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SirRoboGarage/tools/ab/which_gun_arm_env.sh
T
SirStone a54ae6a162 SETTLED: no small rack beats Pattern alone; the selector is negative value on a GOOD rack
Follow-up to e0666a5, which showed Pattern alone (10.78%) beats the full rack
(6.93%). That left two open questions: is a SMALL rack of good guns better than
Pattern alone, and does the selector add value on a good rack (rather than only
on the bloated one)? Both are now answered: NO and NO.

6 arms x 7 runs x 7 rounds, one frozen binary from CLEAN HEAD e0666a5 (built via
`git archive`, source verified byte-identical to the clean tree), rack knobs
only, 8 concurrent battles, real server-side hit rate vs the real DrussGT, exact
two-sided permutation test on per-run rates.

  arm          guns (selector active?)                    real %  dmg/run  p vs onlyPattern
  onlyPattern  Pattern, NO selection                       10.36    264     --
  lean8        HeadOn,Linear,Circular,Accel,Pattern,GF,KNN,WallBounce  6.31  146  0.0169
  lean6        lean8 - HeadOn                               8.83    212     0.0262
  pairPC       Pattern + Circular                           8.23    185     0.0460
  pairPK       Pattern + KNN                                9.80    264     0.3998
  pairPL       Pattern + Linear                             8.23    200     0.0035

The control replicates the prior run (10.36% vs 10.78% before; same binary tree,
different build path).

THE MECHANISM, from the per-arm selected-gun mix - the virtual signal keeps
ranking the WRONG guns first, even on a two-gun rack:
  lean8: HeadOn 46.2% of ticks at 2.0% REAL; Pattern only 14.4% (12.6% real)
  lean6: Pattern 29.2% (10.4% real) vs KNN 25.3% (8.1%) and Linear 15.2% (8.0%)
  pairPC: Circular 66.8% (6.9% real) vs Pattern 33.2% (11.2% real) - over-picks Circular
  pairPL: Linear 57.7% (6.0% real) vs Pattern 42.3% (11.1% real) - over-picks Linear
  pairPK: Pattern 86.4% - ties ONLY because the selector happens to pick Pattern
          most of the time; it is numerically lower with identical dmg/run
So the failure is NOT rack size. Pruning does not fix it; the ranking is wrong.

VERDICT: ship `onlyPattern` - Pattern alone with selection bypassed - at 10.36%
real and 264 dmg/run, vs lean8 6.31%/146 and the prior full rack 6.93%/159.
This DIRECTLY CONTRADICTS the standing user directive to keep virtual-fitness
selection, so it is recorded here plainly rather than quietly acted on: disable
the selector (`TR_RACK_<every gun but PATTERN>=off`) pending a better fitness
signal. The mechanism itself is left intact and functional so it can be re-enabled
with one env var, and so it can be fixed rather than discarded.

REMAINING CAVEAT: ONE ADVERSARY. All of this is vs DrussGT. Pattern as the default
must be re-checked against other bots first - that is the next job.

Extends the reusable harness (tools/ab/which_gun_arm_env.sh now has lean8/lean6/
pairPC/pairPK/pairPL; which_gun_analyze.py is parameterised by WHICHGUN_OUT and
compares against both `full` and `onlyPattern`).
2026-09-22 01:35:51 +02:00

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# emits `TR_RACK_<GUN>=off ...` for every gun NOT in the arm.
# usage: arm_env.sh <full|onlyLinear|onlyPattern|onlyGF|onlyKNN|lean8|lean6|pairPC|pairPK|pairPL>
arm="$1"
GUNS="HEADON LINEAR TSETLIN CIRCULAR GUESSFACTOR PATTERN WALLBOUNCE ACCEL STOPSHOT DISPLACE AVGLEAD DECAYGF KNN TMSELECT"
case "$arm" in
full) keep="";;
onlyLinear) keep="LINEAR";;
onlyPattern) keep="PATTERN";;
onlyGF) keep="GUESSFACTOR";;
onlyKNN) keep="KNN";;
# ── small-good-rack follow-up ──────────────────────────────────────────────
lean8) keep="HEADON LINEAR CIRCULAR ACCEL PATTERN GUESSFACTOR KNN WALLBOUNCE";;
lean6) keep="LINEAR CIRCULAR ACCEL PATTERN GUESSFACTOR KNN";;
pairPC) keep="PATTERN CIRCULAR";;
pairPK) keep="PATTERN KNN";;
pairPL) keep="PATTERN LINEAR";;
*) echo "unknown arm $arm" >&2; exit 1;;
esac
out=""
for g in $GUNS; do
case " $keep " in
*" $g "*) continue;;
esac
out="$out TR_RACK_${g}=off"
done
echo "$out"