SirStone
140fe2519a
2 arms x 15 runs x 7 rounds, one frozen binary from HEAD a82c864, real DrussGT,
server-side events sidecar. Shipped rack is onlyPattern, so control=Pattern-only
and headon=HeadOn-only (TR_RACK_PATTERN=off TR_RACK_HEADON=both).
arm dmg/run dmgtk/run round wins shots/run
control 279 211 48/105 785
headon 14 228 0/105 580
Round wins and dmg/run both separate at p<0.0001 (MC permutation, se 0.0000),
~7x the damage MDE (35.8). Per range band (pooled, 15 runs):
300-450: Pattern 12.3% (4590 shots) vs HeadOn 0.6% (3701) p<0.0001, MDE 2.0pp
450+ : Pattern 9.2% (6671) vs HeadOn 0.4% (4177) p<0.0001, MDE 1.1pp
HeadOn loses EVERY long-range band by 20-23x, so the whole-battle loss is not a
close-range artefact.
The offline ruler (prediction_quality_results.txt) predicted the opposite: HeadOn
meanAbs 14.61 vs Pattern 17.53 at 300-450 and 12.33 vs 16.19 at 450+, hitProxy
.105/.104 and .098/.077 (+27%). That is an open-loop replay of a FIXED enemy
track, so it cannot see that a different bullet makes the surfer dodge
differently; live, the static gun does not lead at all.
TR_PATTERN_RAD_SCALE arms were skipped: applyRadial scales aim DISTANCE along an
unchanged bearing, so it cannot express 'less lead' (bearing is what firing uses).
HeadOn confirmed to ignore bulletSpeed (head_on.nim:9), liveness OK 15/15.
Adds the range-band analyzer tools/ab/ab_range_bands.py (reuses the lead-capture
Run alignment) and the captured fixtures. Does not touch bitbrain_gun.nim /
bitbrain_campaign.md (job-100).
46 lines
3.0 KiB
Plaintext
46 lines
3.0 KiB
Plaintext
# session /tmp/ab_headon
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# commit=a82c864c6075d8325589681bae23b371e3c4f1b5 binary_sha256=9d20f530d633982b30735d5ece38da09b707737ae1c57238ee41abe928276601 rounds=7 runs=15 conc=8 ts=2026-09-24T23:45:01+02:00
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ARM SUMMARY
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arm runs dmg/run dmgtk/run wins win% shots/run hitstk/run
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------
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control 15 279 211 48/105 45.7 785 92.9
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headon 15 14 228 0/105 0.0 580 72.1
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PER-RUN (never just the mean)
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control dmg: r1=263 r2=307 r3=294 r4=221 r5=290 r6=235 r7=327 r8=262 r9=330 r10=312 r11=274 r12=292 r13=288 r14=281 r15=217
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wins: r1=2/7 r2=3/7 r3=4/7 r4=2/7 r5=4/7 r6=3/7 r7=3/7 r8=2/7 r9=6/7 r10=5/7 r11=2/7 r12=4/7 r13=2/7 r14=4/7 r15=2/7
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headon dmg: r1=4 r2=8 r3=4 r4=17 r5=14 r6=10 r7=28 r8=18 r9=0 r10=36 r11=17 r12=8 r13=14 r14=14 r15=15
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wins: r1=0/7 r2=0/7 r3=0/7 r4=0/7 r5=0/7 r6=0/7 r7=0/7 r8=0/7 r9=0/7 r10=0/7 r11=0/7 r12=0/7 r13=0/7 r14=0/7 r15=0/7
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PAIRWISE PERMUTATION TEST (per-run values) + MANN-WHITNEY CROSS-CHECK
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permutation: exact when C(n,na) <= 20,000,000; otherwise Monte-Carlo 1,000,000 draws, seed=0x5eed5eed, p = (cnt+1)/(B+1), se = sqrt(p(1-p)/(B+1))
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metric A B diff(A-B) perm p method MC se MW p MW U
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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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dmg/run control headon +265.670 0.0000 MC/B=1,000,000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0
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round wins control headon +3.200 0.0000 MC/B=1,000,000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0
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MINIMUM DETECTABLE EFFECT (two-sample, alpha=0.05 two-sided, 80% power; MDE = 2.8016*sd*sqrt(2/n))
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metric n/arm sd(control) MDE(abs) MDE vs control mean
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----------------------------------------------------------------
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dmg/run 15 34.956 35.760 12.8% of 279.5
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round wins 15 1.265 1.294 40.4% of 3.2
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ROUND-LEVEL TEST (pooled rounds, Fisher exact) vs `control` — ANTI-CONSERVATIVE: rounds cluster within runs
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arm ref wins arm wins p
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----------------------------------------------
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headon 48/105 0/105 0.0000
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LIVENESS (arm env applied in the bot's own boot report)
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control OK (15/15 runs: no arm env; report present)
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headon OK (15/15 runs: TR_RACK_PATTERN=off TR_RACK_HEADON=both applied)
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[bb] APPLIED-SHIFT CHECK (from bot stdout; needs TR_BITBRAIN_LOG=1). A provably-zero placebo emits ZERO [bb] lines.
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arm runs w/log lines min max zeros
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control 0/15 0 - - -
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headon 0/15 0 - - -
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ROUND-WIN ATTRIBUTION (events primary; score tie-break for mutual-kill / timeout rounds)
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control wins==firstPlaces 15/15 runs OK; single-death rounds agree with score 102/102 (3 tie-broken)
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headon wins==firstPlaces 15/15 runs OK; single-death rounds agree with score 105/105 (0 tie-broken)
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