Files
SirRoboGarage/common_libs/guns/decay_gf.nim
T
SirStone 7f706e5b14 fix(guns): GF family aimed at the wrong RADIUS, not the wrong angle
The entire GuessFactor family scored 0% on clean circular and wall-bounce
trajectories. Two hypotheses were on the table and BOTH were wrong:

- MEA range too narrow / edge clamping: REFUTED. Measured 0 clamped shots
  out of 837/849/957, required offsets peak at ~33 deg against MEA
  28.1-46.7 deg, and the 8 in arcsin(8/bulletSpeed) is correct (it is the max
  robot SPEED, not the hit radius). Changing it to BotRadius=18 would have
  coarsened resolution for nothing.
- Peak selection: REFUTED. A sweep of every constant GF value showed the
  ORACLE-BEST constant offset on the original gun was only 6% circular,
  4% wall-bounce, 7.5% random-walk. No peak choice could have done better.
  The learning path was fine too: ~850-960 observations per fixture, 0
  starved waves, well-populated histograms.

REAL CAUSE: the GF family aimed at the FIRE-TIME distance. The virtual-bullet
metric resolves a bullet at the AIM-POINT distance and scores that single
point against the enemy's position on that tick, so with any radial target
motion the bullet stops at the wrong radius and misses even with a perfect
angle. Angle-only prediction is structurally unscoreable under this metric.

FIX: give the GF family a self-consistent constant-velocity forecast as its
base reference (new common_libs/guns/lead_forecast.nim, which iterates the
flight time to the same fixed point circular.nim uses), so the histogram
learns the RESIDUAL against that forecast and the aim point lands at the
right radius. Applied to guess_factor, decay_gf and knn_gun.

Same defect fixed in Linear: it did a one-shot dist/bulletSpeed extrapolation
and never iterated its flight time.

The oracle sweep proves the structural fix, independently of tuning: the best
achievable constant GF moved 6% -> 20% (circular), 4% -> 57% (wall-bounce),
7.5% -> 49% (random-walk).

MEASURED, all 15 fixtures: total 39.0% -> 44.4% (30399 -> 34654 hits).
  circular       GF 6 -> 23,   DecayGF 6 -> 21
  wall-bounce    GF 0 -> 60.2, DecayGF 0 -> 60.2
  constant-vel   GF 26 -> 100, DecayGF 26 -> 100, KNN 26 -> 100, Linear 87 -> 100
  random-walk    GF 0 -> 53,   DecayGF 0 -> 52,  Linear 24 -> 53
  StraightLine   GF 8 -> 77,   DecayGF 8 -> 77
Non-regression: 33 guard checks pass, the range's 12/12 offline==online
acceptance still PASSES, tsetlin tests green, live gauntlet 5/5.

HONEST TRADE-OFF, recorded rather than hidden: on the 5 real DrussGT
wave-surfing captures the GF family REGRESSES - GuessFactor 108 -> 55,
DecayGF 108 -> 76, KNN 101 -> 74 hits per 2000. The linear base is a poor
model for a surfer, so the residual histogram is noisier than the old
total-lead histogram. Linear itself improved there (95 -> 105). The synthetic
range and the live gauntlet both improved, and the structural bug is provably
fixed, so this was judged worth the cost - but recovering the DrussGT
regression is the next job, not something to wave away.
2026-09-21 00:56:02 +02:00

136 lines
4.6 KiB
Nim

## Recency-weighted GF gun: exponential decay on histogram bins.
## decay=0.998/tick gives ~350-tick half-life — adapts to mid-battle strategy shifts.
## Everything else identical to guess_factor.nim, including per-power-bin wave queues.
import std/math
import gun_harness/gun_interface
import gun_harness/virtual_bullets as vb # PowerBins
import guns/lead_forecast
const
GFBins = 31
GFPrior = 0.1
DecayRate = 0.998 # ponytail: single global decay, tune if adaptation too slow/fast
DecayWaveCompactAt = 64
type
DWave = object
fireX, fireY: float
fireBearing: float
DecayGFGun* = object
bins: array[GFBins, float]
# One wave queue per power bin; a resolved bullet only learns from a wave
# queued for its own bin (matched on bulletSpeed / bulletPower).
waves: array[len(vb.PowerBins), seq[DWave]]
waveHead: array[len(vb.PowerBins), int] # O(1) pop cursor
waveStoredTick: array[len(vb.PowerBins), int] # last tick a wave was queued for this bin
cachedTick: int # last tick bins were decayed
wavePushes*: int
waveStarved*: int
debugGraphics*: bool
proc initDecayGFGun*(): DecayGFGun =
result.cachedTick = -1
result.debugGraphics = false
for b in 0..<len(vb.PowerBins):
result.waveStoredTick[b] = -1
let center = (GFBins - 1) div 2
for i in 0..<GFBins:
let d = abs(i - center)
result.bins[i] = GFPrior + 0.5 / float(1 + d)
proc gfToIndex(gf: float): int {.inline.} =
clamp(int(round((gf + 1.0) * 0.5 * float(GFBins - 1))), 0, GFBins - 1)
proc indexToGF(idx: int): float {.inline.} =
float(idx) / float(GFBins - 1) * 2.0 - 1.0
proc peakBin(g: DecayGFGun): int =
var best = 0
for i in 1..<GFBins:
if g.bins[i] > g.bins[best]:
best = i
best
proc binForSpeed(spd: float): int {.inline.} =
for i in 0..<len(vb.PowerBins):
if abs(spd - bulletSpeed(vb.PowerBins[i])) < 1e-6:
return i
-1
proc binForPower(power: float): int {.inline.} =
for i in 0..<len(vb.PowerBins):
if abs(power - vb.PowerBins[i]) < 1e-6:
return i
-1
proc takeOldestWave(g: var DecayGFGun, binIdx: int): (bool, DWave) =
if binIdx < 0 or g.waveHead[binIdx] >= g.waves[binIdx].len:
return (false, DWave())
result = (true, g.waves[binIdx][g.waveHead[binIdx]])
inc g.waveHead[binIdx]
if g.waveHead[binIdx] >= DecayWaveCompactAt and
g.waveHead[binIdx] * 2 >= g.waves[binIdx].len:
g.waves[binIdx] = g.waves[binIdx][g.waveHead[binIdx] .. g.waves[binIdx].high]
g.waveHead[binIdx] = 0
proc predict*(g: var DecayGFGun, state: WorldState, bulletSpeed: float): GunPrediction =
if bulletSpeed <= 0.0:
return GunPrediction(x: state.enemyX, y: state.enemyY)
let mea = arcsin(clamp(8.0 / bulletSpeed, -1.0, 1.0))
# Base forecast: the GF learns the residual against this self-consistent
# constant-velocity prediction (see lead_forecast.nim for why this is required).
let f = forecastLinear(state, bulletSpeed)
if state.tick != g.cachedTick:
# Decay all bins once per tick
for i in 0..<GFBins:
g.bins[i] *= DecayRate
g.cachedTick = state.tick
# Queue at most one wave per (tick, power bin); the fire site's extra predict()
# call for the selected bin lands on the same tick and reuses the queued wave.
let binIdx = binForSpeed(bulletSpeed)
if binIdx >= 0 and g.waveStoredTick[binIdx] != state.tick:
g.waves[binIdx].add DWave(fireX: state.selfX, fireY: state.selfY, fireBearing: f.bearing)
g.waveStoredTick[binIdx] = state.tick
inc g.wavePushes
let peak = g.peakBin()
let peakGF = indexToGF(peak)
let gfAngle = f.bearing + peakGF * mea
let px = state.selfX + cos(gfAngle) * f.dist
let py = state.selfY + sin(gfAngle) * f.dist
GunPrediction(
x: clamp(px, BotRadius, state.arenaWidth - BotRadius),
y: clamp(py, BotRadius, state.arenaHeight - BotRadius),
)
proc onResult*(g: var DecayGFGun, e: FeedbackEvent) =
let binIdx = binForPower(e.bulletPower)
if binIdx < 0: return
let (found, w) = g.takeOldestWave(binIdx)
if not found:
inc g.waveStarved
return
let speed = bulletSpeed(e.bulletPower)
let mea = arcsin(clamp(8.0 / speed, -1.0, 1.0))
let actualDx = e.actualX - w.fireX
let actualDy = e.actualY - w.fireY
let actualBearing = arctan2(actualDy, actualDx)
var bearingDelta = actualBearing - w.fireBearing
while bearingDelta > PI: bearingDelta -= 2.0*PI
while bearingDelta < -PI: bearingDelta += 2.0*PI
let gf = if mea > 1e-10: clamp(bearingDelta / mea, -1.0, 1.0) else: 0.0
let centerIdx = gfToIndex(gf)
for i in 0..<GFBins:
let d = abs(i - centerIdx)
g.bins[i] += 1.0 / float(1 + d)