Adds a per-sample intrinsic-confidence field (GunPrediction.confidence,
threaded through FeedbackEvent/VirtualBullet, populated by Pattern, DecayGF,
KNN, GuessFactor, Tsetlin, TMHorizon) and an offline recorder + analyzer that
reproduce the paper's Figure 2 per gun and its Eq-8 composite.
Measured on 3 held-out tr-bridge DrussGT battles (33k ticks, ~133k samples/gun):
- FAITHFUL: DecayGF (rho +0.133), KNN (+0.090), Pattern (+0.064, weak).
- GuessFactor is ANTI-faithful (rho -0.067); Tsetlin c_max is useless (0.001).
- No pair of guns specialises complementarily: the same gun dominates both
high-confidence slices in every pair.
- Eq-8 alpha-normalised confidence-weighted composite: 18.41% vs Pattern
20.45% (McNemar p=3.1e-126). Faithful-only variant 18.68%, still loses.
Shuffle control passes weakly (composite > shuffle, p=4e-14) so ~0.7pp of
competence is real but ~2pp short. Offline veto: design is dead.
See docs/tmcomposites_gate.md.
Replaces melee_scan in the rack. melee_scan spun the radar at the 45 deg/tick
cap unconditionally, so a full 360 deg revolution took 8 ticks and every enemy
was scanned roughly every 8 ticks. The new module starts with the same full
spin, and once it is SURE it has covered every enemy it sweeps back and forth
over only the minimal covering arc of all enemy bearings.
MEASURED, real melees via the bridge, per-enemy onScannedBot counts:
3-bot melee (2 enemies): 29.6 -> 61.1 scans/100 melee-ticks (2.06x)
4-bot melee (3 enemies): 36.0 -> 75.7 scans/100 melee-ticks (2.10x)
Covering-arc widths observed: mostly <90 deg in the 2-enemy case, up to 240 deg
in the 3-enemy case, so the gain shrinks as the arc widens - and at the
ExitTrackWidthDeg=300 fallback it degenerates to exactly the old full spin, so
there is no loss when narrowing would not help.
TRADEOFF, recorded rather than hidden: a wider arc legitimately takes longer to
traverse, so the freshness window costs 5-7 points (fresh<=16: 93-95% vs
98-100%) and more at fresh<=8 (75-76% vs 97-100%). More scans per enemy, at
slightly staler individual fixes.
DESIGN: acquisition spins 360 until every live known enemy was seen within
FreshnessTicks=16 (two revolutions of slack), no new id appeared, and the live
count matches getEnemyCount(); that must hold FreshStreakTicks=3 consecutive
ticks. Tracking then bang-bang sweeps the wraparound-aware covering arc
(350+10 -> 20 through 0) widened by MarginDeg=20 each end, at up to 45 deg/tick.
Fallbacks return to acquisition: any stale enemy, any new id, or an arc >= 300
deg. Enter 270 / Exit 300 gives 30 deg of hysteresis so it cannot flap.
Adds EnemyInfo.lastSeenTick (additive) so coverage is judged on staleness, not
mere knowledge - without it an enemy that slipped behind the sweep would keep
contributing its own stale bearing, which is self-confirming. The offline range
now round-trips that field from the fixture 'lst'.
COMPANION FIX, and it matters: the radar-mode switch used the TRACKER's known
enemy count, so in melee the bot saw one enemy before scanning the second, locked
to 1v1, and the melee radar never ran at all. Now uses getEnemyCount() (server
truth), so melee mode persists until one enemy is genuinely left.
41 new unit checks (wraparound arcs, straddle at 0/360, single/empty enemies,
the 45 deg/tick cap, every phase transition and fallback). melee_scan is kept
but marked DEPRECATED; nothing in the rack imports it.
Non-regression: 33 gun-harness checks, vbullet metric, power selection, and
12/12 offline==online acceptance all pass.
Four guns cached a whole prediction per tick while predict() is called once
per power bin, so every bin after the first (and the real fired shot, which
shares lastState) reused the power-1.0 lead. Fixed by caching only the
speed-INDEPENDENT derived state and recomputing the lead per requested speed:
- stop_shot: also fixes prevSpeed being written before it was read, which
made abs(speed) < abs(prev) permanently false and the entire
stop-prediction branch unreachable (it was just Linear).
- displacement: the cache key included bulletSpeed, so the guard missed on
all four bins and the 15-tick window advanced ~4x/tick, making the
inferred velocity ~4x too small.
- averaged_lead: tick cache removed outright. pattern_matcher: split into
speed-independent match+path and per-call lead.
FeedbackEvent gains fireTick/powerBin (additive; only virtual_bullets
constructs one) so guns can pair feedback to the exact shot instead of
guessing by coordinates. tsetlin uses it: traces are now keyed exactly by
(fireTick, powerBin) with a 1024-slot ring, and the 10-frame window shifts
at most once per tick (it was shifting ~4-5x/tick, so isWarmedUp tripped
after ~2 ticks).
KNOWN INCOMPLETE: tsetlin still does not diverge from Linear in battle. The
two named bugs are fixed (a 600-tick sim shows trainedShots=2141,
traceMisses=0, and a fixed-input probe converges to a 9.6px correction), but
the TM's clause feedback itself is broken: ~131 of 1740 literals end up
included per clause, so its conjunction never fires. Sweeping TM_S,
TM_N_CLAUSES and a two-branch Type-I update did not change the correction
from 0. Needs a real TM fix or removal, not another bug fix.
First-ever guard tests for the gun selector: common_libs/tests/
test_gun_harness.nim (14 checks, headless, no Java). There were none before,
which is how six broken guns survived a full analysis cycle. Against the
previous HEAD, 5 of these checks FAIL - that is the regression guard.
SirStone