The user's first-hand diagnosis: "once the pattern is learnt enough we hit DrussGT,
but as soon as it adapts we are not fast enough to re-adapt again." The gun kept
EVERY sample for the whole battle (which the user explicitly asked for), so stale
evidence weighed the same as new evidence - accumulation without forgetting.
TASK 1 - THE CURVE, MEASURED FIRST (prequential side accuracy, 15 rounds x 4
horizons, deciles of the eval stream):
arm early% late% decay
frozen (early only) 64.9 61.4 -3.5
accum (shipped) 76.4 75.3 -1.1
window N=150 84.7 84.6 -0.0
resetdrop 5pp 83.2 84.3 +1.0
**The decay IS real but modest and LOCALIZED IN THE LAST ~30% of the round**
(last-third vs middle-third: frozen -7.7pp, accum -3.7, window -1.3, resetdrop -1.3).
TASK 3 - WHICH FIX HELPS (late-half accuracy, shuffled control in parens):
accum (shipped) 75.3
**window N=150 84.6 (51)** +9.3pp
**resetdrop 5pp 84.3 (51)** +9.0pp
rehearse-all (retrain, NO forgetting) 79.5
- **Sliding window: +9.3pp late (within-round), +9.7 (cross-round), +10.3 (shield).**
The shuffled control stays ~50-51%, so it learns the ENEMY, not noise.
- **Forgetting is the essential ingredient**: the same periodic retrain WITHOUT
forgetting reaches only ~79.5%, so roughly half the gain is the retraining
mechanics and half is the forgetting.
- Change detection ties the window on late accuracy and gives the best decay, but
at a 5pp threshold it fired 300-500 times in the offline stream - noisy.
- INERTIA IS REDUNDANT WITH THE WINDOW: lower inertia helps the keep-everything
model a lot (accum late 75.3 -> 83.3 at N=8) but leaves the window FLAT
(84.6-84.7 at every N). Low inertia and forgetting are SUBSTITUTES, and
forgetting is the robust one - `TR_TMHORIZON_NSTATES=8` is NOT the primary fix.
VERDICT: SHIPPING CANDIDATE = `TR_TMHORIZON_WINDOW=150`, kept at default 0 until a
live A/B confirms.
HONEST CAVEATS THAT SET EXPECTATIONS:
- The fixtures are OPEN-LOOP (DrussGT does not react to our bullets), so a true
mid-round adaptation is NOT present; the dominant measured effect is the LEVEL
gap, not the decay magnitude. The user's "it adapts" magnitude is still INFERRED.
- The harness uses a STRAIGHT-LINE base while the live gun uses Pattern's
prediction, and it ignores the h-tick label delay, so its absolute side accuracy
(75-85%) is INFLATED: the same gun measured ~52% = chance live against DrussGT.
So +9.3pp is a real ARM DELTA, not a promise that the gun now clears the ~80%
accuracy wall that hits need. A live A/B must decide.
Adds `measure_tm_readapt.nim` (prequential harness with the mandatory shuffled
control, within-round + cross-round protocols, inertia sweep) and its captured
results. test_tm_horizon 79 -> 104 (five new groups). test_tm_diag 48,
test_tm_automata_diag 55, test_tm_clause_shape 66, test_rack_membership 48 pass.
ModularBot compiles.
.gitignore: switched from a broad `measure_*` pattern to EXPLICIT binary names.
The broad rule was too blunt - it also excluded the `.txt` results file, which made
`git add` refuse the whole commit twice. Sources stay tracked; binaries do not.
SirStone
69debbe347