84 lines
2.9 KiB
Plaintext
84 lines
2.9 KiB
Plaintext
# Outcome-label Gate A — offline sanity check (VETO ONLY)
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corpus : /tmp/tfil_ab2/out
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battles : 70
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shots : 54923
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base hit : 9.97%
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state : vlat, dist, room, turn (the module's 4 fields, canonical edges)
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label : outcome hit(state,g) = hit and |g - b_our| <= w (w = body width as an angle)
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## A. is the danger map the mover MINIMISES aligned with the realised per-bin hit rate?
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corr( danger(g) , P(hit | b_our = g) ) over the 31 bins:
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| danger map | corr |
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|---|---:|
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| histogram label (j128) — P(arrival bin = g) | -0.341 |
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| **outcome label (j130, the module's live label)** | **+0.566** |
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| geometric bullet-line label (needs bullet bodies) | -0.230 |
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Negative = minimising the danger steers INTO the bullets (the j128 defect). The histogram reproduces the ledger's -0.342.
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| bin | P(hit) | P(arrival=bin) | outcome danger |
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|---:|---:|---:|---:|
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| 0 | 9.7% | 2.4% | 0.005 |
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| 1 | 14.1% | 1.9% | 0.008 |
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| 2 | 13.2% | 2.6% | 0.008 |
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| 3 | 10.8% | 2.3% | 0.008 |
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| 4 | 8.8% | 2.5% | 0.007 |
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| 5 | 7.8% | 2.9% | 0.007 |
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| 6 | 7.9% | 3.3% | 0.008 |
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| 7 | 8.8% | 3.5% | 0.009 |
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| 8 | 9.2% | 3.6% | 0.009 |
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| 9 | 9.1% | 3.8% | 0.010 |
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| 10 | 9.8% | 3.9% | 0.011 |
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| 11 | 11.0% | 4.0% | 0.011 |
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| 12 | 10.6% | 3.9% | 0.012 |
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| 13 | 11.1% | 4.1% | 0.011 |
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| 14 | 9.0% | 4.0% | 0.011 |
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| 15 | 9.8% | 4.6% | 0.011 |
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| 16 | 9.8% | 3.8% | 0.010 |
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| 17 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 0.010 |
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| 18 | 10.7% | 3.6% | 0.009 |
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| 19 | 8.8% | 3.5% | 0.008 |
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| 20 | 8.5% | 3.4% | 0.008 |
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| 21 | 7.9% | 3.5% | 0.007 |
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| 22 | 7.5% | 3.3% | 0.007 |
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| 23 | 6.7% | 3.1% | 0.007 |
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| 24 | 8.3% | 2.8% | 0.006 |
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| 25 | 7.2% | 2.6% | 0.007 |
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| 26 | 11.5% | 2.3% | 0.007 |
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| 27 | 13.1% | 2.2% | 0.010 |
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| 28 | 17.5% | 2.6% | 0.012 |
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| 29 | 16.2% | 2.8% | 0.012 |
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| 30 | 10.9% | 3.3% | 0.008 |
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## B. state-conditional information under the OUTCOME label
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held-out per-candidate log-loss (bits) of the outcome label, state-conditional vs state-free (same rows, same split):
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| model | log-loss (bits) |
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|---|---:|
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| state-free P(hit | g) | 0.1873 |
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| state-conditional P(hit | state, g) | 0.3906 |
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| Δ (state − state-free) | +0.2033 |
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state conditioning is better in 0/3 splits (negative Δ = better).
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## C. open-loop decision counterfactual (VETO ONLY)
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If the mover picks argmin_g danger, the fraction of held-out waves whose bullet line would still pass within a body width of g (ground truth = the recorded bullet line b_bullet).
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| policy | held-out waves still hit |
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|---|---:|
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| histogram argmin (j128) | 3.53% |
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| outcome argmin (j130) | 3.33% |
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| recorded trajectory (floor/ceiling) | 10.17% |
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The counterfactual is OPEN LOOP: the recorded bullet lines were fired at a different mover, so it cannot predict the live closed loop. It is a veto, not a selection.
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## MEASURED vs INFERRED
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* MEASURED: every number above, on the recorded corpus.
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* INFERRED: that the offline alignment transfers live. It cannot — see docs/offline_harness_trust.md.
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