SirStone
140fe2519a
2 arms x 15 runs x 7 rounds, one frozen binary from HEAD a82c864, real DrussGT,
server-side events sidecar. Shipped rack is onlyPattern, so control=Pattern-only
and headon=HeadOn-only (TR_RACK_PATTERN=off TR_RACK_HEADON=both).
arm dmg/run dmgtk/run round wins shots/run
control 279 211 48/105 785
headon 14 228 0/105 580
Round wins and dmg/run both separate at p<0.0001 (MC permutation, se 0.0000),
~7x the damage MDE (35.8). Per range band (pooled, 15 runs):
300-450: Pattern 12.3% (4590 shots) vs HeadOn 0.6% (3701) p<0.0001, MDE 2.0pp
450+ : Pattern 9.2% (6671) vs HeadOn 0.4% (4177) p<0.0001, MDE 1.1pp
HeadOn loses EVERY long-range band by 20-23x, so the whole-battle loss is not a
close-range artefact.
The offline ruler (prediction_quality_results.txt) predicted the opposite: HeadOn
meanAbs 14.61 vs Pattern 17.53 at 300-450 and 12.33 vs 16.19 at 450+, hitProxy
.105/.104 and .098/.077 (+27%). That is an open-loop replay of a FIXED enemy
track, so it cannot see that a different bullet makes the surfer dodge
differently; live, the static gun does not lead at all.
TR_PATTERN_RAD_SCALE arms were skipped: applyRadial scales aim DISTANCE along an
unchanged bearing, so it cannot express 'less lead' (bearing is what firing uses).
HeadOn confirmed to ignore bulletSpeed (head_on.nim:9), liveness OK 15/15.
Adds the range-band analyzer tools/ab/ab_range_bands.py (reuses the lead-capture
Run alignment) and the captured fixtures. Does not touch bitbrain_gun.nim /
bitbrain_campaign.md (job-100).
199 lines
2.9 KiB
JSON
199 lines
2.9 KiB
JSON
{
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"arms": {
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"control": {
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"bands_pooled": {
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"0-100": {
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"hits": 2,
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"shots": 3
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},
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"100-200": {
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"hits": 4,
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"shots": 28
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},
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"200-300": {
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"hits": 26,
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"shots": 211
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},
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"300-450": {
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"hits": 565,
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"shots": 4590
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},
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"450+": {
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"hits": 616,
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"shots": 6671
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},
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"ALL": {
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"hits": 1213,
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"shots": 11503
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}
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},
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"runs": {
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"run1.jsonl": {
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"hits": 81,
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"shots": 781
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},
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"run10.jsonl": {
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"hits": 90,
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"shots": 819
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},
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"run11.jsonl": {
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"hits": 78,
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"shots": 822
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},
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"run12.jsonl": {
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"hits": 80,
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"shots": 781
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},
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"run13.jsonl": {
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"hits": 85,
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"shots": 754
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},
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"run14.jsonl": {
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"hits": 78,
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"shots": 811
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},
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"run15.jsonl": {
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"hits": 62,
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"shots": 628
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},
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"run2.jsonl": {
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"hits": 92,
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"shots": 750
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},
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"run3.jsonl": {
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"hits": 90,
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"shots": 751
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},
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"run4.jsonl": {
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"hits": 67,
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"shots": 761
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},
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"run5.jsonl": {
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"hits": 88,
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"shots": 830
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},
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"run6.jsonl": {
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"hits": 72,
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"shots": 725
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},
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"run7.jsonl": {
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"hits": 86,
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"shots": 731
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},
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"run8.jsonl": {
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"hits": 77,
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"shots": 774
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},
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"run9.jsonl": {
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"hits": 87,
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"shots": 785
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}
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}
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},
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"headon": {
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"bands_pooled": {
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"0-100": {
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"hits": 0,
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"shots": 1
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},
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"100-200": {
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"hits": 8,
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"shots": 97
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},
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"200-300": {
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"hits": 12,
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"shots": 469
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},
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"300-450": {
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"hits": 21,
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"shots": 3701
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},
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"450+": {
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"hits": 15,
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"shots": 4177
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},
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"ALL": {
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"hits": 56,
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"shots": 8445
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}
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},
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"runs": {
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"run1.jsonl": {
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"hits": 2,
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"shots": 590
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},
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"run10.jsonl": {
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"hits": 6,
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"shots": 604
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},
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"run11.jsonl": {
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"hits": 5,
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"shots": 550
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},
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"run12.jsonl": {
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"hits": 2,
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"shots": 522
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},
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"run13.jsonl": {
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"hits": 4,
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"shots": 616
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},
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"run14.jsonl": {
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"hits": 3,
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"shots": 584
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},
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"run15.jsonl": {
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"hits": 4,
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"shots": 549
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},
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"run2.jsonl": {
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"hits": 3,
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"shots": 561
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},
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"run3.jsonl": {
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"hits": 1,
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"shots": 552
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},
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"run4.jsonl": {
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"hits": 6,
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"shots": 570
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},
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"run5.jsonl": {
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"hits": 4,
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"shots": 567
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},
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"run6.jsonl": {
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"hits": 3,
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"shots": 520
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},
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"run7.jsonl": {
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"hits": 8,
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"shots": 605
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},
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"run8.jsonl": {
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"hits": 5,
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"shots": 588
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},
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"run9.jsonl": {
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"hits": 0,
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"shots": 467
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}
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}
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}
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},
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"band_labels": [
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"0-100",
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"100-200",
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"200-300",
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"300-450",
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"450+"
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],
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"session": {
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"binary_sha256": "9d20f530d633982b30735d5ece38da09b707737ae1c57238ee41abe928276601",
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"commit": "a82c864c6075d8325589681bae23b371e3c4f1b5",
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"conc": 8,
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"rounds": 7,
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"runs": 15,
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"timestamp": "2026-09-24T23:45:01+02:00"
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}
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} |