# ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── # arms_movement_v2.txt — GATE-V2 fresh-data confirmation of the movement # champion, run at the HIGHEST power of the campaign (10 runs/arm vs 5 in the # gate-v1 confirmation) on the FROZEN panel tools/ab/panel_movement.txt. # # Why this file exists (see docs/movement_campaign.md, "Fresh-data confirmation # (gate v2)", pre-registered and committed BEFORE these battles): # * Gate v1 (commit ff03e81) required BOTH a pooled 95% CI excluding 0 AND the # plain cross-opponent sign test at p<0.05. The CI passed; the plain sign # test failed at 10/13 decisive, p=0.0923. The plain sign test is the # WEAKEST of the three cross-opponent tests the analyzer prints (it discards # the magnitude of each paired delta) and was underpowered at n=13. # * The gate-v1 failure is NOT reinterpreted. Gate v2 is a NEW # pre-registration with the sign-flip permutation test as the PRIMARY test, # confirmed on FRESH, independent data. # # PRIMARY TEST (pre-committed): sign-flip permutation test on per-opponent # paired Δwins/run, two-sided p<0.05 AND pooled 95% CI excluding 0 AND a # positive point estimate. Ship the default flip ONLY if it passes. # # REFERENCE is `tfil` — every delta below is (arm − tfil), opponent by opponent. # # Format: name | ENV=value ENV=value | label # ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── # 1. THE CHAMPION under gate-v2 confirmation — current strafe defaults. strafe | TR_MOVEMENT=strafe | champion — current strafe defaults (candidate to ship) # 2. THE ARM TO BEAT — the currently shipped default, explicitly selected. # (The explicit `TR_MOVEMENT=tfil` also proves the override path stays # reachable after any default flip.) tfil | TR_MOVEMENT=tfil | shipped baseline — explicit tfil override