MEASURED against the real DrussGT, one frozen binary built from clean HEAD, rack
knobs only (no source edits), 5 arms x 7 runs x 7 rounds, 8 concurrent battles,
judged ONLY on server-side real hit rate from the events sidecar, exact
two-sided permutation test on per-run rates.
arm runs shots hits real % dmg/run p vs full
full (shipped) 7 3898 270 6.93 159 --
onlyPattern 7 4582 494 10.78 287 0.0012 <- BETTER
onlyKNN 7 4033 207 5.13 119 0.1340
onlyLinear 7 3215 105 3.27 65 0.0082
onlyGF 7 3193 72 2.25 45 0.0012
Firing Pattern ALONE gives +3.85pp pooled hit rate and +80% damage per run, and
it fires MORE shots (4582 vs 3898) - it dominates on rate and volume. This is not
"any single gun wins" (full beats Linear, GF and KNN); it is specifically
"Pattern alone beats the rack".
WHY - the virtual fitness signal mis-ranks guns against real outcomes:
- HeadOn is massively over-selected: 31.4% of ticks, the most real shots (1070),
but only 4.5% REAL. It alone drags the rack down.
- Pattern has the best virtual rank and near-best real rate (11.9%, rank 2), yet
is selected only 22.6% of the time.
- Linear's apparent strength was SELECTION BIAS: conditional on being selected it
looked like 15.2% (n=33), but its UNCONDITIONAL rate (onlyLinear) is 3.27%.
Every earlier per-gun "real rate" in this repo is conditional on selection and
is therefore confounded. This experiment is the clean measurement.
NOT YET SETTLED (do not overclaim):
- ONE ADVERSARY. All of this is vs DrussGT. Pattern must be re-checked against
other bots before it becomes the default on this evidence alone.
- Whether a SMALL rack of good guns beats Pattern alone. The selector is negative
value on the CURRENT bloated rack; that does not prove it is negative value on
a rack of only good guns. That is the next experiment and it decides whether
the selection apparatus is fixed or disabled.
- The user's standing directive is to KEEP virtual-fitness selection. This
measurement conflicts with it, so the next step tests the selector on a small
good rack rather than assuming either answer.
Context - three prior selection-side attempts all failed: hysteresis (7.02% ->
5.10%, p=0.002), commitment (7.17% -> 4.44%, p=0.0012), arrival-accuracy
tie-break (7.08%, p=0.88 null). The per-tick random draw is load-bearing on
three independent measurements. This experiment locates the real problem one
level up: which guns are in the rack, and that the virtual signal ranks them
wrongly.
Preserves the reusable harness (tools/ab/which_gun_run_one.sh,
which_gun_arm_env.sh, which_gun_analyze.py) and the full writeup
(docs/selector_negative_value.md).
SirStone
e0666a562d