SirStone
99f9532f55
The user's plan was separate melee and 1v1 racks. The mechanism is built and
committed (TR_RACK_<GUN>=both|1v1|melee|off, mode from server truth). This job
produced the missing evidence: each candidate gun forced ALONE in BOTH modes,
one frozen binary, env-only arms, exact two-sided permutation tests.
1v1 vs the real DrussGT (6 arms x 5 runs x 7 rounds):
Pattern 10.80% 292 dmg/run 11/35 round wins
KNN 5.58% 128 1/35
Linear 2.99% 59 0/35
Circular 2.89% 60 0/35
WallBounce 2.72% 57 0/35
GuessFactor 2.14% 38 0/35
-> every arm differs from Pattern at p=0.0079 (the 5v5 floor). Per-gun damage
span 7.7x. In 1v1 the gun matters ENORMOUSLY.
Melee (+DrussGT, RandomMover, WaveSurfer, OscillatorBot; enemyCount 4):
WallBounce 25.79% 643 dmg/run 7/25
Linear 24.88% 624 7/25
GuessFactor 24.48% 613 4/25
Pattern 24.39% 599 5/25
Circular 25.88% 596 5/25
KNN 23.87% 539 3/25
-> NO arm beats Pattern with significance (p=0.42-0.96, fully overlapping).
WallBounce's nominal +7.3% is p=0.42. Per-gun damage span only 1.19x.
THE FINDING: in 1v1 the gun matters enormously (7.7x spread); in melee it barely
matters (1.19x). Melee is won by movement, survival and placement, not by which
gun you carry - every candidate lands in the same ~24-26% band. So a separate
melee rack has NO gun-level payoff and DefaultRackMembership stays Pattern-only.
The mechanism remains available if it is ever wanted.
Honest caveats: the melee comparison is UNDER-POWERED at 5 runs (detecting the
~44-damage WallBounce-Pattern gap would need ~2.5-3x the runs), so "no significant
difference" is NOT "no difference"; the only candidate worth re-testing is
WallBounce in melee, and it must not be shipped on this evidence.
SHIM LIMITATION FOUND, worth recording: run_bridge_battle.sh captures with
`--subject DrussGT`, and the shim DROPS every tick once the subject dies - losing
5-20% of ModularBot's shots in melee. The campaign was re-run with
`--subject ModularBot` so ModularBot's events are complete (fires match gun_stats
realShots exactly). Any future melee evidence through this shim must do the same
or it will silently under-count.
Adds docs/melee_vs_1v1_racks.md. No repository source changed.
2.7 KiB
Separate melee and 1v1 racks: the mechanism is built, the payoff is NOT there
The user's plan: "separate racks for melee and 1v1, so the bot switches from those based on the situation, and we can put the guns we want in one or both racks."
The mechanism is built and committed (TR_RACK_<GUN>=both|1v1|melee|off, mode from server truth
getEnemyCount() == 1). The measured verdict is: do not populate it differently. Keep Pattern for
both modes. No split has a gun-level payoff.
1v1 — ModularBot vs the real DrussGT (6 arms × 5 runs × 7 rounds)
| arm | real % | damage/run | round wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pattern | 10.80 | 292 | 11/35 |
| KNN | 5.58 | 128 | 1/35 |
| Linear | 2.99 | 59 | 0/35 |
| Circular | 2.89 | 60 | 0/35 |
| WallBounce | 2.72 | 57 | 0/35 |
| GuessFactor | 2.14 | 38 | 0/35 |
Every arm differs from Pattern at p = 0.0079 (the 5v5 permutation floor). Per-gun damage span: 7.7×.
Melee — +DrussGT, RandomMover, WaveSurfer, OscillatorBot (enemyCount 4)
| arm | real % | damage/run | round wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| WallBounce | 25.79 | 643 | 7/25 |
| Linear | 24.88 | 624 | 7/25 |
| GuessFactor | 24.48 | 613 | 4/25 |
| Pattern | 24.39 | 599 | 5/25 |
| Circular | 25.88 | 596 | 5/25 |
| KNN | 23.87 | 539 | 3/25 |
No arm beats Pattern with significance (p = 0.42–0.96, fully overlapping per-run ranges). WallBounce's nominal +7.3% damage is p=0.42 — not a result. Per-gun damage span: 1.19×.
The finding
In 1v1 the gun matters enormously (7.7× spread); in melee it barely matters (1.19×). Melee is won
by movement, survival and placement, not by which gun you carry — every candidate lands in the same
~24–26% band. So a separate melee rack has no gun-level payoff, and DefaultRackMembership stays
Pattern-only.
Caveats, stated honestly:
- The melee comparison is underpowered at 5 runs: detecting the observed ~44 damage WallBounce–Pattern
gap would need ~2.5–3× the runs. "No significant difference" is not "no difference." If this is
ever revisited, the only candidate worth re-testing is WallBounce in melee
(
TR_RACK_PATTERN=1v1 TR_RACK_WALLBOUNCE=melee, all elseoff) — but do not ship it on this evidence. - Shim limitation found:
run_bridge_battle.shcaptures with--subject DrussGT, and the shim DROPS every tick once the subject dies — losing 5–20% of ModularBot's shots in melee. The melee campaign was re-run with--subject ModularBotso ModularBot's own events are complete (fires matchgun_statsrealShots exactly). Any future melee evidence through this shim must use--subject ModularBot, or it will silently under-count.