movement ledger: fix two claims in the Batch-1/2 prose
- tfil is 4th of five on round wins, not last (ring is nominally 0.04 lower, ns) - the Batch-1 commit message overstates one word; the correction is recorded in the ledger rather than rewritten. - the Batch-2 direct answer quoted three of four CIs excluding 0; it is four of four ([+0.04,+0.63], [+0.16,+0.60], [+0.27,+0.89], [+0.22,+0.72]). - added the cleanest aggression isolation of Batch 1 (ring - ring_notemp, same engine and heat field, range weighting alone): +41.9 dmg/run, -0.11 wins/run, +12.8 pp incoming hit rate at 236 vs 395 px.
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@@ -51,7 +51,7 @@ better.
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> ("melee A/B doc…"). The rules are therefore committed under a neighbour's
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> message — they are nonetheless dated before the data: no battle of Batch 1
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> had been launched when they were written, and Batch 1's session.json records
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> the same commit `1984a78` as the frozen-binary source.`)
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> the same commit `1984a78` as the frozen-binary source.
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1. **Primary metrics:** damage/run and ROUND WINS. Secondary/explanation only:
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damage taken/run, incoming hit rate (enemy hits ÷ enemy shots), achieved mean
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@@ -163,6 +163,13 @@ primaries**, so the heat-field retune alone is not what makes `strafe` win
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(INFERRED: `ring_notemp` also differs from `tfil` in commit ticks and wall
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radiance, so this is evidence against, not a clean isolation).
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**The cleanest aggression isolation in the batch** is `ring` − `ring_notemp`
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(same engine, same retuned heat field, only the range-weighted tile draw
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differs, band 100–200): that lever alone is worth **+41.9 dmg/run** (150.1 vs
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108.2), **−0.11 wins/run** (1.18 vs 1.29) and **+12.8 pp** incoming hit rate
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(29.42% vs 16.67%) at 236 vs 395 px. Engaging harder converts into damage, never
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into wins, and pays with hits.
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**Mechanism (MEASURED, and the reason the win is a movement win):** in **216 of
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the 219 attributable runs**, our round-win count equals exactly the number of
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rounds in which the **opponent's death event** appears — round wins in this
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@@ -477,9 +484,11 @@ must be named, `TR_MOVEMENT=strafe` at its shipped range (325 px) has the best
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pooled round-win rate of the five arms in Batch 2 (58.5%) and ties `strafe_notilt`
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in Batch 1, while `strafe_notilt` is the simpler arm (it has no range steering to
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mis-tune). It is better than the shipped `tfil` by a margin that survives the
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between-opponent spread: +0.33…+0.58 wins/run, 95% CIs excluding 0 in three of
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four measurements, 9/9 + 10/11 + 11/12 decisive opponents in favour, MDE 0.29–0.40
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vs observed 0.38–0.58. Rejecting "no change": `tfil`'s win share of 39–41% is
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between-opponent spread: +0.33…+0.58 wins/run, **all four measurements with a
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95% CI excluding 0** ([+0.04,+0.63], [+0.16,+0.60], [+0.27,+0.89], [+0.22,+0.72]),
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and 9/9, 10/12, 11/12 and 10/11 decisive opponents in favour, against an MDE of
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0.29–0.40 — i.e. every measurement sits at or above its own detection threshold.
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Rejecting "no change": `tfil`'s win share of 39–41% is
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**not** the best movement we have measured.
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### The analyzer's full report (verbatim)
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