Three corrections, all prompted by later measurements:
1. The virtual-vs-real rank correlation is NOT robustly negative. Six
independent Spearman measurements now exist (-0.374, +0.335, +0.522,
-0.371, -0.073, -0.037) and the sign flips on large samples, so it is near
zero on average. The honest headline is that virtual hit rate is a POOR
RANKER, not an inverted one. The report said 'not weak - it is inverted' in
six places; it now says so in none. The practical conclusion (do not trust
it for ranking) is unchanged; the mechanism claimed was wrong.
2. The offline==online acceptance is FIXED, not flaky. Root cause was that the
replay spawned gun 13 (TMSelect) while the live rack has it disabled, and
the shared VirtualTracker ring is ORDER-SENSITIVE, so gun 13's extra 4
bullets/tick permuted the per-tick resolution order for every other gun and
shifted the learning guns' observations. After closing gun 13's ready gate
offline the live and offline KNN traces are byte-identical (904/904 lines,
empty diff). 5/5 consecutive runs now report 12/12 exact with the death
boundary included. Recorded with the lesson: a flaky proof was hiding a real
bug. Also records the general A/B confound - disabling a gun removes its 4
spawns/tick from the shared ring, perturbing resolution order for the rest.
3. Pruning was tested and does NOT help, so the verdict for Tsetlin and
Displace changes from an implied drop to BELOW OVERALL - KEEP. 15 paired
runs: baseline 6.18%, Tsetlin-off 5.76%, Tsetlin+Displace-off 5.46%;
paired permutation p=0.57 and p=0.21; distributions completely overlap; a
non-surfer control showed no separation. Being below average does not
justify removal.
Also records the tie-break randomness fix, and quotes run counts with every
rate (6.95% over 13 runs vs 6.18% over 15 runs, same binary) rather than
presenting a single figure as definitive.
SirStone
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