movement ledger: fix two claims in the Batch-1/2 prose

- tfil is 4th of five on round wins, not last (ring is nominally 0.04 lower,
  ns) - the Batch-1 commit message overstates one word; the correction is
  recorded in the ledger rather than rewritten.
- the Batch-2 direct answer quoted three of four CIs excluding 0; it is four of
  four ([+0.04,+0.63], [+0.16,+0.60], [+0.27,+0.89], [+0.22,+0.72]).
- added the cleanest aggression isolation of Batch 1 (ring - ring_notemp, same
  engine and heat field, range weighting alone): +41.9 dmg/run, -0.11 wins/run,
  +12.8 pp incoming hit rate at 236 vs 395 px.
This commit is contained in:
2026-09-26 01:32:28 +02:00
parent 7d3645da5a
commit 44e2d191e3
+13 -4
View File
@@ -51,7 +51,7 @@ better.
> ("melee A/B doc…"). The rules are therefore committed under a neighbour's
> message — they are nonetheless dated before the data: no battle of Batch 1
> had been launched when they were written, and Batch 1's session.json records
> the same commit `1984a78` as the frozen-binary source.`)
> the same commit `1984a78` as the frozen-binary source.
1. **Primary metrics:** damage/run and ROUND WINS. Secondary/explanation only:
damage taken/run, incoming hit rate (enemy hits ÷ enemy shots), achieved mean
@@ -163,6 +163,13 @@ primaries**, so the heat-field retune alone is not what makes `strafe` win
(INFERRED: `ring_notemp` also differs from `tfil` in commit ticks and wall
radiance, so this is evidence against, not a clean isolation).
**The cleanest aggression isolation in the batch** is `ring` − `ring_notemp`
(same engine, same retuned heat field, only the range-weighted tile draw
differs, band 100–200): that lever alone is worth **+41.9 dmg/run** (150.1 vs
108.2), **−0.11 wins/run** (1.18 vs 1.29) and **+12.8 pp** incoming hit rate
(29.42% vs 16.67%) at 236 vs 395 px. Engaging harder converts into damage, never
into wins, and pays with hits.
**Mechanism (MEASURED, and the reason the win is a movement win):** in **216 of
the 219 attributable runs**, our round-win count equals exactly the number of
rounds in which the **opponent's death event** appears — round wins in this
@@ -477,9 +484,11 @@ must be named, `TR_MOVEMENT=strafe` at its shipped range (325 px) has the best
pooled round-win rate of the five arms in Batch 2 (58.5%) and ties `strafe_notilt`
in Batch 1, while `strafe_notilt` is the simpler arm (it has no range steering to
mis-tune). It is better than the shipped `tfil` by a margin that survives the
between-opponent spread: +0.33…+0.58 wins/run, 95% CIs excluding 0 in three of
four measurements, 9/9 + 10/11 + 11/12 decisive opponents in favour, MDE 0.29–0.40
vs observed 0.38–0.58. Rejecting "no change": `tfil`'s win share of 39–41% is
between-opponent spread: +0.33…+0.58 wins/run, **all four measurements with a
95% CI excluding 0** ([+0.04,+0.63], [+0.16,+0.60], [+0.27,+0.89], [+0.22,+0.72]),
and 9/9, 10/12, 11/12 and 10/11 decisive opponents in favour, against an MDE of
0.29–0.40 — i.e. every measurement sits at or above its own detection threshold.
Rejecting "no change": `tfil`'s win share of 39–41% is
**not** the best movement we have measured.
### The analyzer's full report (verbatim)