SirStone
32a5e72fac
4 arms x 7 runs vs real DrussGT. mix alternates the two guns 476 times/7 runs (liveness OK) but our bullets are no more varied (power sd / aim-offset sd flat) and DrussGT's dodge quality is unchanged (miss/tick mix-pat +0.03, p=0.66; MDE 3.8%). mix wins 24/49 = the 49% baseline; the user's 6/10 has P=0.353 at 49%. New tools/ab/ab_dodge_analyze.py splits the validated per-shot dodge instrument by arm and adds gun-switch/power/bearing liveness; fixtures committed.
86 lines
7.1 KiB
Plaintext
86 lines
7.1 KiB
Plaintext
====================================================================================================
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PER-ARM DRUSSTGT DODGE QUALITY (session commit f91e12196, 7 runs x 7 rounds)
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attribution cross-check: 199/199 deaths have the mapped victim at ~0 energy
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shipped baseline vs DrussGT is ~49%% round wins; this instrument is per SHOT (~thousands/arm), not per round.
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--- ARM `pat` --- 7 runs, 49 rounds, 5586 shots
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OUR shooting: power mean=0.810 sd=0.262 iqr=0.500 distinct=601 | aim-offset sd=14.16 deg iqr=22.55 | fire range mean=470 px
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power histogram (top): 1.00:3163 0.50:1470 0.10:116 0.65:28 0.68:27 0.55:27 0.60:25 0.71:24 0.97:23 0.51:22
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aim-offset histogram (deg bucket): -30:3 -25:319 -20:440 -15:558 -10:620 -5:657 +0:671 +5:605 +10:467 +15:462 +20:470 +25:312 +30:1 +45:1
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GUN SELECTION ([config] switch lines): Pattern:54 | switches=0 over 7/7 runs
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--- ARM `tmh` --- 7 runs, 49 rounds, 5417 shots
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OUR shooting: power mean=0.828 sd=0.253 iqr=0.500 distinct=594 | aim-offset sd=14.32 deg iqr=23.13 | fire range mean=480 px
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power histogram (top): 1.00:3161 0.50:1434 0.82:25 0.78:22 0.54:22 0.57:22 0.63:21 0.81:20 0.52:20 0.74:20
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aim-offset histogram (deg bucket): -35:2 -30:49 -25:291 -20:485 -15:517 -10:559 -5:625 +0:640 +5:561 +10:519 +15:442 +20:483 +25:215 +30:29
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GUN SELECTION ([config] switch lines): TMHorizon:54 | switches=0 over 7/7 runs
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--- ARM `bb` --- 7 runs, 49 rounds, 5483 shots
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OUR shooting: power mean=0.829 sd=0.248 iqr=0.500 distinct=647 | aim-offset sd=14.33 deg iqr=22.82 | fire range mean=473 px
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power histogram (top): 1.00:3212 0.50:1416 0.90:25 0.62:24 0.71:23 0.86:22 0.56:22 0.52:22 2.00:22 0.60:22
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aim-offset histogram (deg bucket): -60:1 -45:1 -35:3 -30:6 -25:345 -20:443 -15:529 -10:607 -5:610 +0:662 +5:577 +10:486 +15:442 +20:482 +25:282 +30:5 +40:1 +50:1
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GUN SELECTION ([config] switch lines): BitBrain:55 | switches=0 over 7/7 runs
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--- ARM `mix` --- 7 runs, 49 rounds, 5518 shots
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OUR shooting: power mean=0.811 sd=0.264 iqr=0.500 distinct=651 | aim-offset sd=14.30 deg iqr=23.20 | fire range mean=469 px
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power histogram (top): 1.00:3074 0.50:1486 0.10:61 0.59:26 0.73:24 0.52:24 0.70:23 0.77:23 0.72:22 0.57:22
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aim-offset histogram (deg bucket): -30:38 -25:255 -20:478 -15:524 -10:594 -5:609 +0:642 +5:581 +10:521 +15:478 +20:521 +25:248 +30:29
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GUN SELECTION ([config] switch lines): TMHorizon:275 BitBrain:258 | switches=476 over 7/7 runs
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====================================================================================================
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DRUSSGT DODGE QUALITY PER ARM (mean, 95%% CI = run-cluster bootstrap)
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arm shots | miss miss/tick [95%CI] | lat12 lat12 [95%CI] | lat_ctrl lat_ctrl [95%CI] | hit%
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------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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pat 5586 | 117.0 4.64[ 4.56, 4.72] | 53.9 [ 52.5, 55.1] | 51.4 [ 50.4, 52.3] | 0.107
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tmh 5417 | 121.6 4.74[ 4.68, 4.80] | 54.6 [ 53.4, 55.5] | 52.7 [ 52.1, 53.3] | 0.099
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bb 5483 | 118.6 4.66[ 4.59, 4.72] | 54.0 [ 53.4, 54.7] | 52.1 [ 51.3, 52.8] | 0.099
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mix 5518 | 117.9 4.67[ 4.58, 4.76] | 54.4 [ 53.8, 55.0] | 52.6 [ 52.1, 53.1] | 0.101
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====================================================================================================
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MINIMUM DETECTABLE EFFECT (run-cluster level, n=7/arm, alpha=0.05 two-sided, 80% power; MDE = 2.8016*sd_perrun*sqrt(2/n))
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the shot counts are large but the RUNS are what set the between-arm uncertainty, so this is the honest floor
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metric sd(per-run) MDE(abs) MDE vs ref mean
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miss 2.437 3.650 3.1% of 117.029
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miss/tick 0.118 0.176 3.8% of 4.642
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lat12 1.824 2.732 5.1% of 53.898
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lat_ctrl 1.372 2.055 4.0% of 51.361
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hit% 0.006 0.008 0.1% of 10.705
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====================================================================================================
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BETWEEN-ARM CONTRASTS (exact run-cluster permutation, C(14,7)=3432)
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pooled = pooled-shot difference A-B; strat = range-stratified (bands 200-300,300-450,450+, n-weighted)
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a mix that poisons DrussGT should show miss/tick, lat12 and lat_ctrl LOWER (worse dodging) than the best single gun
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metric A vs B pooled perm p | strat perm p
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-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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miss mix - tmh -3.691 0.0789 | -2.108 0.1809 [exact]
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miss_per_tick mix - tmh -0.065 0.2805 | -0.080 0.1815 [exact]
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lat_fixed_abs mix - tmh -0.190 0.7862 | -0.054 0.9289 [exact]
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lat_ctrl_abs mix - tmh -0.101 0.7984 | -0.070 0.8584 [exact]
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hit mix - tmh +0.001 0.7040 | +0.000 0.9441 [exact]
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miss mix - bb -0.683 0.7408 | +0.048 0.9790 [exact]
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miss_per_tick mix - bb +0.014 0.8048 | +0.003 0.9522 [exact]
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lat_fixed_abs mix - bb +0.368 0.4838 | +0.443 0.3865 [exact]
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lat_ctrl_abs mix - bb +0.537 0.2799 | +0.546 0.2869 [exact]
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hit mix - bb +0.001 0.7291 | +0.001 0.7932 [exact]
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miss tmh - pat +4.584 0.0114 | +3.625 0.0189 [exact]
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miss_per_tick tmh - pat +0.095 0.1081 | +0.105 0.0673 [exact]
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lat_fixed_abs tmh - pat +0.686 0.4699 | +0.631 0.4926 [exact]
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lat_ctrl_abs tmh - pat +1.340 0.0498 | +1.356 0.0457 [exact]
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hit tmh - pat -0.008 0.0160 | -0.006 0.0685 [exact]
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miss bb - pat +1.575 0.3632 | +1.375 0.3283 [exact]
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miss_per_tick bb - pat +0.016 0.7850 | +0.019 0.7373 [exact]
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lat_fixed_abs bb - pat +0.127 0.8858 | +0.121 0.8905 [exact]
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lat_ctrl_abs bb - pat +0.702 0.3067 | +0.738 0.2893 [exact]
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hit bb - pat -0.008 0.0277 | -0.008 0.0283 [exact]
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miss mix - pat +0.893 0.6242 | +1.340 0.3318 [exact]
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miss_per_tick mix - pat +0.030 0.6644 | +0.020 0.7489 [exact]
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lat_fixed_abs mix - pat +0.495 0.5817 | +0.562 0.5322 [exact]
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lat_ctrl_abs mix - pat +1.239 0.0562 | +1.274 0.0481 [exact]
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hit mix - pat -0.006 0.1296 | -0.007 0.1151 [exact]
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JSON written to /tmp/ab/mix_dodge.json
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