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3 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
SirStone 57b2ac3849 feat(guns): scale-aware power selection (+52% damage); TM classifier gun built, measured, DISABLED
TASK 2 - power selection, a clear win. bestPower used an ABSOLUTE
MinHitRate = 0.40 bar. Measured per-bin virtual rates (rolling-100 fraction)
show no bin ever clears 40%, so 11 of 14 guns were stuck at bin 0 (power 1.0)
even where higher bins were comparable:
  Linear  p1.0 44% p1.5 39% p2.0 30% p3.0 29%   old bin 0 -> new bin 3
  Accel   p1.0 44% p1.5 40% p2.0 26% p3.0 29%   old bin 1 -> new bin 3
  Pattern p1.0 50% p1.5 40% p2.0 27% p3.0 12%   old bin 1 -> new bin 2
Replaced with a scale-aware PowerBarFrac = 0.50 (a dimensionless FRACTION of
the gun's own best bin rate). 13 of 14 selections now pick heavier bullets.
Real effect vs DrussGT (8 rounds x 3 runs): hit rate unchanged (7.56% ->
7.47%) but damage dealt +52% (157 -> 239 per run) and rounds end faster.
Same accuracy, half the shots, half again more damage.

TASK 1 - the TM pattern-classifier gun does NOT earn its slot. It was built as
a mixture of experts with a corrected-Granmo TM as a multi-class gate over
HeadOn/Linear/Circular/WallBounce/Accel, labelled by which expert's prediction
was closest to the actual enemy position (an exact, supervised, per-shot
label - no delayed credit). Offline it loses to the best of its OWN experts on
essentially every fixture, and against DrussGT it cost real performance:
  baseline (path+relative)  7.56% real hit rate, damage 157
  + power fix               7.47%,                 damage 239
  + power fix + TM gun      5.59%,                 damage 133
The gun was selected on 806 ticks and fired 24 real shots at 4.2%.
So the tree ships with EnableTmSelector = false: code and wiring kept intact
for re-enabling, but it is not in the active rack.

Worth recording from the clause dump: the gate DOES latch onto meaningful
structure. On energy-threshold-turner, HeadOn's clauses key on the energy bits
(the rule's own driving variable) while Circular keys on distance/velocity. So
the TM is learning something real and interpretable - it simply cannot beat
'always pick the best expert'. Root cause (INFERRED): the closest-expert label
is noisy because several experts are near-tied, and under the path metric the
winner varies by power bin while the gate sees one shared per-tick input, so a
one-vs-rest gate over a saturated 870-bit clause space has no margin to exploit.
(Zero-padding the 2-frame window was tried first and saturated every clause at
256-755 included literals; alternating the two real frames fixed that.)

Also factors the corrected feedback into an exported tmLearnDir and exports the
encoding/TM primitives; the Tsetlin tests still reproduce the documented
mean=13.8 included literals, so the refactor is behaviour-preserving.

Verified: 33/33 guard checks, tsetlin tests green, metric checks green, new
power-selection guard green (13/14 selections change; relative bar still picks
bin 1 and not bin 3 for a [30,25,12,5]% profile), 12/12 offline==online
acceptance under the shipped default.
2026-09-21 05:19:07 +02:00
SirStone d5061ee215 test(range): restore the 12/12 offline==online proof; measure TM clause readability
Task 1 - the acceptance proof was unrunnable because RecordWorldState was a
compile-time const set to false. It is now a RUNTIME switch
(let RecordWorldState* = existsEnv("TR_RECORD_WORLDSTATE")), default OFF, so
ordinary runs write no fixture, and acceptance_offline_vs_online.nim enables
it for the battle it spawns and clears it afterwards. Restored and run twice:
12/12 deterministic guns match exactly (128-tick and 546-tick battles), with
Tsetlin reported separately as stochastic. Both nimble build variants clean.

Task 2 - does a compact encoding turn the TM's 99.35% into a READABLE rule?
Measured across window sizes (fixed seed, no tuning):

  frames  TEST acc  eff.lits/clause  firing clauses  counterfactual low/high/mean
  10      99.35%    152.8            37              100/24/62.4%
  3       95.94%    54.9             35              96/20/58.6%
  2       99.48%    39.6             38              95/25/60.7%
  1       98.30%    19.2             45              100/24/62.3%

So 2 frames is strictly better than 10 on BOTH axes: +0.13 accuracy for 4x
smaller clauses. The 3-frame dip is non-monotonic and left unexplained rather
than smoothed over.

A readable rule WAS partially recovered. Five clauses carry the exact Gray
form !g10 ^ !g9 ^ !g8; g10 is inert in this data, so the effective rule is the
2-literal proposition !g9 ^ !g8, i.e. energy < 25.6. That is a genuine
threshold in readable propositional form - but at 25.6, NOT the labelled 30,
because 256 is a power-of-two Gray boundary expressible in two literals while
300 needs a longer conjunction. The TM found the nearest SIMPLE threshold.

The honest caveat: that threshold is not the ensemble's decision mechanism.
The counterfactual follow rate (high 24%, mean 62.3%) is statistically
identical at 1, 2 and 10 frames, so compactness did not make the model read
energy - its vote is carried by co-occurring bearing/velocity/heading/wall
literals. Also identified: clauses containing all 11 Gray energy bits are
satisfied at exactly one raw value (50, the dataset floor), so they are
'energy has hit the floor' detectors, not thresholds.

Methodological fix worth keeping: the earlier single-frame counterfactual
wrote energy into all 10 frame slots including the zeroed ones, reviving dead
clauses and producing a spurious 2% high-follow rate. setEnergyFrames now
rewrites only the exposed frames; the corrected figure is 24%.
2026-09-21 00:14:46 +02:00
SirStone 974528d5cf feat(gun_harness): offline gun range, proven equivalent to live play
Gun evaluation previously required a full end-to-end battle (Java server +
battle runner + websocket IPC to 2 bot processes, 50 rounds, ~3.4 min) and
yielded only ~300-900 REAL shots across 13 guns -- far too few to rank
guns, which is why tuning needed many repetitions.

VirtualTracker is already a pure function of (WorldState stream, gun list);
the only reason it needed Java was where WorldState came from. So the range
replays a seq[WorldState] through the SAME tracker: offline and online
scores are the same metric by construction, not an approximation.

ACCEPTANCE TEST (the point of the whole thing): record one live round, replay
it offline, compare per-gun virtual hit rates. 12/12 deterministic guns match
EXACTLY, reproduced twice. Tsetlin is compared separately because tmLearnOne
calls rand(). Getting to 12/12 exposed two real ordering quirks in the live
loop: run() calls go() before the aim/fire block, so tickBullets resolves
against the NEXT tick's scan while the prediction used the previous one; and
if the target dies during that go() the final tick's spawn+resolution is
skipped entirely. The recorder emits an end marker for the second case.
The 5th (selected-gun) predict call was verified to be a no-op.

Measured cost: 8 fixtures (1770 ticks, ~92k virtual bullets, 13 guns) replay
in 2.9 s, ~32k virtual bullets/s -- roughly 70x faster and 100x more samples
than a live gauntlet.

Also adds a per-tick WorldState recorder behind const RecordWorldState
(default off, mirrors the ShotLog idiom) which records the state the bot
ACTUALLY builds, staleness included, rather than true positions -- recording
the latter would hand the guns perfect information and produce flattering
scores.

9 new guard checks (33 total, all passing), including fixture round-trip,
replay determinism, stationary->HeadOn 100%, constant-velocity->Linear>HeadOn,
and the energy-threshold turner crossing at t=41.
2026-09-20 23:44:42 +02:00