movement Batch 1: pure strafe (range tilt OFF) beats the shipped tfil on round wins across a 15-opponent panel

225 battles, one frozen binary, five env-only arms, the frozen panel, 0 invalid
runs. Paired per opponent vs the shipped tfil:

  strafe_notilt  wins/run +0.38  [CI +0.16,+0.60]  9/9 opponents p=0.0039
                 dmg/run  -10.2  [CI -25.8,+5.5]   p=0.61, MDE 20.4 (not detectable)
                 incoming hit rate 12.24% vs 18.17%, dmg taken 150 vs 200
  strafe_325     wins/run +0.33  [CI +0.04,+0.63]  10/12 p=0.0386
  ring           dmg/run  +31.2  [CI +11.5,+50.9]  13/15 p=0.0074, wins/run -0.04 (ns)
                 but hit rate 29.4% at 236 px: a damage/survival trade, not a win
  ring_notemp    indistinguishable from tfil on both primaries

Round wins in this harness are survival wins (in 216/219 attributable runs the
win count equals the rounds the opponent died in), and the winner takes ~1/3
fewer hits while fighting ~74 px farther out. The shipped tfil is last of five
on wins: the DrussGT-only picture did not generalize.

Also: tournament_analyze.py now prints BOTH readings of the pre-registered
'while the other does not go down' clause (strict: nothing is better;
substantive: the two strafe arms and ring are better on one metric each).

tools/ab/tournament_analyze.py

@@ -586,9 +586,17 @@ def main():
     # ── the pre-registered verdict rules ────────────────────────────────────
     p("### The pre-registered verdict (rules fixed in `docs/movement_campaign.md`)")
     p()
-    p("BETTER = one primary metric (dmg/run, wins/run) up at sign-test p<0.05 "
-      "with the other not down; WORSE = the mirror image; otherwise NOT "
-      "DISTINGUISHABLE. Hit rate is never the verdict.")
+    p("PRIMARY metrics are dmg/run and wins/run; hit rate is never the verdict. "
+      "The pre-registered rule says an arm is BETTER when one primary metric is "
+      "UP at sign-test p<0.05 `while the other does not go down`. That phrase has "
+      "two readings and BOTH are printed:")
+    p()
+    p("* **strict** — the other metric's mean delta is not negative at all "
+      "(`Δ >= 0`). Nothing can be BETTER while it costs *any* mean damage.")
+    p("* **substantive** — the other metric's delta is not *detectably* down: "
+      "the sign test is not significant **and** the delta is smaller than that "
+      "metric's MDE (the pre-registered rule 3 says an effect under the MDE is "
+      "not detectable, so it cannot count as a loss).")
     p()
     ranked = []
     for a in arms:
@@ -597,31 +605,47 @@ def main():
         st = stats.get(a, {})
         d, w = st.get("d_damage"), st.get("d_wins")
         if d is None or w is None:
-            ranked.append((a, "n/a", float("nan"), float("nan")))
+            ranked.append((a, "n/a", "n/a", float("nan"), float("nan")))
             continue
         up_d = d["mean"] > 0 and d["p_sign"] < 0.05
         dn_d = d["mean"] < 0 and d["p_sign"] < 0.05
         up_w = w["mean"] > 0 and w["p_sign"] < 0.05
         dn_w = w["mean"] < 0 and w["p_sign"] < 0.05
-        if (up_d and w["mean"] >= 0) or (up_w and d["mean"] >= 0):
-            verdict = "BETTER than reference"
+
+        def not_down(o):
+            return o["mean"] >= 0
+
+        def not_down_subst(o):
+            return o["mean"] > -o["mde"] and o["p_sign"] >= 0.05
+
+        def not_up_subst(o):
+            return o["mean"] < o["mde"] and o["p_sign"] >= 0.05
+
+        if (up_d and not_down(w)) or (up_w and not_down(d)):
+            strict = "BETTER"
         elif (dn_d and w["mean"] <= 0) or (dn_w and d["mean"] <= 0):
-            verdict = "WORSE than reference"
+            strict = "WORSE"
         else:
-            verdict = "NOT DISTINGUISHABLE from reference"
-        ranked.append((a, verdict, w["mean"], d["mean"]))
-    ranked.sort(key=lambda t: (-(t[2] if t[2] == t[2] else -1e9),
-                               -(t[3] if t[3] == t[3] else -1e9)))
-    p("| rank | arm | Δwins/run | Δdmg/run | sign test dmg | sign test wins | verdict |")
-    p("|---:|---|---:|---:|---|---|---|")
-    for i, (a, verdict, w, d) in enumerate(ranked, 1):
+            strict = "not distinguishable"
+        if (up_d and not_down_subst(w)) or (up_w and not_down_subst(d)):
+            subst = "BETTER"
+        elif (dn_d and not_up_subst(w)) or (dn_w and not_up_subst(d)):
+            subst = "WORSE"
+        else:
+            subst = "not distinguishable"
+        ranked.append((a, strict, subst, w["mean"], d["mean"]))
+    ranked.sort(key=lambda t: (-(t[3] if t[3] == t[3] else -1e9),
+                               -(t[4] if t[4] == t[4] else -1e9)))
+    p("| rank | arm | Δwins/run | Δdmg/run | sign test wins | sign test dmg | verdict (strict) | verdict (substantive) |")
+    p("|---:|---|---:|---:|---|---|---|---|")
+    for i, (a, strict, subst, w, d) in enumerate(ranked, 1):
         st = stats.get(a, {})
         dd = st.get("d_damage", {})
         ww = st.get("d_wins", {})
         p(f"| {i} | `{a}` | {fmt_s(w, 2)} | {fmt_s(d)} "
-          f"| {dd.get('k', 'n/a')}/{dd.get('nz', 'n/a')} p={dd.get('p_sign', float('nan')):.4g} "
           f"| {ww.get('k', 'n/a')}/{ww.get('nz', 'n/a')} p={ww.get('p_sign', float('nan')):.4g} "
-          f"| **{verdict}** |")
+          f"| {dd.get('k', 'n/a')}/{dd.get('nz', 'n/a')} p={dd.get('p_sign', float('nan')):.4g} "
+          f"| **{strict}** | **{subst}** |")
     p()
     p(f"Reference `{ref}`: {fmt(pooled.get(ref, {}).get('damage'))} dmg/run, "
       f"{fmt(pooled.get(ref, {}).get('wins'), 2)} wins/run, "
@@ -630,8 +654,9 @@ def main():
     best = ranked[0] if ranked else None
     if best:
         p()
-        p(f"Highest wins delta: `{best[0]}` ({fmt_s(best[2], 2)} wins/run, "
-          f"{fmt_s(best[3])} dmg/run) — **{best[1]}**.")
+        p(f"Highest wins delta: `{best[0]}` ({fmt_s(best[3], 2)} wins/run, "
+          f"{fmt_s(best[4])} dmg/run) — strict: **{best[1]}**, "
+          f"substantive: **{best[2]}**.")
     return 0