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SirRoboGarage/docs
SirStone 99f9532f55 Melee vs 1v1 racks: mechanism built, but NO gun-level payoff - do not split
The user's plan was separate melee and 1v1 racks. The mechanism is built and
committed (TR_RACK_<GUN>=both|1v1|melee|off, mode from server truth). This job
produced the missing evidence: each candidate gun forced ALONE in BOTH modes,
one frozen binary, env-only arms, exact two-sided permutation tests.

1v1 vs the real DrussGT (6 arms x 5 runs x 7 rounds):
  Pattern      10.80%  292 dmg/run   11/35 round wins
  KNN           5.58%  128            1/35
  Linear        2.99%   59            0/35
  Circular      2.89%   60            0/35
  WallBounce    2.72%   57            0/35
  GuessFactor   2.14%   38            0/35
  -> every arm differs from Pattern at p=0.0079 (the 5v5 floor). Per-gun damage
     span 7.7x. In 1v1 the gun matters ENORMOUSLY.

Melee (+DrussGT, RandomMover, WaveSurfer, OscillatorBot; enemyCount 4):
  WallBounce   25.79%  643 dmg/run    7/25
  Linear       24.88%  624            7/25
  GuessFactor  24.48%  613            4/25
  Pattern      24.39%  599            5/25
  Circular     25.88%  596            5/25
  KNN          23.87%  539            3/25
  -> NO arm beats Pattern with significance (p=0.42-0.96, fully overlapping).
     WallBounce's nominal +7.3% is p=0.42. Per-gun damage span only 1.19x.

THE FINDING: in 1v1 the gun matters enormously (7.7x spread); in melee it barely
matters (1.19x). Melee is won by movement, survival and placement, not by which
gun you carry - every candidate lands in the same ~24-26% band. So a separate
melee rack has NO gun-level payoff and DefaultRackMembership stays Pattern-only.
The mechanism remains available if it is ever wanted.

Honest caveats: the melee comparison is UNDER-POWERED at 5 runs (detecting the
~44-damage WallBounce-Pattern gap would need ~2.5-3x the runs), so "no significant
difference" is NOT "no difference"; the only candidate worth re-testing is
WallBounce in melee, and it must not be shipped on this evidence.

SHIM LIMITATION FOUND, worth recording: run_bridge_battle.sh captures with
`--subject DrussGT`, and the shim DROPS every tick once the subject dies - losing
5-20% of ModularBot's shots in melee. The campaign was re-run with
`--subject ModularBot` so ModularBot's events are complete (fires match gun_stats
realShots exactly). Any future melee evidence through this shim must do the same
or it will silently under-count.

Adds docs/melee_vs_1v1_racks.md. No repository source changed.
2026-09-22 08:08:43 +02:00
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