40 lines
2.6 KiB
Plaintext
40 lines
2.6 KiB
Plaintext
# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# arms_movement_final.txt — FINAL CONFIRMATION of the movement champion, run at
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# HIGHER POWER than any previous batch (5 runs/arm vs 3), on the FROZEN panel
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# tools/ab/panel_movement.txt.
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#
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# Prior data this batch is built on (docs/movement_campaign.md §3–§5, Batches
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# 3+4 consolidated, MEASURED on the frozen panel across four independent
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# sessions, ~900 battles):
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# * `TR_MOVEMENT=strafe` (current defaults) BEATS the shipped `tfil` on round
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# wins in EVERY session: +0.38/+0.33 (B1), +0.58/+0.47 (B2), and 53.0% vs
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# 42.2% (B3), 52.6% vs 38.5% (B4) — all 95% CIs excluding 0, sign test
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# favouring strafe.
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# * It wins by SURVIVAL: incoming hit rate ~12% vs tfil's ~18%, ~50 less
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# damage taken/run, NO detectable damage cost.
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# * 8 further arms (reversal timing, spread/reach, heat-field strength, wall
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# margin/curvature) were swept in Batches 3–4: NOTHING beats `strafe`.
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# `wide_spread` is the only positive point estimate (+0.11 wins/run, NS,
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# p=0.55, MDE 0.56) — a TIE, carried here as the single challenger.
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#
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# SHIP CRITERION (pre-registered in docs/movement_campaign.md before the
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# battles): ship only if `strafe` beats `tfil` head-to-head with the 95% CI on
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# wins/run EXCLUDING 0 AND the cross-opponent sign test FAVOURING `strafe`.
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#
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# REFERENCE is `tfil` — every delta below is (arm − tfil), opponent by opponent.
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#
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# Format: name | ENV=value ENV=value | label
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# ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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# 1. THE CHAMPION under confirmation — current strafe defaults.
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strafe | TR_MOVEMENT=strafe | champion — current strafe defaults (candidate to ship)
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# 2. THE ARM TO BEAT — the currently shipped default, explicitly selected.
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# (The explicit `TR_MOVEMENT=tfil` matters: it also proves the override path
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# stays reachable after any default flip.)
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tfil | TR_MOVEMENT=tfil | shipped baseline — explicit tfil override
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# 3. THE ONLY CHALLENGER with a positive wins point estimate from Batches 3–4
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# (+0.11/run, damage-neutral, not distinguishable — expected to tie).
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wide_spread | TR_MOVEMENT=strafe TR_STRAFE_SPREAD=2 TR_STRAFE_REACH=216 | Batches 3–4 positive-point challenger (±2 tiles, 216px)
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