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SirStone f58d65d2e8 TMComposites gate: per-gun confidence faithful for 3 guns; no pair composes
Adds a per-sample intrinsic-confidence field (GunPrediction.confidence,
threaded through FeedbackEvent/VirtualBullet, populated by Pattern, DecayGF,
KNN, GuessFactor, Tsetlin, TMHorizon) and an offline recorder + analyzer that
reproduce the paper's Figure 2 per gun and its Eq-8 composite.

Measured on 3 held-out tr-bridge DrussGT battles (33k ticks, ~133k samples/gun):
- FAITHFUL: DecayGF (rho +0.133), KNN (+0.090), Pattern (+0.064, weak).
- GuessFactor is ANTI-faithful (rho -0.067); Tsetlin c_max is useless (0.001).
- No pair of guns specialises complementarily: the same gun dominates both
  high-confidence slices in every pair.
- Eq-8 alpha-normalised confidence-weighted composite: 18.41% vs Pattern
  20.45% (McNemar p=3.1e-126). Faithful-only variant 18.68%, still loses.
  Shuffle control passes weakly (composite > shuffle, p=4e-14) so ~0.7pp of
  competence is real but ~2pp short. Offline veto: design is dead.

See docs/tmcomposites_gate.md.
2026-09-25 22:04:39 +02:00

344 lines
13 KiB
Nim

## KNN gun: K-nearest-neighbor statistical targeting inspired by DrussGT's DC gun.
## Builds a feature vector per scan, stores resolved GF outcomes, queries KNN at
## predict time and picks the GF with the highest Gaussian-weighted density.
## ponytail: linear scan O(n*k), cap at 2000 obs — KD-tree if perf matters at scale.
import std/[math]
import gun_harness/gun_interface
import gun_harness/virtual_bullets as vb # PowerBins
import guns/lead_forecast
const
MaxObs = 2000 # ring-buffer cap
KCap = 50 # hard ceiling on K
KernelW = 0.3 # Gaussian kernel width multiplier
DensityBins = 60 # scan resolution for peak-GF search
NFeat = 8 # feature vector length (see buildFeatures)
KNNWaveRingSlots = 1024 # exact (fireTick, powerBin) ring; see guess_factor.nim
type
Obs = object
feat: array[NFeat, float] # normalized feature vector
gf: float # observed GF at wave resolution
KNNWave = object
fireX, fireY: float
fireBearing: float
fireTick: int
bin: int
alive: bool
feat: array[NFeat, float]
KNNGun* = object
obs: seq[Obs]
obsHead: int # ring-buffer write index
# Exact (fireTick, powerBin)-keyed ring; a resolved bullet is matched to the
# wave it actually fired, no matter how many other shots resolved first.
# Heap-backed (seq): see guess_factor.nim.
waves: seq[KNNWave]
waveStoredTick: array[len(vb.PowerBins), int] # last tick a wave was queued for this bin
# per-tick cache
cachedTick: int
vt: VelocityTracker # enemy velocity history (base selection)
tickWave: KNNWave # wave template for the current tick (features computed once)
# rolling normalization ranges
featMin: array[NFeat, float]
featMax: array[NFeat, float]
# state for feature extraction
lastSpeed: float
lastDirection: float # +1 or -1
timeSinceDirChange: int
wavePushes*: int
waveStarved*: int
waveResolved*: int
waveMispaired*: int # ring-slot collision (impossible by design)
debugGraphics*: bool
proc initKNNGun*(): KNNGun =
result.cachedTick = -1
result.lastDirection = 1.0
result.debugGraphics = false
result.waves = newSeq[KNNWave](KNNWaveRingSlots)
for b in 0..<len(vb.PowerBins):
result.waveStoredTick[b] = -1
for i in 0..<NFeat:
result.featMin[i] = 1e18
result.featMax[i] = -1e18
# Energy (dim NFeat-1) stays on a FIXED [0,1] scale: a threshold behaviour is
# keyed to the target's ABSOLUTE energy, so min-max normalizing it against the
# observed range would smear the very boundary the feature exists to expose.
result.featMin[NFeat - 1] = 0.0
result.featMax[NFeat - 1] = 1.0
# ── helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
proc normFeat(g: KNNGun, raw: array[NFeat, float]): array[NFeat, float] =
for i in 0..<NFeat:
let span = g.featMax[i] - g.featMin[i]
result[i] = if span > 1e-9: (raw[i] - g.featMin[i]) / span else: 0.0
proc updateMinMax(g: var KNNGun, raw: array[NFeat, float]) =
for i in 0..<NFeat - 1:
if raw[i] < g.featMin[i]: g.featMin[i] = raw[i]
if raw[i] > g.featMax[i]: g.featMax[i] = raw[i]
proc buildFeatures(state: WorldState, lastSpeed, lastDir: float,
tsdc: int): array[NFeat, float] =
let dx = state.enemyX - state.selfX
let dy = state.enemyY - state.selfY
let dist = sqrt(dx*dx + dy*dy)
let arenaDiag = sqrt(state.arenaWidth*state.arenaWidth + state.arenaHeight*state.arenaHeight)
# bearing to enemy (0°=East, standard Tank Royale)
let bearing = arctan2(dy, dx)
# angle of enemy heading relative to bearing
let relHead = state.enemyHeading - bearing
let latVel = state.enemySpeed * sin(relHead)
let advVel = state.enemySpeed * (-cos(relHead))
let accel = state.enemySpeed - lastSpeed # signed delta
# wall distances: how far enemy can travel fwd/bwd before hitting wall
# approximate: project enemy heading to nearest wall in each axis
let ex = state.enemyX
let ey = state.enemyY
let eh = state.enemyHeading
# forward distances to each wall in heading direction
let fwdX = if cos(eh) > 0: (state.arenaWidth - ex) / max(abs(cos(eh)), 1e-9)
else: ex / max(abs(cos(eh)), 1e-9)
let fwdY = if sin(eh) > 0: (state.arenaHeight - ey) / max(abs(sin(eh)), 1e-9)
else: ey / max(abs(sin(eh)), 1e-9)
let fwdDist = min(fwdX, fwdY)
# backward = forward in opposite direction
let bwdX = if cos(eh) < 0: (state.arenaWidth - ex) / max(abs(cos(eh)), 1e-9)
else: ex / max(abs(cos(eh)), 1e-9)
let bwdY = if sin(eh) < 0: (state.arenaHeight - ey) / max(abs(sin(eh)), 1e-9)
else: ey / max(abs(sin(eh)), 1e-9)
let bwdDist = min(bwdX, bwdY)
result[0] = abs(latVel) / 8.0
result[1] = clamp(advVel / 8.0, -1.0, 1.0) * 0.5 + 0.5 # shift to [0,1]
result[2] = clamp(dist / arenaDiag, 0.0, 1.0)
result[3] = clamp(accel / 2.0, -1.0, 1.0) * 0.5 + 0.5
result[4] = clamp(float(tsdc) / 100.0, 0.0, 1.0)
result[5] = clamp(fwdDist / arenaDiag, 0.0, 1.0)
result[6] = clamp(bwdDist / arenaDiag, 0.0, 1.0)
# Enemy energy. The only feature that can separate behaviours that depend on
# the target's own remaining energy (e.g. an energy-threshold turner that
# changes movement below 30). Kept on a fixed [0,1] scale (see initKNNGun).
result[7] = clamp(state.enemyEnergy / 100.0, 0.0, 1.0)
proc euclidean(a, b: array[NFeat, float]): float {.inline.} =
for i in 0..<NFeat:
let d = a[i] - b[i]
result += d * d
result = sqrt(result)
proc binForSpeed(spd: float): int {.inline.} =
## Map a virtual-bullet speed back to its power-bin index. All four bin speeds
## are exactly representable floats; the epsilon is belt-and-braces only.
for i in 0..<len(vb.PowerBins):
if abs(spd - bulletSpeed(vb.PowerBins[i])) < 1e-6:
return i
-1
proc binForPower(power: float): int {.inline.} =
## Map a FeedbackEvent.bulletPower back to its power-bin index.
for i in 0..<len(vb.PowerBins):
if abs(power - vb.PowerBins[i]) < 1e-6:
return i
-1
proc waveSlot(fireTick, binIdx: int): int {.inline.} =
## Exact (fireTick, powerBin) key -> ring slot (same scheme as tsetlin.nim).
((fireTick * len(vb.PowerBins)) + binIdx) mod KNNWaveRingSlots
# ── Gun interface ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
proc predict*(g: var KNNGun, state: WorldState, bulletSpd: float): GunPrediction =
if bulletSpd <= 0.0:
return GunPrediction(x: state.enemyX, y: state.enemyY)
let dx = state.enemyX - state.selfX
let dy = state.enemyY - state.selfY
let bearing = arctan2(dy, dx)
let mea = arcsin(clamp(8.0 / bulletSpd, -1.0, 1.0))
# Track direction change — update state once per tick
if state.tick != g.cachedTick:
g.cachedTick = state.tick
g.vt.observe(state)
let relHead = state.enemyHeading - bearing
let latVel = state.enemySpeed * sin(relHead)
let newDir = if latVel >= 0: 1.0 else: -1.0
if newDir != g.lastDirection and abs(latVel) > 0.01:
g.timeSinceDirChange = 0
g.lastDirection = newDir
else:
inc g.timeSinceDirChange
# Compute the tick's feature vector ONCE, before lastSpeed is advanced, so
# every power bin fired this tick shares identical features. lastSpeed is
# only advanced here (once/tick), not once per bin.
let feat = buildFeatures(state, g.lastSpeed, g.lastDirection, g.timeSinceDirChange)
g.updateMinMax(feat)
g.tickWave = KNNWave(
fireX: state.selfX,
fireY: state.selfY,
fireBearing: bearing,
fireTick: state.tick,
feat: feat,
)
g.lastSpeed = state.enemySpeed
# Base forecast: the KNN learns the GF residual against a self-consistent base
# prediction (see lead_forecast.nim).
let f = forecastRadialBlend(state, bulletSpd, g.vt)
# Queue at most one wave per (tick, power bin). The fire site's extra predict()
# call for the selected bin lands on the same tick and reuses the queued wave.
let binIdx = binForSpeed(bulletSpd)
if binIdx >= 0 and g.waveStoredTick[binIdx] != state.tick:
# fireBearing is the base forecast bearing, which is per-power (flight time
# differs per bin); override the shared per-tick template here.
var w = g.tickWave
w.fireBearing = f.bearing
w.fireTick = state.tick
w.bin = binIdx
w.alive = true
g.waves[waveSlot(state.tick, binIdx)] = w
g.waveStoredTick[binIdx] = state.tick
inc g.wavePushes
# Cold start — no data yet: fall back to the self-consistent linear forecast.
if g.obs.len == 0:
return GunPrediction(
x: clamp(f.x, BotRadius, state.arenaWidth - BotRadius),
y: clamp(f.y, BotRadius, state.arenaHeight - BotRadius),
)
# Build query feature vector (use current state)
let queryRaw = buildFeatures(state, g.lastSpeed, g.lastDirection, g.timeSinceDirChange)
let query = g.normFeat(queryRaw)
# KNN: linear scan, pick k = max(5, min(sqrt(n), KCap))
# Fall back to head-on when not enough neighbors to be meaningful
let n = g.obs.len
if n < 5:
return GunPrediction(
x: clamp(f.x, BotRadius, state.arenaWidth - BotRadius),
y: clamp(f.y, BotRadius, state.arenaHeight - BotRadius),
)
let k = max(5, min(int(sqrt(float(n))), KCap))
# Partial selection: maintain k-best by tracking max distance in result set
# ponytail: O(n*k) insertion; fine for n<=2000, k<=50
var bestDists = newSeq[float](k)
var bestGFs = newSeq[float](k)
var worstIdx = 0
var filled = 0
for i in 0..<n:
let normFeat = g.normFeat(g.obs[i].feat)
let d = euclidean(query, normFeat)
if filled < k:
bestDists[filled] = d
bestGFs[filled] = g.obs[i].gf
inc filled
if filled == k:
# find worst
worstIdx = 0
for j in 1..<k:
if bestDists[j] > bestDists[worstIdx]: worstIdx = j
elif d < bestDists[worstIdx]:
bestDists[worstIdx] = d
bestGFs[worstIdx] = g.obs[i].gf
worstIdx = 0
for j in 1..<k:
if bestDists[j] > bestDists[worstIdx]: worstIdx = j
if filled == 0:
return GunPrediction(
x: clamp(f.x, BotRadius, state.arenaWidth - BotRadius),
y: clamp(f.y, BotRadius, state.arenaHeight - BotRadius),
)
# Inverse-distance weights, Gaussian (same as DrussGT getBearingGaussian)
var sumDist = 1e-30
for i in 0..<filled: sumDist += bestDists[i]
let invAvg = float(filled) / sumDist
# Find GF range of neighbors
var gfMin = bestGFs[0]
var gfMax = bestGFs[0]
for i in 1..<filled:
if bestGFs[i] < gfMin: gfMin = bestGFs[i]
if bestGFs[i] > gfMax: gfMax = bestGFs[i]
# Scan DensityBins points in [gfMin, gfMax] for peak density
let span = max(gfMax - gfMin, 1e-9)
let step = span / float(DensityBins - 1)
var bestGF = gfMin
var bestScore = -1.0
for b in 0..<DensityBins:
let testGF = gfMin + float(b) * step
var score = 0.0
for i in 0..<filled:
let w = exp(-0.5 * (bestDists[i] * invAvg) * (bestDists[i] * invAvg))
let dg = (testGF - bestGFs[i]) / max(span * KernelW, 1e-9)
score += w * exp(-0.5 * dg * dg)
if score > bestScore:
bestScore = score
bestGF = testGF
let aimAngle = f.bearing + clamp(bestGF, -1.0, 1.0) * mea
let px = state.selfX + cos(aimAngle) * f.dist
let py = state.selfY + sin(aimAngle) * f.dist
GunPrediction(
x: clamp(px, BotRadius, state.arenaWidth - BotRadius),
y: clamp(py, BotRadius, state.arenaHeight - BotRadius),
# TMComposites Eq 4 analogue: the KNN Gaussian density over GF candidates is
# the class distribution; bestScore is the class-sum max. Cold-start returns
# (no data / < 5 neighbours) leave the default 0.0 = no vote.
confidence: bestScore,
)
proc onResult*(g: var KNNGun, e: FeedbackEvent) =
let binIdx =
if e.powerBin >= 0 and e.powerBin < len(vb.PowerBins): e.powerBin
else: binForPower(e.bulletPower)
if binIdx < 0: return
let slot = waveSlot(e.fireTick, binIdx)
var w = addr g.waves[slot]
if not w.alive:
inc g.waveStarved
return
if w.fireTick != e.fireTick:
inc g.waveMispaired
inc g.waveStarved
return
inc g.waveResolved
let speed = bulletSpeed(e.bulletPower)
let mea = arcsin(clamp(8.0 / speed, -1.0, 1.0))
let ax = e.actualX - w.fireX
let ay = e.actualY - w.fireY
var delta = arctan2(ay, ax) - w.fireBearing
while delta > PI: delta -= 2.0 * PI
while delta < -PI: delta += 2.0 * PI
let gf = if mea > 1e-10: clamp(delta / mea, -1.0, 1.0) else: 0.0
g.updateMinMax(w.feat)
if g.obs.len < MaxObs:
g.obs.add Obs(feat: w.feat, gf: gf)
else:
# ring buffer
g.obs[g.obsHead] = Obs(feat: w.feat, gf: gf)
g.obsHead = (g.obsHead + 1) mod MaxObs
w.alive = false