_movement.txt`. Adding/removing an opponent starts a **new batch number** |
| Pairing | per opponent: average the arm's runs, subtract the reference arm's average for that same opponent → one delta per opponent; then aggregate |
| Isolation | per-run bot dir + classic data dir, ephemeral ports, own process group; cleanup only by this session's outdir |
| Serialization | **one battle fleet at a time.** `tournament_run.sh --wait-arena N` refuses/stalls while another job's `run_bridge_battle`/`TrBattleCapture`/`ModularBot_bin` is alive (bracketed pgrep; never a broad `pkill`) |
| Liveness | every declared env token must appear verbatim in OUR bot's own `[env]` boot report, else the run is excluded and named in the report; an undeclared `TR_MOVEMENT` in the process env is a fatal FAIL for the reference arm |
| Never shipped | this is a measurement + design campaign: `git status` clean, defaults untouched, `.gitignore` untouched |

### Pre-registered decision rules (fixed BEFORE Batch 1 ran, commit `1984a78`)

> Provenance note: the harness and these rules were written and staged before
> Batch 1 was fought, but a parallel job's `git commit` (j116, same working
> tree / same index) swept the staged files into **its** commit `1984a78`
> ("melee A/B doc…"). The rules are therefore committed under a neighbour's
> message — they are nonetheless dated before the data: no battle of Batch 1
> had been launched when they were written, and Batch 1's session.json records
> the same commit `1984a78` as the frozen-binary source.`)

1. **Primary metrics:** damage/run and ROUND WINS. Secondary/explanation only:
   damage taken/run, incoming hit rate (enemy hits ÷ enemy shots), achieved mean
   distance.
2. **BETTER than the reference** iff one primary metric is up with a
   cross-opponent **sign test p < 0.05** while the other does **not** go down;
   or the mirror image for **WORSE**. Anything else is **NOT
   DISTINGUISHABLE** (which is a real answer, not a failure).
3. **A verdict must survive the between-opponent spread**: the pooled mean delta
   is reported with the SD across opponents, its SE, a 95% CI, and the MDE
   (α=0.05 two-sided, 80% power) — an effect smaller than the MDE is reported as
   *not detectable*, never as *absent* and never as a win.
4. **Somewhere to stop:** if no arm beats the shipped `tfil` by rule 2 in
   Batch 1 **and** no arm shows a ≥ +MDE damage gain with p<0.10, the movement
   stage's first phase is closed with *"the shipped `tfil` is the best movement
   we have measured"* — that is a **successful** outcome, and the campaign moves
   to the gun axis rather than inventing more movement arms. See
   *What would make us stop* at the end.
5. **No promotion off a single metric, a single opponent, or a single run.**
   A change that wins damage by losing wins (or vice-versa) is not a win.
6. Every batch is shot with a **pre-registered prediction** stated in its
   section *before* the battles finish; a prediction that turns out wrong is
   recorded as wrong.

---

## 2. Stage 0 — what we already know (given, not re-derived)

Live A/B vs real DrussGT, 15 runs × 7 rounds, one frozen binary
(`docs/surfer_wiring_ab.md`, commit `0f5cfe3`):

| arm | dmg/run | dmg taken | round wins | incoming hit rate |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| `tfil` (SHIPPED) | **293** | 224 | **45/105** | 10.40% |
| `strafe` (range 325) | 250 | **198** | 37/105 | **9.40%** |
| `surf` | 255 | 259 | 37/105 | 13.51% |

Read: the shipped `tfil` deals the most damage and wins the most rounds while
being hit the *most*; `strafe` dodges best and wins least. Plus j107: drifting
25–30 px closer made damage **and** wins worse, so the lever is not simply "get
closer". **Hypothesis entering the campaign: the 325 px range preference of
`strafe` costs wins** (INFERRED from DrussGT-only data — this is exactly what
Batch 1 tests across a panel).

---

## 3. Batch 1 — isolating the range / aggression axis

**Design.** One frozen binary, five env-only arms, one frozen panel
(`tools/ab/panel_movement.txt`, 15 opponents: 5 dodger, 3 pattern, 2
wall-follower/corner-camper, 1 spinner, 2 rammer/brawler, 2 aggressive megas),
3 runs × 3 rounds per (opponent, arm). Arm file:
`tools/ab/arms_movement_b1.txt`.

| # | arm | env | what it isolates |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | `tfil` | *(none — shipped defaults)* | the arm to beat |
| 2 | `strafe_notilt` | `TR_MOVEMENT=strafe TR_STRAFE_RANGE_TOL=999999` | the COST of the 325 range preference: tilt is provably 0 every tick, so this is pure perpendicular strafe with **no range steering at all** |
| 3 | `strafe_325` | `TR_MOVEMENT=strafe` | the current strafe default (range 325, tol 25, tilt 15/0.10) |
| 4 | `ring` | `TR_MOVEMENT=tfil_ring` | TFIL semantics + retuned heat field (corridor 10, wall 15, radiance 5, bullet core/aura 20/10, 5-tick commit) **with** the range-weighted tile draw (band 100–200) |
| 5 | `ring_notemp` | `TR_MOVEMENT=tfil_ring TR_TFIL_RANGE_TEMP=0` | the control for #4: same retuned heat field, range weighting switched OFF (`rand(candidates.high)` path) |

`ring` − `ring_notemp` is therefore the range-weighting lever **alone**, on a
heat field that is already retuned. The originally-suggested 5th arm ("`tfil`
with less saturated heat") is **not buildable in this campaign**: in
`common_libs/movements/the_floor_is_lava.nim` `CorridorHeat`/`WallHotness` are
Nim `const`s (env_report only *reports* them); only the `tfil_ring` copy reads
them from the env. #5 is the honest substitute.

**Pre-registered prediction (written before the battles finished):** `tfil`
still wins the panel on damage and round wins; `strafe_notilt` will beat
`strafe_325` on round wins (the range tilt is a net cost), and the ring arms will
land between them. If instead the range-steering arms beat `tfil` on wins, the
"range preference costs wins" hypothesis is confirmed across bots, not just
against DrussGT.

### Outcome — direct answer

**Batch 1 is a NULL for the hypothesis that the shipped `tfil` is the best
movement. It is not.** Measured on the frozen 15-opponent panel, one frozen
binary, 225 battles, **0 invalid runs, 0 liveness failures, 0 failed starts**:

| arm | dmg/run | wins/run | round wins | incoming hit rate | dmg taken/run | mean distance |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| `tfil` (SHIPPED) | 118.9 | 1.22 | 55/135 (40.7%) | 18.17% | 199.8 | 382 px |
| **`strafe_notilt`** | 108.8 | **1.60** | **72/135 (53.3%)** | **12.24%** | **150.3** | 456 px |
| `strafe_325` | 111.8 | 1.56 | 70/135 (51.9%) | 13.14% | 155.7 | 436 px |
| `ring_notemp` | 108.2 | 1.29 | 58/135 (43.0%) | 16.67% | 193.4 | 395 px |
| `ring` | **150.1** | 1.18 | 53/135 (39.3%) | 29.42% | 225.1 | 236 px |

Paired across opponents, the winner is **`strafe_notilt`** (pure perpendicular
strafe, range steering provably off): **Δwins/run +0.38** [95% CI +0.16, +0.60],
positive on **9 of 9 decisive opponents** (exact sign test **p = 0.0039**,
sign-flip permutation p = 0.0039, Wilcoxon p = 0.0090), and **Δdmg/run −10.2**
[−25.8, +5.5], p = 0.61, **MDE 20.4 ⇒ not detectable** — i.e. **+17 rounds out
of 135 won, at no detectable damage cost**, with a third fewer incoming hits
(hit rate −7.3 pp, p = 6e-5, and 0/15 opponents in favour of `tfil`) and 50 less
damage taken per run. `strafe_325` is the same effect, slightly smaller
(Δwins/run +0.33, [0.04, +0.63], p = 0.039, 10/12) — the two strafe arms are
**not separable from each other** by this batch.

`ring` is the *opposite trade* and must not be read as a movement win: it deals
**+31.2 dmg/run** (+26%, p = 0.0074, 13/15) but wins **no more rounds**
(Δwins −0.04, p = 1.00) and pays for the damage with the panel's **worst**
dodging (hit rate 29.42% vs 18.17%, +25 dmg taken/run) because it fights at a
mean **236 px** (vs 382/456). `ring_notemp` — the same retuned heat field with
the range weighting switched off — is **indistinguishable from `tfil` on both
primaries**, so the heat-field retune alone is not what makes `strafe` win
(INFERRED: `ring_notemp` also differs from `tfil` in commit ticks and wall
radiance, so this is evidence against, not a clean isolation).

**Mechanism (MEASURED, and the reason the win is a movement win):** in **216 of
the 219 attributable runs**, our round-win count equals exactly the number of
rounds in which the **opponent's death event** appears — round wins in this
harness are survival wins. The winning arm survives by taking fewer, weaker hits
at longer range, not by dealing more damage (its damage is unchanged).

**DIRECT ANSWER.** The best 1v1 movement measured across this panel is
**`TR_MOVEMENT=strafe` with the range tilt disabled** (pure perpendicular
strafe, no range steering). It beats the shipped `tfil` on round wins by an
effect that **survives the between-opponent spread** (observed +0.38 vs MDE
0.29; 9/9 opponents; CI excludes 0) with **no detectable damage cost**, and it
dodges substantially better. `strafe_325` (the current strafe default) is
essentially the same arm. The shipped `tfil` is the **worst of the five on round
wins**: the hypothesis in §2 that its win came from the DrussGT-only measurement
is **supported** — on a panel it loses to both strafe arms.

**The pre-registered prediction for this batch was WRONG and is recorded as
wrong:** I predicted `tfil` would still win the panel (it came last on wins) and
that `strafe_notilt` would beat `strafe_325` on wins (it does by +0.05 wins/run,
which this batch cannot resolve).

**Honest readings of the pre-registered rule** (both printed by the analyzer;
the strict reading is the literal one and it is NOT satisfied by anything):

* **strict** (`the other metric's mean delta is not negative at all`): no arm is
  BETTER than `tfil`. The two strafe arms win more rounds but their mean damage
  is 7–10/run lower (inside the MDE, but negative).
* **substantive** (the other primary metric is not *detectably* down — sign test
  not significant and |Δ| < its MDE, per rule 3): `strafe_notilt`, `strafe_325`
  and `ring` are each BETTER than `tfil` on one primary metric.
* The ordering is identical under both readings, and under the standing rule
  (**round wins first, then damage**) the winner is `strafe_notilt`.

### The analyzer's full report (verbatim)

### MEASURED: session

* commit `1984a780f494ce246e0f916934b9581e07c89ed2`, frozen binary sha256 `1817c75ab1d0…`
* 15 opponents × 5 arms × 3 runs × 3 rounds = 225 battles, conc=6
* arms file `arms_movement_b1.txt`, panel file `panel_movement.txt`
* reference arm: **`tfil`** — every delta below is (arm − tfil), opponent by opponent

* liveness: 0 run(s) excluded (225 total)

### MEASURED: per-opponent paired table (per arm)

#### `tfil` — shipped baseline (movement engine tfil, every knob at its default)  (paired on 15 opponents)

| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| DrussGT | dodger | 124.7→124.7 | +0.0 | 1.67→1.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 452→452 |
| Diamond | dodger | 39.5→39.5 | +0.0 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 458→458 |
| Dookious | dodger | 130.1→130.1 | +0.0 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 410→410 |
| GresSuffurd | dodger | 129.2→129.2 | +0.0 | 1.33→1.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 413→413 |
| CassiusClay | dodger | 73.4→73.4 | +0.0 | 0.33→0.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 339→339 |
| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.0→181.0 | +0.0 | 2.33→2.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 402→402 |
| TripHammer | pattern | 59.5→59.5 | +0.0 | 0.33→0.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 418→418 |
| Coriantumr | pattern | 67.8→67.8 | +0.0 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 424→424 |
| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 229.1→229.1 | +0.0 | 2.67→2.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 277→277 |
| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 150.7→150.7 | +0.0 | 1.67→1.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 410→410 |
| SpinBot | spinner | 279.3→279.3 | +0.0 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 351→351 |
| DiamondStealer | rammer | 139.4→139.4 | +0.0 | 0.67→0.67 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 235→235 |
| BlitzBat | brawler | 54.3→54.3 | +0.0 | 2.00→2.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 422→422 |
| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 52.3→52.3 | +0.0 | 0.33→0.33 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 401→401 |
| Ascendant | aggressive | 73.3→73.3 | +0.0 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.00 | 317→317 |

#### `strafe_notilt` — strafe, range steering OFF (tilt always 0)  (paired on 15 opponents)

| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| DrussGT | dodger | 124.7→115.7 | -9.0 | 1.67→1.67 | +0.00 | -31.6 | -2.95 | 452→535 |
| Diamond | dodger | 39.5→56.6 | +17.1 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | -62.9 | -7.97 | 458→543 |
| Dookious | dodger | 130.1→105.8 | -24.3 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | -60.1 | -6.08 | 410→484 |
| GresSuffurd | dodger | 129.2→111.3 | -17.8 | 1.33→2.33 | +1.00 | -36.3 | -8.61 | 413→482 |
| CassiusClay | dodger | 73.4→92.1 | +18.7 | 0.33→1.33 | +1.00 | -55.5 | -7.24 | 339→397 |
| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.0→133.2 | -47.8 | 2.33→2.67 | +0.33 | -0.9 | -2.46 | 402→447 |
| TripHammer | pattern | 59.5→57.5 | -2.1 | 0.33→0.67 | +0.33 | -45.0 | -3.84 | 418→547 |
| Coriantumr | pattern | 67.8→77.2 | +9.4 | 1.00→1.67 | +0.67 | -54.2 | -3.35 | 424→554 |
| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 229.1→162.1 | -66.9 | 2.67→2.67 | +0.00 | -54.9 | -9.49 | 277→361 |
| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 150.7→95.7 | -55.0 | 1.67→1.67 | +0.00 | -76.2 | -7.27 | 410→567 |
| SpinBot | spinner | 279.3→271.3 | -8.0 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | -42.7 | -14.27 | 351→335 |
| DiamondStealer | rammer | 139.4→154.7 | +15.2 | 0.67→1.00 | +0.33 | -33.7 | -2.80 | 235→243 |
| BlitzBat | brawler | 54.3→41.5 | -12.8 | 2.00→3.00 | +1.00 | -105.6 | -13.42 | 422→588 |
| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 52.3→78.4 | +26.0 | 0.33→1.00 | +0.67 | -45.0 | -6.09 | 401→397 |
| Ascendant | aggressive | 73.3→78.2 | +4.9 | 0.00→0.33 | +0.33 | -36.9 | -14.30 | 317→364 |

#### `strafe_325` — strafe default (range 325, tol 25, tilt 15/0.10)  (paired on 15 opponents)

| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| DrussGT | dodger | 124.7→118.5 | -6.2 | 1.67→1.33 | -0.33 | -17.5 | -1.77 | 452→494 |
| Diamond | dodger | 39.5→71.8 | +32.2 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | -38.7 | -5.93 | 458→506 |
| Dookious | dodger | 130.1→84.0 | -46.0 | 1.00→2.00 | +1.00 | -108.4 | -9.12 | 410→457 |
| GresSuffurd | dodger | 129.2→112.3 | -16.9 | 1.33→2.00 | +0.67 | -26.1 | -5.44 | 413→430 |
| CassiusClay | dodger | 73.4→81.5 | +8.1 | 0.33→1.33 | +1.00 | -68.4 | -7.31 | 339→386 |
| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.0→169.4 | -11.6 | 2.33→2.33 | +0.00 | -7.9 | -3.52 | 402→425 |
| TripHammer | pattern | 59.5→43.6 | -15.9 | 0.33→0.67 | +0.33 | -43.0 | -4.74 | 418→500 |
| Coriantumr | pattern | 67.8→96.5 | +28.7 | 1.00→1.67 | +0.67 | -46.2 | -3.37 | 424→494 |
| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 229.1→163.8 | -65.2 | 2.67→1.67 | -1.00 | -12.1 | -7.90 | 277→332 |
| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 150.7→119.8 | -30.9 | 1.67→2.00 | +0.33 | -78.8 | -5.38 | 410→517 |
| SpinBot | spinner | 279.3→259.3 | -20.0 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | -37.3 | -12.96 | 351→436 |
| DiamondStealer | rammer | 139.4→135.3 | -4.1 | 0.67→1.33 | +0.67 | -25.4 | -3.50 | 235→274 |
| BlitzBat | brawler | 54.3→60.5 | +6.3 | 2.00→2.67 | +0.67 | -88.1 | -10.88 | 422→531 |
| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 52.3→69.3 | +16.9 | 0.33→0.67 | +0.33 | -15.7 | -2.95 | 401→383 |
| Ascendant | aggressive | 73.3→90.4 | +17.1 | 0.00→0.67 | +0.67 | -47.0 | -12.83 | 317→373 |

#### `ring` — tfil_ring (retuned heat field + range weighting 100-200)  (paired on 15 opponents)

| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| DrussGT | dodger | 124.7→127.8 | +3.1 | 1.67→0.67 | -1.00 | +105.6 | +12.67 | 452→244 |
| Diamond | dodger | 39.5→46.4 | +6.9 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +40.9 | +17.58 | 458→240 |
| Dookious | dodger | 130.1→149.2 | +19.2 | 1.00→0.33 | -0.67 | +50.0 | +8.21 | 410→267 |
| GresSuffurd | dodger | 129.2→222.7 | +93.6 | 1.33→1.33 | +0.00 | +83.9 | +12.13 | 413→234 |
| CassiusClay | dodger | 73.4→102.5 | +29.1 | 0.33→0.33 | +0.00 | +21.8 | +5.21 | 339→242 |
| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.0→249.8 | +68.8 | 2.33→3.00 | +0.67 | -41.9 | +0.85 | 402→209 |
| TripHammer | pattern | 59.5→76.2 | +16.7 | 0.33→0.00 | -0.33 | +47.8 | +13.66 | 418→266 |
| Coriantumr | pattern | 67.8→119.4 | +51.7 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | +32.1 | +10.39 | 424→258 |
| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 229.1→219.5 | -9.6 | 2.67→1.67 | -1.00 | +57.2 | +7.21 | 277→232 |
| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 150.7→176.4 | +25.7 | 1.67→2.33 | +0.67 | -41.8 | +11.76 | 410→229 |
| SpinBot | spinner | 279.3→336.0 | +56.7 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | +5.3 | +24.20 | 351→172 |
| DiamondStealer | rammer | 139.4→148.7 | +9.3 | 0.67→1.33 | +0.67 | -39.4 | -1.78 | 235→214 |
| BlitzBat | brawler | 54.3→156.7 | +102.5 | 2.00→2.67 | +0.67 | +8.4 | +12.71 | 422→221 |
| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 52.3→43.3 | -9.0 | 0.33→0.00 | -0.33 | +36.2 | +10.82 | 401→266 |
| Ascendant | aggressive | 73.3→76.7 | +3.4 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +14.0 | +13.54 | 317→243 |

#### `ring_notemp` — tfil_ring, range weighting OFF (temp 0)  (paired on 15 opponents)

| opponent | style | dmg/run ref→arm | Δdmg | wins/run ref→arm | Δwins | Δdmg taken | Δhit rate (pp) | dist ref→arm |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| DrussGT | dodger | 124.7→108.0 | -16.7 | 1.67→1.33 | -0.33 | -0.8 | -0.72 | 452→436 |
| Diamond | dodger | 39.5→42.9 | +3.4 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | +9.2 | -1.47 | 458→447 |
| Dookious | dodger | 130.1→115.2 | -14.8 | 1.00→1.33 | +0.33 | -24.4 | -3.35 | 410→418 |
| GresSuffurd | dodger | 129.2→118.3 | -10.8 | 1.33→1.33 | +0.00 | +20.9 | -1.75 | 413→433 |
| CassiusClay | dodger | 73.4→92.6 | +19.2 | 0.33→1.67 | +1.33 | -51.0 | -5.72 | 339→388 |
| RetroGirl | pattern | 181.0→126.2 | -54.8 | 2.33→1.33 | -1.00 | +55.3 | +3.00 | 402→405 |
| TripHammer | pattern | 59.5→44.3 | -15.2 | 0.33→0.33 | +0.00 | -4.9 | +0.65 | 418→453 |
| Coriantumr | pattern | 67.8→84.9 | +17.1 | 1.00→1.00 | +0.00 | -1.7 | +0.24 | 424→430 |
| WallAvoider | wallfollower | 229.1→141.1 | -88.0 | 2.67→3.00 | +0.33 | -124.4 | -14.57 | 277→339 |
| HawkOnFire | cornercamper | 150.7→134.2 | -16.5 | 1.67→1.33 | -0.33 | +28.8 | +1.77 | 410→436 |
| SpinBot | spinner | 279.3→287.7 | +8.3 | 3.00→3.00 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0.45 | 351→308 |
| DiamondStealer | rammer | 139.4→154.5 | +15.1 | 0.67→2.00 | +1.33 | -57.4 | -6.08 | 235→254 |
| BlitzBat | brawler | 54.3→57.3 | +3.1 | 2.00→1.67 | -0.33 | +57.7 | +2.97 | 422→436 |
| YersiniaPestis | aggressive | 52.3→45.2 | -7.1 | 0.33→0.00 | -0.33 | +21.2 | +2.66 | 401→376 |
| Ascendant | aggressive | 73.3→70.3 | -3.0 | 0.00→0.00 | +0.00 | -23.2 | -8.01 | 317→371 |

### MEASURED: pooled dashboard (all valid runs, NOT the verdict)

| arm | runs | dmg/run | dmg taken/run | wins/run | round wins | win rate | incoming hit rate | mean distance |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| `tfil` | 45 | 118.9 | 199.8 | 1.22 | 55/135 | 40.7% | 18.17% | 382 |
| `strafe_notilt` | 45 | 108.8 | 150.3 | 1.60 | 72/135 | 53.3% | 12.24% | 456 |
| `strafe_325` | 45 | 111.8 | 155.7 | 1.56 | 70/135 | 51.9% | 13.14% | 436 |
| `ring` | 45 | 150.1 | 225.1 | 1.18 | 53/135 | 39.3% | 29.42% | 236 |
| `ring_notemp` | 45 | 108.2 | 193.4 | 1.29 | 58/135 | 43.0% | 16.67% | 395 |

### MEASURED: cross-opponent aggregation (the verdict layer)

Deltas are per-opponent (arm − reference). `spread` is the SD of those deltas ACROSS opponents; `SE` = spread/√n; `95% CI` = mean ± t·SE. Sign test = how many opponents the arm wins (ties dropped), exact binomial; sign-flip = permutation test on the mean of the deltas.

| arm | metric | mean Δ | spread (SD) | SE | 95% CI | sign test (wins/n) | p(sign) | p(sign-flip) | Wilcoxon p | MDE |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| `strafe_notilt` | damage | -10.15 | 28.19 | 7.28 | [-25.76, +5.46] | 6/15 | 0.6072 | 0.1887 (exact 2^15) | 0.3787 | 20.39 |
| `strafe_notilt` | wins | +0.38 | 0.40 | 0.10 | [+0.16, +0.60] | 9/9 | 0.003906 | 0.003906 (exact 2^15) | 0.008969 | 0.29 |
| `strafe_notilt` | damage_taken | -49.44 | 23.28 | 6.01 | [-62.33, -36.54] | 0/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 16.84 |
| `strafe_notilt` | hit_rate | -7.34 | 4.10 | 1.06 | [-9.61, -5.07] | 0/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 2.96 |
| `strafe_notilt` | dist | +74.36 | 54.83 | 14.16 | [+44.00, +104.73] | 13/15 | 0.007385 | 0.0003662 (exact 2^15) | 0.001621 | 39.66 |
| `strafe_325` | damage | -7.15 | 27.04 | 6.98 | [-22.13, +7.82] | 6/15 | 0.6072 | 0.3276 (exact 2^15) | 0.5137 | 19.56 |
| `strafe_325` | wins | +0.33 | 0.53 | 0.14 | [+0.04, +0.63] | 10/12 | 0.03857 | 0.04688 (exact 2^15) | 0.05424 | 0.39 |
| `strafe_325` | damage_taken | -44.05 | 29.86 | 7.71 | [-60.58, -27.51] | 0/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 21.60 |
| `strafe_325` | hit_rate | -6.51 | 3.58 | 0.92 | [-8.49, -4.53] | 0/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 2.59 |
| `strafe_325` | dist | +53.77 | 33.71 | 8.70 | [+35.10, +72.44] | 14/15 | 0.0009766 | 0.0001831 (exact 2^15) | 0.001092 | 24.38 |
| `ring` | damage | +31.19 | 35.61 | 9.19 | [+11.47, +50.91] | 13/15 | 0.007385 | 0.001587 (exact 2^15) | 0.004932 | 25.76 |
| `ring` | wins | -0.04 | 0.56 | 0.14 | [-0.36, +0.27] | 4/9 | 1 | 0.8828 (exact 2^15) | 0.6776 | 0.41 |
| `ring` | damage_taken | +25.35 | 43.46 | 11.22 | [+1.27, +49.42] | 12/15 | 0.03516 | 0.04059 (exact 2^15) | 0.05708 | 31.44 |
| `ring` | hit_rate | +10.61 | 6.32 | 1.63 | [+7.11, +14.11] | 14/15 | 0.0009766 | 0.0001831 (exact 2^15) | 0.001092 | 4.57 |
| `ring` | dist | -146.25 | 60.84 | 15.71 | [-179.94, -112.56] | 0/15 | 6.104e-05 | 6.104e-05 (exact 2^15) | 0.0007265 | 44.01 |
| `ring_notemp` | damage | -10.73 | 28.24 | 7.29 | [-26.37, +4.91] | 6/15 | 0.6072 | 0.1772 (exact 2^15) | 0.3487 | 20.43 |
| `ring_notemp` | wins | +0.07 | 0.61 | 0.16 | [-0.27, +0.40] | 4/9 | 1 | 0.8086 (exact 2^15) | 0.9525 | 0.44 |
| `ring_notemp` | damage_taken | -6.31 | 46.39 | 11.98 | [-32.00, +19.38] | 6/14 | 0.7905 | 0.632 (exact 2^15) | 0.8017 | 33.56 |
| `ring_notemp` | hit_rate | -2.00 | 4.87 | 1.26 | [-4.69, +0.70] | 7/15 | 1 | 0.1341 (exact 2^15) | 0.2681 | 3.52 |
| `ring_notemp` | dist | +13.34 | 29.63 | 7.65 | [-3.07, +29.75] | 11/15 | 0.1185 | 0.1037 (exact 2^15) | 0.1055 | 21.43 |

#### By inferred style (explanation only, never the verdict)

| arm | style | n | mean Δdmg | mean Δwins | mean Δhit rate (pp) |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| `strafe_notilt` | aggressive | 2 | +15.4 | +0.50 | -10.19 |
| `strafe_notilt` | brawler | 1 | -12.8 | +1.00 | -13.42 |
| `strafe_notilt` | cornercamper | 1 | -55.0 | +0.00 | -7.27 |
| `strafe_notilt` | dodger | 5 | -3.1 | +0.40 | -6.57 |
| `strafe_notilt` | pattern | 3 | -13.5 | +0.44 | -3.21 |
| `strafe_notilt` | rammer | 1 | +15.2 | +0.33 | -2.80 |
| `strafe_notilt` | spinner | 1 | -8.0 | +0.00 | -14.27 |
| `strafe_notilt` | wallfollower | 1 | -66.9 | +0.00 | -9.49 |
| `strafe_325` | aggressive | 2 | +17.0 | +0.50 | -7.89 |
| `strafe_325` | brawler | 1 | +6.3 | +0.67 | -10.88 |
| `strafe_325` | cornercamper | 1 | -30.9 | +0.33 | -5.38 |
| `strafe_325` | dodger | 5 | -5.7 | +0.47 | -5.91 |
| `strafe_325` | pattern | 3 | +0.4 | +0.33 | -3.88 |
| `strafe_325` | rammer | 1 | -4.1 | +0.67 | -3.50 |
| `strafe_325` | spinner | 1 | -20.0 | +0.00 | -12.96 |
| `strafe_325` | wallfollower | 1 | -65.2 | -1.00 | -7.90 |
| `ring` | aggressive | 2 | -2.8 | -0.17 | +12.18 |
| `ring` | brawler | 1 | +102.5 | +0.67 | +12.71 |
| `ring` | cornercamper | 1 | +25.7 | +0.67 | +11.76 |
| `ring` | dodger | 5 | +30.4 | -0.33 | +11.16 |
| `ring` | pattern | 3 | +45.7 | +0.11 | +8.30 |
| `ring` | rammer | 1 | +9.3 | +0.67 | -1.78 |
| `ring` | spinner | 1 | +56.7 | +0.00 | +24.20 |
| `ring` | wallfollower | 1 | -9.6 | -1.00 | +7.21 |
| `ring_notemp` | aggressive | 2 | -5.1 | -0.17 | -2.67 |
| `ring_notemp` | brawler | 1 | +3.1 | -0.33 | +2.97 |
| `ring_notemp` | cornercamper | 1 | -16.5 | -0.33 | +1.77 |
| `ring_notemp` | dodger | 5 | -4.0 | +0.27 | -2.60 |
| `ring_notemp` | pattern | 3 | -17.6 | -0.33 | +1.30 |
| `ring_notemp` | rammer | 1 | +15.1 | +1.33 | -6.08 |
| `ring_notemp` | spinner | 1 | +8.3 | +0.00 | +0.45 |
| `ring_notemp` | wallfollower | 1 | -88.0 | +0.33 | -14.57 |

#### The pre-registered verdict table, as printed by the analyzer

PRIMARY metrics are dmg/run and wins/run; hit rate is never the verdict. The pre-registered rule says an arm is BETTER when one primary metric is UP at sign-test p<0.05 `while the other does not go down`. That phrase has two readings and BOTH are printed:

* **strict** — the other metric's mean delta is not negative at all (`Δ >= 0`). Nothing can be BETTER while it costs *any* mean damage.
* **substantive** — the other metric's delta is not *detectably* down: the sign test is not significant **and** the delta is smaller than that metric's MDE (the pre-registered rule 3 says an effect under the MDE is not detectable, so it cannot count as a loss).

| rank | arm | Δwins/run | Δdmg/run | sign test wins | sign test dmg | verdict (strict) | verdict (substantive) |
|---:|---|---:|---:|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | `strafe_notilt` | +0.38 | -10.2 | 9/9 p=0.003906 | 6/15 p=0.6072 | **not distinguishable** | **BETTER** |
| 2 | `strafe_325` | +0.33 | -7.2 | 10/12 p=0.03857 | 6/15 p=0.6072 | **not distinguishable** | **BETTER** |
| 3 | `ring_notemp` | +0.07 | -10.7 | 4/9 p=1 | 6/15 p=0.6072 | **not distinguishable** | **not distinguishable** |
| 4 | `ring` | -0.04 | +31.2 | 4/9 p=1 | 13/15 p=0.007385 | **not distinguishable** | **BETTER** |

Reference `tfil`: 118.9 dmg/run, 1.22 wins/run, 18.17% incoming, 382 px.

Highest wins delta: `strafe_notilt` (+0.38 wins/run, -10.2 dmg/run) — strict: **not distinguishable**, substantive: **BETTER**.


---

## 4. What to try next (seeded; every later job adds its own)

1. **If a range-steering arm wins the panel:** the win is a *range* effect, so
   sweep the *band* on the winning engine (e.g. `TR_TFIL_RANGE_LO/HI` on
   `tfil_ring`, `TR_STRAFE_RANGE` on `strafe`) with the same panel, 4–5 bands,
   and look for a plateau rather than a peak. A plateau is a result; a peak is a
   coin flip.
2. **If nothing beats `tfil`:** stop tuning movement by feel. The next honest
   lever is *enemy-model-driven* placement (keep the bot where the enemy's
   expected hit probability is lowest *given its gun model*), which needs a
   per-opponent measurement, not a knob.
3. **Melee is a different game** (j116's finding): if a melee campaign is
   opened, it needs its own panel and its own ledger section — do not reuse the
   1v1 panel's verdicts.
4. **Close the loop with the enemy's own model:** `ab_mechanism.py`-style
   instrumentation (time spent within 100 px of a live enemy bullet, hit-rate by
   range band) is available and cheap — use it to *explain* a win, never to
   declare one.
5. **Then the gun** (owner's next stage): the same harness, a gun panel, and the
   same paired-with-sign-test statistics. `docs/surfer_wiring_ab.md` and the j117
   gauntlet are the gun-side priors to beat.

## 5. What would make us stop

* **Stop the movement stage** when a batch produces an arm that is BETTER than
  the shipped default on the frozen panel by rule 2 **and** the effect survives
  the between-opponent spread (|Δ| > MDE, or a sign test that wins on ≥ 2/3 of
  the panel). That arm becomes the new default *candidate* (shipping is a
  separate decision — this campaign never edits a shipped default).
* **Stop and move to the gun** if two consecutive batches fail to produce an arm
  that beats the shipped `tfil` beyond the MDE: at that point the honest
  conclusion is *"the shipped movement is the measured optimum of this design
  space"*, which is a successful campaign outcome, not a failure.
* **Stop a single batch early** only for a contract violation (arena not free,
  liveness FAIL, non-zero exit rate) — never because the numbers look boring.

## 6. How to run a batch (exact commands)

```sh
# 1. wait for the arena (this job may not be the only one fighting)
tools/ab/tournament_run.sh \
    --arms    tools/ab/arms_movement_b1.txt \
    --panel   tools/ab/panel_movement.txt \
    --runs 3 --rounds 3 --conc 6 --wait-arena 45 \
    --reference tfil \
    --outdir /tmp/ab/j118_b1

# 2. the paired per-opponent table, sign tests, MDE and the pre-registered verdict
python3 tools/ab/tournament_analyze.py /tmp/ab/j118_b1 --reference tfil
```

The runner writes `<outdir>/session.json` (commit sha, binary sha256, arms,
panel) so any later job can re-analyze an old session offline, with no arena.