SirStone
48f38b80e7
Runs the pre-registered A/B for the two movement changes in HEAD: the time-indexed bullet heat (TR_TFIL_HEAT_TIME,fca8993) and the removal of the invented virtual centre pillar (d0750ab). One frozen binary from HEAD vs real DrussGT: 6 arms x 10 runs x 7 rounds = 60 battles, 420 rounds, 0 failed. Judged on damage/run and ROUND WINS only (hit rate and hits-taken are context): hit rate would have inverted the verdict again - tau3 has the best pooled hit rate of all arms (11.56%) and the fewest round wins (20/70). RESULT (vs the reconstructed pre-change mover "old"): heat-time HURTS. tau3/tau5/tau9 lose 1.3-1.7 wins/run (p=0.0010-0.0125) and deal 22-38 less damage/run (p=0.004-0.047); tau15 is a wash on wins (p=0.64) and 22 damage/run lower (p=0.046). Nothing improves either metric. pillar removal does nothing measurable. old vs pillaoff: +5.7 damage/run (p=0.71), +0.5 wins/run (35 vs 30, p=0.43), 30.8 MORE damage taken/run without the pillar (p=0.040). The mechanism check proves the knob works (centre-box occupancy 0.09% -> 2.37%, p<0.0001; range 469 -> 443 px, p=0.0002), so this is a real behaviour change that buys nothing. At n=10 the pillar contrast is inside the MDE (33 damage/run, 1.2 wins/run), so this is not a proven regression. Flags that the shipped default (pillar removed) should be reverted to the TR_TFIL_PILLAR_ON behaviour; heat-time stays off. Adds tools/ab/arms_heat_pillar.txt and tools/ab/ab_mechanism.py (per-tick mechanism check: central-box occupancy, range distribution, live enemy-bullet proximity) plus the captured summary/report fixtures.
91 lines
5.7 KiB
Plaintext
91 lines
5.7 KiB
Plaintext
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HIT RATE BY RANGE BAND (our shots; band = shooter->target distance px at the fire tick)
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session: /tmp/ab/heatshift arms: old, pillaoff, tau15, tau3, tau5, tau9 reference: old
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====================================================================================================
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band old pillaoff tau15 tau3 tau5 tau9
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----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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0-100 2 1 50.0% 3 2 66.7% 2 2 100.0% 6 5 83.3% 6 3 50.0% 8 3 37.5%
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100-200 21 3 14.3% 38 11 28.9% 16 3 18.8% 22 8 36.4% 31 14 45.2% 24 5 20.8%
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200-300 134 30 22.4% 214 37 17.3% 103 20 19.4% 196 42 21.4% 216 39 18.1% 122 24 19.7%
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300-450 3016 342 11.3% 3663 414 11.3% 1768 204 11.5% 3134 367 11.7% 2851 343 12.0% 1939 260 13.4%
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450+ 4468 436 9.8% 3196 312 9.8% 6045 539 8.9% 3122 314 10.1% 3619 319 8.8% 5220 469 9.0%
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ALL 7641 812 10.6% 7114 776 10.9% 7934 768 9.7% 6480 736 11.4% 6723 718 10.7% 7313 761 10.4%
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PER-RUN BAND RATES (shows the spread behind the pooled numbers)
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band 0-100
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old n= 2 0 100
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pillaoff n= 3 100 0 100
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tau15 n= 2 100 100
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tau3 n= 5 100 100 100 100 50
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tau5 n= 5 100 100 50 0 0
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tau9 n= 5 0 0 50 100 33
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band 100-200
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old n= 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 100 0
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pillaoff n=10 0 0 50 0 50 43 56 0 25 0
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tau15 n= 8 0 0 33 50 0 0 0 0
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tau3 n= 8 33 0 0 40 33 67 0 0
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tau5 n=10 38 100 50 50 0 33 0 0 60 100
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tau9 n= 8 25 60 0 0 0 0 0 25
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band 200-300
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old n=10 15 14 17 26 0 25 60 18 40 30
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pillaoff n=10 29 10 14 16 19 24 18 25 10 19
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tau15 n=10 50 11 25 12 17 33 17 33 7 0
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tau3 n=10 17 17 12 0 39 21 22 27 20 17
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tau5 n=10 21 29 6 21 19 26 24 29 9 6
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tau9 n=10 33 23 25 12 8 14 33 40 17 13
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band 300-450
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old n=10 11 12 13 9 12 10 9 14 11 12
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pillaoff n=10 9 11 11 12 13 10 12 11 13 12
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tau15 n=10 13 11 9 11 8 14 13 9 15 13
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tau3 n=10 11 11 13 11 12 11 9 13 13 11
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tau5 n=10 14 11 11 12 10 14 12 11 14 12
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tau9 n=10 14 13 12 14 15 11 14 14 14 12
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band 450+
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old n=10 10 10 10 9 9 12 11 9 9 9
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pillaoff n=10 8 13 13 7 10 10 11 8 9 10
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tau15 n=10 8 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 9 9
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tau3 n=10 8 11 11 7 9 12 11 11 12 10
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tau5 n=10 10 8 9 10 10 7 9 9 8 8
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tau9 n=10 9 8 10 9 8 10 10 9 8 9
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band ALL
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old n=10 11 11 11 9 10 11 11 11 11 10
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pillaoff n=10 9 12 12 10 12 11 13 10 11 12
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tau15 n=10 9 10 10 9 9 10 11 8 11 10
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tau3 n=10 10 11 12 9 12 12 11 13 13 11
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tau5 n=10 12 10 10 11 10 11 11 10 11 10
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tau9 n=10 10 11 11 10 9 11 11 10 10 10
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PER-BAND PERMUTATION TEST vs `old` (per-run rates, two-sided)
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band arm d(pp) p method MCse MDE(pp)
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------------------------------------------------------------------
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0-100 pillaoff +16.67 1.0000 exact 0.0000 198.10
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0-100 tau15 +50.00 1.0000 exact 0.0000 198.10
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0-100 tau3 +40.00 0.2857 exact 0.0000 198.10
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0-100 tau5 +0.00 1.0000 exact 0.0000 198.10
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0-100 tau9 -13.33 0.9524 exact 0.0000 198.10
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100-200 pillaoff +9.01 0.5427 exact 0.0000 43.80
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100-200 tau15 -2.92 0.8765 exact 0.0000 43.80
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100-200 tau3 +8.33 0.6226 exact 0.0000 43.80
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100-200 tau5 +29.75 0.0880 exact 0.0000 43.80
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100-200 tau9 +0.42 1.0000 exact 0.0000 43.80
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200-300 pillaoff -6.15 0.3045 exact 0.0000 20.62
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200-300 tau15 -3.96 0.5841 exact 0.0000 20.62
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200-300 tau3 -5.29 0.4112 exact 0.0000 20.62
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200-300 tau5 -5.54 0.3777 exact 0.0000 20.62
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200-300 tau9 -2.57 0.6937 exact 0.0000 20.62
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300-450 pillaoff -0.14 0.8270 exact 0.0000 2.03
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300-450 tau15 -0.04 0.9677 exact 0.0000 2.03
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300-450 tau3 +0.11 0.8729 exact 0.0000 2.03
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300-450 tau5 +0.54 0.4566 exact 0.0000 2.03
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300-450 tau9 +1.98 0.0069 exact 0.0000 2.03
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450+ pillaoff +0.04 0.9606 exact 0.0000 1.21
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450+ tau15 -0.87 0.0454 exact 0.0000 1.21
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450+ tau3 +0.36 0.5427 exact 0.0000 1.21
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450+ tau5 -1.05 0.0290 exact 0.0000 1.21
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450+ tau9 -0.88 0.0456 exact 0.0000 1.21
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ALL pillaoff +0.32 0.4681 exact 0.0000 0.76
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ALL tau15 -0.95 0.0066 exact 0.0000 0.76
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ALL tau3 +0.71 0.1325 exact 0.0000 0.76
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ALL tau5 +0.06 0.8627 exact 0.0000 0.76
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ALL tau9 -0.25 0.3258 exact 0.0000 0.76
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